Tag: US-ROK Alliance

It looks like the ROK government has made their decision to continue on with the execution of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises after the conclusion of the Paralympics:

South Korea and the United States confirmed Tuesday that they will hold joint war games on the divided peninsula after the Olympics despite concerns the drills could jeopardize a fragile detente with North Korea.

The longtime allies had agreed to postpone the annual exercises until after the Winter Games in a bid to ease rising tensions with the nuclear-armed North, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.

U.S. military officials have always said the operations known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle would resume after the March 8-18 Paralympics. But some observers speculated that Seoul may ask for them to be further postponed or scaled down to maintain a spirit of reconciliation with Pyongyang.

Defense Minister Song Young-moo dismissed that idea on Tuesday, telling a parliamentary defense committee that the allies would announce the start date for the drills by the end of March, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but what this means is that the ROK government is not ready to make concessions yet to the Kim regime in regards to the US-ROK alliance.

It also means that the North Koreans will use this exercise as an excuse to restart missile testing.  What type of missile they test will be a sign of how serious they are about future talks.  If they launch short range missiles into the Sea of Japan that will be seen as less provocative then firing missiles over Japan or testing ICBMs that could hit the United States.

The upcoming decision to me is pretty clear, what does the Moon administration value more, continued appeasement of the Kim regime or maintaining the readiness of US and ROK military forces?:

President Moon Jae-in is facing a growing dilemma over South Korea’s planned military exercises with the United States, with North Korea offering a rare gesture for warmer inter-Korean relations.

On Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in a meeting with its highest-ranking delegation which returned to Pyongyang Sunday after ending their three-day trip to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, ordered the regime to elevate the ongoing peaceful bilateral relationship with the South,.

The uncommon sign for reconciliation is raising the likelihood for a possible inter-Korean summit this year.

This is in line with President Moon’s North Korean policy under which he has underlined the need for holding enough dialogue to stop Pyongyang’s provocative military threats.

However, the South Korean government is likely to face a bumpy road ahead on the matter, as Seoul and Washington plan to resume their annual joint military exercise sometime in April. They delayed the drills – which normally take place around late February to early March – until after the Winter Olympics.

The South Korea-U.S. drills have for years drawn a strong backlash from North Korea. The Pentagon has in recent weeks reaffirmed its willingness to stage the drills right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but either way Kim Jong-un has set him self up to win because if the joint exercise is cancelled he advances his agenda of separating the US from the ROK.  If the joint exercise is executed he then uses that as an excuse to continue missile and maybe even nuclear testing.

Regardless of the decision I would expect that Pyongyang will still push for the inter-Korea summit with the South just likely on different timetables.  The Kim regime needs the inter-Korean summit in order to get their payday of reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism ventures in North Korea.  These ventures will help them skirt international sanctions to maintain revenue flowing into the regime.

Here is yet another example of how the North Koreans are continuing to try and separate the ROK and the US:

North Korea strongly condemned the South Korea-U.S. alliance Saturday, accusing their joint defense efforts of being aimed at toppling its communist regime and saying such efforts may also lead to an end of ongoing dialogue between the two Koreas.

“The South Korean government must realize its foul military consultation with the U.S. may be a foolish act that will put out the hard-earned chance of improving the North-South relationship and ruin its own fate,” Rodong Sinmun, a daily newspaper published by the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, said in a signed commentary.

The commentary was largely aimed at criticizing the two-plus-two Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group talks held last week between Seoul and Washington, in which the allies agreed to continue maintaining U.S. defense assets around the Korean Peninsula.

However, it also came one day after the allies confirmed a resumption of their delayed joint military drills in South Korea immediately following the 2018 Winter Olympic Games to be held in South Korea’s PyeongChang from Feb. 9-25.

“The exact date and size of the planned joint exercises cannot be disclosed, but they will be carried out after the close of the Olympics,” Seoul’s defense ministry said Friday.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but what this all means that after the Winter Olympics expect more provocations which the Kim regime will use US-ROK military exercises as an excuse to execute.

