I think the only way that Iran turns into a shattered Syria like state that Israel is pushing for is if the regime’s oil wealth is stopped. However, doing that would likely risk retaliation against the oil infrastructure of their Gulf neighbor countries. Would the U.S. risk the Gulf Arab oil infrastructure being destroyed to take down the regime? I guess we will see. However, if the oil is allowed to flow the IRGC will use the vast majority of those funds to rearm as quickly as possible:

As the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran prolongs, concerns are growing that Iran could transform into a “giant North Korea.” There are significant fears that Iran might transition into a closed military state centered around its military elite following a large-scale U.S. attack.

Foreign Policy (FP), a U.S. diplomatic and security-focused media outlet, recently highlighted this scenario in an article titled “Does Iran’s Future Look Like Cuba, Syria or North Korea?” FP noted, “Arab Gulf states are increasingly leaning toward effectively quarantining Iran until it becomes something akin to Cuba: diminished and rigid but contained.” In contrast, Israel aims to collapse the Iranian regime to eliminate its regional influence, making it resemble “civil-war era Syria,” according to FP’s analysis. However, concerns arise that Iran is heading toward the worst-case scenario: becoming a “North Korea-style state.” FP warned, “The reality, however, is that both approaches might not turn out the way their advocates hope,” adding, “There is a strong risk that Iran will end up not like Cuba or Syria, but instead like North Korea—a garrison state that survives by becoming more dangerous, not less.”

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but it appears the U.S. is going to adopt the lawnmower strategy Israel has used for years against Hamas and Hezbollah. Bomb Iran every few years to diminish their military capacity every time they rebuild it to a point they can threaten their neighbors. It won’t be popular having to continually go back and bomb them, but the only alternative is to allow them to reconstitute their drone and missile programs.

The IRGC has been attempting to build enough missiles and drones to hold its neighbors and Europe hostage in order to build a nuclear bomb. The attack on Diego Garcia shows they have developed a missile to attack Europe. Would the U.S. take action against Iran in the future if ballistic missiles are a threat to rain down on London, Paris, and Berlin along with Israel and the Gulf Arab nations?

This is essentially what the U.S. faced with North Korea in the 1990’s. Bill Clinton decided not to take military action to stop North Korea’s nuclear program because of the risk of an artillery attack on Seoul where millions of people and South Korea’s economy is centered around. We are now living with the consequences of that decision to this day.

With how expensive it is to eat out nowadays I can understand why this map has become so popular:

A graduate student surnamed Jeong, living in Seoul’s Seongbuk District, recently began using a crowdsourced map of cheap eateries to cope with rising dining costs.

“I came across it on an online campus community and found a noodle place for 5,000 won ($3.30),” she said. “I got tired of cafeteria food, but eating out is expensive these days since most places cost 10,000 to 15,000 won. It’s a burden for a student like me.” 

The website, Geojimap, which translates to “map for beggars,” has gone viral among young Koreans seeking budget meals as surging food prices take a toll on their wallets.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

If birth right citizenship gets overturned it would probably be the singularly most important way to greatly reduce illegal immigration into the U.S. This is because it would end a major incentive illegal immigrants have to come to America to include Koreans looking to have their kids avoid mandatory military service with American citizenship:

With President Donald Trump attending, the Supreme Court on Wednesday heard arguments over the legality of his directive to restrict birthright citizenship in the U.S., a contentious part of his efforts to curb immigration that would upend long-held understanding of a key constitutional provision.

Some of the justices including conservative Chief Justice John Roberts asked tough questions of the Justice Department lawyer defending Trump’s action.

The justices were hearing the Trump administration’s appeal of a lower court’s decision that blocked his executive order directing U.S. agencies not to recognize the citizenship of children born in the United States if neither parent is an American citizen or legal permanent resident, also called a “green card” holder.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

If you believe what President Trump is saying, it is looking more and more like the U.S. will end the war without re-opening the Strait of Hormuz:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that South Korea was “not helpful” to the United States, noting the presence of American troops “in harm’s way” in the Asian country “right next to a nuclear force,” as he highlighted the need for countries to secure the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Trump made the remarks during an annual Easter luncheon at the White House, singling out South Korea, China, Japan and France as he reiterated that those countries that rely on the strait for energy imports should act to help reopen the waterway, a crucial oil shipping route.

“Let the European countries do it. Let South Korea, who was not helpful to us, by the way. … You know, we only have 45,000 soldiers in harm’s way over there, right next to a nuclear force. Let South Korea do it,” he said, referring to the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea and North Korea’s nuclear force.

“Let Japan do it. They get 90 percent of the oil from the strait. Let China do it. Let them all do it,” he added.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but if I had to guess the U.S. casualty projections to re-open the Strait are not worth it to Trump in a mid-term election year. Due to the U.S.’s ample energy supplies, Americans are not going to experience fuel shortages like much of the rest of the world and this gives Trump the opportunity to push the problem on to nations reliant on Gulf energy sources to solve.

If Iran can make people pay a toll to cross the Strait of Hormuz what is to then stop other countries to do the same thing at other strategic waterways? Is everyone ready to pay a tax to the Chinese to cross the South China Sea next?:

The Iranian parliament’s approval on the 30th (local time) of the management plan to collect tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz signifies its intention to fully control the global energy trade gateway, through which approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil passes, and turn it into a “money pipeline.” If this plan is actually implemented, it is expected to deal a significant blow to the global economy. Concerns are growing that South Korean refiners will face unavoidable additional costs in the trillions of won, leading to soaring domestic oil prices and inflation across industries.

The management plan explicitly prohibits the passage of vessels with American or Israeli nationality or ownership. It also blocks access to the strait for ships from countries that have unilaterally imposed sanctions on Iran. The plan also specifies that tolls will be collected in the national currency, the rial.

Chosun Daily

You can read more at the link.

How long will it be before they start using children to smuggle drugs into South Korea?:

A, 18 years old, was caught attempting to smuggle 3 kg of methamphetamine and 2.9 kg of ketamine worth 400 million Korean won in wholesale value from Thailand to South Korea on three separate occasions between September and October 2024 and was referred to trial in November of the same year. 

A drug supplier, who exploited the fact that teenagers are less likely to be suspected during immigration processes, proposed through Telegram, “I will pay 1 million Korean won per 100 grams of transported drugs,” which A accepted as a “high-income part-time job.” While A was sentenced to 6 years and 6 months in prison last year, the supplier has yet to be apprehended.

As seen in this case, even when lower-level drug distributors are arrested, their higher-level supervisors often evade law enforcement. This is because as the government strengthens drug crackdowns, drug traffickers are also seeking gaps in the investigative net.

Chosun Daily

I recommend reading the rest at the link, but it gives an interesting look at how drug dealers are distributing drugs within South Korea by taking payments over Telegram and sending grid coordinates to locations in the countryside where the drugs are hidden.

A significant upgrade to air power in the Pacific is underway at Misawa Airbase:

A contingent of fifth-generation stealth fighters arrived at Misawa Air Base in northeastern Japan over the weekend, the first replacements the Air Force pledged for the F-16 Fighting Falcons stationed there.

An undisclosed number of F-35A Lightning II aircraft landed Saturday at the air base at the northern tip of Honshu, the largest of Japan’s four main islands, according to images posted online by the Defense Visual Information Distribution System. The new fighters were assigned to the 13th Fighter Squadron at Misawa. The Air Force in 2024 announced plans to replace the 36 F-16 Fighting Falcons at Misawa with 48 F-35As.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.