Is anyone familiar with china’s oil and fuel industry? AFAIK they produce a fair amount of oil but still need to import. Is this more related to their refining capacity?
The article suggests they have managed to reach a manageable level of fuel domestically and are okay to export fuel regionally again.
I wonder if this is a one time thing to take pressure off Iran or if they can actually consistently export.
Multiple sources told The Post that 35-year-old Rana, now a principal at investment firm Bregal Sagemount, is the man who brought the bombshell lawsuit against Lorna Hajdini earlier this week.
Rana’s suit, filed on Monday under the pseudonym John Doe, accused the 37-year-old executive director of turning him into her “sex slave” by drugging him with Rohypnol and Viagra and threatening to slash his bonus if he did not comply.
“Following an investigation, we don’t believe there’s any merit to these claims,” the spokesperson said. “While numerous employees cooperated with the investigation, the complainant refused to participate and has declined to provide facts that would be central to support his allegations.”
They investigated and knew it was BS months ago. I bet keeping it quiet and letting rumors circulate has done wonders for recruitment at the junior banker level.
Liz
1 month ago
My oldest son watches energy stuff pretty closely, so I asked him your question about China, Johnnyboy and this is what he texted back (series of messages):
“China is the sixth largest oil producer on Earth but runs a ~70% raw input deficit and is extremely dependent on oil imports, especially from Russia. This is due to a relative lack of crude in the Chinese mainland- China is actually the largest oil refiner on earth, and almost exclusively imports raw crude which it refines domestically. China has historically been a major net exporter of refined petroleum products (especially petrochemicals, but also fuels). They restricted exports for a while to secure their domestic supply, but they’ve started to ease off on this over the last few months. I just looked it up and, for reference, the most current data holds that China extracts ~5 million barrels a day domestically, imports 11 million, consumes 16 million and has a total refining capacity of 18 million (the shortfall is why they restricted exports) So to answer the person’s question, I think the rise in fuel exports (such as it is) is more of a return to form than anything else. And I’m not sure how it would “take pressure off of Iran”(?) I just read and China hasn’t actually restarted petroleum product exports yet, but are talking about doing so in May So I was wrong about them easing off over the last few months, it’s still fully in place”
Thank you for asking him and I appreciate his insight.
My assumption may be wrong but my belief was that China relied on Iran’s oil as well. Quick search says 10 to 15 percent of China’s oil was imported by shadow fleet from Iran.
With the blockade in place my thinking was that China would have less oil coming in to refine and less fuel production for export to the region.
The potential pressure might come from the other countries suffering fuel shortages and wanting Iran to cave.
Maybe China can maintain export levels with Iranian oil stuck behind a blockade.
I keep hearing Iran may have to turn off their pumps if they can’t unload their reserves in the next week or so. Once turned off my understanding is it’s difficult or impossible to restart and often new wells must be drilled. Your son probably could provide more on whether this is accurate or overblown.
If it’s true, I would appreciate a discussion here on who stands to gain or lose if Iran’s production is taken off the table for a mid to long term duration.
Liz
1 month ago
I sent him your response post and he texted this back:
“China definitely stands to lose quite a bit if Iranian exports are cut or severely restricted in the long term (they have the ability to absorb this in the medium term). While Russia is China’s primary oil supplier by a good margin they do import large quantities from Iran, and they have leverage over Iran they don’t over their other suppliers (“we’re the only ones who buy your oil, better play nice”) which makes Iran valuable. China has always tried to mitigate its dependence on any specific supplier by diversifying across the gulf states, but the dual US/Iranian blockade of ALL gulf oil has kind of broken this strategy.
They’re still in a good position relative to other net importers, they have the largest storage stockpile in the world (they could run all their refineries at full tilt for 100+ days with no imports just on the oil they have stockpiled), which has allowed them to keep everything running by digging into their reserves. They’ve still slashed refinery ops pretty substantially but not to the point where it’s severely impacting their economy. They’ve actually increased their stockpiles of fuel and other refined products since the export ban started because they didn’t severely downthrottle refinement, which is one of the reasons they’re considering resuming some exports next month.
I think they’re using this as a political lever to increase their local influence (they’re expected to only resume exports to select regional partners who’re desperate for fuel) rather than a way of helping Iran maintain its blockade. China has little to gain and a lot to lose from the situation in the gulf continuing much longer, I don’t think it’s something they’d burn reserves to support.
