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It really was only a matter of time before Jimmy Carter surfaced again due to the latest North Korean crisis.  Carter has surfaced this time in a New York Times editorial which like other editorials from those involved in the failed 1994 Agreed Framework blames Bush for everything going on with North Korea:

Responding to an invitation from President Kim Il-sung of North Korea, and with the approval of President Bill Clinton, I went to Pyongyang and negotiated an agreement under which North Korea would cease its nuclear program at Yongbyon and permit inspectors from the atomic agency to return to the site to assure that the spent fuel was not reprocessed. It was also agreed that direct talks would be held between the two Koreas.

The spent fuel (estimated to be adequate for a half-dozen bombs) continued to be monitored, and extensive bilateral discussions were held. The United States assured the North Koreans that there would be no military threat to them, that it would supply fuel oil to replace the lost nuclear power and that it would help build two modern atomic power plants, with their fuel rods and operation to be monitored by international inspectors. The summit talks resulted in South Korean President Kim Dae-jung earning the 2000 Nobel Peace Prize for his successful efforts to ease tensions on the peninsula.

First of all in June 1994 Carter wrote a letter to Clinton that he was going to Pyongyang with or without Clinton’s approval.  On the advice of Al Gore, Clinton approved the visit if Carter would agree that he was only going as a private citizen and not a US Ambassador.  When Carter visited Pyongyang and cut the deal with then North Korean dictator Kim Il-sung the father of the current leader Kim Jong-il, he informed his contact in the White House of the deal and then proceeded to give a CNN interview announcing the deal.

His White House contact walked into a on going policy meeting with President Clinton and his top advisors to inform Clinton of Carter’s call.  Clinton was about to give a go ahead on a military force build up in Korea along with increased sanctions that would ultimately lead to possibly a naval blockade if North Korea did not give up their nuclear program.  Does this all sound familiar?  It should because it is 1994 all over again today, we just need Carter to go to Pyongyang, and hopefully this time he will stay there.

Carter’s announcement was a bombshell to the White House because somebody acting as a private citizen had taken control of US foreign policy and the White House appeared to be by standers.  People in the meeting actually called Carter’s actions of cutting a deal without White House approval as “near traitorous” and Clinton actually put out an order for people in the meeting to not engage in Carter bashing to media despite their private feelings.

Clinton’s instincts initially was that the North Koreans could not be trusted and only understood force to get them to quit their nuclear program, however Carter’s actions made it politically impossible for him to take action against North Korea when Carter publicly announced on CNN that he had prevented war by cutting a deal with Kim Il-sung.  Attacking a country after publicly announcing that you cut a deal with them never goes over to well internationally or domestically for that matter and Clinton knew it and he was forced to deal.

Additionally the deal was cut with Kim Il-sung who Clinton and even I believe may have been acting in good faith at the time when he agreed to end his nuclear program and allow in IAEA inspectors if the US gave him aid and built two light water reactors.  Kim Il-sung I think was beloved by his people enough that he would have been able to survive any reforms that would have opened up the country.  Thus he saw this deal as opportunity to feed his people and provide them energy, which in turn allowed North Korea to then focus their limited resources on rebuilding a post-Soviet Union economy.

However, Kim Il-sung died a month later after striking the deal with Carter.  Was this just coincidence or did Kim Jong-il have something to do with it?  I for one wouldn’t be surprised if Kim Jong-il and others in the military who wanted the nuclear bomb and resisted opening the country did away with Kim Il-sung and installed Kim Jong-il because he promised to implement the Songun (military first) policy which would ensure the elite status of the North Korean military within North Korean society.

Something else I found disingenuous about Carter’s article was his claim that his 1994 deal led to the 2000 inter-Korean Summit between then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il.  Carter made no mention of the fact that the summit only happened, not because of Carter’s 1994 deal, but because of the $156 million dollar bribe that Kim Dae-jung authorized Hyundai to give to Kim Jong-il in order for the North Koreans to agree to host the summit.

