Author: GIKorea

Members of a South Korean civic group stage a rally in front of the Capella Hotel in Singapore on June 12, 2018, demanding the repatriation of South Koreans kidnapped by North Korea as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un holds a summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the hotel. (Yonhap)

Forget all the talk about denuclearization on the Korean peninsula following the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore, the biggest news for me is President Trump announcing the stopping of joint military exercises:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will stop “provocative and expensive” war games with South Korea in a surprise reference to the joint military exercises Pyongyang has criticized as a rehearsal of invasion.

Trump made the remarks during a press conference that followed his historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the Singaporean resort island of Sentosa.

“War games are very expensive,” he said, raising the issue of their cost.

“I think it is very provocative … You have a country that is right next door,” he added, referring to the communist state.   [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but President Moon has previously said that UFG would be scaled down and now President Trump has used to word stopped.  I guess we will see what this all means, but for now it is pretty clear that the August UFG exercise will not happen the way it is normally executed.

If the joint exercises are stopped this is a big win for President Moon.  His left wing base does not support the exercises while the political opposition conservative party does.  So Moon’s base gets what it wants, for now and Moon can tell his political opposition that he was not the one that cancelled the joint exercises, President Trump did.

These joint exercise are important for USFK due to the high change over in personnel on the peninsula which these exercises help to keep personnel trained with their ROK military counterparts.  However, just like everything that North Korea has committed to cancelling joint exercises are easily reversible from the US perspective.  I don’t see President Trump committing to something non-reversible like troop withdrawals from the peninsula until the Kim regime does something non-reversible such as removing nuclear material to a third country for disposal.

It should continue to be an interesting year to see how this all plays out.

Below is the statement that President Trump and Kim Jong-un signed during their summit in Singapore with my comments below each point:

Here is the first part of the statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

There has been a lot of talk about the US opening an embassy in North Korea.  This line seems to open the door to this possibility if North Korea behaves of course.  An opening of an embassy would symbolize the normalizing of relations between the DPRK and the US which is why I don’t think this will be something happening in the near term.  Once the DPRK makes irreversible decisions to end their nuclear program than I think this will become a possibility.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join the efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

This is something that President Moon Jae-in and the Kim regime has been actively pushing for.  Professor B.R. Myers has written extensively on this, but Moon wants to eventually establish a North-South Confederation.  This is why him and the Korean left have been attempting to amend the ROK constitution to make this happen.  One of the changes they have proposed was changing this passage in the ROK constitution:

“The Republic of Korea shall seek national unification, and shall formulate and carry out a peaceful unification policy based on the free and democratic basic order.”

In the proposed revision the word “free” would be removed which would open the door to the Kim regime maintaining power in North Korea after confederation with their own form of democracy.  President Moon and his left wing supporters will never admit to this, but that is the only rational reason why they would want this change in the ROK constitution.

Should this matter to President Trump?  It seems that from the US perspective if the DPRK ends its nuclear and ICBM programs then it should be left up to the ROK to decide their own future.  If the ROK public wants a confederation that sees billions of their taxpayer dollars going up North to support the Kim regime that will continue to maintain a massive conventional military force to threaten them with, then so be it.  Remember the Kim regime is only going to agree to a confederation on their terms.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panumunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclerarization of the Korean Peninsula.

Notice that the wording of this statement is “work toward” which makes no demands of the Kim regime to actually denuclearize.  So far the North Koreans have only taken denuclearization actions that are easily reversible.  I think that in response the US will only make concessions that are easily reversible.  I don’t think the US will drop sanctions until concrete actions are taken by the Kim regime to eliminate their nuclear weapons such as shipping nuclear material to a third country.  The DPRK and the ROK have long wanted a “freeze deal” that would allow the North Koreans to keep their nukes in return for dropping sanctions.  I have so far seen no indication of an agreement of a “freeze deal” from this summit.    If the US drops sanctions against North Korea for little to nothing in return than this will be a huge win for Kim Jong-un.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

It will be interesting to see how this is executed because in the past the US stopped the recovery work because of the ridiculous fees that North Korea demanded.  The North Koreans know exactly where the bulk of the remains are because the US military buried a large number of casualties in marked cemeteries before evacuating North Korea after the Chinese intervened in the war.

To be able to repatriate these remains to their family members the North Koreans have been demanding inflated prices which just shows how low the Kim regime is willing to go to make money.  The work to recover the remains ended in 2005 with 220 remains recovered.

As recently as 2014 the Kim regime was trying to get the US to restart recovery of the remains threatening to let them get washed away.  It looks like the Kim regime has now convinced the Trump administration to restart the remains recovery, but at what cost?

Final Analysis

My analysis on this is that the Trump administration would love to have North Korea completely denuclearize and give up their ICBMs in exchange for dropping of sanctions and being reintegrated into the world community.  However, I am confident based on the people that President Trump has around him, that he is not naive to the past history of the Kim regime.

I think this is the one final chance for the Kim regime to make peace with the United States and if they try to play their old games again, that will be the excuse the President needs to take military action against them.  This kind of reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during the Clinton administration.  Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat was given the opportunity to make peace with the Israelis during the 2000 Camp David Summit and did not do it which led to the Second Intifada.  This gave the Israelis the excuse they needed to crush the Palestinians which they did.

Does anyone see any similarities between these two photographs? 

