Tag: North Korea

I am sure the irony is not lost on the Kim regime that they are bashing the Japanese Navy for an arms build up when it simply tested an SM-3 missile used for missile defense of their country.  An SM-3 missile is not used for offensive operations against North Korea:

North Korea on Saturday blasted Japan for trying to create tension on the Korean Peninsula, while also accusing the country of trying to rebuild its military.

“The maritime ‘Self-Defense Force’ (MSDF) of Japan recently conducted a test-fire of the interceptor missile SM-3 Block 1B on an Aegis destroyer in waters off Hawaii of the U.S. It is reportedly the first time that the MSDF conducted an interceptor missile test-fire,” the Rodong Sinmun, a newspaper published by the North’s Workers’ Party, reported.

In a commentary carried by the North’s Korean Central News Agency, the newspaper insisted Japan was trying to build a military capable of waging war against others.

“The present reactionary regime of Japan seeks to put the Asia-Pacific region under control by turning Japan into a country capable of going to war,” it said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

How about the Kim regime takes steps towards real denuclearization instead of “pretend denuclearization” first:

North Korea’s foreign minister said Saturday that his country won’t dismantle its nuclear weapons program first without seeing corresponding measures from the United States.

Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Ri Yong-ho said his country’s commitment to denuclearization is firm but that it needs to see trust-building measures from the U.S.

“Without any trust in the U.S., there will be no confidence in our national security, and under such circumstances, there is no way we will unilaterally disarm ourselves first,” the minister said.

The North has taken “goodwill measures” by stopping its ballistic missile tests and dismantling a nuclear test site, among other things, Ri said. The U.S., on the other hand, has increased sanctions on the North and rejected Pyongyang’s calls for a declaration to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, he claimed.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans are continuing their line of attack of getting sanctions dropped for little to nothing in return.  They have yet to commit themselves to any real denuclearization.  They have stopped testing which can restart at anytime they have shuttered facilities that either no longer needed or easily rebuilt.  When nuclear material is flown out of the country and international inspectors are supervising the decommissioning of the Yongbyon nuclear plant then we know they are serious about denuclearization.

B.R. Myers does relatively few radio interviews, so it was a pleasure to speak with him at length this week while I hosted a KBS radio program. #korea #dprk https://t.co/1B4JTqL1Us

— Kurt Achin (@KurtAchin) September 26, 2018

It looks like the Moon administration continues to work around the sanctions on the North Koreans:

South Korea will seek to launch joint on-site inspections of cross-border railways with North Korea next month as part of efforts to reconnect the railways, as called for in last week’s inter-Korean summit agreement, the presidential spokesman said Friday.

The decision was made at a meeting of the committee formed to discuss measures to carry out the Pyongyang Declaration reached in the third summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang last week.

The agreement calls for breaking ground before the end of the year toward reconnecting two sets of cross-border roads and railways. One of them, called the Seohae Line, runs through the western section of the border and the other, called the Donghae Line, runs through the eastern section. [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I wonder if the United Nations Command has blessed off on this yet?  Despite all the concessions the Moon administration has made to the Kim regime, I have yet to read or see any report that the North Koreans have removed one piece of artillery or troop formation away from the DMZ.

I think it is arguable that USFK’s part in the US’s overall North Korea strategy is to do everything possible to not be the ones’ to blame if the current peace process falls apart because North Korea does not denuclearize.  The Kim regime would need an excuse for reneging on giving up their nukes and claiming that USFK is training to destroy them is a good excuse.  With that said they can just claim the US military presence in South Korea is enough to justify keeping their nukes as well:

Robert B. Abrams, a four-star US Army general who is nominated to become the next US Forces Korea (USFK) commander, stated that the suspension of joint military exercises between the US and South Korea has undermined combat readiness, and that an “atmosphere of detente” is being created on the Korean Peninsula.During a hearing to vet him for his new position at the Senate Armed Service Committee on Sept. 25, Abrams talked about the suspension of the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian joint military exercises in the wake of the US-North Korea summit meeting on June 12. According to an AFP report, he said “I think the suspension of the exercise this past August and September, I would say was a prudent risk if we’re willing to make the effort to change the relationship with [North Korea].”  [Hankyoreh]

You can read more at the link.

Personally I will believe a dawn of a new day has begun when North Korea’s nuclear material is being shipped out of the country.  I really do hope that happens, but I remain skeptical:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday hailed the “dawn of a new day” with North Korea as the U.S. pushes diplomacy to denuclearize the regime.

Chairing a meeting of the United Nations Security Council in New York, Pompeo sounded a hopeful note on the diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang.

But he also called for strict enforcement of all U.N. Security Council sanctions on Pyongyang until denuclearization is achieved.

