Via a reader tip comes this news that presidential advisor Moon Jung-in has been speculating recently that if President Moon Jae-in asks US forces to leave Korea, they should leave:
Moon Jung-in, special adviser to President Moon Jae-in, speaks during a recent seminar hosted by the National Committee on North Korea in Washington, D.C. / Yonhap
Moon Jung-in, mentor to President Moon Jae-in on foreign and North Korea affairs, often previews Seoul’s policy.
Now under question is his remark in a seminar in Washington, D.C., to the effect that U.S. forces should leave Korea, if its president shows the door. The comment was made in the context of explaining the structure under which the U.S. has wartime control of ROK forces.
The U.S. is said to be resistant to changing the structure, which would make the U.S. general subordinate to the Korean general.
Some experts say the U.S. would rather leave Korea than have its troops under ROK command. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I would be surprised if the Pentagon signs on to any plan that allows a ROK general to command US forces. ROK generals do not have the experience to command the hi-tech weapons, logistics, communications, and command & control systems that the US military brings to a fight.
This is why in the past it has been reported that if an OPCON change happens the US command will be downgraded to a three-star general in charge of an military organization called KORCOM. ROK generals would take back control of all their forces during wartime, but would have no command authority over KORCOM. Instead KORCOM would support the ROK military as needed.
If President Moon wants US forces out of Korea without explicitly demanding it; requesting that KORCOM fall under the command of ROK general would be the way to do it.
The latest rotational unit to come to Korea has a history that stretches back to the Korean War:
The 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division colors are uncased at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, Friday, Feb. 23, 2018. PAK CHIN U/U.S. ARMY PHOTO
The 3rd Infantry Division is back on the Korean Peninsula for the first time since the Korean War.
The 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team out of Fort Stewart, Ga., began a nine-month rotation Friday by unfurling its unit colors at Eighth Army’s new headquarters south of Seoul.
The “Raider Brigade” replaces soldiers from the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division out of Fort Hood, Texas.
“This is the first time soldiers wearing the 3ID patch have served [on the peninsula] since fighting in the Korean War,” Raider Brigade commander Col. Mike Adams said at the ceremony. [Stars & Stripes]
Here is an update from the Stars & Stripes on the ongoing Yongsan Garrison relocation:
Yongsan Garrison
The Army garrison has started to shrink, although it’s still hard to tell from outside. The relocation is not expected to be completed for at least two more years.
Yongsan’s population, including the nearby K-16 air base, has plunged from 22,000 in May to 13,500 following the historic move in July of the Eighth Army from its aging red brick headquarters to Camp Humphreys.
It’s expected to drop as low as 8,000 by Aug. 18 according to the current trajectory, garrison commander Col. Scott Peterson said as he laid out a timeline during a town-hall meeting earlier this month.
The food court and post exchange have reduced hours. Gone is the Popeyes near the schools, which had been a popular student hangout. The commissary reduced the number of registers from 17 to 10 after much-needed equipment was transferred to Humphreys. The library also is being cut in size and no longer operates a drop box.
U.S. Forces Korea made the first adjustment to the perimeter in December when it closed a main access point along with some living quarters and offices, sealing off a section of a northern corner known as Camp Coiner. This area will be the U.S. Embassy’s new home.
Camp Kim, which has a USO building that closed Feb. 21, the Special Operations Command Korea and an office for vehicle registration, is on track to close in July, Peterson said, stressing that was contingent on SOCKOR’S plans.
“What’s left of the garrison will stay like it is for the next six to 12 months with no major adjustments to the perimeter. Inside the base, however, there will be some additional reductions of stuff, the losses of a few conveniences,” Peterson told residents gathered in a base chapel.
The next major milestone will be in December 2019 when the on-post hospital is due to close, triggering the departure of the last major unit. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read much more at the link, but I can remember 20 years ago talk of relocating Yongsan Garrison so it is good to see after all these years it is finally happening.
USFK has some new capability forward deployed on the peninsula:
The U.S. is to deploy new attack drones in South Korea that could be used to kill North Korean leaders and launch pinpoint strikes on its missile launch pads.
Twelve Gray Eagle/MQ-1Cs will arrive at an air base in Gunsan, North Jeolla Province in March and April. Their deployment coincides with joint South Korea-U.S. drills that will be staged in early April right after the closing of the Winter Paralympics in Pyeongchang.
Construction of a hangar and other support facilities was completed late last month, and support personnel have already arrived. [Chosun Ilbo]
It looks like the ROK government has made their decision to continue on with the execution of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises after the conclusion of the Paralympics:
South Korea and the United States confirmed Tuesday that they will hold joint war games on the divided peninsula after the Olympics despite concerns the drills could jeopardize a fragile detente with North Korea.
The longtime allies had agreed to postpone the annual exercises until after the Winter Games in a bid to ease rising tensions with the nuclear-armed North, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.
U.S. military officials have always said the operations known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle would resume after the March 8-18 Paralympics. But some observers speculated that Seoul may ask for them to be further postponed or scaled down to maintain a spirit of reconciliation with Pyongyang.
Defense Minister Song Young-moo dismissed that idea on Tuesday, telling a parliamentary defense committee that the allies would announce the start date for the drills by the end of March, according to the Yonhap News Agency. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but what this means is that the ROK government is not ready to make concessions yet to the Kim regime in regards to the US-ROK alliance.
