Tag: US-ROK Alliance

So does anyone really think a ROK general is really going to command US forces during a conflict?:

Seoul and Washington signed a strategic guideline on Wednesday that paves the way for a Korean-led combined defense mechanism after the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) from the United States.

South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis convened the 50th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Pentagon and signed the Alliance Guiding Principles to ensure a strong combined defense posture following the transfer.

The mutual guideline guarantees the continued stationing of U.S. troops in Korea and the retaining of the Combined Forces Command (CFC) and the United Nations Command after the transfer of Opcon from Washington to Seoul. It places a four-star Korean general as the head of the future CFC, with a U.S. general serving as deputy commander.

Washington further committed to a continued extension to Korea of its nuclear, conventional and missile defense deterrence capacities even after the transfer. This should quell some concerns in Seoul that the transfer of Opcon could lead to the withdrawal of some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea or the pulling back of American extended deterrence over the peninsula.

The two sides will work toward an initial operational capability (IOC) certification of a Korea-led combined defense posture next year. However, the specific timing of the Opcon transition will be determined later.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but this to me seems to be more of creating the impression to the Washington establishment that the Moon administration wants US forces to stay in Korea while using their surrogates to make life difficult for them.  Look no further then the current THAAD site in South Korea.

President Moon is pretty repeating the North Korean, Russian, and  positions on the Korean peninsula:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said a “new order” was in the making on the Korean Peninsula, with a rapidly changing diplomatic dynamic surrounding North Korea.

Remarking on an expected visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Russia and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible reciprocal visit to Pyongyang in coming weeks, Moon said a new order was being “established on the Korean Peninsula,” which he said would pave the way for setting up a new order in Northeast Asia during a cabinet meeting at the Blue House.

“Aside from the second North-U.S. summit,” he said, “North Korean leader Kim is expected to visit Russia while Xi Jinping of China is expected to make a visit to the North. A North-Japan summit is also an open possibility.

“In other words, a new order on the Korean Peninsula is being established.”

Moon went on to say that what he described as a “new order” was a must for the two Koreas to set in place a permanent peace regime and achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but the “new order” Moon is likely talking about is the confederation between North and South Korea on the Kim regime’s terms.  Also notice how he says the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”.  This is the same terms the North Koreans have been using.  South Korea does not have nuclear weapons so the term can only mean ending the US nuclear umbrella protection of South Korea and thus the end of the US-ROK alliance.

It seems it is becoming clearer and clearer that this is the ultimate end game for the Moon administration.

The anti-US groups already demand US troop withdrawal, despite majority #SouthKoreans supporting the US presence. The protests would become feverish a la candlelights if the "end of war" is declared, & Moon will say the "candlelights" ordered him for the US military withdrawal. https://t.co/CFZ7Xg9uMI

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) September 27, 2018

The Moon administration’s Defense Minister nominee is advocating for an end to the Korean War:

Defense Minister nominee Jeong Kyeong-doo said in his confirmation hearing, Monday, that the military has bolstered defense readiness ahead of the upcoming inter-Korean summit.

He also said that formally ending the Korean War should be pushed forward according to the Panmunjeom Declaration.

Jeong, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a treaty to end the war will be “a political proclamation” to pave the way for denuclearization, but this does not mean disbandment of the United Nations Command or the breakup of the South-U.S. defense alliance.

When asked about the North’s aim of seeking the end of the war for this summit, Jeong said “it was aimed at building trust between the two Koreas and North Korea and the U.S. in order to achieve the perfect denuclearization.”  [Korea Times]

General Jeong is remaining on script with the rest of the Moon administration about the future of the US-ROK alliance after any end of the Korean War.  The North Koreans, Chinese, Russians, and South Korean leftists all want US troops off of the peninsula.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

This article sent to me via a reader tip is a couple of months old, but it is yet another example of what the Moon administration really want to do with the US-ROK alliance even though officially they will say something different:

A top adviser to South Korea’s president says he would eventually like to see the U.S.–South Korea alliance end. In language that sounded almost Trump-like, Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security, said in an interview that alliances in general are a “very unnatural state of international relations” and said that, “for me, the best thing is to really get rid of alliance.” In the meantime, he says, he “strongly” supports “the continued presence of American forces” in Korea, despite hoping for an arrangement that he thinks would better serve his nation’s interests.

It was a remarkable statement coming from a South Korean official who is playing a prominent advisory role in current negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. South Korea has relied on its U.S. alliance since the 1950s to deter threats from its north—and the fate of that partnership, which North Korea has long sought to end, has been a contentious question as a summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump approaches. U.S. and South Korean officials have repeatedly insisted that the alliance is not a bargaining chip with North Korea. And Moon, who presented his ideas as his personal views, was discussing the future of the alliance as a theoretical question about Asia’s security architecture, not as a matter to be determined in nuclear talks. But his comments nevertheless suggested that if those talks succeed and overhaul geopolitics on the Korean peninsula, the alliance could come due for a reckoning.  [The Atlantic]

You can read much more at the link, but President Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.

