That's a fundamental disunity of interests that, if not healed, will certainly lead to decoupling. Better that we should use that leverage while we still have it. https://t.co/aafxfC97yS
President Trump is now saying he still supports a suspension of joint military drills and blames China for the recent gridlock on denuclearization:
The White House said Wednesday the U.S. decision to suspend major combined military exercises with South Korea holds true despite a stalemate in efforts to denuclearize North Korea.
President Donald Trump believes “there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games,” his office said in a statement posted on his Twitter account.
It cited Trump’s “good and warm” relationship with the North’s leader Kim Jong-un stemming from their historic Singapore summit on June 12.
Trump thinks China is to blame, at least partially, for the recent gridlock highlighted by the cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Pyongyang this week.
He “feels strongly that North Korea is under tremendous pressure from China because of our major trade disputes with the Chinese Government,” the statement read.
Furthermore, it added, China is providing North Korea with “considerable aid, including money, fuel, fertilizer and various other commodities. This is not helpful!” [Yonhap]
You can read much more at the link, but I am sure the Chinese are not being helpful on the nuclear issue, however I have never believed the Kim regime has wanted to denuclearize anyway. Their strategy has long been getting concessions for pretend denuclearization.
It looks like the US will be making sure that all inter-Korean cooperation is being done by existing regulations:
The United Nations Command (UNC) for the first time disapproved plans for an inter-Korean railway inspection, amid a deadlock in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S.
The plan was for a South Korean train to travel up to the North’s northwestern city of Sinuiju so officials of the Koreas could inspect the condition of the tracks in the North from Aug. 22 to 27.
The UNC holds authority to approve personnel and supplies crossing the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).
The government has stated the inspections do not go against sanctions imposed on the North by the U.N. and the U.S.
The UNC initially cited the reason for disapproval as South Korea not notifying it of its plan 48 hours in advance.
A unification ministry official said this was likely not the issue.
“There were many instances in which plans that were announced less than 48 hours in advance were approved,” he told reporters, Thursday.
The UNC, in an official statement, said it “required South Korea to submit details of the planned visit.” Calling for additional details is seen as unprecedented. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but considering the duplicity shown by the Moon administration allowing the North Koreans to violate sanctions this is probably a wise move.
I personally always thought the joint exercises would be restarted in time to execute Key Resolve 2019 because I never believed the Kim regime was were serious about real denuclearization:
The U.S. military will move ahead with all future military exercises on the Korean Peninsula, Defense Secretary James N. Mattis said Tuesday, suggesting that America’s brief suspension of the drills as a show of “good faith” toward North Korea has not paid dividends in the struggling denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.
“We have no plans at this time to suspend any more exercises,” Mr. Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon, less than three months after President Trump labeled the U.S.-South Korean drills “provocative” and ordered them temporarily halted following his unprecedented face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Mr. Mattis made the announcement at a rare press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, during which the two also weighed in on a range of other topics, including efforts to stamp out the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the U.S. role in battling Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. [Washington Times via a reader tip]
You can read more at the link, but supposedly the President received a hostile letter from the Butcher of the Cheonan, Kim Yong-chol that caused this announcement:
After the announcement it appears the ROK government may want to play delay games with restarting the joint exercises:
Resumption or suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States is subject to discussions between the allies, an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday.
“As of now, the issue has not been discussed between South Korea and the United States,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a daily press briefing. (……)
“It is an issue that should be discussed and decided by South Korea and the U.S. while reviewing the progress in the denuclearization of North Korea,” the Cheong Wa Dae official said. [Yonhap]
I expect that the Moon administration will come out of his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-il offering some minor concession to entice the Trump administration to believe the Kim regime is serious about denuclearization. Regardless I would be surprised if Key Resolve 2019 does not happen. I guess we will see what happens.
A Belize-flagged ship, the Jin Long, is docked at a port in Pohang, on South Korea’s east coast, on Aug. 7, 2018. (Yonhap
South Korea’s spy chief told a parliamentary panel Tuesday his agency reported the import of North Korean coal to the presidential national security office last October, lawmakers said.
A monthslong probe by the customs office showed that three South Korean firms imported North Korean coal from Russia in apparent violation of U.N. sanctions resolutions. There is a controversy over whether the government turned a blind eye to the North Korean coal shipment amid a peace mood with Pyongyang.
Suh Hoon, the chief of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting that the NIS reported the coal shipment to the Office of National Security under Cheong Wa Dae last October.
Suh was quoted as saying that he communicated the fact to the office though there was no direct report to President Moon Jae-in.
The customs office’s recent announcement has spurred controversy over whether South Korea is fully implementing U.N. sanctions on North Korea. [Yonhap]
Moon admin is dismantling anti-tank barriers. Says it's for people's convenience & safety. What about national security? With no barriers, could allow #NorthKorea to invade #Seoul within hours. pic.twitter.com/WguZbEEVTh
North Korean members of the unified Korean canoeing team celebrate after the team grabbed its first-ever gold in women’s 500-meter dragon boat racing at the 18th Jakarta-Palembang Asian Games on Aug. 26, 2018. (Yonhap)
The message President Moon should bring with him is very simple, get rid of the nukes if you want sanctions dropped:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in will likely seek to mediate a breakthrough in talks between the United States and North Korea when he visits Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a Seoul official said Sunday.
The presidential aide highlighted the importance of Moon’s role in advancing apparently stalled talks on the North’s denuclearization following the cancellation of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to the North scheduled for this week.
“I believe President Moon’s role has only become greater,” the official from the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said when asked about any possible change to Moon’s scheduled trip after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday abruptly called off Pompeo’s visit.
Trump cited a lack of “sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” [Yonhap]
I hope nobody is surprised by the fact missiles will reportedly be displayed in this parade. What will be interesting is what kind of missiles? If their mobile ICBMs are displayed I think that would be a clear sign to the Trump administration they are not giving them up:
Satellite imagery shows large numbers of tanks and other vehicles in a plaza in Pyongyang that the regime uses to practice for a military parade celebrating its 70th founding anniversary on Sept. 9, according to Voice of America on Thursday.
About 100 tanks and other mobile vehicles can be seen standing in formation according to their length and color and moving about in the plaza near Mirim Airport.
Six large vehicles about 12 to 14 m long, which looked capable of carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles, were also seen at the rear. [Chosun Ilbo]