The dishonesty only continues in Carter’s editorial:

But beginning in 2002, the United States branded North Korea as part of an axis of evil, threatened military action, ended the shipments of fuel oil and the construction of nuclear power plants and refused to consider further bilateral talks. In their discussions with me at this time, North Korean spokesmen seemed convinced that the American positions posed a serious danger to their country and to its political regime.

Carter makes no mention of the fact that North Korea cheated on the 1994 Agreed Framework deal and continued a covert nuclear program, which the Bush Administration called them on and to everyones surprise, the North Koreans even admitted to.

The dishonesty in this article only gets worse:

Six-nation talks finally concluded in an agreement last September that called for North Korea to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and for the United States and North Korea to respect each other’s sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize relations. Each side subsequently claimed that the other had violated the agreement. The United States imposed severe financial sanctions and Pyongyang adopted the deeply troubling nuclear option.

Carter leaves out some more critical information by forgetting to mention that the financial sanctions had nothing to do with the six party talks.  The financial sanctions were due to North Korea’s counterfeiting and money laundering of US currency.  Ever wonder why the US$20 dollar bill keeps changing?  It because of North Korean counterfeiting which Carter makes no mention of.

So what does Carter suggest to end the current stand off?  Well implementing pretty much the 1994 Agreed Framework again:

The other option is to make an effort to put into effect the September denuclearization agreement, which the North Koreans still maintain is feasible. The simple framework for a step-by-step agreement exists, with the United States giving a firm and direct statement of no hostile intent, and moving toward normal relations if North Korea forgoes any further nuclear weapons program and remains at peace with its neighbors. Each element would have to be confirmed by mutual actions combined with unimpeded international inspections.

You have to give Carter credit for one thing, he is persistent in wanting to implement failed policies.

As you can see there were various factors that led to the failed 1994 Agreed Framework.  Was it Clinton’s fault?  Even though the policy failed I don’t see it as being Clinton’s fault because due to the circumstances he had no choice but to cut the deal.  This issue has taken on it’s current political context solely because of next months elections.  None of this rhetoric is helpful in actually resolving the crisis but since when have politicians cared more about solving issues over protecting their own political power?

So what do I think it going to happen?  Kim Jong-il counted on sanctions before he decided to test his nuke and knew that the international community would condemn him including China and South Korea.  Even though he would be condemned for the test, Kim Jong-il gambled that China and South Korea would still protect him from sanctions that would lead to the end of his regime like a naval blockade.  I would love to see a naval blockade because I doubt the North Korean regime would last a year if a naval blockade is implemented.  However, all signs are that the South Koreans and Chinese will not support a blockade and I find it unlikely the US would implement a blockade without a UN Security Council Resolution.

So what does this mean?  Well it means that North Korea will get hit by increased sanctions, but China will keep the oil flowing and the South Koreans will keep the food and fertilizer coming in because neither country wants to deal with a collapse North Korea.  China doesn’t want a possible war or a humanitarian crisis to threaten their hosting of the 2008 Olympics and the South Koreans do not want to pay both the financial and social costs that reunifying with North Korea would cost plus the possibility of war would devestate the peninsula.   Plus the North Koreans will be allowed to keep bringing in hard currency through their weapons sales, counterfeiting, and other illicit activities without a naval blockade, which means that the Kim Jong-il regime will survive with more time to develop and perfect their nuclear weapons, while our political leaders aided by the irresponsible US media continue to play politics and blame each other for the crisis, which is just what Kim Jong-il counted on.

Note some great reading on the 1994 Agreed Framework can be read in Don Oberdorfer’s book, The Two Koreas.

Is this supposed to make me scared?

 The Bush administration rejected anew Tuesday direct talks with North Korea and said it would not be intimidated by a reported threat from Pyongyang that it could fire a nuclear-tipped missile unless the U.S. acts to resolve the standoff.

“This is the way North Korea typically negotiates by threat and intimidation,” said U.S. Ambassador John Bolton. “It’s worked for them before. It won’t work for them now.”