Its not impossible to restart wells once they’ve been shut off but the cost for restoring/restarting them is very high, and the longer they’re offline, the more oil they previously had access to becomes inaccessible due to groundwater seepage. The gulf states are suffering more heavily than Iran right now because they’ve been blockaded for longer and they had higher output before the war, but they also have avenues for offloading that Iran doesn’t have, specifically pipelines. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have been able to reduce capacity to a minimum to avoid full shutdowns at many of their wells because of this, but as soon as Iran’s storage fills up (~2 weeks from now) they have a choice of either shutting down or dumping oil.
TLDR Iranian oil stopping would suck for China by making their oil import mix less geopolitically secure, but it wouldn’t be fatal. The dual blockade standoff hurts them more.”
@Liz, thanks for sharing. Interesting perspective from your son. It seems it would be in China’s effort to nudge Iran to give up their enriched uranium. Maybe China can offer to hold the enriched uranium for them to allow Iran to save face during a nuclear deal by allowing them to claim they did not surrender the uranium to Trump?
Liz
1 month ago
RIP, Spirit Airlines. You were a crappy airline, but I feel for the staff and everyone losing employment. Also Jet Blue is going to be next, and when that happens everyone will likely feel the price increase with those two gone. They had planned on merging but that was squashed a while back (Warren and Buttguy)
“Spirit’s decline couldn’t possibly have anything to do with their reputation for fighting and unacceptable behavior on their planes could it?”
Think about that for a moment.
Think about all the videos you have seen of fighting and unacceptable behavior on Spirit airlines, in airports, in fast food places, etc.
And then consider that large sections of of the American real estate industry are based on how far you can live from black people.
People pay a premium to keep the ghetto at a distance in many domains.
As long as this unpleasant truth is shouted down by fake cries of racism while the media normalizes inexcusable behavior, nothing will change.
I, myself, would have paid extra if I was guaranteed a Throwing of Ghetto Hands on every flight.
“Goooood afternoon, this is your captain speaking. Estimated flight time to Richmond is 3 hours and 14 minutes. In-flight entertainment will be the director’s cut of Menace 2 Society followed by two groups obese black women in undersized sandals and yoga pants pulling off each other’s wigs and yelling about, “stayin’ da hell away from mah damn babydaddy.”
Stephen
1 month ago
CH, next time keep it zipped up.
Johnnyboy
1 month ago
I have always heard the entire airline industry was subsidized to some degree.
For as much as we pay in taxes maybe it would have been of some benefit to the average person that Spirit got a government lifeline.
That way everyone who just wanted to get from A to B and maybe catch a nap or not have to worry about their flight being diverted could pay a little more to fly American or Delta.
ChickenHead
1 month ago
“CH, next time keep it zipped up.”
Q: What has 100 teeth and holds back a monster?
A: my zipper
But sometimes 100 teeth is just not enough.
Johnnyboy
1 month ago
Iran is attacking UAE oil infrastructure that is apparently being used to bypass the strait of Hormuz. This is after the US is promising to escort stranded ships out.
I may be reading it wrong but it seems like desperation. Almost like Iran is lashing out at being cut off and ignored. I’m imagining Glenn Close in that movie with Michael Douglas.
Could it be possible that the rest of the world adapts and just doesn’t use the strait at all for a certain period of time until the blockades simply make it impossible for Iran to function?
@Johnnyboy, I think you are right that this is likely desperation. The US just brought ships through the Oman side of the Strait and the US military destroyed the Iranian forces that tried to respond. They instead lashed out at other targets. If the US can keep bringing ships through this will end their one leverage point. They must not have much confidence they can hold the Oman side of the Strait if they are attacking oil infrastructure that bypasses the Strait.
@Liz, I have never flown Spirit Airlines, but considering all the stories I wish I kind of did to at least experience the supposed craziness on those planes at least once.
Short Version: Korean firefighters vs wild boar in apartment hallway
ChickenHead
1 month ago
Despite the nonsense of the anti-American talking heads, both foreign and domestic, the situation in Iran looks like a big long-term win for America in every way.
Already, Iran’s nuclear and long range missile programs are greatly set back. Even if America walks away today, Iran will be in a weakened state for many years.
