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I had a reader e-mail this to me.  I got a good laugh from it:

A United States soldier was attending some college courses between
assignments.  He had completed missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
One of the courses had a professor who was an avowed atheist and a
member of the ACLU.
One day the professor shocked the class when he came in.  He looked to
the ceiling and flatly stated, “God, if you are real, then I want you to
knock me off this platform.  I’ll give you exactly 15 minutes.”  The
lecture room fell silent.  You could hear a pin drop.
Ten minutes went by and the professor proclaimed, “Here I am God.  I’m
still waiting.”
It got down to the last couple of minutes when the soldier got out of
his chair, went up to the professor, and cold-cocked him knocking him
off the platform.  The professor was out cold.  The soldier went back to
his seat and sat there, silently.  The other students were shocked and
stunned and sat there looking on in silence.  The professor eventually
came to, noticeably shaken, looked at the soldier and asked, “What the
hell is the matter with you?  Why did you do that?”
The soldier calmly replied, “God was too busy today protecting America’s
soldiers who are protecting your right to say stupid shit and act like
an asshole.  So, He sent me.”

Not really, they are basically making the same old demands they always do; that they want bi-lateral talks with the US so they can get their pay day for saying they will give up nuclear weapons:

North Korea informed China it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with the communist country, a former South Korean lawmaker said Sunday.

The North also denied speculation that its nuclear test was imminent and said the regime has not raised the alert level of the country’s military, said Jang Sung-min, citing a telephone conversation with an unidentified Chinese diplomatic official.

North Korea warned the Chinese official, however, that it would accelerate its preparations for a nuclear test if the United States moves toward imposing sanctions or launching a military attack, Jang said, citing his contact.

The Chinese official was informed of North Korea’s stance by North Korean officials Sunday afternoon, Jang said.

While this is going on, North Korea has also turned to their lackeys within South Korea to begin lobbying for the US to hold direct talks.  Former President Kim Dae-jung who bribed for $156 million won the Nobel Peace Prize for his failed Sunshine Policy was on CNN’s Talk Asia saying the US needs to hold bi-lateral talks:

South Korea’s former President Kim Dae-jung said that the United States should give North Korea one more chance even though it is on the brink of a nuclear test.

In an interview with CNN’s Talk Asia on Sunday, he urged the U.S. to engage in direct talks with North Korea so that the isolated country could give up its nuclear ambition and come back to the negotiation table.

“Even former U.S. President Ronald Reagan had dialogue with the Soviet Union, which he branded as an `evil empire,”’ Kim told the U.S. 24-hour news channel. “I can hardly understand why the U.S. does not hold talks with North Korea.”

First of all, North Korea is not the equivalent of the Soviet Union.  NK is one of the world’s poorest countries with a ruthless dictator who is trying to blackmail the US into giving him free aid.  The US is treating this as a regional problem that will require a regional solution with the country’s in the region.  That is what the six party talks are for.  What precedent is this going to set if the United States is expected to hold bi-lateral discussions with every two bit dictator in the world?  Here is a chance for major powers in the region like China to step up and show the world their global leadership credentials.

This is basically 1994 all over again.  North Korea needs a deal soon in order to keep the regime a float, but has no intentions of completely scrapping their nuclear weapons program.  Kim Jong-il not only needs the weapons for international prestige, but also for protection from any international attempts at regime removal and to appease the generals in his military that keep him in power.  If a deal is reached the North Koreans will just keep the program secret just like after the 1994 deal until they need more money again and 8 years down the road the US will be doing the same old song dance with these guys once again under a new US administration.

Kim Jong-il might also see the time as right now for a favorable deal because the Republicans are hurting at the polls with the elections coming up and major foreign policy success such as appearing striking a deal on the NK nuclear crisis may help the Republicans.  I think this is just one of many factors driving this crisis but I would be really surprised if President Bush makes any big policy changes in regards to North Korea even if there are political consequences.

North Korea has successfully tested a nuclear bomb. From CNN:

North Korea on Monday claimed it has performed a successful nuclear test, according to that country’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

South Korean government officials also said North Korea performed its first nuclear test, the South’s Yonhap news agency reported.

The apparent nuclear test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (0136 GMT) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, Yonhap reported, citing defense officials.

“The field of scientific research in the DPRK (North Korea’s official name) successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9 … at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation,” KCNA reported.

Late Sunday in Washington, a U.S. military official told CNN that “something clearly has happened,” but the Pentagon was working to fully confirm the report.

Senior U.S. officials said they also believed the test took place, citing seismic data that appeared to show one.

South Korean intelligence officials said a seismic wave of magnitude-3.58 had been detected in North Hamkyung province, according to Yonhap.

“The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA (Korean People’s Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability,” KCNA reported.

I’m not at all surprised that the tested a nuclear weapon, I’m just surprised they tested it so soon. I figured they would at least wait a few months a dangle the threat of testing a nuke in order to see if Washington would be willing to deal. I have always figured the US would not offer Kim Jong-il the bi-lateral deal he has been demanding and I guess Kim must have figured the same thing and has decided to go ahead and test now.