The White House said, meanwhile, there is a “remote possibility” that the world never will be able to fully determine whether North Korea succeeded in conducting a nuclear test Monday. While acknowledging that the action was provocative, White House press secretary Tony Snow suggested that it’s possible that the test was something less than it appeared.

(…) 

North Korea stepped up its threats, saying it could fire a nuclear nuclear-tipped missile unless the U.S. acts, the Yonhap news agency reported Tuesday from Beijing. But even if Pyongyang is confirmed to have nuclear weapons, experts say it’s unlikely the North has a bomb design small and light enough to be mounted atop a missile.

Go ahead and fire your stupid missile and watch Pyongyang become a parking lot after our missile defense system intercepts the missile; that’s if the NK missile even makes it off the launch pad.

This is just another indication of how little the North Koreans understand Americans.  Americans do not respond to threats well and if anything it brings people together against a common enemy.  The more threats they make, the more likely the North Koreans will never get the aid deal and security assurances they want because it would be politically impossible for the US government to give them a deal if they are doing it in response to all these threats.

Threats and intimidation may work with South Koreans to get what they want, but it will never work with Americans.

You wouldn’t know the Army recruiting numbers were surging judging by this AP headline, Lower Standards Help Army Recruit More:

 The U.S. Army recruited more than 2,600 soldiers under new lower aptitude standards this year, helping the service beat its goal of 80,000 recruits in the throes of an unpopular war and mounting casualties.

The recruiting mark comes a year after the Army missed its recruitment target by the widest margin since 1979, which had triggered a boost in the number of recruiters, increased bonuses, and changes in standards.

The Army recruited 80,635 soldiers, roughly 7,000 more than last year. Of those, about 70,000 were first-time recruits who had never served before.

According to statistics obtained by The Associated Press, 3.8 percent of the first-time recruits scored below certain aptitude levels. In previous years, the Army had allowed only 2 percent of its recruits to have low aptitude scores. That limit was increased last year to 4 percent, the maximum allowed by the Defense Department.

The Army said all the recruits with low scores had received high school diplomas. In a written statement, the Army said good test scores do not necessarily equate to quality soldiers. Test-taking ability, the Army said, does not measure loyalty, duty, honor, integrity or courage.

This is great news for the Army yet again, so the biased media has to find a way to bash the Army with this lower test standards nonsense.  The Army is expanding thus more soldiers need to be recruited.  That is why the recruitment goal is 7,000 soldiers higher this year than last year because the Army is adding approximately 20,000 soldiers in the next few years, particularly in the infantry.

How well you do on the entry test that this AP article is making such a big deal about determines what job you are eligible for in the Army.  Generally the lower the score, the more likely you will end up in a combat arms occupation like the infantry.  You don’t need to be a test taking genius to figure out how to fire a rifle and throw hand grenades.  Especially when the recruits allowed in who scored low on the entry test all have high school diplomas.  Students who score poorly on an SAT for example are still eligible to attend college if they have a high school diploma or GED, why should they be denied entering the military?

I have always been of the opinion that if someone wants to serve their country they should be given every reasonable opportunity to do so.  However, the US media wants to feed the Vietnam era military stereotype of a military filled with uneducated and poor kids with no other options in life, when in fact the military is becoming increasingly more educated and professional than any time in it’s history.  Plus the media is continuing it’s agenda of undermining the war effort.  Surging recruiting numbers means that the US public is still supporting the war effort.  The media wants and needs the military to miss their recruiting goals in order to support their own political views that the War on Terror and by association President Bush is wrong.
Just think, all these  new recruits joining the Army now, know they are going to war, unlike past years when people may have just been joining for the GI Bill.  The fact that the Army is able to meet it’s recruiting goals while simultaneously expanding the Army is really a tribute to the American public who have entrusted their sons and daughters to the military and to all the Army recruiters out there doing a thankless job with tougher recruiting conditions including being banned from some schools and universities and being attacked by leftists, but yet they continue to do a great job filling the ranks of the US Army.