Here is the least surprising news of the week:

North Korea’s propaganda outlet called for the total suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States on Friday, in response to the allies’ decision to delay them until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

The North’s website Uriminzokkiri said that dialogue and a “war rehearsal” cannot go together, calling the exercises the source of catastrophe for the Korean Peninsula.

“They should totally stop the military drills, not just delay them,” it said in a commentary.  [Korea Herald]

You can read more at the link, but this all goes back to North Korea’s strategy of separating the ROK from the US.  Ending the ROK-US military drills using nuclear coercion is one of the ways they are trying to do this.

After the completion of the Olympics, if the delayed Key Resolve exercise is not cancelled, the Kim regime can then use it as an excuse to start another provocation cycle.  That is why I fully expect there will be another launch in the spring timeframe.  What else that won’t be surprising is that all the usual suspects in the western media will be out blaming President Trump for the return of the provocation cycle.

It looks like the upcoming Key Resolve exercise will be delayed if North Korea does not cause any more provocations:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed Thursday to delay their countries’ regular joint military exercises during the Winter Olympic Games to be held here next month.

The agreement came in a telephone conversation between the two leaders, according to the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.

The tentative agreement came at a request from the South Korean leader.

“I believe it would greatly help ensure the success of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games if you could express an intention to delay joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises during the Olympics in case the North does not make any more provocations,” Moon was quoted as telling Trump.

The U.S. president agreed, saying Moon may tell North Korea that there will be no military exercises during the Olympics, according to Cheong Wa Dae.

In a press release, the White House confirmed the leaders agreed to “de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Olympics are in February and the Key Resolve exercise is typically executed in March so it was not like both events were overlapping.  However, preparations and personnel movements do happen in February and a shift of Key Resolve will provide the ROK military more time to focus on Olympic security before executing the exercise.

I guess the big question becomes what happens if North Korea commits a provocation like a missile test? Does Key Resolve get executed at the original time?  I would not be surprised if North Korea does a more ambiguous provocation like a space launch just to create tension in the US-ROK alliance over what to do in response.

I do find it interesting that no one ever seems to protest ROK military training areas:

The contentious Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon, Gyeonggi, a tactical training area for the American army near the border with North Korea, was brought up in a recent high-level military conference between Seoul and Washington as nearby residents have complained of noise and safety concerns.

U.S. military officers worry that the complex, a 3,390-acre training zone managed by the 8th U.S. Army, could become the next “hot potato” after the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile shield in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang, a senior South Korean government official told JoongAng Ilbo Sunday on the condition of anonymity.

The field, which is the U.S. military’s largest shooting complex in Asia, was among the main agenda items discussed at the annual Military Committee Meeting between Jeong Kyeong-doo, chairman of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his U.S. counterpart, Joseph Dunford, last Friday.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read the rest at the link, but Rodriguez Range could close tomorrow and the THAAD battery could redeploy back to the United States and the leftists will still find “hot potato” issues to bash USFK with.  Remember these are the same people who created a hot potato issue by claiming a USFK mortician polluted the Han River and exposed everyone in Seoul to cancer.  They even convinced most people in Korea that eating US-beef would kill them.

The bottom line is that the Korean left will never be happy until USFK is gone.  That is there ultimate goal with sensationalizing every “hot potato” issue.

Like I have said before I will believe it when I see the OPCON transfer happen:

The Moon Jae-in administration’s ambition to regain wartime operational control from the United States has hit a snag, as the latest security consultation by U.S. and Korean defense chiefs failed to approve a restructuring plan for the combined forces.

Defense Minister Song Young-moo and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis attended an annual Security Consultative Meeting on Saturday in Seoul, accompanied by top military officials. North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and other key issues concerning the Korea-U.S. alliance, were discussed.

Following the discussion, the 49th of its kind, a joint communique was issued. Song and Mattis also addressed reporters in a press conference.

According to the joint communique, Song and Mattis pledged to work together to implement an agreement made in June by Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump to “enable the expeditious conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control.”

But conspicuously missing from the communique was the much-anticipated approval of a plan for a new Combined Forces Command to oversee Korean and U.S. troops on the peninsula after the transfer. Song and Mattis were updated on the draft organization of the future Combined Forced Command and decided to continue to refine the draft through combined exercises and certifications, it said.

