Category: US-ROK Alliance

My theory on the current US-ROK cost sharing negotiations is that this will ultimately be tied to a successful second Trump-Kim summit and US dropping sanctions on North Korea.  If the Trump administration drops sanctions I suspect that the Moon administration will cut a favorable US-ROK cost sharing deal to pay back President Trump.  If sanctions are not dropped the Moon administration will likely continue to play hardball on this issue:

Senior diplomats of the two sides had three-day talks on the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) to set the amount of Seoul’s financial contributions for the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in Honolulu, Hawaii. It was the ninth round of bargaining, as the existing accord, which took effect in 2014, is to expire at the end of this year.

“There was some progress, but no final agreement was reached,” the foreign ministry official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.

It seems like the Trump administration is going to keep playing along with the so called peace process by smiling for photo ops and saying the right things.  However, so far it appears they will not drop sanctions until North Korea does something to show they are serious about denuclearization.  At some point this will come to a crisis and it seems the Trump administration wants the Kim regime to be the ones blamed for starting the crisis:

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence asked South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday to communicate and talk more closely with North Korea, Moon’s spokesman said.

The remark, made during a meeting with Moon in Singapore on the sidelines of regional summits, is seen as a call for Moon to play greater roles so that upcoming talks between the U.S. and the North, including a second summit, will be able make progress.

Pence was quoted as telling reporters after the meeting with Moon at the Suntec convention center that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un next year and that the two sides are discussing details.

“My understanding is that (Pence) made a request to Moon separately even as talks are under way between the North and the U.S.,” the South’s presidential spokesman, Kim Eui-kyeom, told reporters.

Moon agreed to play active roles while closely communicating with both sides, Kim said.

Kim said that there was no mention of sanctions during the meeting.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

I was wondering how long North Korea would wait before complaining about this announced joint exercise:

North Korea has stepped up criticism of South Korea and the United States for their resumption of joint marine exercises, calling the move a military act against the ongoing peace momentum on the Korean Peninsula.

The verbal provocation came a week after the allies resumed the marine drills, the Korea Marine exercise Program (KMEP), for two weeks in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province. Seoul and Washington suspended a series of joint military drills this year in consideration of the reconciliatory relations between the two Koreas, but the allies decided to resume the drill to enhance defense readiness here.

“Seoul and Washington should stop such a military act and remain consistent in the ongoing tension-easing on the peninsula by stopping any military exercises,” Rodong Sinmun, the North’s official mouthpiece, said Monday.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Headline misleading. The peninsula is not engulfed in active war. De facto peace has been kept–by deterrence–since 1953, grated there are varying degrees of "peace."

A mere declaration of peace or even a peace treaty does not denote real peace. Just ask Saigon circa 1975. https://t.co/GNFruvaoO9

— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) November 9, 2018

Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK:

I guess this exercise was small enough to not draw the ire of Kim Jong-un:

South Korea and the United States have resumed a joint Marine exercise after a six-month hiatus.

According to the Defense Ministry, South Korean Marine Corps and American troops from the III Marine Expeditionary Force stationed in Okinawa, Japan, launched a two-week “Korea Marine Exercise Program,” or KMEP, in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province on Monday.

Around 500 military personnel are taking part in the annual drill intended to maintain joint defense readiness.

The two sides will begin actual maneuvers with troops, amphibious assault vehicles and other equipment on Tuesday.   [KBS World Radio]

You can read more at the link.

So does anyone really think a ROK general is really going to command US forces during a conflict?:

Seoul and Washington signed a strategic guideline on Wednesday that paves the way for a Korean-led combined defense mechanism after the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) from the United States.

South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis convened the 50th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Pentagon and signed the Alliance Guiding Principles to ensure a strong combined defense posture following the transfer.

The mutual guideline guarantees the continued stationing of U.S. troops in Korea and the retaining of the Combined Forces Command (CFC) and the United Nations Command after the transfer of Opcon from Washington to Seoul. It places a four-star Korean general as the head of the future CFC, with a U.S. general serving as deputy commander.

Washington further committed to a continued extension to Korea of its nuclear, conventional and missile defense deterrence capacities even after the transfer. This should quell some concerns in Seoul that the transfer of Opcon could lead to the withdrawal of some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea or the pulling back of American extended deterrence over the peninsula.

The two sides will work toward an initial operational capability (IOC) certification of a Korea-led combined defense posture next year. However, the specific timing of the Opcon transition will be determined later.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but this to me seems to be more of creating the impression to the Washington establishment that the Moon administration wants US forces to stay in Korea while using their surrogates to make life difficult for them.  Look no further then the current THAAD site in South Korea.