“Past diplomatic attempts to halt North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile development were unsuccessful,” Pompeo said. “But now we’re at the dawn of a new day.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but despite all the flowery language, Secretary Pompeo is continuing to emphasize keeping the sanctions in place on the Kim regime.

Kim Song, North Korea’s new top envoy to the United Nations, is seen at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Sept. 20, 2018. Kim presented his credentials to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the day. (Yonhap)

Moon has been deputized by Kim to extort Lee to give Kim. Confusing? Put differently: The tyrant has cajoled the president, an elected leader, to coerce his nation's richest man to pay up to the tyrant. https://t.co/Kx3MSYnCOi

— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) September 20, 2018

President Moon is continuing to advocate for everyone to believe in Kim Jong-un:

President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday that the United States has nothing to lose from its denuclearization talks with North Korea, as it could resume sanctions or reverse a declaration ending the Korean War if Pyongyang reneges on its pledge to denuclearize.

Moon stressed that U.S. concessions to North Korea could be reversed if Pyongyang was caught cheating on its denuclearization pledge during an interview with Fox News during his five-day visit to New York for the UN General Assembly.

“One thing stands clear,” the president said. “South Korea and the U.S. have nothing to lose from denuclearization talks [with the North]. Measures that the North is required to take are abandon already-made nuclear stockpiles; dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility; and close down nuclear testing and missile testing sites.”

These steps were equivalent to “irreversible measures,” and the North’s demands of the United States could easily be reversed if Pyongyang doesn’t follow through with its denuclearization promises, Moon argued.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

Here is what he had to say about USFK:

Moon also dismissed concerns that an end to the war could change the status of U.S. troops in South Korea and the UN Command.
“An end-of-war declaration is a political statement en route to signing a peace treaty. Until the peace treaty is signed, an armistice will be maintained,” he stressed.

Moon stressed that the issue of U.S. troops in the South had to do with the U.S.-Korea alliance, not ending the war or signing a peace treaty.

“North Korean leader Kim also agrees with this concept [of the U.S. forces in South Korea],” he said.

For the status of USFK, of course both Moon and Kim are of course going to say there will be no change.  I believe that President Moon is too smart to advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

With the end of the US-ROK alliance Moon and Kim can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on North Korean terms.

As far as denuclearization, I have been saying repeatedly, if the Kim regime wants people to see that it is serious about denuclearization then begin shipping nuclear material out of the country.  Instead the regime and President Moon want sanctions dropped for North Korea so far doing little to nothing in return.

Once sanctions are dropped it will be extremely difficult to get an international consensus to reimplement sanction if they are not denuclearizing, but at the same time behaving.  These countries will know that if they reimplement sanctions then missile and nuclear tests and other provocations will restart, so best just to leave North Korea alone.  This then allows the Kim regime to keep their nukes and have sanctions dropped.  We have been down this road before and it keeps ending at the same point and President Moon wants everyone to think the destination will be different this time.

President Moon wants everyone to believe that the Kim regime really means it this time to denuclearize:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in pushed back Tuesday against widespread skepticism about the sincerity of Kim Jong Un’s vows to give up his nuclear bombs, saying that the current round of diplomacy with North Korea is ”completely different” than the many failed deals that have frustrated past negotiators.

Moon, fresh off a dramatic summit in Pyongyang last week with Kim that saw more promises from the North Korean leader to dismantle his weapons programs, is at the U.N. General Assembly this week, meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders to explain and, to some extent, defend his efforts to bring peace to the famously hostile Korean Peninsula.

He told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in New York that it was ”only natural that we have plenty of suspicions regarding the true motivations” of Kim. It was, after all, only last year that a series of increasingly powerful North Korean weapons tests, including the nation’s sixth nuclear test explosion, and the tough reaction by Trump had many worrying about war. Some critics believe that tough sanctions and pressure, rather than engagement and concessions, stand a better chance of ridding the North of its nukes.

”It’s completely different this time around,” Moon said, speaking through an interpreter. What’s changed this time is that, unlike past efforts that collapsed when the countries tried to implement deals that had been made at the working level, this one has Trump and Kim making the decisions and then driving their lieutenants to follow through.

”This was a promise made in front of the whole world” by Trump and Kim, Moon said. ”For this reason, I believe the promise will be kept.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but if Kim Jong-un wants people to think he is serious about denuclearization he can start shipping out nuclear material from his country.  The concessions they have made so far are all easily reversible that he wants sanctions dropped and a peace treaty signed in return for.

Shipping nuclear material out of the country cannot be reversed and worthy of bigger concessions from the US.  Until the Kim regime starts doing that people are going to rightfully remain skeptical about his intentions.  As I have long been saying, the Kim regime wants “pretend denuclearization” which many people in the academic class, political class, and US adversaries want as well.