So what does this all mean? Here is my theory. North Korea has never had any intentions of giving up it’s nuclear program, the failure of the 1994 Agreed Framework only confirms this. The North Koreans were happy to appear to give up their ambitions of wanting nuclear weapons in return for international aid while covertly working on them any way and playing nice to the international community. Things changed with the Bush Administration. President Bush’s policy is that the North Koreans will not receive US aid unless it thoroughly without a doubt ends their nuclear weapon program. Bush wasn’t about to cut a deal just to keep the North Koreans quiet and out of the headlines and pass the problem to a future presidential administration that would allow the North Koreans to continue to receive aid while at the same time covertly working on their nuclear weapons program. If Bush had cut a deal with the North Koreans and let’s say a Democratic president takes power in 2008 and the North Korean nuclear issue came up again what do you think that Democratic Administration would be saying about the deal Bush cut with the North Koreans? They would say it is a failure and that is one of the reasons why Bush isn’t dealing.

Now why do the North Koreans want nukes so bad? The North Koreans want nuclear weapons to ensure regime survival from any chance of outside attack. The threat of an outside invasion of North Korea is null and void if they have the ability to nuke Seoul or Tokyo, two of the world’s largest cities. Keep in mind that they do not have that capability yet because they have not miniaturized their nukes to fit on one of their missiles. It probably won’t take them too many more months to do it though. So the positives from this test from Kim Jong-il’s perspective is that he has gained the country international prestige, moved closer to ensuring regime survival at least from international attack, and has won heavy favor from his generals by allowing them to detonate a nuclear weapon.

So what are the potential negatives for Kim? The worst threat would be an attack on North Korea from the US. If an attack on North Korea is just a bombing campaign to destroy his nuclear facilities than this would actually be a positive for him because then he could play the victim of the evil US imperialist card, roll out footage of civilian casualties on CNN, and use the attack to prove his point of why he needs nuclear weapons. So a limited attack on his country would be a major win for him. However, a full scale military attack to remove him would obviously end with his removal. I think this possibility is not likely because a second Korean War would lead to hundreds of thousands of South Korean deaths, hundred of missiles would land on Japanese cities potentially killing thousands of Japanese, and US military casualties would number into the thousands. The casualties from a second Korean War would easily dwarf the number of casualties from the current Iraq War. The highly mountainous Korean terrain is not conducive to the American military. Many battles would be fought by dismounted infantry in hill fights; this is what would lead to the thousands of casualties not to mention the potential of chemical and biological weapons being used. Bottom line any war with North Korea would be a destructive blood bath that the American public is not ready to fight. So this option is pretty much out the window and Kim Jong-il knows it.

The next negative for Kim Jong-il is threat of increased sanctions on his country. He knows that more sanctions are sure to come but is counting on China and South Korea to keep him a float. Kim may be reasoning that China is not willing to cut aid to his country that would lead to it’s collapse because of the refugee and humanitarian crisis that would instantly engulf China before they host the 2008 Olympic Games. The Chinese consider the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing as their coming out party to the world that the Chinese are now truly a global superpower. War and a humanitarian crisis in China could threaten the games that the Chinese have worked so hard to prepare for. Thus Kim Jong-il figures the Chinese will talk tough just to appease the international community but will still give him the aid he needs. Kim also figures that as long as the leftist Roh Moo-hyun administration is in power in South Korea he will still keep getting aid from them as well though as I’ve mentioned before possibly the US worked out a deal with the South Koreans to stop aid to the North in return for the support of Ban Ki-moon as UN Secretary General if the North Koreans conduct a nuclear weapons test. With these two countries still providing him aid he knows his country can with stand any further sanctions that would hit the country. Maybe a couple more million people from the North Korean peasant class will starve to death but judging from Kim’s track record he really doesn’t care. He is only concerned about bringing home the money and power to the military and his regime elite in Pyongyang.

So there are the positives and the negatives and obviously the positives for Kim outweigh the negatives and that is why I felt he would test the bomb; once again the only thing I was surprised by was the timing.

So what happens now? China will probably talk tough, but we will have to actually wait and see if they do anything tangible such as implement real sanctions on the North Koreans. I expect the same thing from South Korea but they will keep the aid going into North Korea. New Japanese Prime Minister Abe will have the hawks in Japan demanding that Japan also develop nuclear weapons which would create an arms race in northeast Asia with possibly South Korea than wanting to develop nuclear weapons as well. The US will get more sanctions implemented on North Korea and pressure China and South Korea to do the same. The US will also continue to to downsize USFK and I expect the hand over of war time control to still happen in 2009 despite the nuclear test. The Democratic Party in the US right now are pissed off that this October surprise out did their own Foley-Hastert-Woodward-leaked intelligence reports, October Surprises before the US mid-term elections though the Democrats will of course claim that Bush is to fault because to them he is at fault for everything. The Republicans on the other hand are all smiles right now since they will probably gain votes from this test and Foley is out of the headlines. As far as the UN, especially with South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon taking over expect nothing, but a resolution implementing increased sanctions and of course lots of rhetoric because that is what the UN is good at.

