Tag: North Korea

The information war being fought inside North Korea by activists continues:

A group of North Korean defectors in South Korea on Saturday sent hundreds of thousands of anti-Pyongyang leaflets via helium balloons across the inter-Korean border in time for the 105th birth anniversary of the North’s late founder Kim Il Sung.

The Fighters for Free North Korea said its members sent some 300,000 leaflets from a mountain in Gimpo, just west of Seoul, starting at 5 a.m., condemning the North Korean regime and its role in the assassination of leader Kim Jong-un’s elder half brother, Kim Jong-nam, in February in Malaysia.

Besides the leaflets, the 10 gas-filled balloons also contained 2,000 one-dollar bills, 1,000 USB storage devices, 1,000 DVDs and 500 booklets, the group said.

Large placards attached to the balloons featured photos of Kim Jong-un and Kim Jong-nam, which were titled “murderer” and “dead person,” respectively.

The group said the leaflets contained all the details of the assassination of Kim Jong-nam which occurred at Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur International Airport on Feb. 13, as well as criticism of the Pyongyang regime.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read the rest at the link, but ROK Heads may remember that Park Sang-hak is the North Korean defector turned leader of the Fighters For A Free North Korea who the Kim regime has repeatedly threatened, sent their South Korean leftist lackeys to assault, and even tried to assassinate him a few years ago due to his balloon launch efforts.

Foreign policy adviser travelling with VP Pence said that if it had been a nuclear test, “other actions would have been taken by the US”.

— Bonnie Glaser / 葛来仪 (@BonnieGlaser) April 16, 2017

I would say probably the most significant thing about this failed launch is that the North Koreans do not believe President Trump will bomb them.  If they did, they would not have blatantly against UN resolutions have launched this missile right after President Trump put them on notice:

North Korea on Sunday attempted to launch an unidentified ballistic missile from its east coast, but it exploded right after lift-off, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

Pyongyang fired off the missile from a land-based launch facility in Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, at around 6:20 a.m., the JCS said, noting that it needed further analysis to determine the exact type of the missile and other details.

The botched missile launch came before U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrives in Seoul in the afternoon to highlight the robust alliance against the wayward regime’s escalating saber-rattling.

“The North attempted to launch a missile, but we presume that the launch ended in failure,” a JCS official said, declining to be named.

On April 5, Pyongyang fired off what was thought to be a KN-15 medium-range ballistic missile from the Sinpo area. It flew just 60 kilometers before falling into the East Sea.

Seoul officials said the missile launched Sunday could be the same type as the one fired earlier this month.

Some experts here say the failed launch might indicate the North has difficulty in developing solid-fuel engines for a new missile or the Scud-ER missile. Others say the launch could be part of its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development program.  [Yonhap]

You can read the rest at the link, but just because the missile failed does not mean the test was a total failure.  There may be important lessons learned from the failed test if they were able to collect the data to improve the design for future tests.  If they perfect their solid fuel missile design this would be a game changer for them since they could more quickly deploy and fire these missiles before US intelligence collection assets could detect them compared to their current missiles that require fueling and more time to prepare them for launch.

No one does a military parade quite like the North Koreans:

North Korea’s latest military hardware, including what analysts said appeared to be three kinds of intercontinental ballistic missiles, rolled through the North’s capital on Saturday, as the country showed off its military might amid heightened tensions with the United States.

As the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, watched from a platform, long columns of goose-stepping soldiers, accompanied by a fleet of tanks, missiles and rocket tubes, marched through a large plaza in the capital, Pyongyang, that was named after Mr. Kim’s grandfather Kim Il-sung, the country’s founding president.

Saturday was the 105th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth and the North’s most important holiday, called the Day of the Sun. The United States, China and other regional powers had feared that North Korea might mark the occasion by conducting its sixth nuclear test or by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile. The United States sent a naval strike group to the area in a show of force.

But no seismic tremor emanated on Saturday morning from the North’s nuclear test site, where recent satellite photographs have shown what appeared to be preparations for an underground detonation.

South Korean analysts said Mr. Kim seemed to have decided to celebrate his grandfather’s birthday not with a nuclear test or a missile launching, but with a military parade meant to demonstrate his missile capabilities to his American foes.

To military analysts scrutinizing North Korea’s broadcast of the parade, the most noteworthy element seemed to be three types of long-range ballistic missiles, one of them apparently new.  [New York Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but remember that these new ICBMs have not been tested and could be mock ups for all we know.  The signaling that the Kim regime appears to be doing is to show the US that they are developing solid fuel ICBMs.  Missiles with solid fuel means they can be fired quicker due to not needing to be fueled.  They did recently successfully test fire the Pukguksong-2 intermediate range missile which uses solid fuel which shows they are developing the capability.

Most significant was that the Kim regime did not conduct a nuclear test yet.  It will be interesting to see if in the coming days if they will attempt to conduct one.  If not this is an indication that the US show of force worked to stop their planned nuclear test.

For further reading I recommend going over to CNN where they have some good video of the missiles North Korea had on display.  The Diplomat as well has a good analysis of the parade that is worth reading.

