It is going to be really interesting to see what President Trump says during his visit to South Korea. On prior foreign visits since taking the Presidency he has been pretty restrained with what he has said. However, it will be interesting to see if he makes any “tear down this wall” like statements to North Korea during his visit:
President Donald Trump
South Korea will provide the best treatment it can offer to a foreign dignitary when U.S.President Donald Trump arrives here Nov.7 for a two-day state visit, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.
Trump will be the first sitting U.S.head of state to make a “state visit” in 25 years following George H. W.Bush in 1992. He will also be the first head of state to visit Korea since the Moon Jae-in government was launched in May.
“A state visit is made only once for a country during a Korean president’s term,” presidential spokesman Park Soo-hyun said.“Considering this, Trump’s state visit means we are treating him with the best respect as a top guest.”
Foreign leaders’ visits are divided into state, official, working and private visits, with each governed by different protocols.
A state visit usually includes welcome and farewell ceremonies upon arrival and departure, an artillery salute, an official welcome ceremony at Cheong Wa Dae, a state dinner with a performance, a summit and cultural programs.Trump’s visit this time will include almost all such events, according to Park.
Trump and first lady Melania will arrive here in the morning following their visit to Japan.They will leave for Beijing in the afternoon the next day.Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, will also accompany the first couple as a member of the official entourage. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump will arrive on the morning of November 7th and is scheduled to give a speech to the National Assembly after visiting the Blue House. There are no plans to visit the DMZ during his visit because of the current tensions with North Korea.
The Steve Bannon of the President Moon administration may be putting out a trial balloon of the North Korea policy the ROK President may ultimately move towards:
Moon Chung-in
Meanwhile President Moon has declared a commitment to avoiding war no matter what, and last week Moon Chung-in, his special envoy for unification issues, approvingly stated that many South Koreans are ready to decouple the alliance in order to keep the peace. The Yonsei professor also renewed his opposition to the stationing of THAAD and called for recognition of the North as a nuclear power. While claiming not to speak for the president, despite his special status, he made sure to add that many people in the Blue House agree with him.
Let there be no doubt that Professor Moon is saying what President Moon would say if Kim Jong Un could just bring himself to sit quietly for a month or two. The envoy’s apparent function (his famous bluntness precluding any traditionally diplomatic one) is to habituate a domestic audience to messages the Blue House will issue in due course. [B.R. Myers]
I highly recommend reading the entire article by ROK Drop favorite B.R. Myers at the link. However, is anyone else seeing a possible perfect storm of events that could lead to a massive shake up in the US-ROK alliance?
That is what columnist Oh Young-jin in the Korea Times is saying that South Korea should prepare for :
Oh Young-jin
Just the talk of a U.S. pullout could shake the Korean economy upside down, sending foreign investors packing and leaving.
So if there would be a separation between the two, it would be the U.S. that has a change of heart.
There have been distinct signs that this is happening.
First, Henry Kissinger, a U.S. guru of diplomacy serving as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations, is a strong advocate for that. Typical of big power politics, wrapped in the trappings of realpolitik, the Nobel Peace Prize winner suggests that the U.S. should deal directly with China to resolve the North Korean crisis.
He suggests that the U.S. address China’s biggest concern ― Korean unification led by Seoul that sees American GIs and their Korean allies breathing down its neck with the buffer of the North gone. Kissinger’s solution is pulling out U.S. troops out of the Korean Peninsula.
Second, why is the Kissinger formula noteworthy? The answer lies in Steve Bannon, a mentor to U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently was fired as chief strategist. He was right on the money when he referred to the U.S. withdrawal from the South to settle the North Korean crisis, although he dismissed it as a remote possibility. (………)
Seoul should be prepared for three contingencies ― a total U.S. withdrawal, partial and maintenance of the status quo. The first scenario is comparable to the Paris peace accord struck by the U.S. and the communist Vietnamese, which led to the fall of Saigon as the U.S. troops were leaving. The examples for the second are Iraq and Afghanistan where the U.S. has drastically reduced its troops, which has seen an occasional surge. The third is the current situation. [Korea Times]
It seems like an inevitability that the ROK will end up paying more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance since it is an issue that President Trump continues to highlight:
President Moon Jae-in, left, shakes hand with U.S. President Donald Trump in their joint press conference in the Rose Garden of the White House on Friday. [YONHAP]President Moon Jae-in faced a demand on Friday by U.S. President Donald Trump to resolve trade imbalance between the two countries and pay more of the cost for the presence of U.S. troops in Korea, while winning assurances for stronger defense measures to deter North Korea’s rapidly advancing threats.
In the joint press conference that followed the Oval Office summit, Trump said the era of strategic patience with the North Korean regime has failed. “And frankly, that patience is over,” he added. After calling upon regional powers and all responsible nations to implement sanctions and pressure North Korea to end its nuclear and missile programs, Trump said now the goal is “peace, stability and prosperity for the region.”
The United States will defend itself and its allies, Trump said, and as part of that commitment, he said he wants to ensure that the cost of U.S. military presence in South Korea is equitably shared. “Burden sharing is a very important factor,” he said. “A factor that is becoming more and more prevalent, certainly in this administration.”
Trump also spoke of a “fair and reciprocal economic relationship” with South Korea, while complaining that the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement has increased the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea by more than $11 billion. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Took a lunchtime walk to the White House just in time to see the Trump-Moon motorcade pass by. Saw lots of pro-US-ROK supporters too. pic.twitter.com/Eex3vnKOCs
U.S. President Donald Trump should know that South Korea has already paid more than what he has billed the country for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, analysts said Tuesday.
Trump has insisted that Korea pay $1 billion for the anti-missile shield and his top aides also claim that the two countries should renegotiate the terms of the deployment agreement.
On top of the provision of the land for the missile defense unit, South Korea has already sustained huge damage from economic retaliation by China.
Company officials and analysts say that the value of losses Korea has suffered from retaliatory steps has to have topped $1 billion. They expect the amount to snowball to as high as $20 billion if friction over THAAD is not addressed. [Korea Times]
So far, so good for Defense Secretary Mattis’ visit to South Korea:
U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis (Yonhap)
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Thursday began his two-day visit to South Korea in his first overseas trip aimed at underscoring the U.S. security commitment to the Asian ally amid growing threats from North Korea.
After landing at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul, at 12:30 p.m., Mattis headed to the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) headquarters in Yongsan, Seoul, according to the defense ministry.
Mattis was briefed by USFK Commander Gen. Vincent Brooks on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the region, including Seoul-Washington’s joint readiness against North Korean threats that include that it is close to test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, military officials said.
He then met with Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn and National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin and attended a dinner event hosted by Defense Minister Han Min-koo at a Seoul hotel.
Hwang is currently serving as acting president after President Park Geun-hye was impeached by the National Assembly over a corruption scandal. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but Mattis has reconfirmed the US commitment to deploy the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea despite Chinese objections.
This year’s Key Resolve exercise will have a little twist with the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff leading it:
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff will lead a combined military exercise with the U.S. from a new command center in March amid growing threats from North Korea, military officials said Monday.
“During the upcoming Key Resolve exercise, Seoul’s JCS will be responsible for exercise planning and control, operation of opposing forces, and after-drill meetings,” an official at the defense ministry said.
The exercise’s command center will be set up in an underground bunker of South Korea’s Capital Defense Command, as the JCS will lead the annual exercise with the U.S. staff playing a supporting role, according to the ministry.
When the U.S. side led the exercise, the command center used to be set up at the bunker of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command.
The JCS led the Key Resolve drills in 2013 as South Korea was scheduled to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) from Washington in 2015. But the OPCON transfer was pushed back amid Pyongyang’s provocations. Seoul and Washington agreed on the “conditions-based” transfer, which observers say could come in mid-2020s. [Yonhap]
It appears everything went well with the phone call between President Trump and acting ROK President Hwang:
President Donald Trump reaffirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to the alliance with South Korea during a phone call Monday with the country’s acting president.
The leaders also agreed to strengthen joint defense capabilities as they face a growing nuclear and missile threat from North Korea, the White House said in a statement.
The call — the first time Trump and acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn have spoken — offered much-sought reassurance to South Koreans nervous that the new U.S. administration might change longstanding policies toward the divided peninsula. [Stars & Stripes]
