Don’t look for the White House or the Defense Department to do South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun in favors and Mr. Rumsfeld has just confirmed what was speculated President Bush had already approved; the early transfer of war time command to South Korea:
U.S. Defense Secretary of Donald Rumsfeld recently told Seoul the U.S. wants to hand over wartime operational control of Korea’s armed forces in 2009, it emerged Sunday. That signals tough negotiations ahead since Korea¿s proposed date is 2012.
Rumsfeld wrote to his Korean counterpart Yoon Kwang-ung on Aug. 17 saying Washington plans to hand over wartime operational control to South Korea in 2009, a government official said. It was the first time the U.S. defense chief has officially confirmed the open secret.
This confirms my earlier speculation that the Bush administration wants to make sure that President Roh reaps what he sows on his watch as President of Korea. The Korean government has been pushing for a 2012 date for the hand over which would mean that President Roh wouldn’t be in office when the aftermath of his anti-US policies would really be felt. However, with the 2009 handover that means that probably next year further troop cuts and transformation of the US-ROK alliance would begin. That would mean that any effects a US draw down or complete pull out would have on the economy would begin on Roh’s watch. Without a doubt it appears that Roh will go down as the most incompetent President in the history of the Republic of Korea. That’s no small accomplishment because South Korea hasn’t really hasn’t been blessed with to many enlightened leaders since the founding of the Republic after World War II.
What I like even more is that the US government is even rubbing salt into President Roh’s political wounds by demanding a more equitable defense cost sharing of the alliance:
In the letter, Rumsfeld also proposed that two allies divide the upkeep cost of the USFK at an “equitable” rate, which pundits say means 50:50. Korea currently shoulders slightly less than 40 percent of the cost. He also pressed for a new bombing range for the USFK to replace a facility in Maehyang-ri that was shut down, and expressed hope that the two sides can sort out their differences over who should pay for the environmental cleanup at bases the USFK is vacating.
It is going to be interesting to see what excuse the Roh’s government is going to come up with, about why they can’t share the cost of the alliance equitably when they have war time operational control, not the US. Roh has been talking about having a more equal alliance with the US since he took over as President in 2002, well guess what, let’s see if his money is where his mouth is.
Just think of the cost this news is going to have on the South Korean tax payer. There is going to have to be a number of system that have to bough immediately to meet the hand over timeline plus if Korea is forced to pay 50% of the alliance costs that is just even more money the South Korean tax payer is going to have come up with. Is it any wonder why the Korean government rather sell apartments on the handed over Yongsan Garrison land instead of turning it all into a park?
Not only is the economic security of the peninsula being compromised by Roh’s incompetence, but also the national security as well because even if the government purchases the needed systems in time there is no way they will have trained soldiers and leaders to operate and command those system in time for the turn over. The US government takes it’s security commitments very seriously and initially were trying to approach the war time command issue in a rational manner to not compromise the security of the peninsula and still meet the US military’s transformation plans, but with Roh and his minions politicizing the issue there is going to be serious national security issues on the peninsula, which will allow the North Koreans to really extort money from South Korea because his military threat to South Korea will be greatly enhanced by a US pull out or reduction.
That is what the lone big question is that is remaining for the US, will it be a complete US pull out or just a reduction? I don’t even think the White House knows yet, but I do think they wouldn’t be shy about pulling the trigger on a complete US pull out if they don’t get what they want like equitable cost sharing, the speed up of the camp relocation issue, and a bombing range for the Air Force.
What about President Roh? Well look for him to try and cover his ass by continuing to make grand proclamations that the ROK Army is ready now for the hand over even though they aren’t and he knows it, while the ROK Army turns to their retired brass and veterans to spearhead a drive to delay the hand over.
I think it would be best for the ROK military to cut their loses and do what they can to just keep whatever US presence on the peninsula that they can, but it is quite clear now that the hand over is going to be 2009 and it is no sure thing that a robust US presence is going to remain on the peninsula at all. To make things even worse there is so far no guarantee that the Yankee cavalry will come save South Korea with a massive deployment of forces in case of hostilities:
But abandoning OPLAN 5027, which guarantees automatic U.S. reinforcements, and replacing it with a piece of paper that will require congressional approval, however, is like swapping cash for a dubious promissory note. What’s more, we will have to pour W620 trillion into our self-defense by 2020 to exercise sole operational control of our forces.
President Roh wanted an “independent” Korea, well it looks like he got it.
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The Marmot has more on this issue and make sure you read Brendon Carr’s posting in the comment section as well. It’s a great read.
Tags: korea, us, roh, bush, rumsfeld