I am not sure how much more sternly the ROK can respond to North Korean provocations, but I guess we will soon find out:
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo vowed a stern response to any North Korean provocation, Saturday, as the nation observed the 72nd anniversary of the outbreak of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Korea Times
In a speech during a ceremony marking the anniversary, he said the North’s recent missile launches and nuclear weapon test preparations have escalated tensions beyond the Korean Peninsula and are posing a threat to international peace.
You can read more at the link.
Here is one view on why North Korea hasn’t conducted their long predicted nuclear test:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has yet to press the nuclear button, despite urgent warnings from South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities that the North has completed preparations for another nuclear test.
Korea Times
Diplomatic observers agree that a nuclear test is still imminent. But they believe the delay may be due to pressure from China or because Pyongyang is weighing the possible political repercussions.
Citing comments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Eighth Workers’ Party Conference in January 2021 that his country will enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities, as well as the 31 missiles launched so far this year and the reconstruction of its nuclear test site, Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, said the reclusive country is prepared for a seventh nuclear test.
However, DeTrani said pressure from China may be behind the delayed nuclear test, because increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula with South Korea and the United States is not in the best interests of Beijing.
You can read more at the link, but it is believed that Emperor President Xi has too much on his plate right now to deal with increased tensions on the Korean peninsula if a nuclear test was to happen.
Here is an interesting update to the ROK fishery official that was murdered by North Korean soldiers when they found him floating in the Yellow Sea two years ago:
The chief of the Korea Coast Guard apologized Wednesday for “causing misunderstanding,” days after the organization overturned its previous announcement that a fisheries official killed by North Korea in 2020 was attempting to defect to the North.
Last week, the Coast Guard and the defense ministry announced they have not found any circumstances backing the probe results from two years ago, reversing from their previous stance and apologizing to the bereaved family.
The 47-year-old official was fatally shot by the North’s military on Sept. 22, 2020, near the inter-Korean sea border in the Yellow Sea, after going missing the previous day while on duty on board a fishery inspection boat. The Coast Guard and the defense ministry announced at the time he could have been attempting to defect to the North. (……….)
On Wednesday, the family of the late fisheries official lodged criminal complaints against three of former President Moon Jae-in’s secretaries, including former National Security Advisor Suh Hoon, to hold them accountable for their beloved’s death. The family accused the then Moon administration of doing “nothing” to save him.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
ROK Drop favorite Andrei Lankov thinks that North Korea is building their nuclear weapons program to forcefully reunite the peninsula and the Hankyoreh disagrees with this assessment:
In a recent interview with the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, Kookmin University professor Andrei Lankov said that North Korea has “had great success with focusing all its national capabilities on developing nuclear weapons and missiles.” He went on to say that North Korea’s plans for a forced reunification under communism are “not a dream, but a reality.”
As a basis for that prediction, he explained, “If the US were to fight to protect Seoul, the US president would have to consider the possibilities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, or New York suffering multiple North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strikes that cause countless casualties.” (……)
Also, how would the US react to North Korea threatening to strike its major cities with ICBMs to force it to stay out of the situation? Would it bow to those threats in order to avoid suffering its own losses?We don’t need to think too hard to find the answers. The South Korea-US alliance would respond to the North’s threat of nuclear strikes by showing their ability and willingness to retaliate forcefully. If the North actually did use tactical nuclear weapons, it would respond with massive retaliation.
Hankyoreh
You can read much more at the link, but I actually agree some what with both viewpoints. As things stand now North Korea will not use its nuclear weapons to forcibly reunite the peninsula because of the massive retaliation they would face and US missile defenses that mitigates their ICBM threats.
However this may not be the case in the future. The Kim regime has clearly been working to undermine the US-ROK alliance, most notably by pushing for the Korean War peace treaty during the prior Moon administration. If the US agreed to a peace treaty then that draws into question the existence of the US-ROK alliance. Any effort to forcibly reunite the peninsula requires the Kim regime to break up the US-ROK alliance.
They also need a credible threat to the US homeland. Right now their ICBMs cannot penetrate US missile defense defending the American continent. However, the Kim regime continues to test their ICBMs likely focusing on developing countermeasures to penetrate US missile defenses.
I there are no US troops in South Korea and North Korea has a credible nuclear threat to US cities would the US respond to threats made to the ROK? I think the answer to that question really depends on relations between the ROK and US at the time. I think it is more likely though the Kim regime will use their nuclear weapons to create a crisis to extort the ROK with.
The statement is not surprising, what is a little surprising is how long it took the Kim regime to make the statement in support of the Russians. I think this may be another indication that the Kim regime is readying for a nuclear test. They support the Russians now and the Russians will support them later in blocking sanctions in the UN Security Council after any nuclear test:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sunday expressed full support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the country’s state media reported, despite international condemnation for his invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian people have “achieved great successes in accomplishing the just cause of defending the dignity and security of their country … while braving all sorts of challenges and hardships,” Kim said in a message to Putin on the occasion of the Russia Day holiday, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. “The Korean people extend full support and encouragement to them.”
Kim’s apparent reference to the unprovoked attack against Ukraine as a “just cause” for defending Russia’s security is the latest sign that illustrates decades-old close bilateral ties between the two countries.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
