Tag: US-ROK Alliance

The Moon administration’s Defense Minister nominee is advocating for an end to the Korean War:

Defense Minister nominee Jeong Kyeong-doo said in his confirmation hearing, Monday, that the military has bolstered defense readiness ahead of the upcoming inter-Korean summit.

He also said that formally ending the Korean War should be pushed forward according to the Panmunjeom Declaration.

Jeong, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a treaty to end the war will be “a political proclamation” to pave the way for denuclearization, but this does not mean disbandment of the United Nations Command or the breakup of the South-U.S. defense alliance.

When asked about the North’s aim of seeking the end of the war for this summit, Jeong said “it was aimed at building trust between the two Koreas and North Korea and the U.S. in order to achieve the perfect denuclearization.”  [Korea Times]

General Jeong is remaining on script with the rest of the Moon administration about the future of the US-ROK alliance after any end of the Korean War.  The North Koreans, Chinese, Russians, and South Korean leftists all want US troops off of the peninsula.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

This article sent to me via a reader tip is a couple of months old, but it is yet another example of what the Moon administration really want to do with the US-ROK alliance even though officially they will say something different:

A top adviser to South Korea’s president says he would eventually like to see the U.S.–South Korea alliance end. In language that sounded almost Trump-like, Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security, said in an interview that alliances in general are a “very unnatural state of international relations” and said that, “for me, the best thing is to really get rid of alliance.” In the meantime, he says, he “strongly” supports “the continued presence of American forces” in Korea, despite hoping for an arrangement that he thinks would better serve his nation’s interests.

It was a remarkable statement coming from a South Korean official who is playing a prominent advisory role in current negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. South Korea has relied on its U.S. alliance since the 1950s to deter threats from its north—and the fate of that partnership, which North Korea has long sought to end, has been a contentious question as a summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump approaches. U.S. and South Korean officials have repeatedly insisted that the alliance is not a bargaining chip with North Korea. And Moon, who presented his ideas as his personal views, was discussing the future of the alliance as a theoretical question about Asia’s security architecture, not as a matter to be determined in nuclear talks. But his comments nevertheless suggested that if those talks succeed and overhaul geopolitics on the Korean peninsula, the alliance could come due for a reckoning.  [The Atlantic]

You can read much more at the link, but President Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.

However, if a peace treaty is signed to end the Korean War do not be surprised if the Moon administration allows left wing groups begin to put pressure on the US to withdraw.  Think of it as a macro version of the current THAAD issue.  The left wing groups have protested and sealed off the THAAD site making life difficult for the soldiers there.  The Korean government could easily end the blockade, but choose not to.  What if in the future if these groups are allowed to blockade and make life difficult for US personnel at for example Camp Humphreys?

President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence.

The issue of signing a peace treaty to end the Korean War is one of the major objectives of North Korea and China to ultimately get USFK withdrawn from South Korea:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said he wants to bring a formal end to the Korean War this year.

“The goal of our government is to declare an official end of the Korean War this year, which marks the 65th anniversary of signing the truce agreement,” he said in an interview with Singaporean media The Straits Times, according to Yonhap. Moon is on a three-day state visit in Singapore.

After the three-year war, China, North Korea and the U.N. agreed to an armistice in 1953.

“It will provide a milestone to the process for permanent peace along with denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a peace treaty between the North and South,” said Moon.

He added that his country is discussing with the U.S. and North Korea about when and how the declaration for the end of the Korean War will be announced.  [UPI]

Here is what Moon had to say about the future of USFK:

Moon noted that the U.S. military presence in South Korea is irrelevant to the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

“South Korea and the U.S. hold a firm position on the roles and importance of U.S. Forces in Korea for sustaining peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region and the Korean peninsula,” he said.

Remember that I have long believed that President Moon cannot publicly advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the US could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

It also gives North Korea and China what they ultimately want as well, but will the North Koreans agree to denuclearization if USFK was to withdraw?  I guess we will see what happens over the next year.