Kim Jong-un currently has the opportunity to seek peace with the United States just like Arafat did with the Israelis.  Arafat could not bring himself to make peace with the Israelis despite the great deal that was offered to him that gave the Palestinians nearly everything they wanted.  Arafat it was argued did not agree to the deal because it jeopardized his leadership status by being responsible for building a state along side Israel instead of a deadly, authoritarian opposition which is all he knew how to do.

Will Kim Jong-un accept denuclearization in return for building his state after the dropping of sanctions?  Time will tell, but like the Israelis I would not be surprised if President Trump isn’t ready to take military action if the North Koreans return to a provocation cycle again.  Just like with the Palestinians, I think things will end badly for the Kim regime if that is the course of action they choose to take.

Final Note: By the way did anyone else feel like Kim Jong-un looked like he was a contestant on the Celebrity Apprentice show during this summit?  If they would have let Dennis Rodman into the summit it truly would have a been a Celebrity Apprentice episode.

Japanese far more skeptical than Americans that North Korean nuclear issue can be resolved, new poll shows https://t.co/I29A3Pb8lH pic.twitter.com/djKea4lz3i

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) June 10, 2018

Students majoring in Korean studies at Rice University in Houston tour SK Innovation in the southeastern industrial city of Ulsan in this photo released by the company on June 8, 2018. (Yonhap)

A group of well-built bodyguards with short crew cuts accompanied North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore.

The men, whom South Korean media called “Dark shadows” during the inter-Korean summit in April, moved in a tight formation to keep their boss shielded on his first day in Singapore, Sunday.

There appeared little room for 12 bodyguards to surround Kim’s limousine as he headed to the Istana, the official residence of Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, shortly after he arrived in the city-state on June 10.  [Korea Times]

There was a horrible accident over the weekend outside of Yongsan Garrison’s Gate 13:

An American family headed to a high school graduation ceremony on Yongsan Garrison was struck by tragedy on Saturday when their car was involved in a fatal collision with a motorcycle.

The crash, which occurred outside Gate 13, killed two people — one American and the South Korean motorcycle driver — and injured another American, garrison spokesman Wes Hayes told Stars and Stripes.

Hayes declined to identify the casualties and said the cause of the crash remained under investigation.

“Our hearts and prayers go out to all the victims of this tragic accident today,” Hayes said.

Many members of the community gathered at a chapel on post after the graduation ceremony to console each other and grieve.

A person at the chapel said the fatality was an American girl who was with her family on the way to watch her brother graduate from Seoul American High School. Her father, a civilian, was reportedly in critical condition.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but hat tip to ROK Head Guitard for leaving the below link that shows the aftermath of this accident:

This next video shows the injured American father asking for help:

Condolences to all the family and friends effected by this tragic accident.

It seems too early in the negotiations to commit to any troop cuts within USFK, but if North Korea does take serious measures to eliminate their nuclear program I could see this happening at some point in the future.  I guess we will see what happens once the summit is complete:

Concerns are rising that U.S. President Donald Trump may use reducing the number of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea as a bargaining chip for a denuclearization deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Since taking office early last year, Trump has called for the need to scale down the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), as he believes Washington is not properly compensated for maintaining the troops here.

Trump has, for this reason, urged South Korea to take a bigger share in paying maintenance costs for the USFK during the ongoing negotiation to renew the five-year defense-cost-sharing for the American troops here. Under his “America First” policy, he said Seoul should take on more of the burden when renewing the agreement which expires at the end of this year.

“Less publicly, but still privately, Trump continues to say he does not agree with the argument that U.S. troops in South Korea are strategically necessary, and he thinks the U.S. gets nothing back from paying to keep them there,” Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin said in a recent column, citing administration officials and those who have had conversations with Trump regarding the issue.

“He (Trump) often asks his generals to explain the rationale for America’s deployments in Asia and expresses dissatisfaction with their answers.”

The White House and Pentagon denied the possibility for Trump to bring the agenda of downsizing U.S. troops to the dialogue table on Tuesday morning when the historic Washington-Pyongyang summit takes place in Singapore.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

This is a perfect example of how messed up North Korea’s priorities are.  The Kim regime can supposedly launch a nuclear missile that can threaten most of the world, but they can’t maintain one aircraft to fly to Singapore:

The Air China Boeing 747 that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un took to Singapore on Sunday (June 10) is the private jet of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Hong Kong’s Apple Daily reported Monday (June 11).

Kim’s usual mode of transport is his own aircraft, the Chammae-1, but he appears to have sought help from China due to safety concerns regarding the condition of his jet.  [AsiaOne]

You can read more at the link, but I would have to think this is quite embarrassing for Kim Jong-un to have to hitch a ride to possibly the most important summit he may ever attend.

However, he was all smiles when meeting with Singapore’s Prime Minister:

A South Korean tourist visiting Australia is very lucky to be alive:

A South Korean tourist was found safe and “in good spirits” six days after falling into a deep ravine while taking photos from a mountaintop in northeastern Australia, officials said.

Rescuers said the chances of survival for 25-year-old Han Joo-hee had been “near zero” after spending nearly a week without food in the remote area.

Han disappeaered on June 1 after telling friends she was going to climb Mount Tyson, a peak in bushland south of Cairns in northern Queensland state, police said.

She was not reported missing until Wednesday, when police, soldiers and emergency crews launched a search, finally locating her Thursday stuck in a deep ravine near a waterfall.

She was winched to safety by helicopter and taken to a local hospital suffering only minor injuries.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.