However, if a peace treaty is signed to end the Korean War do not be surprised if the Moon administration allows left wing groups begin to put pressure on the US to withdraw.  Think of it as a macro version of the current THAAD issue.  The left wing groups have protested and sealed off the THAAD site making life difficult for the soldiers there.  The Korean government could easily end the blockade, but choose not to.  What if in the future if these groups are allowed to blockade and make life difficult for US personnel at for example Camp Humphreys?

President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence.

The issue of signing a peace treaty to end the Korean War is one of the major objectives of North Korea and China to ultimately get USFK withdrawn from South Korea:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said he wants to bring a formal end to the Korean War this year.

“The goal of our government is to declare an official end of the Korean War this year, which marks the 65th anniversary of signing the truce agreement,” he said in an interview with Singaporean media The Straits Times, according to Yonhap. Moon is on a three-day state visit in Singapore.

After the three-year war, China, North Korea and the U.N. agreed to an armistice in 1953.

“It will provide a milestone to the process for permanent peace along with denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a peace treaty between the North and South,” said Moon.

He added that his country is discussing with the U.S. and North Korea about when and how the declaration for the end of the Korean War will be announced.  [UPI]

Here is what Moon had to say about the future of USFK:

Moon noted that the U.S. military presence in South Korea is irrelevant to the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

“South Korea and the U.S. hold a firm position on the roles and importance of U.S. Forces in Korea for sustaining peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region and the Korean peninsula,” he said.

Remember that I have long believed that President Moon cannot publicly advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the US could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

It also gives North Korea and China what they ultimately want as well, but will the North Koreans agree to denuclearization if USFK was to withdraw?  I guess we will see what happens over the next year.

The way I look at it, as long as the ROK government continues to allow the protesters to block the road and artificially make sustainment costs for THAAD more expensive they should pay for it:

South Korea’s defense ministry said Friday that the cost of operating a U.S. missile defense system installed in the South may be covered using part of Seoul’s new share of upkeep costs for U.S. forces stationed here.

The U.S. could demand South Korea shoulder some costs needed to run and keep the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system as the allies are in discussion to renew their five-year deal on defense cost-sharing.

“If the U.S. side hopes to use Seoul’s share of the U.S. forces upkeep costs to cover THAAD’s operation, it may be possible to use it within the total amount of the South’s share in accordance with sectoral needs and regulations,” the ministry said in a statement.

It could potentially spark a row as it marks a sharp difference from the government’s stance that South Korea will not bear any of the costs associated with THAAD.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest on the US-ROK cost sharing talks:

The United States has demanded South Korea share the cost of deploying U.S. strategic assets around the Korean Peninsula during recent talks to renew their cost-sharing agreement for American troops stationed here, a foreign ministry official said Friday.

Seoul rejected the request saying the issue should not be part of the negotiation.

“Our basic stance on this matter is that the agreement deals with how to share the upkeep cost of stationing the U.S. troops,” the official told a group of reporters on condition of anonymity.

The two sides held their second round of the talks on the southern island of Jeju earlier this week. The first round was held in Hawaii last month.

The official said that there are “big differences” to be ironed out in the amount of money proposed by each side, which he said requires more discussion going forward. He didn’t provide specific numbers.

With regard to another potential issue of how to share the cost of operating the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system that was installed here last year, he said it was not mentioned in the meeting.

He noted, however, that the matter could be discussed as the cost of the THAAD operation could be dealt with in line with the “logistical support” part stipulated in the agreement.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

I would not put too much stock in this statement which I think could be interpreted as rhetoric for the friendly audience and part of a negotiating strategy for US-ROK cost sharing and trade talks.  With that said the ROK would probably be wise to not totally dismiss his comments:

President Donald Trump hinted he may withdraw American troops from South Korea if the U.S. ally doesn’t concede more in trade negotiations, a newspaper reported.

The Washington Post quoted Trump as saying Wednesday in a fundraising speech that the United States was losing money on trade with South Korea as well as the military presence that is meant as protection against aggression from the North.

“We have a very big trade deficit with them, and we protect them,” Trump said Wednesday in audio obtained by the Post. “We lose money on trade, and we lose money on the military. We have right now 32,000 soldiers between North and South Korea. Let’s see what happens.”

“Our allies care about themselves,” he said in the 30-minute speech to donors in Missouri. “They don’t care about us.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the Trump administration is remaining committed to keeping their promise of making the ROK government pay more for the upkeep of USFK:

The negotiations to renew South Korea and the United States’ deal on defense cost sharing are likely to be a “difficult” path, the top South Korean negotiator said Monday following the inaugural round of talks last week.

The allies kicked off the first round of the talks in Honolulu, Hawaii, last Wednesday to renew their five-year Special Measures Agreement governing Seoul’s share of the upkeep of the 28,500 American forces stationed in South Korea for defense against the North.

In the three-day “exploratory” talks last week, the two sides discussed at the “rudimentary level” the contributions each has made to the development of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the positions they have over the next defense cost sharing deal, a senior government official said in a background briefing.

“Both sides shared the understanding that the current negotiations should be led in a way that intensifies the combined defense posture and further develops the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” the official said.

He noted they are likely to be “difficult negotiations,” adding that the allies may take several rounds of talks to reach a new agreement. His comments hint that the allies had wide differences as they entered into the negotiations, especially after President Donald Trump’s repeated call to raise South Korea’s share of the defense financing.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.