Kim Ki-choon, former Cheong Wa Dae chief of staff, enters a Seoul court on June 8, 2018, to be tried on charges that he kept a secret register of artists deemed critical of the Park Geun-hye government to disadvantage them. (Yonhap)
Over at One Free Korea he has a posting up that analyzes the recent joint statement between President Trump and Kim Jong-un:
Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.
As always I recommend reading OFK’s entire well thought out analysis at the link.
I fully agree that everyone should be skeptical of this joint statement. However, just like the concessions the Kim regime has made so far, the concessions the Trump administration have made are all easily reversible. Something else to keep in mind is that we don’t know what was privately agreed to during discussions with the regime. I think we should wait for some time to pass to see how this plays out before we declare this summit just more failed diplomacy between the US and North Korea. If the Trump administration drops sanctions for little to nothing in return, that should be the trigger to hit the panic button and declare that Groundhog Day has restarted once again with North Korea.
However, the way President Trump has criticized past administrations for getting little to nothing in return from North Korea in past agreements, I would be very surprised if he chooses this route. I tend to think that the Trump administration is giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and if they don’t reach a comprehensive agreement sanctions will remain in place. As long as the sanctions are in place ROK President Moon Jae-in will not be able to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.
This causes me to think that current negotiations are about what irreversible actions the Kim regime must execute in return for dropping of sanctions. If the North Koreans drag out negotiations like they historically have done, the Trump administration can easily turn back on the Key Resolve joint exercise scheduled each spring and implement more sanctions to pressure the regime to get a deal done. If the Kim regime begins another provocation cycle in response the Trump administration can say they have tried everything to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue and military action may become a more viable option.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that and diplomacy between the US and North Korea works for once, but history does indicate we should all remain skeptical until we actually see it happen.
Keep in mind that the destruction of a missile engine test site is something easily reversible by North Korea and not a true example of something that proves they are committed to eliminating their ICBM program:
North Koreans view local newspaper coverage of the meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump at a subway station in Pyongyang on Wednesday. The photos on the front page of the ruling Workers’ Party newspaper shows Kim warmly shaking hands with Trump. [AP/YONHAP]If Pyongyang destroys a “major missile engine testing site,” as U.S. President Donald Trump said it would on Tuesday after his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the move could indicate the young leader’s willingness to denuclearize.But as with the dismantlement of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site last month, just how far the regime will go in closing down the area – and whether it will have any effect on its nuclear capabilities – remains unknown.
Trump told international reporters in Singapore on Tuesday after signing a joint statement with Kim that the North Korean leader told him he was going to destroy a major missile engine testing site.
The location of the site was not given, and Trump did not go into the details of the test site’s destruction.
The agreement wasn’t included in their statement, said Trump, because he and Kim “agreed to that” after the document was signed.
“That’s a big thing, for the missiles that they were testing, the site is going to be destroyed very soon,” Trump said. “I said, ‘Do me a favor. You’ve got this missile engine testing site. We know where it is because of the heat.’” When Trump asked Kim whether he could close the site, the North Korean leader reportedly said he would.
“I think he’ll do it. I really believe that,” Trump said. “They have a very powerful engine testing site that, again, we’re able to see because of the heat that it emits.”
He added, “Honestly, I think he’s going to do these things. I may be wrong. I mean, I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘Hey, I was wrong.’ I don’t know that I’ll ever admit that but I’ll find some kind of an excuse.”
North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) made no mention of the engine test site on Wednesday in its coverage of the summit, but said that Kim said his country would take “additional good-will measures” if Washington takes “genuine measures” to build trust in order to improve the North-U.S. relationship.
Both leaders shared thoughts on the process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula in a “step-by-step” manner, according to the KCNA.
South Korean analysts believe Trump was referring to the engine testing site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, along the west coast of the country. In the past, North Korea test-fired several ballistic missiles into the East Sea from the site.
North Korean media reported last year that a successful engine test was carried out at the site on March 18. Kim was so pleased, he was pictured giving a piggyback ride to an engineer.
The Cholsan test site is believed to be where North Korea developed its engine for the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, which can target the U.S. mainland. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
What is interesting about this is that before the summit North Korea was reported to already have destroyed an engine test stand used for their ICBM development back on May 19th. I am not sure if this is the same test stand that President Trump is referring to. However, I doubt the Kim regime would just destroy this test stand without some prior discussions with the US about this. You can view satellite pictures of the test stand over at 38 North.
A fan of President Trump’s decision to stop joint wargames against North Korea is Guam Governor Eddie Calvo:
Guam Gov. Eddie Calvo meets with President Trump on Air Force One during a refueling stop at Andersen Air Force Base early on Wednesday morning local time.
Gov. Eddie Calvo met with President Donald Trump as the president made a pit stop at Andersen Air Force Base early Wednesday morning.
Trump was on his return trip from Singapore after a historic summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. (……)
“The war games are very expensive. We pay for a big majority of them. We fly in bombers from Guam,” Trump said after meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un.
“I said — when I first started, I said, ‘Where do the bombers come from?’ ‘Guam. Nearby.’ I said, ‘Oh, great, nearby. Where’s nearby?’ ‘Six and a half hours.’ Six and a half hours — that’s a long time for these big massive planes to be flying to South Korea to practice and then drop bombs all over the place, and then go back to Guam. I know a lot about airplanes; it’s very expensive. And I didn’t like it.”
