Will the Trump-Kim Summit Go Down As Just More Failed Diplomacy Between the US and North Korea?

Over at One Free Korea he has a posting up that analyzes the recent joint statement between President Trump and Kim Jong-un:

Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.

Historically, vague agreements are the agreements Pyongyang loves. One the one hand, it will put an implausibly narrow interpretation on its own concessions: “What you do mean this includes uranium?,” or, “We agreed to stop missile tests, not satellite launch vehicle tests!” On the other hand, it will interpret our own concessions broadly. Here’s a useful map of its demandsto guide your understanding of what it will demand next. What’s clear is that Pyongyang will interpret the terms very differently from what Trump and his cabinet have said they would demand.  [One Free Korea]

As always I recommend reading OFK’s entire well thought out analysis at the link.

I fully agree that everyone should be skeptical of this joint statement.  However, just like the concessions the Kim regime has made so far, the concessions the Trump administration have made are all easily reversible.  Something else to keep in mind is that we don’t know what was privately agreed to during discussions with the regime.  I think we should wait for some time to pass to see how this plays out before we declare this summit just more failed diplomacy between the US and North Korea.  If the Trump administration drops sanctions for little to nothing in return, that should be the trigger to hit the panic button and declare that Groundhog Day has restarted once again with North Korea.

However, the way President Trump has criticized past administrations for getting little to nothing in return from North Korea in past agreements, I would be very surprised if he chooses this route.  I tend to think that the Trump administration is giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and if they don’t reach a comprehensive agreement sanctions will remain in place.  As long as the sanctions are in place ROK President Moon Jae-in will not be able to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.

This causes me to think that current negotiations are about what irreversible actions the Kim regime must execute in return for dropping of sanctions.  If the North Koreans drag out negotiations like they historically have done, the Trump administration can easily turn back on the Key Resolve joint exercise scheduled each spring and implement more sanctions to pressure the regime to get a deal done.  If the Kim regime begins another provocation cycle in response the Trump administration can say they have tried everything to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue and military action may become a more viable option.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that and diplomacy between the US and North Korea works for once, but history does indicate we should all remain skeptical until we actually see it happen.