Tag: USFK

The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension.  The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula.  I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:

South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.

“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.

“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Kim Jong-un may not have exactly told Koreans to surrender to his demands, but that is essentially what is being said in this statement:

North Korea sent a rare announcement addressed to “all Koreans at home and abroad” on Thursday, saying they should make a “breakthrough” for unification without the help of other countries, its state media said.

It said all Koreans should “promote contact, travel, cooperation between North and South Korea” while adding Pyongyang will “smash” all challenges against reunification of the Korean peninsula.

The announcement, issued after a joint meeting of government and political parties, added Koreans should wage an energetic drive to defuse the acute military tension and create a peaceful climate on the Korean peninsula.

Military tension on the Korean peninsula was a “fundamental obstacle” for the improvement of inter-Korean relations and unification, the North’s official news agency said.

It added joint military drills with “outside forces” has shown to be unhelpful for the development of relations between North and South Korea.  [Reuters]

This message makes it pretty clear that the Kim regime wants the inter-Koreans ventures such as the Geumgang Resort tours and Kaesong Industrial Complex reopened as a means for foreign currency and to circumvent sanctions.  That is why the Masik Ski Resort is being promoted so heavily as part of the Winter Olympics charm offensive by the North Koreans.  They see that resort as another potential cash cow to circumvent sanctions.

This message also continues the Kim regime’s efforts to separate the ROK and the US by demanding joint military exercises be cancelled.  I would not be surprised if the ROK government asks to cancel the already delayed Key Resolve exercise.

The Moon administration had previously said that they wanted to take over wartime operational control (OPCON) of military forces in the early 2020’s.  Now the defense minister is saying they want to speed up the change over:

Defense Minister Song Young-moo urged the military’s top brass on Tuesday to hasten preparations to take back Korea’s wartime operational control from the United States.

“The transfer is crucial to realize a reliable national defense suitable to Korea’s power and military capabilities,” Song said during a meeting at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “and to defend the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

He also urged the military to create a combined defense system with the United States under Korean leadership. The meeting was attended by about 200 senior officers of the Ministry of National Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army, Navy and Air Force as well as key operational units of the military.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff said it has focused on preparing a command structure that will be used after the transfer and that it has worked to improve the military’s capabilities so it can lead combined operations with the United States, which is one of the agreed-upon prerequisites for the transfer, in addition to a stable environment and an ability by Korea to counter North Korean nuclear and missile threats. To verify that these prerequisites have been met, one preliminary evaluation and three assessments are required, but the Ministry of National Defense presented a plan last week to speed up the transfer by skipping the preliminary evaluation, which is scheduled for 2019, and beginning immediately with the first assessment that same year.

Reporting to Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon on Friday, the ministry said it will update its plan and discuss it with the United States at the Security Consultative Meeting in October.

Song’s request echoes the sentiment of President Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for an early transfer since taking office in May. In his summit in July with U.S. President Donald Trump, Moon made an agreement with Trump to continue working to “expeditiously enable the conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

One of ROK President Moon’s top priorities after taking office was to push for the early transfer of OPCON to ROK forces.  The US government has pretty much told him that if he wants it he can have it, but the US side of the command will be downgraded to a three-star general.

This is not good that someone was able to breach security at Camp Humphreys not once, but three times:

The top U.S. commander in South Korea criticized the response to a breach of a gate at Camp Humphreys after a South Korean man managed to gain unauthorized entry to the base three times.

The man drove through the main gate at the sprawling base south of Seoul at 4:20 a.m. Saturday but was detained by military police about 10 minutes later and handed over to South Korean officers.

Public affairs officials initially didn’t mention that it had happened before. However, U.S. Forces Korea put out a statement Tuesday saying the man had breached security for the third time in a matter of days but “was successfully interdicted each time by Camp Humphreys authorities without incident or injury.”

Gen. Vincent Brooks expressed concern about how the intrusions had been handled and called for vigilance about force protection on U.S. installations peninsula-wide.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but the man who breached security supposedly has mental problems.

Here is the latest complaints from residents who live outside of Rodriguez Range that the 8th Army commander had to apologize for:

A top U.S. commander has apologized to a South Korean mayor for stray ammunition rounds found outside a sprawling training complex near the tense frontier that divides the peninsula.