It also means that the North Koreans will use this exercise as an excuse to restart missile testing. What type of missile they test will be a sign of how serious they are about future talks. If they launch short range missiles into the Sea of Japan that will be seen as less provocative then firing missiles over Japan or testing ICBMs that could hit the United States.
Ryu Hee-in, a senior official of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, visits a security control center of the PyeongChang Olympics Organizing Committee in the northeastern alpine city of PyeongChang in this photo provided by the ministry on Jan. 17, 2018.
The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) is providing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and other assistance to help ensure security during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Sunday.
The USFK’s UAVs have been mobilized for surveillance activities around all stadiums to prevent possible terrorist attacks and accidents during the Olympics and the Paralympics. The Olympics run through next Sunday, while the Paralympics will take place from March 9-18.
“The USFK is offering UAV support in close cooperation with South Korean and U.S. military authorities, as well as the Olympic organizing committee, the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, and the U.S. Department of State,” the JCS said.
“This clearly shows that the solid South Korea-U.S. alliance is shining more at the scenes of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics,” it added.
The UAVs are producing live video feeds, which the Olympic security control center uses to protect Olympic venues from any potential dangers.
The type of UAVs remains unknown. But the USFK is known to operate small ones, such as the RQ-11B Raven and the RQ-7B Shadow. [Yonhap]
Here is an interesting read about Stephen Bradner the former advisor to 14 different USFK commanders. He retired from his position in 2013 and unfortunately passed away last month at age 86:
The late Stephen Bradner, with his wife Shin-ja. Photo: Courtesy Andrew Bradner
Bradner returned to the US in 1961 to earn a Harvard master’s degree in Asian Studies. He returned to Korea in 1964 to begin a career of nearly 50 years as a civilian employee of the US government. Starting as an intelligence analyst for the US Army, Bradner worked his way up until in 1973 he became deputy special advisor to the US Army 4-star general in command of both UN Command and US Forces in Korea.
As Michael Breen, author of “The New Koreans” later recalled, “When I first met Steve back around 1986, I showed his business card to a politician friend who was running [then-opposition leader] Kim Dae-jung’s camp. He got quite excited, and put on a whispered voice, although there was no need to, and said, ‘He is the most powerful man in Korea!’” [Asia Times]
The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension. The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula. I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:
Sue Mi Terry
South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.
The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.
Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.
“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.
“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.” [Yonhap]
Kim Jong-un may not have exactly told Koreans to surrender to his demands, but that is essentially what is being said in this statement:
North Korea sent a rare announcement addressed to “all Koreans at home and abroad” on Thursday, saying they should make a “breakthrough” for unification without the help of other countries, its state media said.
It said all Koreans should “promote contact, travel, cooperation between North and South Korea” while adding Pyongyang will “smash” all challenges against reunification of the Korean peninsula.
The announcement, issued after a joint meeting of government and political parties, added Koreans should wage an energetic drive to defuse the acute military tension and create a peaceful climate on the Korean peninsula.
Military tension on the Korean peninsula was a “fundamental obstacle” for the improvement of inter-Korean relations and unification, the North’s official news agency said.
It added joint military drills with “outside forces” has shown to be unhelpful for the development of relations between North and South Korea. [Reuters]
This message makes it pretty clear that the Kim regime wants the inter-Koreans ventures such as the Geumgang Resort tours and Kaesong Industrial Complex reopened as a means for foreign currency and to circumvent sanctions. That is why the Masik Ski Resort is being promoted so heavily as part of the Winter Olympics charm offensive by the North Koreans. They see that resort as another potential cash cow to circumvent sanctions.
This message also continues the Kim regime’s efforts to separate the ROK and the US by demanding joint military exercises be cancelled. I would not be surprised if the ROK government asks to cancel the already delayed Key Resolve exercise.
The Moon administration had previously said that they wanted to take over wartime operational control (OPCON) of military forces in the early 2020’s. Now the defense minister is saying they want to speed up the change over:
South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo, right, shakes hands with U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis.
Defense Minister Song Young-moo urged the military’s top brass on Tuesday to hasten preparations to take back Korea’s wartime operational control from the United States.
“The transfer is crucial to realize a reliable national defense suitable to Korea’s power and military capabilities,” Song said during a meeting at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “and to defend the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”
He also urged the military to create a combined defense system with the United States under Korean leadership. The meeting was attended by about 200 senior officers of the Ministry of National Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army, Navy and Air Force as well as key operational units of the military.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff said it has focused on preparing a command structure that will be used after the transfer and that it has worked to improve the military’s capabilities so it can lead combined operations with the United States, which is one of the agreed-upon prerequisites for the transfer, in addition to a stable environment and an ability by Korea to counter North Korean nuclear and missile threats. To verify that these prerequisites have been met, one preliminary evaluation and three assessments are required, but the Ministry of National Defense presented a plan last week to speed up the transfer by skipping the preliminary evaluation, which is scheduled for 2019, and beginning immediately with the first assessment that same year.
Reporting to Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon on Friday, the ministry said it will update its plan and discuss it with the United States at the Security Consultative Meeting in October.
Song’s request echoes the sentiment of President Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for an early transfer since taking office in May. In his summit in July with U.S. President Donald Trump, Moon made an agreement with Trump to continue working to “expeditiously enable the conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
One of ROK President Moon’s top priorities after taking office was to push for the early transfer of OPCON to ROK forces. The US government has pretty much told him that if he wants it he can have it, but the US side of the command will be downgraded to a three-star general.