The entire region is united against Iran due to Iran’s desperate attacks that have forced Arab Muslims to side with Jews and Christians. Good job, Iran.
America can maintain the blockade far, far longer than Iran can endure it. It is real-world training at exercise cost. Eventually, Iran will have to make concessions. Trump will only make faux concessions he has already factored into the deal. The media will say Trump’s “concessions” means he lost. But the media is filled with idiots who have never read his books.
High oil is not exactly a problem for the world’s largest oil exporter (did I mention that is America?)
Global recession is a long-term benefit. America has fewer problems and faster recovery. Recession encourages domestic investment and strengthens domestic supply chains. Socially, it trims a lot of the idiocy that develops when times are too good and people have to create things to worry about.
I WANT a global recession that hurts everyone, especially the noisy entitled poors (but, of course, I would like to maintain my lifestyle and would like to use this little box of cash I have been saving for such an event).
Of course a successful attack on the American military could turn the American public against all the winning… which is what the anti-Americans are hoping for as they downplay the benefits of this war and hype the risks.
But for now, it is quite exciting.
The next clever play is to get Arab neighbors to invade and occupy parts of Iran… “for their own security”.
“Earlier on Saturday, Germany’s defense minister appeared to take in stride the news that 5,000 U.S. troops would be leaving his country.
Boris Pistorius said the drawdown, which Trump has threatened for years, was expected, and he said European nations needed to take on more responsibility for their own defense. But he also emphasized that security cooperation benefited both sides of the trans-Atlantic partnership.
“The presence of American soldiers in Europe, and especially in Germany, is in our interest and in the interest of the U.S.,” Pistorius told the German news agency dpa.”
In a way, it makes sense to me that the Europeans are hesitant to participate in any more middle east conflicts, but the necessity of limiting Iran’s capabilities should be recognized as in their interests. The German chancellor really stepped in it by talking trash.
The NATO response to 5000 troops being pulled from Germany seems to be unified. Most of their statements mention that Europe needs to take a bigger role in defending itself.
I recall a guy who caught a lot of flak for saying that same thing starting about 10 years ago.
5000 would seem to be more of a warning shot than a dramatic reduction in readiness.
ChickenHead
1 month ago
I fully support Europe taking more responsibility for their defense.
They give all their domestic defense weapons to Ukraine to be destroyed by Russians.
Then they buy replacement American weapons for domestic defense plus extra weapons to give to Ukraine.
Once those are destroyed, they buy more American weapons to send to Ukraine.
With any extra cash, they buy Texas sweet crude because they shut down nuclear, shut down coal, and blew up Nordstream¹.
¹of course they didn’t and neither did the Russians… this was Ukraine at America’s sly prompting.
Lots of things happening in Mexico and Latin America in general. US has issued extradition requests for 10 high level sinaloa state government officials including its governor and senator.
President sheinbaum is not giving in to US demands so far. Cooperating with the US on extraditing government officials doesn’t look good for her domestically.
I have seen firsthand from a personal acquaintance who is originally from Mexico that their people are very sensitive on issues of sovereignty.
To the point that they are more concerned with the US not interfering than they are about fixing the cartel problem.
James Whitlock
1 month ago
So much winning (and lying)
A CIA report reveals that Trump and Pete Hegseth have been lying to the American people about the situation inside Iran. WaPo: “A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse.”
… “US intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles. The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities and repair damaged missiles.”
… One of the US officials said they thought Iran’s capacity to sustain prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even this current CIA estimate: “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident that they can outlast US political will.”
… Iran state media IRIB: “Axios reported 5 times in 19 days that a deal with Iran was ‘imminent.’ 5 times – and no deal materialized. It appears the reporter known as B.R. (Barak Ravid), along with friends in the US govt, may be profiting from market volatility!”
… Ravid responded: “This is a Lie! Axios didn’t report even once over the last three weeks that a deal was ‘imminent’. The Iranian regime, its state TV and its Bots and influence accounts on social media are pushing this lie. It’s a regime propaganda campaign. Don’t fall for it or amplify it.”
ChickenHead
1 month ago
James, I hope you have a no-slip grip, as you are such a tool.
Pretty much everything that has been reported is intentionally warped to mean something different than reality.
Example: “A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship”
That’s 12 to 16 weeks.
