Tag: South Korea

The article is claiming declining voter turn out is bad news for the conservative Presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo. I think this is because many conservatives voter know the race was lost when Kim Moon-soo could not create a combined ticket with Lee Jun-seok and are staying home. With liberals united around Lee Jae-myung the conservatives unless something extraordinary happens, have no way to win this election with a divided vote:

Public officials on May 30 move boxes filled with ballots cast during the presidential election’s early voting period in Seoul. [YONHAP]

“Early voting turnout in the Daegu-North Gyeongsang region had dropped compared to the last presidential election — from 37.66 percent to 28.69 percent — despite both major parties encouraging early voting because voter sentiment has not solidified as much as expected,” said Cho Gwi-dong, head of political strategy at Min Political Consulting. 
  
“The real variable is how many of these disheartened voters can be mobilized for Election Day.” 
  
Much also depends on whether swing voters and anti-Lee Jae-myung conservatives gravitate toward People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo or Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok. Analysts suggest these voters remain undecided, caught between a “bandwagon effect” favoring the perceived front-runner and an “underdog effect” that draws support to a surging outsider. 
  
“This election is fundamentally unfavorable to the PPP because it was the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol that led to the snap election in the first place,” said Lee Jae-mook, a professor of political science at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

With Lee Jae-myung leading by double digits in the polls this massive early voter turn out means there are a far fewer people to convince to change their vote in the upcoming days for the conservatives:

The two-day early voting began at 3,568 polling stations nationwide earlier in the day. The official election is slated for next Tuesday.

An all-time high of 19.58 percent of voters cast their ballots Thursday on the first day of early voting for the upcoming presidential election to elect the successor to former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was ousted over his failed martial law bid.

More than 8.69 million out of 44,391,871 registered voters, or 19.58 percent, cast their ballots from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Thursday, according to the National Election Commission (NEC).

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

For an organization that has been facing accusations of voter fraud, so much so that it was one of the reasons former President Yoon tried to declare martial law, this is not a good look:

Police are stationed at the Gusinchon-dong community center where ballots were allegedly taken outside the polling station on May 29 in western Seoul. [JOONGANG ILBO]

On the first day of early voting for the 21st presidential election, dozens of ballot papers were seen outside a polling station in Seoul, sparking controversy and raising concerns regarding electoral integrity. 
  
The National Election Commission (NEC) acknowledged the incident Thursday and attributed it to administrative mismanagement.

According to the NEC and eyewitnesses, between 11 a.m. and noon Thursday, a number of people were spotted holding ballot papers and return envelopes outside the early voting site at the Gusinchon-dong Community Center in Seodaemun District, western Seoul. 
  
A high number of out-of-district voters caused congestion, outlets including Maeil Business Newspaper reported, leading some citizens to receive their ballots after verifying their identities and then wait outside the polling station before voting. The NEC estimated that around 30 to 40 people had received ballots and were waiting outside. 
  
Several witnesses reported seeing people walk around the neighborhood with their ballot papers. One staff member at a nearby university said the queue stretched roughly 30 meters (98 feet) when they visited during lunch. 
  
“I thought the envelopes in their hands were informational pamphlets, but they were actually ballot papers and return envelopes,” they said.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Really nothing new came out of this final debate, each candidate hammered the same talking points that those who follow ROK politics already know:

From left, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, Kwon Young-kook of the Democratic Labor Party, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the minor New Reform Party pose for a photo ahead of their third and final debate on May 27 at the MBC studio in Mapo District, western Seoul. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

Lee also said it is important not to “ignore the relationship with China and Russia,” calling to “appropriately manage” these ties. He said “there is no need to unnecessarily antagonize” these relationships, underscoring that “peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is very important.”   
  
Kim in turn said that North Korean leader “Kim Jong-un’s dictatorship threatens our lives and property with its nuclear weapons and missile provocations.” He warned that within South Korea “there are forces advocating for the withdrawal of U.S. troops stationed and the dismantling of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, shaking the foundation of our nation. 
  
He raised Lee’s alleged links to illegal remittances to the North during his time as Gyeonggi governor and called to “create a transparent and dignified inter-Korean relationship.” Kim further pledged to “strengthen nuclear deterrence based on the South Korea-U.S. alliance.”  

Joong Ang Ilbo

Basically Lee Jae-myung wants better relations with China, Russia, and North Korea without going into detail on what concessions he plans to give to do this. Kim Moon-soo on the other hand wants to focus on deterrence. Part of that deterrence is bringing tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea which Lee disagrees with:

When asked by DP’s Lee on his stance on South Korea’s nuclear armament, PPP’s Kim replied, “Rather than arming ourselves with nuclear weapons, we should achieve a nuclear balance,” stressing it should be done so “carefully within the scope of maintaining the Korea-U.S. alliance.” 
  
Lee accused the former labor minister of being wishy-washy, and Kim clarified that if nuclear armament comes at the cost of the Seoul-Washington alliance, “then arming ourselves with nuclear weapons will be ineffective.” 
  
Lee questioned Kim on his position supporting redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea.   
  
“If we redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula, we can’t demand North Korea’s denuclearization,” Lee said. He noted that there is speculation that the United States placed South Korea on its “sensitive and other designated countries list (SCL)” because of suspicions of Seoul’s nuclear armament intentions.  

How long must this fiction of North Korean denuclearization go on? There is no way Kim Jong-un will ever denuclearize. That possibly vanished a decade plus ago. North Korea’s nuclear weapons can now at best be managed not eliminated with negotiations. Here is what was discussed about the THAAD missile defense system located outside of Seongju:

The two Lees in turn clashed over the deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system to South Korea. 
  
Lee Jun-seok noted Lee Jae-myung had previously claimed that “Thaad deployment is for U.S. defense,” arguing that the DP candidate misunderstands the weapons system and echoed arguments typically raised by China. 
  
Lee Jae-myung replied, “South Korea’s defense should be based on its own independent missile defense system.” But he said that since the Thaad system has been deployed despite much controversy, further debate is unhelpful to Seoul’s diplomatic and security strategy.

Lee Jae-myung has made it clear in the past that he does not support THAAD in part because he believes it antagonizes China. China has long made false claims that THAAD was deployed to spy on them instead of to better protect South Korea from North Korean ballistic missiles.

As far as developing an independent missile defense system this is something the ROK has been trying to develop for many years. The US would likely support ROK efforts to improve domestic missile defense in order to take pressure off US air defenses which are in heavy demand around the world to include having to deploy a Patriot battalion off the peninsula to support world-wide defense obligations.

The overseas voter turnout for the Korean presidential election is extremely high. It will be interesting if this race is close if these votes will be what decides it:

The preliminary overseas voter turnout for the June 3 presidential election has reached a record high of 79.5 percent, the election watchdog said Monday. 

Of an estimated 1.97 million eligible overseas voters, 205,268 out of 258,254 people registered on the voter roll cast their ballots during the six-day overseas voting period that began last Tuesday, the National Election Commission said. 

That tentatively represents a voter turnout of 79.5 percent, the highest since the country adopted absentee voting for presidential and general elections in 2012. 

Overseas voting took place from May 20-25 at 223 polling stations across 118 countries. 

The turnout rates for the past three presidential elections were 71.1 percent in 2012, 75.3 percent in 2017 and 71.6 percent in 2022. The highest turnout for general elections was recorded last year at 62.8 percent.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

If you believe the Korean presidential polling, Lee Jae-myung is still the front runner by 9 percentage points. For Kim Moon-soo to win this he needs to some how get Lee Jun-seok to back him with his 10% of voters:

 A three-way presidential race tightened as Democratic Party (DP) candidate Lee Jae-myung lost some of his lead in the latest opinion polls, while People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo gained ground.

With the election just eight days away, opinion polls have still put Lee in front, but the gap between Lee and Kim had narrowed, while Lee Jun-seok of the minor New Reform Party (NRP) garnered his double-digit support.

A Realmeter survey released Saturday showed support for the DP’s Lee at 46.6 percent, followed by Kim with 37.6 percent and the NRP’s Lee with 10.4 percent. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

According to a Realmeter survey released on May 11, a day before the official campaign began, the DP’s Lee garnered 52.1 percent support against Kim’s 31.1 percent in the hypothetical three-way race that also included the NRP’s Lee, who earned 6.3 percent.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

None of these ideas being proposed will do anything significant to raise the birthrate because they all simply involve throwing money at the problem:

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung pose for a photograph with children during his campaign in South Gyeongsang on May 14. [KIM SEONG-RYONG]

The rival candidates, Kim and Lee, are seemingly on different paths regarding how to help couples conceive babies, strengthen child care and housing support and provide tax benefits for families with children. 
  
While Lee only stated his promise to strengthen medical services for couples struggling with infertility, Kim suggested more detailed plans: the state health insurance covering costs of freezing sperm and ova and state funding for fertility testing. 
  
Lee stressed “public” support in parenting services to establish a “society where everyone partakes in child care.” 
  
Instead of the current scheme where elementary schools autonomously decide the service period and curriculum, Lee plans to reinforce the central and local governments’ direct responsibility for after-school child care services. 
  
Kim kept his child care-related pledges brief. He promised to expand 24-hour and emergency care facilities and provide one-on-one care for babies and infants. When it comes to housing, Lee presented “public housing for newlyweds” as his key initiative. 
  
Public housing, provided by state authorities, offers leases for 30 to 50 years for low-income families. Currently, a two-person household can apply for public housing if their combined monthly earnings are 5.89 million won or below. 
  
However, as of Tuesday, Lee has not specified how many units will be supplied, nor potential locations. 
  
Kim also promised to supply 100,000 housing units annually, which makes the residents receive state subsidies for their housing expenses. Newlyweds would qualify for three years of support. An addition of a single child will extend the benefit for three more years.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

To raise the birthrate Korea needs couples to marry earlier. Right now Korean women on average get married at 31.6 years of age. By the time women reach 40 they probably do not want to have children so this leaves effectively about 8 years to have kids. Then you throw in that many women now work and manage careers plus the high costs of raising kids that is why there is a low birthrate.

Besides reducing costs there needs to be a cultural change in South Korea for couples to marry earlier which would conflict with women pursuing careers early in life before marriage and having kids. As long as this remains the cultural norm Korea will continue to have a low birthrate.