Some Time In Early 1968 I Was Going Up To Our Q-4
Radar For A Night Radar Registration Mission.  I Was In A Jeep With The
Top Up Next To My Driver.  Just North of Munsan A Bus/truck Passed Us
And Slowed Down, Causing Us To Almost Stop Before It Shot Off Again
Down The Dark Rutted Road.  A Few Minutes Later I Looked Back And
Saw A Head In The Window of The Jeep Top.  I Screamed At My Driver
To Stop And He Did.  As Soon As The Jeep Came To A Halt I Jumped Out
To Find The Spare Tire Lock Cut And All Lug Nuts Gone But One.  It Was
Almost Gone, Too. A Minute Later And Where Would That Spare And
Slicky Boy Have Rolled To? Submitted by ; 1Lt Gene P. Moser     
                          HHB 5/38 Arty              
                          Korea, 1967/68
This slicky boy story was from Korea, A Tour of Duty.
 If you have your own slicky boy story to share e-mail me your story at gikoreaonline@yahoo.com and I will be happy to post it.

First of all some are not even sure if this explosion was even a nuclear blast:

“We have assessed that the explosion in North Korea was a sub-kiloton explosion,” said the intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. He added, “We don’t know, in fact, whether it was a nuclear explosion.” He spoke as intelligence analysts in Washington were in the early stages of assessing the explosion.

A one-kiloton blast would be extremely small for a nuclear weapon. But regardless of the size of the blast, the North Korean announcement reverberated throughout the world of diplomacy, and seemed likely to be felt in American domestic politics as well. There were suggestions, moreover, that the Communist state might be preparing a second test.

That’s right folks there might be another test either today or in the coming days. Could this be a sign that their first test wasn’t as successful as they claim?

France has been even bold enough to say that the test might have failed:

France estimated it as merely the equivalent of about 500 tons of TNT, and did not confirm that it was the result of a nuclear device, The Associated Press reported.

Russia tends to think the test was a success:

Russia’s defense minister, Mr. Ivanov, said that the Russian military had confirmed the test and estimated its force at somewhere between 5 and 15 kilotons — much larger than estimates from South Korea.

Predictably nations around the world have condemned the North Korean nuclear test. Even Venezuela condemned the nuclear test, however one country didn’t:

Iran, which is already at odds with the United Nations Security Council over its own nuclear program, stood out from the general mood of condemnation. Its state-run radio today blamed pressure from the United States for North Korea’s decision to test, A.P. reported, calling it “a reaction to America’s threats and humiliations.

Pressure? Like enforcing our counterfeiting laws and allowing North Korea international aid so they can use their scarce resouces to build nuclear weapons? How would Iran like the North Koreans counterfeiting their money? I do think this test is not good for Iran because if quick and decisive action is taken on North Korea the global community may wrap Iran into any resolutions to come in stopping the development of nuclear weapons.

Here is what the US President George Bush had to say:

President Bush on Monday said North Korea’s claim that it has tested a nuclear weapon is a threat to international peace and said the world “will respond.”

“The transfer of nuclear weapons to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States,” Bush said. “And we would hold North Korea fully accountable to the consequences of such action.”

Bush said the U.S. was still trying to verify North Korea’s claims that it had tested a nuclear weapon on Monday.

Here is what US Democrats had to say:

Senate Democrats quickly condemned North Korea, but they criticized the Bush administration as well.

The Democratic leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, assailed North Korea for its “reckless and counterproductive actions.” But he asserted that the Bush administration has been in a “state of denial” about North Korea, in part because the administration has been “distracted by Iraq and parayzed by internal divisions.” A comprehensive review of American policy toward North Korea is essential, the senator said.

Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut said the administration had “wasted the last five-plus years sitting on the sidelines” and must now use its influence with China and South Korea to bring the North to the table. Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts said the administration “must go into diplomatic overdrive” and work with its allies in the region. And Senator Charles Schumer of New York said that, in addition to undertaking a diplomatic offensive, the United States must develop nuclear-detection devices as soon as possible.