A blockade is about the lowest effort action America can do besides getting to the blockade.
So.
We try to make a deal that checks all the required boxes. If nothing happens, we try again 16 weeks.
Iran can likely endure for a long time. America can endure longer. If America can do 20 expensive years in Afghanistan, America can float around on an extended training mission with occasional live fire practice.
Enjoy.
Your poopoo attitude will get you nowhere… in life.
Exhibit A: your life
Liz
1 month ago
Nothing says ‘this is legit’ like a “Confidential CIA analysis” published in The Washington Post.
James Whitlock
1 month ago
Trump is trying his best to get out of the quagmire he created. They said Epic Fury is over but…what, exactly, was accomplished?
Iran still has all of its nuclear materials
Iran’s regime is still strong and even more defiant than before
The strait of Hormuz is for the most part, closed (pro tip – it was open before the debacle began)
13 service members killed, almost 400 wounded
Almost every base in the middle east that the US used has seen considerable damage
25 – 50 billion spent on the war so far
~5 billion in equipment lost (aircraft, radars, helicopters, drones, missiles etc)
168 girls killed in the strike on that school
gas prices up up and away
And here we are, and Trump is more concerned about his ballroom. Again, what, exactly has been accomplished except that the US is the laughingstock of the world?
ChickenHead
1 month ago
“Trump is trying his best to get out of the quagmire he created.”
Vietnam was a quagmire. Afghanistan was an (intentional) quagmire. A few weeks destroying many things in Iran and then sitting around in the ocean not doing much more than off the coast of California… is… not… a… quagmire.
Did the umbilical cord wrap around you neck in the minutes before birth?
“They said Epic Fury is over but…what, exactly, was accomplished?”
Lots.
“Iran still has all of its nuclear materials”
Nobody cares about that. All talk is to distract people like you. Enriching uranium to 60% is the easy part. Getting it to bomb grade is harder. It is even harder when all your facilities and equipment need to be dug out and repainted.
“Iran’s regime is still strong and even more defiant than before”
That attitude sometimes last for years… but it doesn’t work out. You just become Cuba. The Iranian people deserve what they accept. If they don’t start killing the police and regime stooges running the checkpoint, they can live with what they have. They have been led to water and now it is their choice to drink.
“The strait of Hormuz is for the most part, closed (pro tip – it was open before the debacle began).
You aren’t really paying attention are you. That is good for many reasons.
“13 service members killed, almost 400 wounded”
About 30 service members die every month from accidents. Thousands to tens of thousands are injured, depending on how you define injuries. Fewer service members have died during this operation because they aren’t out drinking and dirtbiking and driving fast. Happens in every operation since Vietnam.
“Almost every base in the middle east that the US used has seen considerable damage”
Where were you when the BLMs were doing billions of dollars of damage to American cities? You were crapping on Trump and cheering on the negroes burning negro neighborhoods for negro reasons. Because you are an enemy of America. You don’t want America winning at home or abroad.
“25 – 50 billion spent on the war so far~5 billion in equipment lost (aircraft, radars, helicopters, drones, missiles etc)”
180 billion to Ukraine, for nothing is no problem? 50 billion to advance American interests. Clutch the pearls.
“168 girls killed in the strike on that school”
That is truly unfortunate. You did save some blame for the Iranians, right? You recognize they put military assets in schools to protect them… and then slip some schoolgirls in as well.
“gas prices up up and away”
Where were you in 2022 when gas prices were higher under Biden? Oh, I remember. “The president doesn’t set the gas prices.”
“And here we are, and Trump is more concerned about his ballroom.”
I don’t know if “more” is the right word… but he is paying for it. The left is so completely deranged they don’t want America to have a proper place for official function that is free to the taxpayer and made by a man know to be under budget and ahead of schedule.
“Again, what, exactly has been accomplished except that the US is the laughingstock of the world?”
The US has never been a laughingstock under any administration. MFers be whistling past the graveyard but they aren’t ever laughing.
I see you hate America. You don’t hope for success. You hope for failure.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-reopens-fuel-export-spigot-offering-relief-asian-buyers
Is anyone familiar with china’s oil and fuel industry? AFAIK they produce a fair amount of oil but still need to import. Is this more related to their refining capacity?
The article suggests they have managed to reach a manageable level of fuel domestically and are okay to export fuel regionally again.