Lt. Gen. Michael Bills, the Eighth Army’s new commander, made the comments Thursday during an office call with the mayor of Pocheon, the area that is home to Rodriguez Live Fire Range.

“During the meeting he apologized for the Jan. 3 incident that resulted in several ammunition rounds being found in a [South Korean army] motorpool” near the U.S. complex, the Eighth Army public affairs office told Stars and Stripes Friday in an email.

“He reinforced that the safety of the citizens of our host nation is a top priority,” it added.

More than 10 .50-caliber rounds were discovered at the South Korean base, weeks after the U.S. command hosted a town-hall meeting in Pocheon to address public outrage after a bullet from the range was found inside a local home in November.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but from the article it is unclear if these were just stray rounds accidentally left on the ROK base or actual fired rounds.  If these were just stray rounds accidentally left in the ROK base I don’t see what the residents are complaining about since it is not a danger to them?

Here is the least surprising news of the week:

North Korea’s propaganda outlet called for the total suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States on Friday, in response to the allies’ decision to delay them until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

The North’s website Uriminzokkiri said that dialogue and a “war rehearsal” cannot go together, calling the exercises the source of catastrophe for the Korean Peninsula.

“They should totally stop the military drills, not just delay them,” it said in a commentary.  [Korea Herald]

You can read more at the link, but this all goes back to North Korea’s strategy of separating the ROK from the US.  Ending the ROK-US military drills using nuclear coercion is one of the ways they are trying to do this.

After the completion of the Olympics, if the delayed Key Resolve exercise is not cancelled, the Kim regime can then use it as an excuse to start another provocation cycle.  That is why I fully expect there will be another launch in the spring timeframe.  What else that won’t be surprising is that all the usual suspects in the western media will be out blaming President Trump for the return of the provocation cycle.

Adm. Um Hyun-seong (R), South Korea’s chief of naval operations, poses for a photo with Rear Adm. Brad Cooper, the outgoing commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Korea, after giving Cooper a medal at a ceremony in Seoul on Jan. 9, 2018, in this photo released by the Navy. Cooper was given the Cheonsu Medal, the third-highest honor in the five-tier Order of National Security Merit, in recognition of his contribution to the alliance between the two countries. (Yonhap)

Lt. Gen. Michael Bills (L), the new commander of the U.S. Eighth Army, receives the Eighth Army flag from his predecessor Lt. Gen. Thomas Vandal during a ceremony at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, on Jan. 5, 2018, to mark his inauguration and his predecessor’s departure. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

It looks like the upcoming Key Resolve exercise will be delayed if North Korea does not cause any more provocations:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed Thursday to delay their countries’ regular joint military exercises during the Winter Olympic Games to be held here next month.

The agreement came in a telephone conversation between the two leaders, according to the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.

The tentative agreement came at a request from the South Korean leader.

“I believe it would greatly help ensure the success of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games if you could express an intention to delay joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises during the Olympics in case the North does not make any more provocations,” Moon was quoted as telling Trump.

The U.S. president agreed, saying Moon may tell North Korea that there will be no military exercises during the Olympics, according to Cheong Wa Dae.

In a press release, the White House confirmed the leaders agreed to “de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Olympics are in February and the Key Resolve exercise is typically executed in March so it was not like both events were overlapping.  However, preparations and personnel movements do happen in February and a shift of Key Resolve will provide the ROK military more time to focus on Olympic security before executing the exercise.

I guess the big question becomes what happens if North Korea commits a provocation like a missile test? Does Key Resolve get executed at the original time?  I would not be surprised if North Korea does a more ambiguous provocation like a space launch just to create tension in the US-ROK alliance over what to do in response.

Only in Korea does the holiday season mean that once again we get to see the annual pictures of half naked Marines frolicking in the snow:

About 400 U.S. and South Korean Marines took a break from honing their winter-warfare skills Tuesday for some friendly competition in the city that will host the upcoming Winter Olympics.

After doffing their shirts and yelling half-naked in the snow, the allies teamed up to battle each other in chicken fights, relay races and a free-for-all wrestling match.

It was a bit of levity to wrap up a tense year on the Korean Peninsula that saw more than 20 North Korean ballistic-missile tests, two underground nuclear blasts and an ongoing bitter war of words between Washington and Pyongyang.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.