It looks like the next US-ROK military exercise will be delayed:
China’s state-run Xinhua news agency says the decision by South Korea and the U.S. to delay their announcement on joint military drill plans to after the North Korea-U.S. summit is in consideration of Pyongyang.
The report said Saturday the postponement appears to have considered North Korea’s possible reaction to the joint drills ahead of its summit with Washington.
It noted the regime has criticized South Korea-U.S. exercises as rehearsals for invading the North.
Xinhua said the decision to delay the announcement likely reflects the belief that ongoing working-level negotiations between the North and the U.S. may be affected.
The report added that at the time of the first North Korea-U.S. summit last year, Seoul and Washington also pushed back their joint drills to after the summit meeting.
This poll shows why the Moon administration feels it can play hardball with the US in regards to increasing the funding for USFK, it is a popular opinion to do so:
In a poll fielded in South Korea in late January by RealMeter, a majority of South Koreans (59%) oppose accommodating US demands on increased burden sharing support (26% are in favor). It is especially notable that there are virtually no significant divides across demographic groups. Pluralities—and majorities in most cases—of all ages, regions, ideological leanings, and party affiliations are in opposition to Seoul giving in to US demands. The lone outlier are supporters of Liberty Party Korea, the main conservative opposition party. Even there, 45 percent support giving in to US demands versus 39 percent who oppose.
You can read more at the link, but even threatening to withdraw US troops does little to impact the numbers. This leads me to believe that Koreans do not believe that President Trump would actually pull out troops.
I would be interested to see what the poll numbers would be if Koreans were asked what is more important, paying more to Kim Jong-un or the US-ROK alliance?
"The Moon administration…denying the legitimacy of its own nation & bringing down liberal democracy under the cloak of “inter-Korean collaboration” initiated by the unreliable Pyongyang regime." "We should spend money…for the ROK-U.S. alliance rather than for the NK regime" https://t.co/1lZoV6bGsA
If this report is accurate it appears the ROK government has once again gotten what they wanted from the US-ROK cost sharing negotiations with the caveat that it is only a one year deal:
Camp Humphreys, a U.S. Forces Korea base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, is seen in this file photo. Yonhap
South Korea and the United States are expected to strike a deal this week on splitting the cost for the stationing of American troops here as the allies consider the need to work closely together to denuclearize North Korea, a diplomatic source said Sunday.
The U.S. will likely accept South Korea’s request for a contribution of less than US$1 billion (1.1 trillion won) in 2019.
Seoul plans to sign a one-year contract as Washington demands, according to the source.
Last year, South Korea paid around 960 billion won for the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) under a five-year deal signed in 2014.
You can read more at the link, but since this is a one year deal I would expect the Trump administration to ratchet up the pressure again for the ROK to pay $1.2 billion when negotiations begin again later this year.
#GenDunford spoke with his #ROK counterpart by phone yesterday to thank him for his support over the past year and reaffirm his commitment to the 🇺🇸-🇰🇷alliance, a lynchpin of stability and security in the #IndoPacific.
I think President Moon is telling the truth here because President Trump is likely letting his surrogates negotiate the ultimate price for him. Trump though must have given his surrogates guidance on the lowest cost he is willing to accept:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday dismissed recent reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has named a specific price for keeping U.S. troops in South Korea, saying the leaders simply do not speak in such a manner. “Not just President Trump but no leader of any country in the world speaks in such a manner,” the president was quoted as saying. “Such reports can be an insult to President Trump,” he added, according to his spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom. Moon’s remarks follow news reports that claimed the U.S. president may have asked South Korea to pay US$1.2 billion as part of costs to maintain U.S. Forces in Korea.
It appears that the Trump administration is settling for the lowest sum they are willing to take which is $1 billion for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance:
The United States has demanded South Korea pay $1 billion (1.12 trillion won) in annual defense costs sharing, as its final proposal to months of negotiations on the issue, according to officials, Wednesday.
South Korea flatly rejected the demand, maintaining its position that it cannot pay more than 1 trillion won.
“U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris met with South Korea’s National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong last month to deliver the final proposal,” a government official said, asking for anonymity.
On top of that, Washington also urged Seoul to renew the cost-sharing contract each year from the current five year, according to the official.
You can read more at the link, but I have been saying that I don’t think this issue will be resolved until after the Trump-Kim2 summit. If Seoul gets what they want from the US during the summit then they may be more flexible on paying more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance.
It will be interesting to see if the USFK cost sharing issue is in fact used to drawdown troops from South Korea:
President Donald Trump speaks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and troops from both nations over lunch at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2017.
While the United States and North Korea try to revive nuclear talks, another dispute is simmering on the southern half of the peninsula over funding for U.S. forces. Seoul and Washington failed to agree on a new cost-sharing deal for the 28,500 U.S. servicemembers stationed in South Korea before the latest five-year contract expired on Dec. 31. That has raised fears that President Donald Trump may threaten to draw down forces as he prepares for a possible second summit with North Korea. The longtime allies held 10 rounds of talks since March but remained deadlocked as the new year began over Washington’s reported demand that South Korea increase its contribution by as much as 150 percent.
You can read more at the link, but analysts do have a point that if troops levels are reduced the Trump administration can blame South Korea for not increasing their contributions to the funding of the US-ROK alliance instead of saying it is a concession to North Korea.
If troops levels were to be cut it seems the easiest thing to do would be to stop the rotational brigade from deploying to South Korea.
I have maintained that the USFK cost sharing talks will likely only be resolved as part of a North Korea denuclearization deal. If President Trump signs a peace treaty to end the Korean War and drops sanctions on North Korea, the Moon administration will likely give him what he wants on the cost sharing deal:
As Seoul and Washington are currently deadlocked in negotiations to renew their bilateral defense cost-sharing agreement, the next level of talks will likely happen at a higher level.
“An 11th round of [the current] talks likely won’t be scheduled,” a high-level Korean government official told reporters Thursday. “Instead, it may be negotiated at a higher level.”
On the possibility of the deal on sharing the cost of stationing of U.S. troops in Korea then being negotiated between Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump, the official said, “all possibilities are open.”
Since last March, Seoul and Washington have been negotiating the renewal of the bilateral Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a multiyear cost-sharing deal under the Status of Forces Agreement, or SOFA, to maintain the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
Chang Won-sam has led the Korean delegation for the 10th SMA, while the U.S. delegation has been led by Timothy Betts, acting deputy assistant secretary for plans, programs and operations at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.
The tenth round of talks took place mid-December, but the two sides failed to narrow their differences before the current deal expired on Dec. 31. As the two sides have been unable to resolve their differences, diplomatic sources have indicated that the issue now needs to be solved by the two leaders.
The government official, however, said that “various channels of negotiations for the cost-sharing deal are being considered,” including between ambassadors, the Blue House National Security Office and White House National Security Council, as well as between South Korea’s foreign minister and U.S. secretary of state.