“North Korea going nuclear shows how much we need allies to succeed in the war on terror,” Mr. Schumer said.

“State of Denial” is new the Democratic catch phrase after the name of Bob Woodward’s new book critical of the Bush Administration. I guess the “Culture of Corruption” catch phrase just wasn’t cutting it anymore. So what review of policy do these Democrats want? Give Kim Jong-il his pay day that he has been demanding? That was tried in 1994 and didn’t work. Then of course Senator Kennedy uses the other Democratic catch phrase, “work with our allies”. If there is any issue that the US government has worked with allies on, it is this one. The US has consistently made it a policy to deal with North Korea in the context of the six party talks so that regional allies in the area were involved in resolving the crisis. Now the Democrats are coming out and saying we need to work with our allies when before they were blasting Bush about not holding bi-lateral talks with Kim Jong-il. Then Schumer talking about developing nuclear detection devices I can only assume he is referring to nuclear detection devices in all of the US ports so North Korea can’t send a boat into New York and nuke it as absurd of a scenario that, that is.

So what should the US do? Well you can post your opinion and read many others over at the New York Times Blog. The responses are definitely all over the place from people wanting to attack North Korea, which is easy to say when you wouldn’t be the person crossing the DMZ to do it, others saying that Bush will nuke North Korea in order to win more votes for the Republicans, more saying that Bush created this nuclear crisis to win votes as well (that Karl Rove sure is clever), and a Korean commenter even complained that the Sea of Japan is really the East Sea. In a time of crisis you can always count on a VANKer to remind us what is really important.

Looks like a UN resolution condemning North Korea is in the works that includes a very provactive naval blockade of North Korea to inspect all ships entering and exiting the country:

The United States circulated a draft resolution Monday to U.N. Security Council nations calling for stiff weapons sanctions and other restrictions on North Korea following its claim to have conducted a nuclear test.

The United States is suggesting international inspections of any cargo going into or out of the reclusive, communist country.

Washington also is proposing a U.N. embargo on any goods or materials that could be used in Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.

Security Council members will resume closed-door discussions of the proposals Tuesday.

The council voted unanimously Monday for a statement opposing North Korea’s reported test, but it is unclear whether the council will favor economic sanctions.

John Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said he was “strongly encouraged by the mood of the council.”

“No one even came close to defending it,” Bolton said.

Japan also added its own proposals to deny North Korean ships and planes permission to enter other territories, to ban the import of any North Korean products and to ban travel by high-level North Korean officials.

The U.S. draft calls for an overall arms embargo, prohibitions on any financial transactions that might support missile activities, a freeze on any assets related to North Korea’s weapons programs, measures to prevent counterfeiting by North Korea and a ban on luxury goods.

The draft also calls for North Korea to cease any missile and nuclear-related activity and return to the six party talks.

If the resolution passes with the implementation of a naval blockade and a full embargo of the country, both the South Koreans and the US better be prepared for a possible confict.  I don’t think the North Koreans would wage war from the start of the blockade but I would expect them to conduct smaller scale actions such as DMZ shootouts, West Sea naval clashes, or even terrorist style attacks in South Korea in order to pressure the South Koreans to get the blockade lifted.  They will also simultaneously play up the humanitarian crisis of the sanctions to the global media and the global media will probably fall for it, it worked for Hezbollah why not North Korea too?

Over the course of an entire year I don’t think the North Korean regime could survive a full embargo.  When it reaches the point that the regime is on the verge of collapse what do they have to lose by going to war?  If the embargo is implemented the US and it’s allies better be prepared for possibly a bloody war.  Is the US and South Korean publics ready for a bloody war or would they rather just appease the North Koreans, work out a deal, and get back to the status quo?  The coming months will tell.

Another possibility is that a military coup happens in North Korea and Kim Jong-il is replaced.  A new leader takes over, works out a face saving deal for all sides, and begins a real process towards reunification.  Maybe US and South Korean intelligence knows something that the public doesn’t.  Then there is always the possibility China could take matters into their own hands and move in and occupy North Korea on their own accord.