The way I look at it, as long as the ROK government continues to allow the protesters to block the road and artificially make sustainment costs for THAAD more expensive they should pay for it:

South Korea’s defense ministry said Friday that the cost of operating a U.S. missile defense system installed in the South may be covered using part of Seoul’s new share of upkeep costs for U.S. forces stationed here.

The U.S. could demand South Korea shoulder some costs needed to run and keep the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system as the allies are in discussion to renew their five-year deal on defense cost-sharing.

“If the U.S. side hopes to use Seoul’s share of the U.S. forces upkeep costs to cover THAAD’s operation, it may be possible to use it within the total amount of the South’s share in accordance with sectoral needs and regulations,” the ministry said in a statement.

It could potentially spark a row as it marks a sharp difference from the government’s stance that South Korea will not bear any of the costs associated with THAAD.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest on the US-ROK cost sharing talks:

The United States has demanded South Korea share the cost of deploying U.S. strategic assets around the Korean Peninsula during recent talks to renew their cost-sharing agreement for American troops stationed here, a foreign ministry official said Friday.

Seoul rejected the request saying the issue should not be part of the negotiation.

“Our basic stance on this matter is that the agreement deals with how to share the upkeep cost of stationing the U.S. troops,” the official told a group of reporters on condition of anonymity.

The two sides held their second round of the talks on the southern island of Jeju earlier this week. The first round was held in Hawaii last month.

The official said that there are “big differences” to be ironed out in the amount of money proposed by each side, which he said requires more discussion going forward. He didn’t provide specific numbers.

With regard to another potential issue of how to share the cost of operating the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system that was installed here last year, he said it was not mentioned in the meeting.

He noted, however, that the matter could be discussed as the cost of the THAAD operation could be dealt with in line with the “logistical support” part stipulated in the agreement.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

I would not put too much stock in this statement which I think could be interpreted as rhetoric for the friendly audience and part of a negotiating strategy for US-ROK cost sharing and trade talks.  With that said the ROK would probably be wise to not totally dismiss his comments:

President Donald Trump hinted he may withdraw American troops from South Korea if the U.S. ally doesn’t concede more in trade negotiations, a newspaper reported.

The Washington Post quoted Trump as saying Wednesday in a fundraising speech that the United States was losing money on trade with South Korea as well as the military presence that is meant as protection against aggression from the North.

“We have a very big trade deficit with them, and we protect them,” Trump said Wednesday in audio obtained by the Post. “We lose money on trade, and we lose money on the military. We have right now 32,000 soldiers between North and South Korea. Let’s see what happens.”

“Our allies care about themselves,” he said in the 30-minute speech to donors in Missouri. “They don’t care about us.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the Trump administration is remaining committed to keeping their promise of making the ROK government pay more for the upkeep of USFK:

The negotiations to renew South Korea and the United States’ deal on defense cost sharing are likely to be a “difficult” path, the top South Korean negotiator said Monday following the inaugural round of talks last week.

The allies kicked off the first round of the talks in Honolulu, Hawaii, last Wednesday to renew their five-year Special Measures Agreement governing Seoul’s share of the upkeep of the 28,500 American forces stationed in South Korea for defense against the North.

In the three-day “exploratory” talks last week, the two sides discussed at the “rudimentary level” the contributions each has made to the development of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the positions they have over the next defense cost sharing deal, a senior government official said in a background briefing.

“Both sides shared the understanding that the current negotiations should be led in a way that intensifies the combined defense posture and further develops the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” the official said.

He noted they are likely to be “difficult negotiations,” adding that the allies may take several rounds of talks to reach a new agreement. His comments hint that the allies had wide differences as they entered into the negotiations, especially after President Donald Trump’s repeated call to raise South Korea’s share of the defense financing.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the ROK government has made their decision to continue on with the execution of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises after the conclusion of the Paralympics:

South Korea and the United States confirmed Tuesday that they will hold joint war games on the divided peninsula after the Olympics despite concerns the drills could jeopardize a fragile detente with North Korea.

The longtime allies had agreed to postpone the annual exercises until after the Winter Games in a bid to ease rising tensions with the nuclear-armed North, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.

U.S. military officials have always said the operations known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle would resume after the March 8-18 Paralympics. But some observers speculated that Seoul may ask for them to be further postponed or scaled down to maintain a spirit of reconciliation with Pyongyang.

Defense Minister Song Young-moo dismissed that idea on Tuesday, telling a parliamentary defense committee that the allies would announce the start date for the drills by the end of March, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but what this means is that the ROK government is not ready to make concessions yet to the Kim regime in regards to the US-ROK alliance.

It also means that the North Koreans will use this exercise as an excuse to restart missile testing.  What type of missile they test will be a sign of how serious they are about future talks.  If they launch short range missiles into the Sea of Japan that will be seen as less provocative then firing missiles over Japan or testing ICBMs that could hit the United States.

The upcoming decision to me is pretty clear, what does the Moon administration value more, continued appeasement of the Kim regime or maintaining the readiness of US and ROK military forces?:

President Moon Jae-in is facing a growing dilemma over South Korea’s planned military exercises with the United States, with North Korea offering a rare gesture for warmer inter-Korean relations.

On Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in a meeting with its highest-ranking delegation which returned to Pyongyang Sunday after ending their three-day trip to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, ordered the regime to elevate the ongoing peaceful bilateral relationship with the South,.

The uncommon sign for reconciliation is raising the likelihood for a possible inter-Korean summit this year.

This is in line with President Moon’s North Korean policy under which he has underlined the need for holding enough dialogue to stop Pyongyang’s provocative military threats.

However, the South Korean government is likely to face a bumpy road ahead on the matter, as Seoul and Washington plan to resume their annual joint military exercise sometime in April. They delayed the drills – which normally take place around late February to early March – until after the Winter Olympics.

The South Korea-U.S. drills have for years drawn a strong backlash from North Korea. The Pentagon has in recent weeks reaffirmed its willingness to stage the drills right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but either way Kim Jong-un has set him self up to win because if the joint exercise is cancelled he advances his agenda of separating the US from the ROK.  If the joint exercise is executed he then uses that as an excuse to continue missile and maybe even nuclear testing.

Regardless of the decision I would expect that Pyongyang will still push for the inter-Korea summit with the South just likely on different timetables.  The Kim regime needs the inter-Korean summit in order to get their payday of reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism ventures in North Korea.  These ventures will help them skirt international sanctions to maintain revenue flowing into the regime.

Here is yet another example of how the North Koreans are continuing to try and separate the ROK and the US:

North Korea strongly condemned the South Korea-U.S. alliance Saturday, accusing their joint defense efforts of being aimed at toppling its communist regime and saying such efforts may also lead to an end of ongoing dialogue between the two Koreas.

“The South Korean government must realize its foul military consultation with the U.S. may be a foolish act that will put out the hard-earned chance of improving the North-South relationship and ruin its own fate,” Rodong Sinmun, a daily newspaper published by the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, said in a signed commentary.

The commentary was largely aimed at criticizing the two-plus-two Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group talks held last week between Seoul and Washington, in which the allies agreed to continue maintaining U.S. defense assets around the Korean Peninsula.

However, it also came one day after the allies confirmed a resumption of their delayed joint military drills in South Korea immediately following the 2018 Winter Olympic Games to be held in South Korea’s PyeongChang from Feb. 9-25.

“The exact date and size of the planned joint exercises cannot be disclosed, but they will be carried out after the close of the Olympics,” Seoul’s defense ministry said Friday.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but what this all means that after the Winter Olympics expect more provocations which the Kim regime will use US-ROK military exercises as an excuse to execute.