The “success” of the Sunshine Policy continues. From the Chosun Ilbo:
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Tuesday that “the field of scientific research†in the North will conduct a nuclear test in the future “under conditions where safety is firmly guaranteed.†The statement was published simultaneously via Korean Central Television Station, the North’s only nationwide TV network, the official Korean Central News Agency and Korean Central Broadcasting Station at 6 p.m. The ministry said the present situation, “in which the U.S. moves to isolate and stifle†North Korea has reached a stage “beyond extremity,†with the result that the North “can no longer remain an onlooker to the developments.†The statement says the U.S.’ “extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure compel [the North] to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering its nuclear deterrent, as a corresponding measure for defense.â€
It will be interesting to see what excuses the South Korean government comes up with next for the North Koreans. I’m sure it will be among the lines of, “It’s all America’s fault” and “Oh, yeah Japan too!”
Well here is what the US government has to say about this:
The United States warned a North Korean nuclear test “would pose an unacceptable threat to peace and stability” and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations raised the issue during a Security Council meeting. The council agreed to hold further discussions on Wednesday after consulting capitals.
I wonder if all the so called former Clinton officials Korea experts will come out of the woodwork again and make the ridiculous demands that the US attack North Korea like they did before July’s failed missile tests?
Here is my some what informed opinion of what to do. I look at this declaration of conducting a nuclear test as a sign of success. Why you ask? Because it is causing the North Koreans to show their hand. If the US gave into the North Korean demands before July’s missile test the US would have never known how far behind the North Koreans were in developing a ICBM that could hit the US. Now the US does know. Plus the US gained a huge political win because the world could no longer deny North Korea’s hostile intentions and a new resolution was passed that placed additional sanctions on North Korea.
The US should take the same stand on the nuclear test, let them show their hand. Worst case scenario is that the test is successful and the US gains an even stronger political advantage on the North to even further isolate the regime. A nuclear test may even be enough for the South Koreans to finally quit making excuses for the North and finally scrap the failed bribery program Sunshine Policy. The best case scenario is that the test fails and American intelligence analysts can make a good determination of how far along in nuclear weapons development the North Koreans really are. Plus the US would still gain a stronger political position because a failed nuclear test is still a sign of hostile intentions which will still lead to increased isolation of the North Korean regime.
Now what about the timing of this? It was well known for the last couple of months that North Korea has been making preparations for a nuclear test. I think the announcement of Ban Ki-moon becoming the next UN Secretary General led to the North Korean announcement just to take Ban out of the international headlines. The North Koreans have a long history of doing this; just look at recent history. Seoul gets the 1988 Olympics and North Korea bombs a South Korean airliner. Seoul hosts the 2002 World Cup, North Korea attacks and kills South Korean naval personnel in the Yellow Sea. They could also be using this to test Ban about what stance he would take with North Korea on issues such as the nuclear program and human rights once he is the Secretary General.
However, with anything concerning North Korea who the hell knows what their up to, but I know one thing appeasement or a milistary strike would be playing right into Pyongyang’s hands.
You can read more on this over at the Marmot’s Hole as well as TKL.