While all of this is going on North Korea will continue to get by on what little aid it gets and continue to perfect their nuclear weapons technology in the hopes that they can become the Pakistan of northeast Asia.

Lot’s more over at:Marmot’s Hole

Lost Nomad

Korea Liberator

This is receiving way to much air time on US news channels:

A midday incursion Saturday by North Korean troops into the southern side of the no-man’s-land separating North and South Korea only stoked the unease.

South Korean soldiers rattled off 40 warning shots at the five communist troops who crossed the center line of the DMZ, the inter-Korean buffer.

It was unclear whether the North Korean advance was intended as a provocation, or was an attempt to go fishing at a nearby stream, an official at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said on condition of anonymity, citing official policy. No one was hurt, and the North Koreans retreated.

Border incursions by the North Koreans are nothing new.  Usually the North Koreans provoke an incident by firing at the South Koreans first.  This time it appears these soldiers were probably just trying to get a little fishing in since they didn’t fire at the South Koreans.  Who knows but this is definitely not worthy of the amount of news coverage it is getting.  What is even worse is when the US news coverage of this incident is followed up with a North Korea “expert” providing his analysis of how the US should bomb North Korea’s missile sites to prevent a North Korean nuclear attack on the US main land.

With “expert” analysis like this, is it any wonder why Americans appear to be more scared of Kim Jong-il than the people of Seoul who live within artillery range of North Korea?

More over at Nomad on this.  Maybe Frank can provide some fishing tips for the North Koreans.

It looks like the Arirang Taxi company that provides taxi service to USFK troops in Korea will have a little competition on post soon:

A second on-base taxi company soon may serve U.S. military bases in Area I and Area II, according to a top official of the Army and Air Force Exchange Service.

AAFES wants to provide 50 extra taxi cabs on Yongsan Garrison in Seoul and major bases in the Uijeongbu and Dongducheon areas during peak hours on weekdays and during the weekends, said Betty J. O’Brien, AAFES general manager for Korea.

The exchange service also wants to have a formal contingency plan in case of another drivers’ strike, she said Friday.

“This will help make sure our customers are taken care of when they need to be taken care of,” she said. “It’s possible we could have it before Christmas.”

From Yonhap:

 Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is believed to have promised China not to visit a controversial war shine “for the time being,” ahead of his planned summit meetings with China and South Korea, diplomatic sources said Friday.

Abe, who aims to improve ties with the Asian neighbors, will meet China’s President Hu Jintao on Sunday in Beijing and South Korea’s President Roh Moo-hyun on Monday in Seoul, the Japanese government confirmed on Wednesday.

Before accepting the scheduled summit, China demanded Japan’s Abe to promise not to visit the Yasukuni shrine that glorifies Japan’s war criminals before and during World War II, the sources said. The Japanese government responded somewhat positively, saying Abe won’t pray at the shrine for the time being, they said.

Right now Korean politicians are thinking, “Oh Sh__!, We can’t play up the shrine issue anymore to get people worked up against the Japanese and to overlook our own governmental failures.  Well there is still the Dokdo issue we can play up.  Dokdo is Korea!”

More of course at Japundit.

FYI for all you soldiers out there:

In a move officials say acknowledges the fact that women come in different body shapes, the Army has raised its weight standards for females across the board.

The new regulations, which went into effect Monday, allow female soldiers to weigh anywhere from six to 19 pounds more than was previously permitted, depending on their height and age.

By increasing the maximum allowable weights, but not the maximum allowable body fat percentages, the Army is “identifying what’s really out there in society” but not compromising the Army’s standards, Timms said.

For example, women 17 to 20 years old who are 67 inches tall, or 5 feet 7 inches, can now weigh up to 159 pounds, instead of 145 pounds.

A woman that height who is 21 to 27 years old can weigh up to 161 pounds, instead of 149 pounds.

A female soldier who is 28 to 39 years old can now weigh 163, up from 154, and one who is more than 40 years old can weigh up to 166 pounds, instead of 159 pounds.

Maximum allowable body fat percentages for women in the following age groups are: for 17-20, 30 percent; for 21-27, 32 percent; for 28-39, 34 percent; and for women 40 and older, 36 percent.

 This is actually long overdue because often I have seen more women that need to be taped during a weigh-in than men but the vast majority of the women make the body fat percentage.  So basically this new regulation will just make weigh-ins move along faster since not as many females will need to be taped.

Who knows where in Korea this image is from?

The Korea Liberator has an article posted on the Washington Post website concerning the latest nuclear test crisis with North Korea.  Here is a sample of what they have to say:

Count us among those who ardently hope Kim Jong-il conducts a nuclear test.

For decades, highly regarded diplomats have seen Kim Jong-il and his father as men who, but for their brutality and bellicosity, were motivated by the same interests and restraints that would guide normal diplomats were we in their place. Our policies have been shaped by our own concept of what a “rational” North Korean tyrant would do, based on the belief that Kim would rejoin the civilized world in return for incentives.

Go check it out.

Chuseok is supposed to be a happy time of year for Korean families but for some families it is a time painful rememberance.

For background information click here.