Tag: US-ROK Alliance

I think it is becoming very clear that if the ROK government does not pay more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance that it would not be surprising to see a reduction of troops in South Korea within the next two years or the removal of dependents to save money:

 South Korean and U.S. officials had significantly narrowed differences in recent negotiations over how to share the upkeep costs for American troops stationed here, but the working-level progress fell apart as the U.S. leadership rejected it, sources said Tuesday.
Seoul and Washington have held a series of talks since March over how much financial cost South Korea should bear for 28,500 troops of U.S. Forces Korea amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for a sharp rise in Seoul’s share.
Earlier this month, the two sides tried to reach a final deal on the issue during the 10th round of negotiations held in Seoul and narrowed differences to a gap of about 100 billion won, but the progress fell through as the U.S. leadership opposed the idea.
A government source said, “We are nearly back to square one.”
The two couldn’t even schedule the timing of the next round of meetings, as both apparently needed time for policy coordination and consultation within their own governments.

Yonhap

President Trump has apparently linked the reboot of cost sharing talks to the decision to replace Defense Secretary James Mattis:

On Monday, he wrote on Twitter that, “We are substantially subsidizing the Militaries of many VERY rich countries all over the world, while at the same time these countries take total advantage of the U.S., and our TAXPAYERS, on Trade. General Mattis did not see this as a problem. I DO, and it is being fixed!”
Although he didn’t pinpoint South Korea, it is understood that he directed the comment at Seoul, with which the U.S. is currently negotiating over defense costs.

You can read more at the link.

I think this whole OPCON issue, just like the US-ROK cost sharing talks are all linked back to whatever the final outcome of the US and North Korea denuclearization talks are. Depending how that plays out the OPCON and cost sharing talks will get worked out as well:

 South Korea’s defense chief on Thursday said the coming year will be a starting point for the test of the country’s ability to command its own troops in the event of a war.
Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo made the remark as he presided over a meeting to assess the preparations for the transfer of wartime operational control from the United States.
South Korea handed over operational control of its troops to the U.S.-led U.N. command during the Korean War. It retook peacetime OPCON in 1994, but wartime OPCON remains in the hands of the United States.

Yonhap

Here is an analysis piece in the Stars & Stripes about what the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis means for the US-ROK alliance:

Mattis didn’t mention South Korea, but his departure will deprive officials in Seoul of somebody they considered a voice of reason in the Trump administration. It also comes as the president’s surprise decision on Syria earlier this week underscored the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy.
“It’s certainly going to cause concern, I think, in South Korea,” said Jenny Town, a Korea specialist at the Washington, D.C.-based Stimson Center. “Mattis is one of the few people they looked to for direction and reason in an administration where it has been often difficult to decipher what our policy is and where our relationship is going.”

She noted that Trump has said he may be willing to pull troops out of South Korea to save money.
“It’s hard to see where this goes until we have a better sense of who’s coming next, but it’s also hard to see that this move is going to improve relations both with our friends or our adversaries at this point,” Town said.

[Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but trying to equate withdrawing troops from Syria with withdrawing USFK is quite a stretch as speculated on later in the article. The US has treaty obligations with South Korea that cannot cause a quick troops withdrawal like what is expected in Syria.

Something that could lead to a partial US troop withdrawal in South Korea it is the ongoing US-ROK cost sharing negotiations. Another possibility to save money as well as send a message to North Korea if denuclearization talks are not going well, is restricting US military dependents from South Korea:

The friction escalated in January when Trump ordered Mattis to end the practice of allowing the family members of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea to accompany them during their deployments. But Mattis, with the assistance of chief of staff John Kelly, put off implementing the directive, say one defense official and one former administration official, angering Trump.
Trump repeatedly said he wanted to sign an order changing the policy on military dependents in South Korea, but Mattis and other officials, including Kelly, tried to stall him, according to three former officials. “It was kind of like a game of tag. There were plenty of other people, in addition to Mattis, who slow-walked that,” the former official said. The order was never implemented.
“He knows that he told them to do it and they didn’t do it,” another former senior White House official said.

NBC News via a reader tip

I guess we will see how all of this plays out over the next year.

It's out of the news cycle & off most people's radar screens at the moment. But the failure to conclude the U.S.-ROK Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations is an opportunity for Trump to drop another chaos bomb & shred the U.S.-ROK alliance. Don't say I didn't warn you.

