With the US military ready to respond to any nuclear or ICBM provocations from North Korea, I wonder if the Kim regime is setting conditions for justifying a provocation in the Yellow Sea instead with this recent announcement:
Image shows South Korean enforced maritime border in blue and North Korea’s claimed maritime border in red.
North Korea argued Saturday that South Korean navy warships have increasingly violated their disputed western sea border, heightening tension on the Korean Peninsula.
“The South Korean puppet navy warships’ intrusion into the territorial waters of the DPRK side in the West Sea of Korea has recently been on explosive increase,” the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language report monitored in Seoul. DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.
The KCNA argued that 101 navy warships infiltrated the inter-Korean maritime border on 81 occasions in April, which is almost twofold tallied in March. [Korea Herald]
The Kim regime has never agreed to the Northern Limit Line established after the Korean War in the Yellow Sea. They have a different definition of the border which means from their point of view the ROK ships are intruding in their territory.
North Korea may calculate that launching a provocation in the Yellow Sea may not trigger a US military response and at the same time allow the Kim regime to show power and save face despite the massive pressure the regime is facing.
North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Saturday, which apparently exploded minutes after liftoff, according to South Korean and U.S. militaries.
“North Korea fired an unidentified missile from a site in the vicinity of Pukchang in Pyeongannam-do (South Pyeongan Province) in the northeastern direction at around 5:30 a.m today,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. “It is estimated to have failed.”
The U.S. Pacific Command also said it detected the launch from an airfield there.
“The missile did not leave North Korean territory,” its spokesman Cmdr. Dave Benham said. “The North American Aerospace Defense Command determined the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Considering the subdued reaction from the US military and government I think it is safe to say this was not an ICBM test which President Trump has voiced before would be a red line with North Korea. Here is what President Trump had to say in response to the failed launch:
North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!
Trump is definitely conducting the charm offensive with Chinese President Xi considering all the positive comments he has made about him and even rebuffed a phone call from the Taiwanese President this week.
Here is the latest on what President Trump has to say in regards to the North Korean nuclear issue:
US President Donald Trump has paid North Korean leader a Kim Jong-un a strange, back-handed compliment – while at the same time warned the two countries are on the verge of a “major, major conflict”.
In an interview, the US leader admitted some grudging respect for Kim, referring to when the North Korean became leader of his secretive country in 2011.
“He’s 27 years old,” said Trump. “His father dies, took over a regime. So say what you want but that is not easy, especially at that age,” he said.
“I’m not giving him credit or not giving him credit, I’m just saying that’s a very hard thing to do. As to whether or not he’s rational, I have no opinion on it. I hope he’s rational,” he said.
But that was as far as the praise went.
In a chilling warning that the world could be on the verge of a catastrophic war, Trump added: “There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely.
“We’d love to solve things diplomatically but it’s very difficult,” he said.
His warning came after the US in recent days pushed for North Korea not to carry out major new weapons tests.
The US has said it will talk directly with Kim to ensure North Korea got rid of any nuclear weapons. [Yahoo News]
Here is the stupidest article that I have read today that is example of the bias in the mainstream media against the Trump administration:
Trump ‘Armada’ Sent to Deter Kim Can’t Shoot Down His Missiles
The U.S. Navy flotilla sailing toward the Korean peninsula to deter Kim Jong Un’s regime lacks a key capability: It can’t shoot down ballistic missiles.
The USS Carl Vinson and the aircraft carrier’s accompanying destroyers and cruiser are expected to arrive in waters near the peninsula this week, carrying a full complement of weaponry, including scores of Tomahawk cruise and anti-ship missiles, radar-jamming aircraft and non-stealthy “Super Hornet” jets built by Boeing Co.
That firepower brings a lot to any fight, but the Navy’s lack of ballistic missile defense capability on the scene means the Trump administration’s high-profile show of force has a significant gap as it warns North Korea against another missile test and pressures it to back down from its nuclear program. [Bloomberg]
Does this writer, Anthony Capaccio really think the US Navy is stupid enough to put an aircraft carrier at risk of a North Korean ballistic missile strike without missile defense? The US Navy will defend the aircraft carrier and any other assets with an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) capability as needed. Where the carrier is at now off the coast of Okinawa does not warrant Aegis BMD protection.
The article then goes on to claim the Korean peninsula is at risk from ballistic missile attack as well:
While the Obama administration began the process of deploying Thaad, a high-altitude missile defense system, to the South Korean mainland, the hardware isn’t fully operational yet either. That leaves Seoul — just 35 miles (56 kilometers) south of the demilitarized zone — and the rest of the country more vulnerable to attack.
Obviously Mr. Capaccio does not know that both the US and the ROK militaries have Patriot missile batteries located across the peninsula. The THAAD battery was installed to add an advanced upper tier missile defense capability to compliment the already existing lower tier Patriot coverage.
It is pretty clear by the title of the article that Mr. Capaccio is trying to make President Trump look dumb by supposedly not having an Aegis BMD ship with the carrier. The media is now jumping on this meme with Newsweek publishing a similar headline of “USS Carl Vinson Cannot Shoot Down Missiles“. I wonder how many other media outlets will echo the same claim to where people who read just the headline begin to think it is true?
Professor John Delury from Yonsei University begins his opinion piece in the Washington Post by bringing up the old “Fireball Seoul™” scenario after any US strike on North Korea’s nuclear and missile program:
John Delury
President Trump’s missile strike on Syria won plaudits from commentators on the left and right, with some of the enthusiasm spilling over into the debate about a “military solution” when it comes to North Korea. The comparison, like much of the administration’s rhetoric about Korea, is dangerously misleading. There is no way to hit North Korea without being hit back harder. There is no military means to “preempt” its capabilities — nuclear and otherwise — with a “surgical” strike. Any use of force to degrade its weapons program would start a war, the costs of which would be staggering.
Maybe in the era of America First, we don’t care about death and destruction being visited on the 10 million people who live in Seoul, within North Korean artillery and short-range missile range.
First of all I am not advocating for a limited strike right now when there are other options still yet to be used. However, a limited strike like we saw in Syria that perhaps targets North Korea’s submarine base in Sinpo where they are developing submarine launched ballistic missiles in violation of United Nations resolution does not necessarily mean the Kim regime will destroy Seoul in response.
The first thing the Kim regime cares about is maintaining their power. Launching a massive artillery barrage on Seoul or destroying Incheon International Airport will cause a regime change war in response that they know they cannot win. The Fireball Seoul™ scenario only comes in to play if the Kim regime feels the intent of the strike is to remove the regime. There has been no talk of a strike to remove the regime, just talk of limit strikes against Kim’s nuclear and weapons programs.
Regardless here is what Professor Delury says the Trump administration should do:
Instead, the prudent move would be to open direct talks with Pyongyang that start by negotiating a freeze on the fissile-material production cycle, return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, and moratorium on testing nuclear devices and long-range ballistic missiles (including satellite launches). In return, the United States should at least entertain Pyongyang’s standing request for suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea. Kim may be willing to accept something less, such as an adjustment in scale. Or he may be open to a different kind of trade — initiating talks to convert the 1953 Armistice Agreement into a proper peace treaty to end the Korean War, for example. The only way to probe these options is to get to the table. With two months of large-scale exercises coming to a close, now is a good time to do so. [Washington Post]
You can read more at the link, but Professor Delury goes on to claim that Kim Jong-un ultimately wants economic development and actually calls him the “developmental dictator”. Unfortunately he provides no evidence to support this claim.
Anyway that is besides the point, the reason the Kim regime has been persistent about seeking a peace treaty with the US is because it would then call into question the continued existence of the US-ROK alliance. The North Koreans have tried for decades to drive a wedge between the ROK and the US and a peace treaty is one way they try and do this. It is the same rationale of why they try to get joint US-ROK military exercises cancelled, to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK.
The Kim regime knows that any chance of reunification on North Korean terms is dependent on separating the US from the ROK and ultimately the withdrawal of the US military from South Korea. Without the US military backing South Korea then Professor Delury’s Fireball Seoul™ scenario becomes much more real.
I could have just as easily titled this posting as being “Moon Jae-in Vows To Help North Korea Build Nuclear Weapons and Missiles” because that is what the Sunshine Policy allowed North Korea to do:
Moon Jae-in, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, holds a press conference at the National Assembly in Seoul on April 23, 2017, announcing a set of security and North Korean policies. (Yonhap)
Moon pledged that South Korea will play a bigger role in efforts to denuclearize the North and push for denuclearization based on simultaneous actions by stakeholders instead of demanding the North first show its resolve to give up atomic weapons.
The front-runner candidate said he will carry out former President Kim Dae-jung’s “Sunshine Policy” to engage with the North to ultimately persuade Pyongyang to change. [Yonhap]
I wonder what Moon means by simultaneous actions? Is that code for giving North Korea billions of dollars in aid for them to pretend they are not building nuclear weapons and missiles and then have them tear up the deal at a time of their choosing, launch provocations, and then demand a new deal? That is what historically the Sunshine Policy has been.
It appears for now the North Koreans are holding off on a nuclear test and instead held a military drill with 300-400 artillery pieces. It is pretty clear the signal the Kim regime is sending is that this artillery can obliterate Seoul if ordered to:
South Korea’s military said Tuesday that North Korea held major live-fire drills in an area around its eastern coastal town of Wonsan as it marked the anniversary of the founding of its military.
The exercise took place as a U.S. guided-missile submarine arrived in South Korea and envoys from the United States, Japan and South Korea met in Tokyo to discuss the growing threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles program.
Experts thought North Korea might conduct a nuclear test or a ballistic missile launch to mark the anniversary, but as of Tuesday evening neither had occurred.
Crowds in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, laid flowers and paid respects at giant statues of the country’s former leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, one day after the minister of defense reiterated that the North was ready to use pre-emptive strikes or any measures it deems necessary to defend itself against “U.S. imperialists.”
“The situation prevailing on the Korean Peninsula is so tense that a nuclear war may break out due to the frantic war drills of the U.S. imperialists and their vassal forces for aggression,” Gen. Pak Yong Sik told a meeting of thousands of senior military and civilian officials. [Associated Press]
Here is an interesting video I saw on Youtube the describes the day that North Korea attempted to shoot down the legendary SR-71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft. As you would expect they had little success:
