It's out of the news cycle & off most people's radar screens at the moment. But the failure to conclude the U.S.-ROK Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations is an opportunity for Trump to drop another chaos bomb & shred the U.S.-ROK alliance. Don't say I didn't warn you.
It seems to me that if there is no money designated to pay the employees than of course they will need to be put on leave:
A U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) letter states the USFK will send 8,700 Korean employees on unpaid leave from April 15, 2019, if Seoul and Washington do not settle a deal on their defense cost-sharing by the end of this year. Courtesy of USFK Korean Employees Union
The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) has sent a letter to the union of its Korean employees stating that it will place them on unpaid leave from mid-April 2019, if the ongoing defense-cost sharing negotiations between Seoul and Washington are not settled by the end of this year.
In the letter to USFK Korean Employees Union President Choe Ung-sik, USFK headquarters’ Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Michael Minihan said, “Unfortunately, unless the ongoing SMA negotiations can be completed in a timely manner to avoid a lapse in labor funding, we will be required to issue a general furlough notice.”
“Unless a new SMA is agreed to, it will be necessary to implement the furlough effective April 15, 2019,” Minihan said.
This is viewed by some observers as an attempt to gain concessions from Korea as the negotiations over sharing the cost of stationing American troops here are making little headway. They say that the U.S. is “taking Korean workers hostage” to demand a bigger payment from the government.
Time has been running out in the negotiations in relation to the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a five-year defense contract between Seoul and Washington. It will expire Dec. 31.
The notice may possibly affect as many as 8,700 whose wages are co-paid by both the government and the USFK.
Via a reader tip comes the below video of a conference held recently by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) think tank. The conference featured a number of ROK Drop favorites such as Dr. Tara O, Joshua Stanton from One Free Korea, David Maxwell, and Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt.
A lot of great points were made by the speakers during the conference. For example Dr. O points out the jailing of conservative media figures and how the ROK media is suppressing coverage of anti-Moon administration protests. For example below is a picture of a protest that was not covered by the media. She even discussed an example of how Kim Jong-un could become the President of South Korea if a confederation is created.
Dr. Tara O discusses freedom of speech in the ROK.
Joshua Stanton also provided a lot of great examples of how Korean politicians have suppressed the media though it is in overdrive now.
I still believe that a final US-ROK cost sharing deal will be reached as part of the ongoing negotiations with North Korea. If Washington drops sanctions like Seoul wants than I think they will give the Trump administration the deal they want on cost sharing. I guess we will see what happens:
South Korea and the United States will resume negotiations over military cost-sharing issues in Seoul next week.
Seoul’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday the tenth round of negotiations concerning the bilateral Special Measures Agreement(SMA) will be held for three days from Tuesday, where the two sides will have in-depth discussions to coordinate stances based on the previous talks.
According to the ministry, the foreign ministers of the two countries agreed during their meeting in Washington on Thursday that they will continue to encourage the negotiators to produce mutually satisfying results. [KBS World Radio]
As I have been saying watch and see if the Key Resolve exercise get scheduled to be executed this spring:
AH-64 Apache attacker helicopters parked at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, April 1, when South Korea and the U.S. began their annual Foal Eagle joint military exercise. The allies remained low-key for this year’s field drills to reflect inter-Korean reconciliation. Yonhap
South Korea and the United States will likely suspend their joint field exercises next year amid the detente reached on the peninsula with North Korea.
Both sides are in discussions on whether to postpone their annual large-scale Foal Eagle combined tactical training exercise slated for March, but no official consensus has been reached yet.
“The military authorities may suspend major joint military exercises next year, including Foal Eagle, but nothing specific has been decided between the defense chiefs of the two countries,” a military official said Thursday without elaborating.
However, Seoul and Washing will carry out a series of computer-simulated command post exercises next year, as they do not pose a serious security threat to the North.
The two countries are known to be discussing conducting the Key Resolve computerized command post drill in March despite the possible suspension of its real time counterpart, Foal Eagle. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but the fact that Key Resolve is being discussed could be a signal that the Trump administration doesn’t think the denuclearization and subsequent peace overtures are serious. This also gives the Trump administration a bargaining chip if a second Trump-Kim summit is held.
My theory on the current US-ROK cost sharing negotiations is that this will ultimately be tied to a successful second Trump-Kim summit and US dropping sanctions on North Korea. If the Trump administration drops sanctions I suspect that the Moon administration will cut a favorable US-ROK cost sharing deal to pay back President Trump. If sanctions are not dropped the Moon administration will likely continue to play hardball on this issue:
South Korea and the United States failed to reach a deal on sharing the cost of American troops stationed on the peninsula in formal negotiations last week, a government official here said Monday.
Senior diplomats of the two sides had three-day talks on the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) to set the amount of Seoul’s financial contributions for the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in Honolulu, Hawaii. It was the ninth round of bargaining, as the existing accord, which took effect in 2014, is to expire at the end of this year.
“There was some progress, but no final agreement was reached,” the foreign ministry official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.
Differences remain over how much Seoul will pay and some other issues, although the work to draw up a joint statement moved forward in general, he added. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link and draw your own conclusions.
Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK:
Almost immediately in the wake of the signing of an end-of-war declaration, the UN Command, shorn of its mission to defend the peace in the peninsula, would be dismantled. Moreover, OPCON transfer, now envisioned to be completed by 2020, would defang and dismantle the Combined Forces Command. Why? Despite protestations to the contrary, no U.S. commander would submit his command over U.S. forces-the preeminent military in the world-to a foreign commander in the actual prosecution of war.
The joint communique of the recently concluded 50th U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting (SMC) states that the two sides, following OPCON transfer, shall “maintain the current CFC structure” and that the post-OPCON transfer CFC shall “have an ROK four-star general as the Commander and a U.S. four-star general as the Deputy Commander” (Paragraph 9). It’s a proposition that sounds as credible as Richard Nixon’s promise to Park Chung-hee that no U.S. troops will be withdrawn just a year before the withdrawal of an entire division of twenty thousand soldiers.
A peace treaty between the United States and the DPRK, a long-held goal by North Korea, would call into question rationale for maintaining U.S. troops in South Korea. If and when such a treaty comes into effect, then the question “Why are the troops there, in South Korea, when the U.S. and North Korea have a peace treaty?” would be raised repeatedly by politicians and the public in Seoul and Washington, not to mention Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow.
Once the U.S. forces leave South Korea, the bilateral alliance will be that only in name. Beyond the loss of credible U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK, the virtual abrogation of the alliance would leave some glaring holes in the ROK’s defense capabilities, for example: Surveillance-reconnaissance-signal intelligence capabilities, early warning and missile defense, counter-battery fire and sensitive military technology procurement abilities, just to name a few. [The National Interest]
So does anyone really think a ROK general is really going to command US forces during a conflict?:
South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo, left, and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis hold up the Alliance Guiding Principles they signed at the Pentagon on Wednesday. [MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE]Seoul and Washington signed a strategic guideline on Wednesday that paves the way for a Korean-led combined defense mechanism after the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) from the United States.
South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis convened the 50th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Pentagon and signed the Alliance Guiding Principles to ensure a strong combined defense posture following the transfer.
The mutual guideline guarantees the continued stationing of U.S. troops in Korea and the retaining of the Combined Forces Command (CFC) and the United Nations Command after the transfer of Opcon from Washington to Seoul. It places a four-star Korean general as the head of the future CFC, with a U.S. general serving as deputy commander.
Washington further committed to a continued extension to Korea of its nuclear, conventional and missile defense deterrence capacities even after the transfer. This should quell some concerns in Seoul that the transfer of Opcon could lead to the withdrawal of some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea or the pulling back of American extended deterrence over the peninsula.
The two sides will work toward an initial operational capability (IOC) certification of a Korea-led combined defense posture next year. However, the specific timing of the Opcon transition will be determined later. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but this to me seems to be more of creating the impression to the Washington establishment that the Moon administration wants US forces to stay in Korea while using their surrogates to make life difficult for them. Look no further then the current THAAD site in South Korea.
President Moon is pretty repeating the North Korean, Russian, and positions on the Korean peninsula:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said a “new order” was in the making on the Korean Peninsula, with a rapidly changing diplomatic dynamic surrounding North Korea.
Remarking on an expected visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Russia and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible reciprocal visit to Pyongyang in coming weeks, Moon said a new order was being “established on the Korean Peninsula,” which he said would pave the way for setting up a new order in Northeast Asia during a cabinet meeting at the Blue House.
“Aside from the second North-U.S. summit,” he said, “North Korean leader Kim is expected to visit Russia while Xi Jinping of China is expected to make a visit to the North. A North-Japan summit is also an open possibility.
“In other words, a new order on the Korean Peninsula is being established.”
Moon went on to say that what he described as a “new order” was a must for the two Koreas to set in place a permanent peace regime and achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but the “new order” Moon is likely talking about is the confederation between North and South Korea on the Kim regime’s terms. Also notice how he says the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”. This is the same terms the North Koreans have been using. South Korea does not have nuclear weapons so the term can only mean ending the US nuclear umbrella protection of South Korea and thus the end of the US-ROK alliance.
It seems it is becoming clearer and clearer that this is the ultimate end game for the Moon administration.
The anti-US groups already demand US troop withdrawal, despite majority #SouthKoreans supporting the US presence. The protests would become feverish a la candlelights if the "end of war" is declared, & Moon will say the "candlelights" ordered him for the US military withdrawal. https://t.co/CFZ7Xg9uMI