Ambassador Harris recently made a very subtle message to the Moon administration in regards to sanctions on North Korea:

South Korea and the United States should have a “common voice” in dealing with North Korea rather than putting priority on improving inter-Korean relations over denuclearization, U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Harry Harris said Wednesday.

“We are, of course, cognizant of the priority that President Moon Jae-in and his administration have placed on improving South-North relations. I believe this inter-Korean dialogue must remain linked to denuclearization, and South Korea synchronized with the United States,” Harris said during a seminar co-hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and the Wilson Center.

“There, of course, remains a lot of work to be done, but I believe that if the United States and South Korea continue to approach North Korea with a common voice, we can turn the commitments that were made in Pyongyang, Panmunjeom and Singapore into reality.”

He made his remarks amid the recent dissonance between South Korea and the U.S. in dealing with easing sanction against the North. He reiterated Washington’s stance of maintaining sanctions against Pyongyang, while expressing discontent over Seoul’s move to prioritize improving inter-Korean relations and easing the sanctions.

The two countries have been showing different approaches to achieving the denuclearization of North Korea. President Moon Jae-in, on a state visit to European countries, has urge them to ease the sanctions somewhat. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been warning South Korea that lifting them, along with related actions, should only take place with Washington’s approval.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Of course the Moon administration is going to continue to say USFK will stay after the signing of any North Korean peace treaty:

As the ongoing peace gestures from North Korea cast doubt on the future of the United States Forces Korea (USFK), a group of U.S.-allied countries ― such as South Korea and Japan ― are on track to underline the need to maintain U.S. troops here.

The controversy surrounding the USFK started making headlines here in June when U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his strong desire to withdraw or at least reduce the U.S. military presence here, saying South Korea does not properly pay for its maintenance cost.

For South Korea and Japan, however, the possible withdrawal of the USFK is a worst-case scenario to weaken their security readiness and generate a potential crack in their long-term defense posture.

The USFK here has for decades served as a war deterrent, preventing North Korea from staging large-scale military provocations against the South since 1953 when the Korean War ended in an armistice.

But starting this year, North Korea has urged the South and the U.S. to declare an end to the war as soon as possible, in what critics view is the regime’s apparent move to pull out the potentially threatening U.S. troops.

For this reason, there is a lingering concern that the ongoing peace mood and the possible declaration of the technical state of war here may result in the withdrawal of the USFK in the end.

South Korea is in a position that the USFK withdrawal will never turn into reality at least for the time being.

Park Han-ki, the nominee for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said last week the potential declaration of the end to the war has nothing to do with the existence of the United Nations Command (UNC) and the USFK.

“Even if the two Koreas declare an end to the war, the Korean Armistice Agreement (signed in 1953 between the North, China and the UNC) will remain in effect,” Park said in a National Assembly confirmation hearing, dispelling concerns over the possible withdrawal of the USFK.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in also recently called the USFK a peacekeeper here, saying the U.S. troops will continue to play a role for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.  [Korea Times]

What the ROK government is saying now about USFK is intended to convince the Trump administration and US politicians to go along with signing the peace treaty.  At a time to be determined in the future the South Korean leftist activists will then be unleashed on USFK to protest every car accident, oil spill, etc. in effort to make life difficult for the US military presence in South Korea.  It will essentially be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again.

In addition to the protests the ROK could also play hardball on funding the US-ROK alliance and make environmental compensation demands over the closing of Yongsan Garrison.  The Moon administration’s goal will be to convince the Trump administration to withdraw US troops on its own accord and not at the request of the ROK government.

President Moon is pretty repeating the North Korean, Russian, and  positions on the Korean peninsula:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said a “new order” was in the making on the Korean Peninsula, with a rapidly changing diplomatic dynamic surrounding North Korea.

Remarking on an expected visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Russia and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible reciprocal visit to Pyongyang in coming weeks, Moon said a new order was being “established on the Korean Peninsula,” which he said would pave the way for setting up a new order in Northeast Asia during a cabinet meeting at the Blue House.

“Aside from the second North-U.S. summit,” he said, “North Korean leader Kim is expected to visit Russia while Xi Jinping of China is expected to make a visit to the North. A North-Japan summit is also an open possibility.

“In other words, a new order on the Korean Peninsula is being established.”

Moon went on to say that what he described as a “new order” was a must for the two Koreas to set in place a permanent peace regime and achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but the “new order” Moon is likely talking about is the confederation between North and South Korea on the Kim regime’s terms.  Also notice how he says the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”.  This is the same terms the North Koreans have been using.  South Korea does not have nuclear weapons so the term can only mean ending the US nuclear umbrella protection of South Korea and thus the end of the US-ROK alliance.

It seems it is becoming clearer and clearer that this is the ultimate end game for the Moon administration.