Who knows but one thing you can count on is that North Korea will remain very unpredictable and the coming months would be very interesting.

I had a reader e-mail this to me.  I got a good laugh from it:

A United States soldier was attending some college courses between
assignments.  He had completed missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
One of the courses had a professor who was an avowed atheist and a
member of the ACLU.
One day the professor shocked the class when he came in.  He looked to
the ceiling and flatly stated, “God, if you are real, then I want you to
knock me off this platform.  I’ll give you exactly 15 minutes.”  The
lecture room fell silent.  You could hear a pin drop.
Ten minutes went by and the professor proclaimed, “Here I am God.  I’m
still waiting.”
It got down to the last couple of minutes when the soldier got out of
his chair, went up to the professor, and cold-cocked him knocking him
off the platform.  The professor was out cold.  The soldier went back to
his seat and sat there, silently.  The other students were shocked and
stunned and sat there looking on in silence.  The professor eventually
came to, noticeably shaken, looked at the soldier and asked, “What the
hell is the matter with you?  Why did you do that?”
The soldier calmly replied, “God was too busy today protecting America’s
soldiers who are protecting your right to say stupid shit and act like
an asshole.  So, He sent me.”

Not really, they are basically making the same old demands they always do; that they want bi-lateral talks with the US so they can get their pay day for saying they will give up nuclear weapons:

North Korea informed China it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with the communist country, a former South Korean lawmaker said Sunday.

The North also denied speculation that its nuclear test was imminent and said the regime has not raised the alert level of the country’s military, said Jang Sung-min, citing a telephone conversation with an unidentified Chinese diplomatic official.

North Korea warned the Chinese official, however, that it would accelerate its preparations for a nuclear test if the United States moves toward imposing sanctions or launching a military attack, Jang said, citing his contact.

The Chinese official was informed of North Korea’s stance by North Korean officials Sunday afternoon, Jang said.

While this is going on, North Korea has also turned to their lackeys within South Korea to begin lobbying for the US to hold direct talks.  Former President Kim Dae-jung who bribed for $156 million won the Nobel Peace Prize for his failed Sunshine Policy was on CNN’s Talk Asia saying the US needs to hold bi-lateral talks:

South Korea’s former President Kim Dae-jung said that the United States should give North Korea one more chance even though it is on the brink of a nuclear test.

In an interview with CNN’s Talk Asia on Sunday, he urged the U.S. to engage in direct talks with North Korea so that the isolated country could give up its nuclear ambition and come back to the negotiation table.

“Even former U.S. President Ronald Reagan had dialogue with the Soviet Union, which he branded as an `evil empire,”’ Kim told the U.S. 24-hour news channel. “I can hardly understand why the U.S. does not hold talks with North Korea.”

First of all, North Korea is not the equivalent of the Soviet Union.  NK is one of the world’s poorest countries with a ruthless dictator who is trying to blackmail the US into giving him free aid.  The US is treating this as a regional problem that will require a regional solution with the country’s in the region.  That is what the six party talks are for.  What precedent is this going to set if the United States is expected to hold bi-lateral discussions with every two bit dictator in the world?  Here is a chance for major powers in the region like China to step up and show the world their global leadership credentials.

This is basically 1994 all over again.  North Korea needs a deal soon in order to keep the regime a float, but has no intentions of completely scrapping their nuclear weapons program.  Kim Jong-il not only needs the weapons for international prestige, but also for protection from any international attempts at regime removal and to appease the generals in his military that keep him in power.  If a deal is reached the North Koreans will just keep the program secret just like after the 1994 deal until they need more money again and 8 years down the road the US will be doing the same old song dance with these guys once again under a new US administration.

Kim Jong-il might also see the time as right now for a favorable deal because the Republicans are hurting at the polls with the elections coming up and major foreign policy success such as appearing striking a deal on the NK nuclear crisis may help the Republicans.  I think this is just one of many factors driving this crisis but I would be really surprised if President Bush makes any big policy changes in regards to North Korea even if there are political consequences.

