Removing the North Korean artillery from areas along the DMZ would be a huge concession by the Kim regime which is why I would be surprised to see this happen:
Military officials from the two Koreas hold rare talks at the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom on June 14, 2018, in this photo released by the joint press corps. (Yonhap)
South Korea proposed that North Korea move its long-range artillery away from the heavily fortified border in an effort to reduce tensions during last week’s rare cross-border military talks, government sources here said Sunday.
During Thursday’s general-grade meeting, the first in more than a decade, Seoul made a series of suggestions, including relocating the artillery pieces to areas 30 to 40 kilometers away from the Military Demarcation Line separating the two Koreas, the insiders said.
The two sides held the talks to follow up on the Panmunjom Declaration from the April 27 inter-Korean summit at the truce village, which calls for joint efforts to alleviate military tensions and “practically eliminate the danger of war.”
“We conveyed our position to the North that in light of consultations between the North and the United States over the denuclearization issue, we have to craft measures to drastically reduce military tensions by removing practical threats,” a source said on condition of anonymity.
“I understand that (the South) suggested moving the North’s artillery that threatens the Seoul metropolitan area to rear areas so as to actively implement the Panmunjom Declaration,” the source added.
According to a 2016 South Korean defense white paper, the North has 14,100 artillery pieces, including 5,500 multiple rocket launchers, a majority of which have been deployed near the border.
Pyongyang is known to possess a variety of rocket systems, including 170 mm-caliber self-propelled howitzers and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers that can easily target Seoul and surrounding areas.
The North’s longer-range 300 mm multiple rocket launcher is seen as more formidable, as it is capable of reaching key U.S. military installations in Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi Province and the headquarters of the South’s Army, Navy and Air Force in the Gyeryongdae military compound in South Chungcheong Province. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but North Korea’s artillery has been their source of deterrence for decades. If it wasn’t for North Korea’s artillery threat on Seoul a regime change war would have likely happened by now considering the outrageous provocations the Kim regime has committed over the years.
Removing the artillery from its carefully hardened positions on the DMZ would ultimately be a threat to regime security which is why I would be surprised to see this happen.
Does anyone think it is just a coincidence that the North Korean human rights office in South Korea is shut down shortly after the summit between Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in?:
South Korea’s unification ministry said Thursday that it has closed the office for a state-run foundation for North Korea’s human rights, whose launch has been delayed for nearly two years amid political differences.
The ministry, which handles inter-Korean relations, said that it will terminate the lease contract for the office in Seoul this month to prevent the further waste of government funds, estimated at around 63 million won ($58,120) every month. The office has been vacant since first being rented 21 months ago.
“The move is only an administrative and operational measure to stem further financial losses. The government’s stance to launch the foundation on human rights for North Korean citizens as soon as possible remains unchanged,” the ministry said. [Korea Times]
A pair of Democratic senators on Wednesday introduced an amendment to the annual defense policy bill that would stop President Trump from withdrawing U.S. forces from South Korea without the Pentagon’s input.
The amendment “would help prevent the President from making a rash decision about troop reductions on the Korean Peninsula that negatively impacts our national security,” Sens. Tammy Duckworth (Ill.) and Chris Murphy (Conn.) said in a joint statement.
Introduced for the Fiscal 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the provision would stop a withdraw “unless the U.S. Secretary of Defense certifies it is in our national security interest and would not significantly undermine the security of our allies in the region.” [The Hill]
We must not forget the people of North Korea whom has no voice and not allowed to speak because the dictator kills them and punishes three generations of their family members at this very moment.
I have to admit I cringed a little bit when I first saw this, but the follow on criticism has been over the top:
Newly released video footage from North Korean state media shows President Donald Trump returning a salute to a North Korean military general during this week’s summit in Singapore, an extraordinary display of respect from a US president to a top officer of a hostile regime.
In the military, returning a salute from a military officer of a friendly foreign nation is common practice for US military officers and considered a display of military professionalism. There is no rule that a US president is obliged to return a salute, which is considered a sign of mutual respect.
After Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walked down a colonnade to shake hands, the pair entered into a room filled with various members of Kim’s delegation, the video from North Korean broadcaster KCTV news shows.
