Tag: North Korea

The timing of this space launch makes me wonder if the Moon administration is trying to give the Kim regime in North Korea a rationale to protest the sanctions on their own rocket launches:

South Korea plans to conduct the first test flight of its locally developed booster engine at the end of next month, the ICT ministry said Sunday, as part of a long-term effort to produce the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-2 (KSLV-2), a three-stage rocket.

The single-stage rocket, with a 75-ton thrust engine, developed by the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) is set to be launched between Oct. 25 and Oct. 31 from the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province, the Ministry of Science and ICT said.

It said the launch date has been set after examining all variables and that related countries and agencies, such as the International Civil Aviation Organization and International Maritime Organization, will be notified in advance

“Barring any unforeseen developments, the launch should take place on the primary date of Oct. 25,” the ministry said.

The rocket will fly for about 10 minutes, during which the performance of the new engine, control system and other parts will be monitored, the ministry said. It is expected to attain a sub-orbital altitude of over 100 kilometers some 160 seconds after launch and reach its apogee 300 seconds into the flight, before hitting international waters between South Korea’s Jeju Island and Japan’s Okinawa Island.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but after this launch the Kim regime can argue that they should be allowed to conduct peaceful space launches just like the ROK.  The Chinese and Russians of course would support them, the Moon administration may even openly support them.  So called peaceful space launches would give the North Koreans a way to get around sanctions to continue to perfect components of their ICBM technology.

I wonder how many young people in "Hell Chosun" would like them to have one-way tickets. Not saying it's my preference, but just sayin'. https://t.co/Sla2mJgJBU

— Daniel Pinkston (@dpinkston) September 16, 2018

President Moon’s approval rating is down to 49% and people are more skeptical of his North Korea policies since the first Kim-Moon summit:

“Our people are beginning to learn that North Korea will not easily give up its nukes, something that many experts had already repeatedly predicted,” said Kim Taewoo, former president of the government-funded Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

Moon may face increasing difficulties if his summit with Kim in Pyongyang fails to make tangible progress on efforts to get North Korea to scrap its nuclear weapons program.

Economic woes such as a lackluster job-market growth and soaring real estate prices are compounding Moon’s problems, adding to opposition to his North Korea policy, many experts say.

“If Moon fails to address economic problems, he can’t maintain public contentment with his government only with his North Korea policy,” said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University. “If the economy gets worse, many people will demand that Moon stop looking to North Korea and start resolving our own economic problems.”  [Stars & Stripes]

I expect that President Moon will try and get the Kim regime to do some big spectacle to impress the South Korean domestic audience and President Trump that progress is being made on denuclearization.  Something Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong-il did was demolish a nuclear cooling tower to impress President Bush back in 2008.  The strategy worked because the Bush administration cut a deal with Kim.

The old cooling tower was easily replaceable and did nothing to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.  Kim the younger could try some kind of similar spectacle as well to make people believe in his “pretend denuclearization” strategy.

Moon says #SouthKorea can trade rice for #NorthKorea's coal, raw material, rare earths. But coal, titanium, iron, gold, nickel, etc are all banned. But he already violated sanctions by importing #NK coal, providing oil to #NK, etc, w no consequences. So he'll press on. https://t.co/dCL5dzgK6x

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) September 12, 2018

This report makes me wonder if there is a arms for petroleum agreement going on between North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China?:

North Korea has reportedly sold arms and military equipment to Middle East countries in violation of the United Nations sanctions.

The Wall Street Journal issued the report on Saturday citing a secret report by experts monitoring UN sanctions against the regime.

The UN experts said in the report that they found new evidence of the North’s arms smuggling and illegal financial transactions.

The panel said that the evidence showed North Korea sold tanks, ballistic missiles and rocket-propelled grenades to Yemen’s Houthi insurgents and other entities via a Syrian arms smuggler.

The UN report said that North Korean arms experts had visited a munitions factory in Syria multiple times. It added that the North’s imports of petroleum products surged on the routes involving Russian and Chinese vessels.  [KBS World Radio]

Just like President Trump is claimed in Woodward’s book to have been exploring the ordering of a preemptive strike on North Korea, what is the big deal if he was likewise exploring the option of removing dependents from South Korea?

Woodward writes that Trump even proposed sending a tweet declaring that he was ordering all U.S. military dependents out of South Korea, an act that would likely be read in North Korea as a signal that the United States was preparing for war.

The tweet never went out.

On Dec. 3, after another North Korean ICBM test, Sen. Lindsay Graham advocated removing U.S. troops’ families from South Korea in an interview. The book says that, the following day, McMaster was informed that Ri Su-yong, a vice chairman of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee and director of the committee’s International Affairs Department, told intermediaries “that the North would take the evacuation of U.S. civilians as a sign of imminent attack.”

Hence, withdrawing the dependents of American troops should be “one of the last cards to play,” and the possible tweets were described by Woodward as having “scared the daylights out of the Pentagon leadership,” Defense Secretary James Mattis and Dunford.

Graham, in a change of heart, was said to have advised Trump in a phone call in January that a decision to withdraw U.S. troops’ families is “hard to go back” on, and that it would “rock the South Korean stock market and the Japanese economy.” When asked by Trump if he should delay such an evacuation, Graham, who has been a hard-liner on the North, was quoted as telling him, “I don’t think you should ever start this process unless you’re ready to go to war.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

If what is discussed in Woodward’s book is true, Trump like many people not familiar with the situation, may have thought removing dependents would be a good idea to make sure a preemptive strike option could be executed if needed.  Clearly his aides and Senator Graham advised him otherwise of the difficulties and ramifications of removing dependents from South Korea and the President decided otherwise.

Valentina Ivanovna Matvienko, head of the Russian Federation Council, leaves Pyongyang on Sept. 10, 2018, after attending North Korea’s founding day celebration a day earlier in this photo from the North’s Korean Central News Agency. The media outlet released a series of photos showing foreign guests leaving after attending the ceremony.  (Yonhap)

It will be interesting to see how many more requests General Brooks will be receiving from the Moon administration to send materials across the border:

The U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC) authorized South Korea vehicles and personnel to cross the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) to support construction of communication infrastructure that will be used in inter-Korean business projects.

“Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, Commander of United Nations Command, authorized vehicles and personnel from the Republic of Korea to cross the Military Demarcation Line today in the eastern transportation corridor to support construction of communication infrastructure to be used between the Republic of Korea and North Korea,” said the UNC press release, Thursday.

“The approval allows more material than what is needed to repair communication lines, and will result in the construction of a communication building.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Huge change in North Korean propaganda from 2017 to 2018.

Same place, new middle poster:

Aug 29, 2017: “All of the mainland U.S. is within striking range”

Sept 12, 2018: “Let us accelerate the advance of our revolution by concentrating on the building of a socialist economy.” pic.twitter.com/TX8jHYZ82q

— Will Ripley (@willripleyCNN) September 12, 2018

While the Moon administration continues to play nice with North Korea, the Trump administration continues to add new sanctions over the Kim regime’s nuclear program:

The United States on Thursday sanctioned two companies in China and Russia for allegedly facilitating North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

The Department of the Treasury also sanctioned a North Korean individual in the latest set of sanctions aimed at denuclearizing the regime.

Thursday’s action particularly targets the revenue earned for the Pyongyang government by North Korean IT workers overseas.

The Treasury said it is sanctioning China Silver Star, which is “nominally a Chinese IT company, but in reality … managed and controlled by North Koreans.”

Also being sanctioned is the firm’s CEO, Jong Song-hwa, and its Russia-based front company, Volasys Silver Star.

“These actions are intended to stop the flow of illicit revenue to North Korea from overseas information technology workers disguising their true identities and hiding behind front companies, aliases, and third-party nationals,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but it appears that the Trump administration is not ready to sign up for “pretend denuclearization“.