I wonder if this is a one time thing to take pressure off Iran or if they can actually consistently export.
https://nypost.com/2026/04/30/business/bombshell-jpmorgan-sex-harassment-suit-that-went-viral-branded-complete-fabrication-as-john-doe-accuser-unmasked/
Multiple sources told The Post that 35-year-old Rana, now a principal at investment firm Bregal Sagemount, is the man who brought the bombshell lawsuit against Lorna Hajdini earlier this week.
Rana’s suit, filed on Monday under the pseudonym John Doe, accused the 37-year-old executive director of turning him into her “sex slave” by drugging him with Rohypnol and Viagra and threatening to slash his bonus if he did not comply.
“Following an investigation, we don’t believe there’s any merit to these claims,” the spokesperson said. “While numerous employees cooperated with the investigation, the complainant refused to participate and has declined to provide facts that would be central to support his allegations.”
They investigated and knew it was BS months ago. I bet keeping it quiet and letting rumors circulate has done wonders for recruitment at the junior banker level.
My oldest son watches energy stuff pretty closely, so I asked him your question about China, Johnnyboy and this is what he texted back (series of messages):
“China is the sixth largest oil producer on Earth but runs a ~70% raw input deficit and is extremely dependent on oil imports, especially from Russia. This is due to a relative lack of crude in the Chinese mainland- China is actually the largest oil refiner on earth, and almost exclusively imports raw crude which it refines domestically. China has historically been a major net exporter of refined petroleum products (especially petrochemicals, but also fuels).
They restricted exports for a while to secure their domestic supply, but they’ve started to ease off on this over the last few months. I just looked it up and, for reference, the most current data holds that China extracts ~5 million barrels a day domestically, imports 11 million, consumes 16 million and has a total refining capacity of 18 million (the shortfall is why they restricted exports)
So to answer the person’s question, I think the rise in fuel exports (such as it is) is more of a return to form than anything else. And I’m not sure how it would “take pressure off of Iran”(?)
I just read and China hasn’t actually restarted petroleum product exports yet, but are talking about doing so in May
So I was wrong about them easing off over the last few months, it’s still fully in place”
@Liz
Thank you for asking him and I appreciate his insight.
My assumption may be wrong but my belief was that China relied on Iran’s oil as well. Quick search says 10 to 15 percent of China’s oil was imported by shadow fleet from Iran.
With the blockade in place my thinking was that China would have less oil coming in to refine and less fuel production for export to the region.
The potential pressure might come from the other countries suffering fuel shortages and wanting Iran to cave.
Maybe China can maintain export levels with Iranian oil stuck behind a blockade.
I keep hearing Iran may have to turn off their pumps if they can’t unload their reserves in the next week or so. Once turned off my understanding is it’s difficult or impossible to restart and often new wells must be drilled. Your son probably could provide more on whether this is accurate or overblown.
If it’s true, I would appreciate a discussion here on who stands to gain or lose if Iran’s production is taken off the table for a mid to long term duration.
I sent him your response post and he texted this back:
“China definitely stands to lose quite a bit if Iranian exports are cut or severely restricted in the long term (they have the ability to absorb this in the medium term). While Russia is China’s primary oil supplier by a good margin they do import large quantities from Iran, and they have leverage over Iran they don’t over their other suppliers (“we’re the only ones who buy your oil, better play nice”) which makes Iran valuable. China has always tried to mitigate its dependence on any specific supplier by diversifying across the gulf states, but the dual US/Iranian blockade of ALL gulf oil has kind of broken this strategy.
They’re still in a good position relative to other net importers, they have the largest storage stockpile in the world (they could run all their refineries at full tilt for 100+ days with no imports just on the oil they have stockpiled), which has allowed them to keep everything running by digging into their reserves. They’ve still slashed refinery ops pretty substantially but not to the point where it’s severely impacting their economy. They’ve actually increased their stockpiles of fuel and other refined products since the export ban started because they didn’t severely downthrottle refinement, which is one of the reasons they’re considering resuming some exports next month.
I think they’re using this as a political lever to increase their local influence (they’re expected to only resume exports to select regional partners who’re desperate for fuel) rather than a way of helping Iran maintain its blockade. China has little to gain and a lot to lose from the situation in the gulf continuing much longer, I don’t think it’s something they’d burn reserves to support.
Its not impossible to restart wells once they’ve been shut off but the cost for restoring/restarting them is very high, and the longer they’re offline, the more oil they previously had access to becomes inaccessible due to groundwater seepage. The gulf states are suffering more heavily than Iran right now because they’ve been blockaded for longer and they had higher output before the war, but they also have avenues for offloading that Iran doesn’t have, specifically pipelines. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have been able to reduce capacity to a minimum to avoid full shutdowns at many of their wells because of this, but as soon as Iran’s storage fills up (~2 weeks from now) they have a choice of either shutting down or dumping oil.
TLDR Iranian oil stopping would suck for China by making their oil import mix less geopolitically secure, but it wouldn’t be fatal. The dual blockade standoff hurts them more.”
@Liz
Your son sounds like a very analytical, bright guy. You should be proud.
I enjoyed hearing his perspective.
Thank you, Johnnyboy. 🙂
He’s a civil engineer in the USAF (just made Captain).
@Liz, thanks for sharing. Interesting perspective from your son. It seems it would be in China’s effort to nudge Iran to give up their enriched uranium. Maybe China can offer to hold the enriched uranium for them to allow Iran to save face during a nuclear deal by allowing them to claim they did not surrender the uranium to Trump?
RIP, Spirit Airlines. You were a crappy airline, but I feel for the staff and everyone losing employment. Also Jet Blue is going to be next, and when that happens everyone will likely feel the price increase with those two gone. They had planned on merging but that was squashed a while back (Warren and Buttguy)
@Liz
Spirit’s decline couldn’t possibly have anything to do with their reputation for fighting and unacceptable behavior on their planes could it?
Carnival cruises had to implement dress codes and start enforcing marijuana rules after they lowered prices trying to bounce back after the pandemic.
The latest news on Spirit Airlines:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DX4eTh1kUE-/
“Spirit’s decline couldn’t possibly have anything to do with their reputation for fighting and unacceptable behavior on their planes could it?”
Think about that for a moment.
Think about all the videos you have seen of fighting and unacceptable behavior on Spirit airlines, in airports, in fast food places, etc.
And then consider that large sections of of the American real estate industry are based on how far you can live from black people.
People pay a premium to keep the ghetto at a distance in many domains.
As long as this unpleasant truth is shouted down by fake cries of racism while the media normalizes inexcusable behavior, nothing will change.
I, myself, would have paid extra if I was guaranteed a Throwing of Ghetto Hands on every flight.
“Goooood afternoon, this is your captain speaking. Estimated flight time to Richmond is 3 hours and 14 minutes. In-flight entertainment will be the director’s cut of Menace 2 Society followed by two groups obese black women in undersized sandals and yoga pants pulling off each other’s wigs and yelling about, “stayin’ da hell away from mah damn babydaddy.”
CH, next time keep it zipped up.
I have always heard the entire airline industry was subsidized to some degree.
For as much as we pay in taxes maybe it would have been of some benefit to the average person that Spirit got a government lifeline.
That way everyone who just wanted to get from A to B and maybe catch a nap or not have to worry about their flight being diverted could pay a little more to fly American or Delta.
“CH, next time keep it zipped up.”
Q: What has 100 teeth and holds back a monster?
A: my zipper
But sometimes 100 teeth is just not enough.
Iran is attacking UAE oil infrastructure that is apparently being used to bypass the strait of Hormuz. This is after the US is promising to escort stranded ships out.
I may be reading it wrong but it seems like desperation. Almost like Iran is lashing out at being cut off and ignored. I’m imagining Glenn Close in that movie with Michael Douglas.
Could it be possible that the rest of the world adapts and just doesn’t use the strait at all for a certain period of time until the blockades simply make it impossible for Iran to function?
@Johnnyboy, I think you are right that this is likely desperation. The US just brought ships through the Oman side of the Strait and the US military destroyed the Iranian forces that tried to respond. They instead lashed out at other targets. If the US can keep bringing ships through this will end their one leverage point. They must not have much confidence they can hold the Oman side of the Strait if they are attacking oil infrastructure that bypasses the Strait.