Trump starts to shake hands with those in the room. Upon encountering North Korean Gen. No Kwang Chol, who was in full uniform, Trump first extends his hand, to which the general responds with a salute. Trump then salutes back, extends his hand again and the two men shake hands. [CNN]
You can read more at the link, but the salute as expected has become red meat for the usual Trump critics to sensationalize. The over the top criticism of what appeared to a reflexive action by the President is about as stupid as the over top criticism of former President Obama bowing to the Saudi King. With that said if Obama had done this his critics would be doing the same thing that Trump critics are doing now.
From what I have read there really isn’t any regulation stating that a President is supposed to salute military personnel much less foreign military personnel. Saluting apparently started with President Reagan and follow on Presidents have continued this tradition.
There’s no regulation that stipulates presidents must salute the troops. In fact, for the first 192 years of our republic, it didn’t happen. None of the first 38 commanders in chief did it. And some of those dudes had some serious military experience. Eisenhower? Grant? I mean, Teddy Roosevelt was a war hero. Surely he felt compelled to click his heels together and cut a perfect knife-handed salute when he passed a uniform service member, right? Wrong. It was literally something that Ronald Reagan made up one day. [Task and Purpose]
Interestingly I did find buried at the very end of a Dallas Morning News article criticizing Trump’s salute, that President Obama did occasionally salute foreign military personnel as well:
A cursory check of photo archives shows that Obama on occasion returned a foreign official’s salute. [Dallas Morning News]
The White House for its part is defending the salute as being part of “common courtesy“. Well the so call common courtesy is sure to be immortalized with endless amount of Internet memes highlighting this salute.
I understand these banks have to do due diligence in preparation to support any investments in North Korea, but this is all irrelevant unless the Trump administration drops sanctions:
South Korean banks, including Shinhan Financial Group and KB Financial Group — have set up task forces to conduct research on inter-Korean economic projects.
Earlier this month, Shinhan Financial launched a task force on North Korea.
The task force was manned by executives from the financial holding firm’s affiliates, including Shinhan Bank.
KB Financial has also set up a task force to review how it could take part in North Korea’s fiancial business operations if inter-Korean cooperation gains further momentum.
KEB Hana Bank will launch a team to draw up plans for financial support in North Korea when inter-Korean economic projects resume.
An official at KEB Hana Bank said the bank is interested in opening a branch in North Korea, but it will be possible “when political conditions are ripe.” [Yonhap]
As I have been saying the suspension of joint exercises with South Korea is something that is easily reversible and can be used as negotiating leverage against the Kim regime:
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, toasts North Korean officials, including Vice-Chairman of the Central Committee Kim Yong Chol, in New York City, May 30, 2018.
President Donald Trump will resume military exercises with South Korea if the North stops negotiating in good faith over its nuclear weapons program, the top U.S. diplomat said Wednesday.
The tempered expectations were markedly different from the optimistic tone set by Trump in a series of tweets earlier in the day. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but I think we will know whether North Korea is negotiating in good faith by the Key Resolve exercise timeframe early next year. If North Korea is not making any irreversible progress towards denuclearization I would expect this exercise would be executed as scheduled.
Over at One Free Korea he has a posting up that analyzes the recent joint statement between President Trump and Kim Jong-un:
Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.
As always I recommend reading OFK’s entire well thought out analysis at the link.
I fully agree that everyone should be skeptical of this joint statement. However, just like the concessions the Kim regime has made so far, the concessions the Trump administration have made are all easily reversible. Something else to keep in mind is that we don’t know what was privately agreed to during discussions with the regime. I think we should wait for some time to pass to see how this plays out before we declare this summit just more failed diplomacy between the US and North Korea. If the Trump administration drops sanctions for little to nothing in return, that should be the trigger to hit the panic button and declare that Groundhog Day has restarted once again with North Korea.
However, the way President Trump has criticized past administrations for getting little to nothing in return from North Korea in past agreements, I would be very surprised if he chooses this route. I tend to think that the Trump administration is giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and if they don’t reach a comprehensive agreement sanctions will remain in place. As long as the sanctions are in place ROK President Moon Jae-in will not be able to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.
This causes me to think that current negotiations are about what irreversible actions the Kim regime must execute in return for dropping of sanctions. If the North Koreans drag out negotiations like they historically have done, the Trump administration can easily turn back on the Key Resolve joint exercise scheduled each spring and implement more sanctions to pressure the regime to get a deal done. If the Kim regime begins another provocation cycle in response the Trump administration can say they have tried everything to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue and military action may become a more viable option.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that and diplomacy between the US and North Korea works for once, but history does indicate we should all remain skeptical until we actually see it happen.