North Korea has successfully tested a nuclear bomb. From CNN:

North Korea on Monday claimed it has performed a successful nuclear test, according to that country’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

South Korean government officials also said North Korea performed its first nuclear test, the South’s Yonhap news agency reported.

The apparent nuclear test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (0136 GMT) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, Yonhap reported, citing defense officials.

“The field of scientific research in the DPRK (North Korea’s official name) successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9 … at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation,” KCNA reported.

Late Sunday in Washington, a U.S. military official told CNN that “something clearly has happened,” but the Pentagon was working to fully confirm the report.

Senior U.S. officials said they also believed the test took place, citing seismic data that appeared to show one.

South Korean intelligence officials said a seismic wave of magnitude-3.58 had been detected in North Hamkyung province, according to Yonhap.

“The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA (Korean People’s Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability,” KCNA reported.

I’m not at all surprised that the tested a nuclear weapon, I’m just surprised they tested it so soon. I figured they would at least wait a few months a dangle the threat of testing a nuke in order to see if Washington would be willing to deal. I have always figured the US would not offer Kim Jong-il the bi-lateral deal he has been demanding and I guess Kim must have figured the same thing and has decided to go ahead and test now.

So what does this all mean? Here is my theory. North Korea has never had any intentions of giving up it’s nuclear program, the failure of the 1994 Agreed Framework only confirms this. The North Koreans were happy to appear to give up their ambitions of wanting nuclear weapons in return for international aid while covertly working on them any way and playing nice to the international community. Things changed with the Bush Administration. President Bush’s policy is that the North Koreans will not receive US aid unless it thoroughly without a doubt ends their nuclear weapon program. Bush wasn’t about to cut a deal just to keep the North Koreans quiet and out of the headlines and pass the problem to a future presidential administration that would allow the North Koreans to continue to receive aid while at the same time covertly working on their nuclear weapons program. If Bush had cut a deal with the North Koreans and let’s say a Democratic president takes power in 2008 and the North Korean nuclear issue came up again what do you think that Democratic Administration would be saying about the deal Bush cut with the North Koreans? They would say it is a failure and that is one of the reasons why Bush isn’t dealing.

Now why do the North Koreans want nukes so bad? The North Koreans want nuclear weapons to ensure regime survival from any chance of outside attack. The threat of an outside invasion of North Korea is null and void if they have the ability to nuke Seoul or Tokyo, two of the world’s largest cities. Keep in mind that they do not have that capability yet because they have not miniaturized their nukes to fit on one of their missiles. It probably won’t take them too many more months to do it though. So the positives from this test from Kim Jong-il’s perspective is that he has gained the country international prestige, moved closer to ensuring regime survival at least from international attack, and has won heavy favor from his generals by allowing them to detonate a nuclear weapon.

So what are the potential negatives for Kim? The worst threat would be an attack on North Korea from the US. If an attack on North Korea is just a bombing campaign to destroy his nuclear facilities than this would actually be a positive for him because then he could play the victim of the evil US imperialist card, roll out footage of civilian casualties on CNN, and use the attack to prove his point of why he needs nuclear weapons. So a limited attack on his country would be a major win for him. However, a full scale military attack to remove him would obviously end with his removal. I think this possibility is not likely because a second Korean War would lead to hundreds of thousands of South Korean deaths, hundred of missiles would land on Japanese cities potentially killing thousands of Japanese, and US military casualties would number into the thousands. The casualties from a second Korean War would easily dwarf the number of casualties from the current Iraq War. The highly mountainous Korean terrain is not conducive to the American military. Many battles would be fought by dismounted infantry in hill fights; this is what would lead to the thousands of casualties not to mention the potential of chemical and biological weapons being used. Bottom line any war with North Korea would be a destructive blood bath that the American public is not ready to fight. So this option is pretty much out the window and Kim Jong-il knows it.

The next negative for Kim Jong-il is threat of increased sanctions on his country. He knows that more sanctions are sure to come but is counting on China and South Korea to keep him a float. Kim may be reasoning that China is not willing to cut aid to his country that would lead to it’s collapse because of the refugee and humanitarian crisis that would instantly engulf China before they host the 2008 Olympic Games. The Chinese consider the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing as their coming out party to the world that the Chinese are now truly a global superpower. War and a humanitarian crisis in China could threaten the games that the Chinese have worked so hard to prepare for. Thus Kim Jong-il figures the Chinese will talk tough just to appease the international community but will still give him the aid he needs. Kim also figures that as long as the leftist Roh Moo-hyun administration is in power in South Korea he will still keep getting aid from them as well though as I’ve mentioned before possibly the US worked out a deal with the South Koreans to stop aid to the North in return for the support of Ban Ki-moon as UN Secretary General if the North Koreans conduct a nuclear weapons test. With these two countries still providing him aid he knows his country can with stand any further sanctions that would hit the country. Maybe a couple more million people from the North Korean peasant class will starve to death but judging from Kim’s track record he really doesn’t care. He is only concerned about bringing home the money and power to the military and his regime elite in Pyongyang.

So there are the positives and the negatives and obviously the positives for Kim outweigh the negatives and that is why I felt he would test the bomb; once again the only thing I was surprised by was the timing.

So what happens now? China will probably talk tough, but we will have to actually wait and see if they do anything tangible such as implement real sanctions on the North Koreans. I expect the same thing from South Korea but they will keep the aid going into North Korea. New Japanese Prime Minister Abe will have the hawks in Japan demanding that Japan also develop nuclear weapons which would create an arms race in northeast Asia with possibly South Korea than wanting to develop nuclear weapons as well. The US will get more sanctions implemented on North Korea and pressure China and South Korea to do the same. The US will also continue to to downsize USFK and I expect the hand over of war time control to still happen in 2009 despite the nuclear test. The Democratic Party in the US right now are pissed off that this October surprise out did their own Foley-Hastert-Woodward-leaked intelligence reports, October Surprises before the US mid-term elections though the Democrats will of course claim that Bush is to fault because to them he is at fault for everything. The Republicans on the other hand are all smiles right now since they will probably gain votes from this test and Foley is out of the headlines. As far as the UN, especially with South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon taking over expect nothing, but a resolution implementing increased sanctions and of course lots of rhetoric because that is what the UN is good at.

While all of this is going on North Korea will continue to get by on what little aid it gets and continue to perfect their nuclear weapons technology in the hopes that they can become the Pakistan of northeast Asia.

Lot’s more over at:Marmot’s Hole

Lost Nomad

Korea Liberator

This is receiving way to much air time on US news channels:

A midday incursion Saturday by North Korean troops into the southern side of the no-man’s-land separating North and South Korea only stoked the unease.

South Korean soldiers rattled off 40 warning shots at the five communist troops who crossed the center line of the DMZ, the inter-Korean buffer.

It was unclear whether the North Korean advance was intended as a provocation, or was an attempt to go fishing at a nearby stream, an official at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said on condition of anonymity, citing official policy. No one was hurt, and the North Koreans retreated.

Border incursions by the North Koreans are nothing new.  Usually the North Koreans provoke an incident by firing at the South Koreans first.  This time it appears these soldiers were probably just trying to get a little fishing in since they didn’t fire at the South Koreans.  Who knows but this is definitely not worthy of the amount of news coverage it is getting.  What is even worse is when the US news coverage of this incident is followed up with a North Korea “expert” providing his analysis of how the US should bomb North Korea’s missile sites to prevent a North Korean nuclear attack on the US main land.

With “expert” analysis like this, is it any wonder why Americans appear to be more scared of Kim Jong-il than the people of Seoul who live within artillery range of North Korea?

More over at Nomad on this.  Maybe Frank can provide some fishing tips for the North Koreans.