Earlier this month, the Ministry of National Defense told the National Assembly that the structure of a future combined forces would be discussed and approved at the Song-Mattis meeting. According to the draft, a Korean general would act as chief commander of the combined troops and an American general was to serve as deputy commander.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but the talk of an OPCON transfer has been going on for many years due to Korean governmental delay games.  You can read more about the OPCON transfer at the below link:

https://www.rokdrop.net/2017/10/early-transfer-of-opcon-of-military-forces-to-korea-will-not-happen-until-early-2020s/

Some strong language from the US and ROK Defense Chiefs:

The defense chiefs of South Korea and the United States made clear Saturday that North Korea’s provocations will never be tolerated, as the two warned any act of aggression will be met with a “massive military response.”

They also stressed it’s pipe dream for North Korea to be recognized as a nuclear power.

The allies “reaffirmed that any North Korean aggression or military provocation will not be tolerated,” read the joint communique issued after their annual defense ministerial talks.

The two sides will continue combined efforts to “make North Korea understand that it cannot achieve the ends it seeks through its provocative behavior,” it added.

South Korea’s Defense Minister Song Young-moo told reporters that he and U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis condemned the North’s reckless provocations, including a series of recent ballistic missile launches and a nuclear test.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I guess the question now becomes what is an “act of aggression”?  Does ballistic missile and nuclear tests count as an act of aggression worth a massive military response?

It will be interesting to see what the North Koreans have to say about this visit and messaging by US Secretary Defense James Mattis:

South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo said Monday he and U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis plan to use military uniforms for a joint warning message to North Korea this week, when they meet in South Korea for bilateral annual talks.

Song proposed that Mattis wear a Marine Corps combat uniform, instead of a suit, in meeting with the allies’ troops on the peninsula together. The Pentagon chief is a retired Marine Corps general.

Song, a former Navy admiral and chief of staff, will be dressed in a Navy combat uniform as well.

“I offered that to Secretary of Defense Mattis and he responded positively without hesitation,” the minister told reporters during a visit to Clark, the Philippines, for a regional security forum hosted by Southeast Asian countries.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest SOFA complaint:

The sound of multiple gunshots from a supply depot of the U.S. Forces Korea resounded through part of the southeastern city of Busan every evening for three days from June 20 to 22.

Residents, petrified by the unexpected noise, made frantic calls to the police to figure out what was going on, but to no avail as the police had no idea either.

Only later did the police figure out the USFK had been firing blanks with automatic firearms during a defense drill.

At the same time, residents near a forest in Dangjin, South Chungcheong Province, had to endure the sounds of flyovers, takeoffs and landings of army helicopters for a while.

The drill, later reported to be by the USFK, continued two to three times a week for over a year from early 2016.

Faced with complaints from nearby residents, the defense ministry checked with the USFK which said it had reached a verbal agreement on helicopter drills with the local government.

South Chungcheong provincial government and Dangjin municipal government, however, denied making any such agreement.

With concerns over unannounced drills growing among citizens, Rep. Kim Jong-dae of the minor opposition Justice Party called for a revision of the rules on USFK operations.

The Korea-U.S. joint committee on the State of Forces Agreement (SOFA) came up with preventive measures to secure the safety of citizens regarding USFK operations in 2003.

The move followed the Yangju Highway Incident in which two schoolgirls were crushed to death by an American tracked vehicle in 2002.

According to the 2003 agreement, the USFK has to report its drills beforehand to the South Korean army and local governments.

However, the regulation is applied only limitedly in northern Gyeonggi Province, excluding other regions in the country from getting prior notification.

“If it had been applied to the entire country from the beginning, all parties — the defense ministry, local governments, police, and local people — would have not had to suffer,” Kim said.  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but it will interesting to see what the USFK response is because there must be a reason why the whole country was not included in the revision in 2003 and the ROK government agreed to it.

Further Reading:

https://www.rokdrop.net/2008/02/gi-myths-the-unfair-us-rok-sofa-agreement/