@Liz, I have never flown Spirit Airlines, but considering all the stories I wish I kind of did to at least experience the supposed craziness on those planes at least once.
https://x.com/mog_russEN/status/2050902838054957398?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2050902838054957398%7Ctwgr%5E2aed598ff7afb37815a14f570ebfbf42b4b2e385%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F05%2Fwatch-south-korean-firefighters-struggle-control-aggressive-wild%2F
Short Version: Korean firefighters vs wild boar in apartment hallway
Despite the nonsense of the anti-American talking heads, both foreign and domestic, the situation in Iran looks like a big long-term win for America in every way.
Already, Iran’s nuclear and long range missile programs are greatly set back. Even if America walks away today, Iran will be in a weakened state for many years.
The entire region is united against Iran due to Iran’s desperate attacks that have forced Arab Muslims to side with Jews and Christians. Good job, Iran.
America can maintain the blockade far, far longer than Iran can endure it. It is real-world training at exercise cost. Eventually, Iran will have to make concessions. Trump will only make faux concessions he has already factored into the deal. The media will say Trump’s “concessions” means he lost. But the media is filled with idiots who have never read his books.
High oil is not exactly a problem for the world’s largest oil exporter (did I mention that is America?)
Global recession is a long-term benefit. America has fewer problems and faster recovery. Recession encourages domestic investment and strengthens domestic supply chains. Socially, it trims a lot of the idiocy that develops when times are too good and people have to create things to worry about.
I WANT a global recession that hurts everyone, especially the noisy entitled poors (but, of course, I would like to maintain my lifestyle and would like to use this little box of cash I have been saving for such an event).
Of course a successful attack on the American military could turn the American public against all the winning… which is what the anti-Americans are hoping for as they downplay the benefits of this war and hype the risks.
But for now, it is quite exciting.
The next clever play is to get Arab neighbors to invade and occupy parts of Iran… “for their own security”.
https://apnews.com/article/germany-trump-troops-nato-drawdown-pistorius-merz-a93151327dcb7279a56a36dd4bbeca1c
“Earlier on Saturday, Germany’s defense minister appeared to take in stride the news that 5,000 U.S. troops would be leaving his country.
Boris Pistorius said the drawdown, which Trump has threatened for years, was expected, and he said European nations needed to take on more responsibility for their own defense. But he also emphasized that security cooperation benefited both sides of the trans-Atlantic partnership.
“The presence of American soldiers in Europe, and especially in Germany, is in our interest and in the interest of the U.S.,” Pistorius told the German news agency dpa.”
In a way, it makes sense to me that the Europeans are hesitant to participate in any more middle east conflicts, but the necessity of limiting Iran’s capabilities should be recognized as in their interests. The German chancellor really stepped in it by talking trash.
The NATO response to 5000 troops being pulled from Germany seems to be unified. Most of their statements mention that Europe needs to take a bigger role in defending itself.
I recall a guy who caught a lot of flak for saying that same thing starting about 10 years ago.
5000 would seem to be more of a warning shot than a dramatic reduction in readiness.
I fully support Europe taking more responsibility for their defense.
They give all their domestic defense weapons to Ukraine to be destroyed by Russians.
Then they buy replacement American weapons for domestic defense plus extra weapons to give to Ukraine.
Once those are destroyed, they buy more American weapons to send to Ukraine.
With any extra cash, they buy Texas sweet crude because they shut down nuclear, shut down coal, and blew up Nordstream¹.
¹of course they didn’t and neither did the Russians… this was Ukraine at America’s sly prompting.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/claudia-sheinbaum-is-between-a-rock-threat-of-us-intervention-and-a-hard-place-her-own-partys-narco-politicians.html
Lots of things happening in Mexico and Latin America in general. US has issued extradition requests for 10 high level sinaloa state government officials including its governor and senator.
President sheinbaum is not giving in to US demands so far. Cooperating with the US on extraditing government officials doesn’t look good for her domestically.
I have seen firsthand from a personal acquaintance who is originally from Mexico that their people are very sensitive on issues of sovereignty.
To the point that they are more concerned with the US not interfering than they are about fixing the cartel problem.
So much winning (and lying)
A CIA report reveals that Trump and Pete Hegseth have been lying to the American people about the situation inside Iran. WaPo: “A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse.”
… “US intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles. The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities and repair damaged missiles.”
… One of the US officials said they thought Iran’s capacity to sustain prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even this current CIA estimate: “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident that they can outlast US political will.”
… Iran state media IRIB: “Axios reported 5 times in 19 days that a deal with Iran was ‘imminent.’ 5 times – and no deal materialized. It appears the reporter known as B.R. (Barak Ravid), along with friends in the US govt, may be profiting from market volatility!”
… Ravid responded: “This is a Lie! Axios didn’t report even once over the last three weeks that a deal was ‘imminent’. The Iranian regime, its state TV and its Bots and influence accounts on social media are pushing this lie. It’s a regime propaganda campaign. Don’t fall for it or amplify it.”
James, I hope you have a no-slip grip, as you are such a tool.
Pretty much everything that has been reported is intentionally warped to mean something different than reality.
Example: “A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship”
That’s 12 to 16 weeks.
A blockade is about the lowest effort action America can do besides getting to the blockade.
So.
We try to make a deal that checks all the required boxes. If nothing happens, we try again 16 weeks.
Iran can likely endure for a long time. America can endure longer. If America can do 20 expensive years in Afghanistan, America can float around on an extended training mission with occasional live fire practice.
Enjoy.
Your poopoo attitude will get you nowhere… in life.
Exhibit A: your life
Nothing says ‘this is legit’ like a “Confidential CIA analysis” published in The Washington Post.
Trump is trying his best to get out of the quagmire he created. They said Epic Fury is over but…what, exactly, was accomplished?
And here we are, and Trump is more concerned about his ballroom. Again, what, exactly has been accomplished except that the US is the laughingstock of the world?
“Trump is trying his best to get out of the quagmire he created.”
Vietnam was a quagmire. Afghanistan was an (intentional) quagmire. A few weeks destroying many things in Iran and then sitting around in the ocean not doing much more than off the coast of California… is… not… a… quagmire.
Did the umbilical cord wrap around you neck in the minutes before birth?
“They said Epic Fury is over but…what, exactly, was accomplished?”
Lots.
“Iran still has all of its nuclear materials”
Nobody cares about that. All talk is to distract people like you. Enriching uranium to 60% is the easy part. Getting it to bomb grade is harder. It is even harder when all your facilities and equipment need to be dug out and repainted.
“Iran’s regime is still strong and even more defiant than before”
That attitude sometimes last for years… but it doesn’t work out. You just become Cuba. The Iranian people deserve what they accept. If they don’t start killing the police and regime stooges running the checkpoint, they can live with what they have. They have been led to water and now it is their choice to drink.
“The strait of Hormuz is for the most part, closed (pro tip – it was open before the debacle began).
You aren’t really paying attention are you. That is good for many reasons.
“13 service members killed, almost 400 wounded”
About 30 service members die every month from accidents. Thousands to tens of thousands are injured, depending on how you define injuries. Fewer service members have died during this operation because they aren’t out drinking and dirtbiking and driving fast. Happens in every operation since Vietnam.
“Almost every base in the middle east that the US used has seen considerable damage”
Where were you when the BLMs were doing billions of dollars of damage to American cities? You were crapping on Trump and cheering on the negroes burning negro neighborhoods for negro reasons. Because you are an enemy of America. You don’t want America winning at home or abroad.
“25 – 50 billion spent on the war so far~5 billion in equipment lost (aircraft, radars, helicopters, drones, missiles etc)”
180 billion to Ukraine, for nothing is no problem? 50 billion to advance American interests. Clutch the pearls.
“168 girls killed in the strike on that school”
That is truly unfortunate. You did save some blame for the Iranians, right? You recognize they put military assets in schools to protect them… and then slip some schoolgirls in as well.
“gas prices up up and away”
Where were you in 2022 when gas prices were higher under Biden? Oh, I remember. “The president doesn’t set the gas prices.”
“And here we are, and Trump is more concerned about his ballroom.”
I don’t know if “more” is the right word… but he is paying for it. The left is so completely deranged they don’t want America to have a proper place for official function that is free to the taxpayer and made by a man know to be under budget and ahead of schedule.
“Again, what, exactly has been accomplished except that the US is the laughingstock of the world?”
The US has never been a laughingstock under any administration. MFers be whistling past the graveyard but they aren’t ever laughing.
I see you hate America. You don’t hope for success. You hope for failure.
Chances are, you will be disappointed.
…not unlike your mom.