Naval Blockade Coming to North Korea?

Looks like a UN resolution condemning North Korea is in the works that includes a very provactive naval blockade of North Korea to inspect all ships entering and exiting the country:

The United States circulated a draft resolution Monday to U.N. Security Council nations calling for stiff weapons sanctions and other restrictions on North Korea following its claim to have conducted a nuclear test.

The United States is suggesting international inspections of any cargo going into or out of the reclusive, communist country.

Washington also is proposing a U.N. embargo on any goods or materials that could be used in Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.

Security Council members will resume closed-door discussions of the proposals Tuesday.

The council voted unanimously Monday for a statement opposing North Korea’s reported test, but it is unclear whether the council will favor economic sanctions.

John Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said he was “strongly encouraged by the mood of the council.”

“No one even came close to defending it,” Bolton said.

Japan also added its own proposals to deny North Korean ships and planes permission to enter other territories, to ban the import of any North Korean products and to ban travel by high-level North Korean officials.

The U.S. draft calls for an overall arms embargo, prohibitions on any financial transactions that might support missile activities, a freeze on any assets related to North Korea’s weapons programs, measures to prevent counterfeiting by North Korea and a ban on luxury goods.

The draft also calls for North Korea to cease any missile and nuclear-related activity and return to the six party talks.

If the resolution passes with the implementation of a naval blockade and a full embargo of the country, both the South Koreans and the US better be prepared for a possible confict.  I don’t think the North Koreans would wage war from the start of the blockade but I would expect them to conduct smaller scale actions such as DMZ shootouts, West Sea naval clashes, or even terrorist style attacks in South Korea in order to pressure the South Koreans to get the blockade lifted.  They will also simultaneously play up the humanitarian crisis of the sanctions to the global media and the global media will probably fall for it, it worked for Hezbollah why not North Korea too?

Over the course of an entire year I don’t think the North Korean regime could survive a full embargo.  When it reaches the point that the regime is on the verge of collapse what do they have to lose by going to war?  If the embargo is implemented the US and it’s allies better be prepared for possibly a bloody war.  Is the US and South Korean publics ready for a bloody war or would they rather just appease the North Koreans, work out a deal, and get back to the status quo?  The coming months will tell.

Another possibility is that a military coup happens in North Korea and Kim Jong-il is replaced.  A new leader takes over, works out a face saving deal for all sides, and begins a real process towards reunification.  Maybe US and South Korean intelligence knows something that the public doesn’t.  Then there is always the possibility China could take matters into their own hands and move in and occupy North Korea on their own accord.

Who knows but one thing you can count on is that North Korea will remain very unpredictable and the coming months would be very interesting.