There is a reason that Northeast Asia has been stable since the end of the Korean War after decades of conflict and that is the US military presence in the region.  Doug Bandow from the libertarian Cato Institute disagrees:

But that world disappeared long ago. The Korean Peninsula has lost its geopolitical significance, South Korea its helplessness, and America’s Korea commitment its purpose. While there is much to criticize in the approach of Donald Trump’s administration to the rest of the world, the president correctly sees the need for a foreign policy that more effectively protects America’s interests. A good place to start shifting course is the region home to the world’s newest and least responsible nuclear power.

The Koreas are no longer a proxy battleground between superpowers. There was a time when U.S. withdrawal from a confrontation with a Soviet ally in Asia would have, analysts believed, signaled weakness a continent away in Europe. But the Soviets are long gone and the cause for American commitment with them. An inter-Korean war would be tragic and the body count enormous, but absent American involvement the fighting would largely be confined to the peninsula. The continued presence of U.S. forces, by contrast, virtually guarantees the spread of conflict.

South Korea’s defense no longer requires Washington’s presence. The South’s economy began racing past its northern antagonist during the 1960s. Democracy arrived in the late 1980s. By the 1990s, when mass starvation stalked Pyongyang as Seoul’s economy boomed, the gap between the two Koreas was already huge and growing. The South’s military potential is correspondingly great though as yet unrealized — in part because dependence on the U.S. presence has affected strategic choices.  [Foreign Policy]

You can read the rest at the link as well as read my prior analysis of why USFK withdrawal will not happen any time soon at this link.

I find it hard to believe that this many people were evacuated from Pyongyang without the embassy personnel and few western journalists in North Korea noticing:

A Russian news outlet says the North Korean regime has decided to evacuate a large number of citizens out of capital Pyongyang due to fears of a war with the U.S.

According to the Pravda Report on Wednesday, some 600-thousand people, which is a quarter of Pyongyang’s total population, are subject to immediately leave the capital city. The order was given by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The report said this is because there are not enough bomb shelters in Pyongyang to accommodate the whole population. It noted the 600-thousand people are mostly individuals with criminal records and they will have to leave Pyongyang to let others use the bomb shelters.

The report cited experts as viewing the evacuation as most likely stemming from extremely strained tensions in relations with the United States.  [KBS World Radio]

You have to hand it to the Kim regime, if there is an illegal way to make money they will find it:

North Korean hackers stole about 100 million Korean won, or $88,000, worth of bitcoin from South Korean exchanges every month from 2013 to 2015, Yonhap News Agency reports, citing Radio Free Asia.

“Cyber criminals have turned to bitcoin for money as it is very difficult to track them down,” Choi Sang-myong, a senior official at South Korea’s cybersecurity firm Hauri, told Free Asia Radio, according to Yonhap. “Since tracking down the culprits is very difficult, North Korea had jumped on the bandwagon of bitcoin extortion since around 2012.”  [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link.

I guess we will soon find out, however the big question is going to be will President Trump do something in response?:

North Korea’s nuclear tests have grown steadily more destructive, and the country continues to pursue its longtime goal of putting a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental missile capable of reaching targets around the globe.

The United States recently ordered an aircraft carrier and other warships toward the Korean Peninsula in a show of force intended to discourage the North from testing a nuclear weapon.

While examining satellite imagery, experts have observed a wide range of activity at Mount Mantap, a mile-high peak where North Korea conducts its nuclear tests. Beneath the mountain, a system of tunnels has been excavated for the past five detonations of the North’s nuclear bombs.

If history is any indication the Chinese will double-deal the US on North Korea:

I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 13, 2017

A ROK Drop favorite, the reporter and author Andrew Salmon offers some perspective about claims of an imminent strike on North Korea:

Two weeks ago, I dined with a rather interesting visitor to Seoul. An ex-military officer, he assesses geopolitical risk for a global bank, and had been put in touch with your columnist by a mutual acquaintance. We compared notes on various peninsula-related matters.

He told me that several multinational banks and companies were quietly dusting off and reviewing plans to evacuate expatriates from South Korea in the event of a crisis. This raised my eyebrows. I live at ground zero ― central Seoul ― but had sensed no unusual tension.

These concerns, the gentleman explained, stem not from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ― a largely predictable quantity ― but from neophyte US President Donald Trump. Some fear that the mercurial POTUS is mulling military action against the North ― fears buttressed by his secretary of state’s comments that “all options” are on the table.

Our dinner took place prior to Trump’s warning that the U.S. would deal with North Korea independently of China, and before the U.S. Navy devastated a Syrian air base with a cruise missile barrage.

Since then, doom merchants have gone ballistic and media pundits are suffering from a near-terminal attack of the vapors.

“Trump wants war to divert attention from domestic failings!” quaver some. “The Syrian strike is a work-up for a North Korea operation!” simper others. “If Trump hits North Korea, Kim will invade South Korea, and/or retaliate with nukes!” gasp yet others. Even my mother (!) called from the UK to warn me.

Let’s calm down, man up and take account.  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but basically Salmon discusses that what is new here is the Trump factor; everything else has happened before with out a war starting.  However, if a strike does happen North Korea’s reaction will likely be less than expected because if they to too far it could lead to regime change.