Everyone be safe out there this Friday the 13th.
If North Korea does not even bother showing up to the APEC Summit, that is an even clear signal they do not want to meet with the United States:
North Korea is unlikely to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to be held in China next week, a South Korean presidential official said Thursday.
“It would be difficult to say there is zero possibility of talks (between North Korea and the United States), but I think the probability might not be high,” the official said when asked about the possibility of North Korea attending multilateral diplomatic events or holding talks with Washington.
The North is, in particular, unlikely to attend next week’s APEC summit, the official said on condition of anonymity, adding the chances of talks between the two sides during the summit are slim.
You can read more at the link, but like I have been saying there is little incentive for Kim Jong-un to meet with Trump and take the risk of upsetting his Russian benefactors. North Korea’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought in much needed foreign currency, advanced military technology, and real world military experience. I don’t see Kim Jong-un wanting to risk upsetting the good thing he has going on right now with the Russians to pursue talks with the Trump administration that could very easily go nowhere.
I doubt Iran will do anything to target the Cheonghae unit because I think it would lead to broad international condemnation and likely an increased military response from the ROK:
Korea is facing a diplomatic challenge in convincing Iran that the Cheonghae Unit’s expanded mission closer to the Strait of Hormuz is not an intervention in the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, as the Middle Eastern country warned Korea could be “portrayed as an accomplice” of U.S. military attacks.
Although Korea’s defense authorities reiterated that the unit’s expanded duties do not cover the strait but rather are aimed at protecting Korean vessels from piracy, experts say it seems Seoul’s message has not been delivered as intended. This raises concerns that Iran could view the move as entry into the war and lead to potential clashes.
You can read more at the link.
Here is what an incoming Korea-American Congressman thinks of Trump’s Korea policies:
U.S. Representative-elect Dan Koh (D-MA) speaks during a House Progressive Caucus news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Nov. 8. Reuters-Yonhap
Korean American Congressman-elect Dan Koh expressed concern Wednesday over the state of the South Korea-U.S. alliance under President Donald Trump, pledging to help restore bilateral ties while questioning the prospects of productive diplomacy between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Koh, a Democrat who won a House seat representing Massachusetts in last week’s midterm elections, made the remarks during a press conference hosted by the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus in Washington.
“I’m very concerned about the relationship,” Koh said, stressing that the alliance should remain strong regardless of whether a Republican or Democratic president occupies the White House.
(……..)
“So I will be doing everything I can to be restoring the alliance that I felt was thriving under Joe Biden, where I worked in the Biden White House,” he said.
Asked about the possibility of Trump meeting North Korean leader Kim during his upcoming Asia trip, Koh said he supported diplomacy with North Korea but doubted that the president’s approach would produce constructive results for either South Korea or the United States.
“I do not think that this is a president who’s going to look for a productive, peaceful progress forward between South and North Korea,” Koh said. “I think he’s looking for notes on how to be a dictator, and I don’t think that we should be playing that game.”
You can read more at the link, but the Trump administration’s North Korea outreach may lead to nothing, but I think it is fair to also ask what did the Biden administration accomplish with their North Korea policy?
Look who has popped up in the media again to push an anti-Trump narrative:
Korea’s push to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of its military is not just an attempt to reclaim military sovereignty, but a necessary response to a fundamental shift in the United States’ foreign and security policy, according to Moon Chung-in, a former presidential special adviser.
In an interview with The Korea Times on Tuesday, Moon, currently a professor emeritus at Yonsei University, argued that President Lee Jae Myung’s pursuit of OPCON transfer comes in line with Washington’s growing expectation that Seoul assume primary responsibility for its own defense, rather than the self-reliant defense agenda set by former President Roh Moo-hyun.
“The U.S. is changing, but we are still clinging to the old America. The old America is gone,” Moon said.
He pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated demands that Korea shoulder a greater share of its defense burden. Under such an arrangement, Korean forces would take the lead in conventional defense against North Korea, while U.S. forces would provide complementary capabilities in areas where Seoul remains relatively weak, including air and naval capabilities, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — as well as extended nuclear deterrence.
“Discussions would be needed, but OPCON transfer could eventually lead to a parallel command structure, similar to Japan’s arrangement with the U.S.,” he said.
You can read more at the link.
