Here is an interview with Bill Taylor who is a senior international security advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has some interesting things to say about the current state of the US-ROK relations:
Back in 1961-62, when I spent my first year in Korea, communications technology was so basic and slow that local events around our base and in Seoul were not reported widely. Elections and the opinion of opposing political parties were not big news. Organizations advocating important causes did not generally lead to mass demonstrations.
With exceptions such as the Gwangju massacre, where there were major differences between Seoul and Washington, most issues were sorted out routinely between government representatives without becoming major news in the print and radio media. Those days are long gone. Years of accelerating information technology, economic growth, establishment of democratic institutions in Korea and the end of The Cold War have changed Korea profoundly.
Increasingly, the media seizes on and reports issues in sensational ways that tend to polarize public opinion regarding issues pertaining to the U.S.-ROK alliance.
Mr. Taylor does make a good observation that South Korea has long had the anti-US groups operating in it; it is just that now these groups have the ability through technology to have their messages heard by the masses through television and most importantly the internet.
Here is what he has to say about the current North Korea nuclear crisis:
I would first urge my own government to support the lead of our ally the Republic of Korea in dealing with North Korea based on the fundamental premise that Seoul probably has a better understanding of Pyongyang’s intentions and capabilities than does Washington. Second, I would internalize the fact that, historically, wars start more often than not by accident or miscalculation at times of high tension and that we Americans should consider a war with North Korea unthinkable.
The outcome of war would be a classic Pyrrhic victory. That is we would win a high tech war in a matter of days or weeks while sustaining hundreds of thousands of casualties among our own people. Third, while sustaining deterrent capabilities, I would urge direct U.S. talks with North Korea in the context of the Six-Party Talks — as all other members of that forum keep urging. When The World’s Sole Superpower can’t/won’t talk directly with another sovereign state to achieve our own vital interests, something is amiss.
This here just didn’t make since to me. Mr. Taylor wants the US to let South Korea take the lead in negotiations with the North, but at the same time wants the US to conduct direct talks with the North. The US has been consistent on trying to have South Korea handle the nuclear issue, but the only thing the South Korean government is interested in is appeasement of the North through the Sunshine Policy to keep the regime afloat and delay unification so South Koreans can keep driving Hyundais and vacationing on Guam instead of having to rebuild North Korea. The US has amazingly enough gotten more accomplished on this issue through the Chinese government than anything Seoul has ever done.
One thing I can agree on with Mr. Taylor is that war should be unthinkable, but as far as sustaining hundreds of thousands US casualties if war broke out; the US wouldn’t have to worry about that troops on the peninsula were reduced and consolidated on Camp Humphreys as planned or pull them out all together. The ROK Army would be the ones sustaining the hundreds of thousands of casualties while the US could provide logistical and aerial support.
Here is what he has to say about the war time command issue:
I would urge patience on the part of the government of the Republic of Korea, and a concerted effort to work on U.S.-ROK alliance issues such as change in wartime command and control in a quiet, methodical way focused on national security strategy that avoids sensationalism in Korean domestic politics.
Good luck in trying to stop politicians, anti-US groups, and the media from demagoging this issue to advance their causes because it just isn’t going to happen under the leadership of President Roh. He in fact encourages it.
Anyway the interview is a decent read and the story about Mr. Taylor arriving for the first time to Korea in the middle of Park Chung-hee’s coup is quite interesting as well. Worth checking out.