Calvo said he supports Trump’s decision to halt bomber flights from Andersen. Calvo said the exercises were “threatening,” and put Guam in North Korea’s crosshairs. [Guam PDN]
You can read more at the link, but Governor Calvo as was reported to have told Trump that the people of Guam breathed a “big sigh of relief” after the summit since the island has been repeatedly threatened over the years by North Korea for missile attacks.
Solid comments by all interviewed authorities. I strongly recommend reading this discussion prior to the upcoming Singapore summit. https://t.co/O7F9P734KO
This photo, taken from the North’s Rodong Sinmun daily newspaper on June 13, 2018, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) shaking hands with U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, who is known for his hawkish views on the North, at the Capella Hotel on the Singaporean resort island of Sentosa. Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump held a summit there a day earlier. (Yonhap)
It has been a good week for President Moon Jae-in:
The ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has swept the local elections as well as by-elections for 12 empty National Assembly seats.
According to exit polls and the vote count by midnight Wednesday, the DPK clinched 14 out of 17 governor and mayoral posts. The largest conservative Liberty Korea Party (LKP) managed to win in the mayoral and governor elections in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province ― its traditional strongholds. Independent candidate Won Hee-ryong won the Jeju governor’s post.
The DPK overwhelmingly won in southeast regions including South Gyeongsang Province, Ulsan and Busan, exit polls showed. The party had never won elections in these regions before. The outcome means the liberal party successfully overcame deep-rooted hostilities in these areas, largely thanks to the high popularity of President Moon Jae-in. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I have always said that President Moon may be a leftist, but he is an extremely smart leftist. Does anyone think it was just a coincidence that the Trump-Kim summit was timed to happen right before the election? Also look at how Moon buried the damaging Druking scandal by naming a special prosecutor right before the Trump-Kim summit. This timing assured that the news would be buried by coverage of the summit.
Finally the Moon administration has been able to effectively take over control of most of the major media outlets in South Korea. Unless his North Korea policies end up imploding over the next year I expect that President Moon and thus the LKP will remain popular in South Korea.
President Trump is definitely working hard to sell the public on how successful the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore was in response to his critics:
U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that the world should feel “safer” because North Korea poses no nuclear threat to the world.
“Everybody can feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!” he wrote just after he returned to Washington from a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on Tuesday.
“Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer,” he added.
Earlier he tweeted several times defending the summit, which critics said lacked specifics and fell short of the U.S. goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.
“Great progress was made on the denuclearization of North Korea. Hostages are back home, will be getting the remains of our great heroes back to their families, no missiles shot, no research happening, sites closing,” Trump tweeted.
“Got along great with Kim Jong-un who wants to see wonderful things for his country. As I said earlier today: Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace!” he added.
In later postings, Trump thanked Kim for taking a “bold” step toward a “bright future” for his people and said that their Tuesday summit helps the world stay a big step away from potential nuclear catastrophe. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but you can read my analysis of the summit at this link. What will be interesting to see in the coming weeks what the domestic North Korean media puts out about this summit.
As usual Professor B.R. Myers has correctly predicted how the Korean left led by the Moon administration will push for a confederation with North Korea by touting the economic benefits:
A few months ago I predicted the ruling Minjoo Party would begin agitating for a league or confederation before the June 13 elections. I said that in doing so it would focus on the economic benefits.
Last week I received the various parties’ campaign materials in a big envelope. (As a permanent resident I am eligible to vote in local elections.) Sure enough, the Minjoo pamphlet has a slogan in big brushstroke font at the top of one page: “Peace Equals Economy!” Underneath, next to a photo of President Moon, is the somewhat coded but still urgent pledge to “construct a permanent peace system this year.”
Of course his base knows what this means. To quote an approving headline in the nationalist-left Hankyoreh on April 29:
The plan for unification via a North-South league is hidden in the Panmunjom Declaration.
Indeed it is, and in plain sight. But the Hankyoreh was quick to drop this talk, being mindful of the need to get the Americans to Singapore in as blissful a state of ignorance as possible. This is why street demonstrations for the “peace system” have so far been rather small and sedate affairs (though with a higher proportion of young participants than conservative rallies). [B.R. Myers]
I highly recommend reading the whole article at the link.
Besides constitutional reform, to make this confederation possible, President Moon and Kim Jong-un need President Trump to drop sanctions. This would allow the Moon administration to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast. They would prefer President Trump to do this without the Kim regime having to give up their nuclear weapons. Trump pushing the Kim regime to completely give up their nuclear weapons before sanctions are dropped makes Moon’s plans for a confederation much more difficult. This is why Moon has been so complementary to President Trump and thrown around accolades such as “Nobel Peace Prize” in effort to win him over to drop sanctions.
Eventually, as B.R. Myers writes, both the Moon administration and the Kim regime hope this confederation will lead to their ultimate goal of the withdrawal of USFK. As I have written about before, I don’t expect the Moon administration to directly call for this because it will mobilize the conservative ROK political opposition against him. Instead he will use the cost sharing negotiations and anti-US groups to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration decides on its own to withdraw USFK.
Once again I recommend reading B.R. Myers entire article at this link.
"Today is a great day," former NBA star Dennis Rodman says in an emotional interview in which he describes his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un https://t.co/eoNeZnYFm7pic.twitter.com/6gouUPBBpX