— Daniel Pinkston (@dpinkston) December 21, 2018

It seems to me that if there is no money designated to pay the employees than of course they will need to be put on leave: 

The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) has sent a letter to the union of its Korean employees stating that it will place them on unpaid leave from mid-April 2019, if the ongoing defense-cost sharing negotiations between Seoul and Washington are not settled by the end of this year.

In the letter to USFK Korean Employees Union President Choe Ung-sik, USFK headquarters’ Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Michael Minihan said, “Unfortunately, unless the ongoing SMA negotiations can be completed in a timely manner to avoid a lapse in labor funding, we will be required to issue a general furlough notice.”

“Unless a new SMA is agreed to, it will be necessary to implement the furlough effective April 15, 2019,” Minihan said.

This is viewed by some observers as an attempt to gain concessions from Korea as the negotiations over sharing the cost of stationing American troops here are making little headway. They say that the U.S. is “taking Korean workers hostage” to demand a bigger payment from the government.

Time has been running out in the negotiations in relation to the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a five-year defense contract between Seoul and Washington. It will expire Dec. 31.

The notice may possibly affect as many as 8,700 whose wages are co-paid by both the government and the USFK.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Via a reader tip comes the below video of a conference held recently by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) think tank.  The conference featured a number of ROK Drop favorites such as Dr. Tara O, Joshua Stanton from One Free Korea, David Maxwell, and Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt.  

A lot of great points were made by the speakers during the conference.  For example Dr. O points out the jailing of conservative media figures and how the ROK media is suppressing coverage of anti-Moon administration protests.  For example below is a picture of a protest that was not covered by the media.  She even discussed an example of how Kim Jong-un could become the President of South Korea if a confederation is created. 

Joshua Stanton also provided a lot of great examples of how Korean politicians have suppressed the media though it is in overdrive now.

I recommend watching the whole thing at the link. 

I still believe that a final US-ROK cost sharing deal will be reached as part of the ongoing negotiations with North Korea.  If Washington drops sanctions like Seoul wants than I think they will give the Trump administration the deal they want on cost sharing.  I guess we will see what happens: 

South Korea and the United States will resume negotiations over military cost-sharing issues in Seoul next week. 

Seoul’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday the tenth round of negotiations concerning the bilateral Special Measures Agreement(SMA) will be held for three days from Tuesday, where the two sides will have in-depth discussions to coordinate stances based on the previous talks. 

According to the ministry, the foreign ministers of the two countries agreed during their meeting in Washington on Thursday that they will continue to encourage the negotiators to produce mutually satisfying results.   [KBS World Radio]

You can read the rest at the link.

As I have been saying watch and see if the Key Resolve exercise get scheduled to be executed this spring:

South Korea and the United States will likely suspend their joint field exercises next year amid the detente reached on the peninsula with North Korea.

Both sides are in discussions on whether to postpone their annual large-scale Foal Eagle combined tactical training exercise slated for March, but no official consensus has been reached yet.

“The military authorities may suspend major joint military exercises next year, including Foal Eagle, but nothing specific has been decided between the defense chiefs of the two countries,” a military official said Thursday without elaborating.

However, Seoul and Washing will carry out a series of computer-simulated command post exercises next year, as they do not pose a serious security threat to the North.

The two countries are known to be discussing conducting the Key Resolve computerized command post drill in March despite the possible suspension of its real time counterpart, Foal Eagle.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but the fact that Key Resolve is being discussed could be a signal that the Trump administration doesn’t think the denuclearization and subsequent peace overtures are serious.  This also gives the Trump administration a bargaining chip if a second Trump-Kim summit is held.

My theory on the current US-ROK cost sharing negotiations is that this will ultimately be tied to a successful second Trump-Kim summit and US dropping sanctions on North Korea.  If the Trump administration drops sanctions I suspect that the Moon administration will cut a favorable US-ROK cost sharing deal to pay back President Trump.  If sanctions are not dropped the Moon administration will likely continue to play hardball on this issue:

Senior diplomats of the two sides had three-day talks on the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) to set the amount of Seoul’s financial contributions for the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in Honolulu, Hawaii. It was the ninth round of bargaining, as the existing accord, which took effect in 2014, is to expire at the end of this year.

“There was some progress, but no final agreement was reached,” the foreign ministry official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.

Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK: