Tag: North Korea

Once again people that do not understand missile defense are calling for the shoot down of a North Korea ICBM test:

The United States should be prepared to shoot down a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile in the event the communist regime test-fires one as threatened, a U.S. congressman said Monday.

Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) made the remark in an interview with CNN as tensions on the Korean Peninsula are running high with the U.S. sending an aircraft carrier strike group to the waters off the divided peninsula to guard against North Korean provocations.

“That battle carrier group has been in the region before. I think Kim Jong-un, he has the ability to kill hundreds of thousands of people right now in South Korea with the push of a button. He will stop at nothing to have an intercontinental ballistic missile,” Hurd said.

“We have to ask ourselves, what are we going to do when we see a potential test of an ICBM? Are we going to try to shoot that ICBM down? Are we going to let the test go on unimpeded? These are some of the questions that should be asked when it comes to Korea,” he said.  [Yonhap]

You can read the rest at the link, but it seems like every time North Korea threatens to do an ICBM test someone says the US should shoot it down.  What people don’t realize is that certain missile defense systems are designed to shoot down certain threats. For example a Patriot battery or even a THAAD in USFK cannot shoot down an ICBM. The only thing the US military has that can shoot down an ICBM is the GMD system that protects CONUS, Alaska and Hawaii. If North Korea fires an ICBM on a test trajectory to the south like they have done in the past the GMD system is not going to be able to shoot it down.

If North Korea fires an ICBM at US territory where the GMD system has to engage it the shoot down of its ICBM will be the least of its worries because that would be an act of war.

It appears that the Chinese government has gotten the message that President Trump is serious about striking North Korea if they try anything in the near term.  However, will China’s warning towards North Korea be heeded?  I guess we will find out:

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a peaceful resolution of rising tension on the Korean peninsula in a telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday, as a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group steamed towards the region.

Trump, in an early morning note on Twitter, said the call with Xi, just days after they met in the United States, was a “very good” discussion of the “menace of North Korea”. The call came as an influential state-run Chinese newspaper warned that the Korean peninsula was the closest it has been to a “military clash” since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006.  (……)

China’s Global Times newspaper said in an editorial that North Korea should halt any plan for nuclear and missile activities “for its own security”. While widely read in China and run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, the Global Times does not represent government policy.

The newspaper noted Trump’s recent decision to launch 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian airfield in response to a deadly gas attack last week.

“Not only is Washington brimming with confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria, but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honours his promises,” it said.

“The U.S. is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting further nuclear tests. It doesn’t plan to co-exist with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang,” it said. “Pyongyang should avoid making mistakes at this time.”

The Global Times said if North Korea made another provocative move, “Chinese society” might be willing to back unprecedented sanctions, “such as restricting oil imports”.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link.

It seems like the Kim regime is trying to put pressure on the next ROK government to cancel the THAAD deployment:

North Korea claimed on Tuesday that South Korea has become “a primary target of strike” by neighboring countries with its decision to deploy a U.S. missile defense system.

In a commentary, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said South Korea will only turn itself into a victim as it presses ahead with the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD.

China has balked at the deployment, fearing that the system’s powerful radar could hurt its strategic security interests. Beijing has undertaken apparently retaliatory measures against South Korean companies and goods, as its relations with Seoul have deteriorated.

The North said South Korea has only itself to blame.

“The South Korean puppet regime is pressing ahead with the deployment of THAAD despite the strong protest of the public at home and abroad,” the KCNA’s English commentary read. “South Korea, which turned into the frontline base and nuclear outpost for the U.S. in carrying out its strategy for dominating Asia-Pacific, has become a primary target of strike by the neighboring countries due to the THAAD deployment, whereby the South Korean people cannot but fall victim to it.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

The below theory does make sense because North Korea can get the technical data it needs from this test to advance their nuclear program and then use a nuclear freeze as bargaining chip to get free goodies from the incoming left leaning ROK government.  Then at a time of their choosing North Korea can break the agreement again, blame the US and the ROK for some made up reason and continue testing.  We have seen this before and it looks like whoever the incoming ROK government is wants to play this game again with the North.  However, the real wild card is does President Trump want to play this game?:

An expert said Monday that North Korea may carry out an upgraded nuclear test before a key anniversary in late April to have an upper hand in relations with the next South Korea government.

The possible test is also likely to be the last before Pyongyang sophisticates its nuclear capability, according to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute.

“The possibility of North Korea pushing ahead with a nuclear test before the (85th) anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army on April 25 cannot be ruled out,” Cheong said in a forum in Seoul.

“It is assumed that North Korea would finish sophisticating its nuclear capabilities through the last nuclear test ahead of the launch of a new administration in the South before seeking to mend the fence with the new administration using a nuclear test freeze as a negotiating card,” he noted.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

As legions of ex-Obama officials endorse the strike, it's more and more clear the degree to which Obama was resisting his own advisors

— Christopher Hayes (@chrislhayes) April 7, 2017

Marathoners run on a street in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang on April 9, 2017, held to mark the April 15 birth anniversary of the country’s late founder Kim Il-sung, in this photo provided by the Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

I have no doubt that President Trump will consult with the ROK government before any preemptive strike on North Korea, the real question is how long before any strike will he consult and what influence will the ROK have on the decision?:

The U.S. Donald Trump administration must have prior consultation with Seoul before taking any confrontational actions concerning North Korea, including launching a preemptive strike, South Korean politicians said.

The politicians, including presidential candidate Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), said Seoul is directly involved in the North Korean issue, noting that any actions taken by Washington will have a direct impact on the Korean Peninsula.  (…….)

“South Korea should be the owner of North Korean issues and take the lead in dealing with them rather than letting neighboring countries such as the U.S. and China manage them,” Moon told reporters, Saturday, referring to the outcome of the summit talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“The U.S. is talking about various possibilities regarding its confrontational actions on the North. The U.S. must consult with South Korea before whatever measure it takes,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Here is some more signaling from the Trump administration to North Korea that the US is ready to react in response to any near term provocation:

U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster said Sunday that President Donald Trump has ordered him to prepare “a full range of options” to the nuclear and missile threats North Korea poses to the U.S. and its allies.

McMaster also said on “Fox News Sunday” that it was a “prudent” decision to send the San Diego-based USS Carl Vinson strike group toward the Korean Peninsula, a move designed to warn Pyongyang against additional provocations.

“North Korea has been engaged in a pattern of provocative behavior. This is a rogue regime that is now a nuclear capable regime, and (Chinese) President Xi (Jinping) and President Trump agreed that that is unacceptable, that what must happen is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” McMaster said.

“And so, the president has asked us to be prepared to give him a full range of options to remove that threat to the American people and to our allies and partners in the region,” he said.  [Yonhap]

It will be interesting to see what North Korea does?

It seems for them strategically it would makes sense to wait a few months let the current tensions to blow over and have US attention focused else where before committing another provocation.  Right now they have the focus of the Trump administration focused on them very closely which may mean a forceful response to any provocation they commit.

It is pretty clear that the Trump administration is sending another signal to North Korea that if they try something here in the short term the US is ready to respond:

A U.S. Navy strike group will be moving toward the western Pacific Ocean near the Korean peninsula as a show of force, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday, as concerns grow about North Korea’s advancing weapons program.

Earlier this month North Korea tested a liquid-fueled Scud missile which only traveled a fraction of its range.

The strike group, called Carl Vinson, includes an aircraft carrier and will make its way from Singapore toward the Korean peninsula, according to the official, who was not authorized to speak to the media and requested anonymity.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link.