Tag: North Korea

Here are the thoughts from retired U.S. Army Colonel David Maxwell on a recent article in the National Interest about ex-National Security Advisor John Bolton:

Regardless of what you think about Ambassador Bolton I find it incredible that he actually “wants” war with north Korea (or with any country).  We should not confuse the call for ensuring all military options are on the table with “wanting” to go to war.  We need all military options on the table as the best way to support deterrence.But we need to beware of the press, pundits, and politicians who want to revert to “appeasing” north Korea (yes some talk about an arms control process or an action for action process or the relief of sanctions in return for a promise to conduct negotiations).

All use the same flawed assumption that Ambassador Bolton took to task yesterday regarding Kim’s sincerity to actually denuclearize. Ambassador Bolton can be criticized for much and may be wrong in many areas but he is not wrong when he says this: under current circumstances Kim Jong-un will not give up his nuclear weapons program.

David Maxwell

To Moon Chung-in, North Korea's threats to the country that has guaranteed South Korea's security for 70 years, UN & US sanctions designed to check those threats, & South Korea's eagerness to violate those sanctions are all America's fault. Nothing is ever Kim Jong-un's fault. https://t.co/OcAxuN38yX

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 24, 2019

Kim Jong-un may be deploying a new submarine:

North Korea is building a new structure to launch submarines at the Sinpo shipyard, presumably for a new sub capable of carrying ballistic missiles.

State media unveiled the new 3,000-ton sub on July 23, when they reported that leader Kim Jong-un visited the shipyard.

The Middlebury Institute of International Studies, a U.S. think tank, and satellite operator Planet Labs spotted the launch structure on recent satellite images of the shipyard, according to NHK Friday. 

Images from Sept. 3 show at least 13 pillar-like objects standing along a quay, with some vehicles moving around. 

On Sept. 12, a large structure straddled the quay and water. And images from Sept. 19 show the structure covering almost the entire quay.

“The structure is now about 100 m long, which is much longer than what is used to build North Korea’s conventional submarines,” NHK said.

Once the sub is launched, the North could have the capability to clandestinely launch ballistic missiles from submarines at the U.S. mainland,.

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Well I guess if you can’t get North Korea to denuclearize you can just change the definition to make it look like they are denuclearizing:

The United States and North Korea are in talks to agree on a “mutually-acceptable” definition for “denuclearization,” South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said Monday (KST) in a briefing at the Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel. 

“Since the breakdown in Hanoi, yes, there has been a lot of discussion between Washington and Pyongyang over the issue of the desired end state for denuclearization, and the clarification of actual denuclearization. Lots of interpretations have been used regarding denuclearization as there are different definitions. The upcoming working-level discussions between Washington and Pyongyang will look into that issue, seriously and thoroughly, to gain a clear concept of the term,” the foreign minister said responding to a question from The Korea Times.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but this is all leading to what I call “pretend denuclearization“.

President Moon is heading to the U.S. for what is believed to be a summit with President Trump that will lead to revived talks with North Korea:

President Moon Jae-in flew to New York, Sunday, to attend this year’s United Nations General Assembly amid renewed hopes for a restart of dialogue aimed at ending Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

Cheong Wa Dae said the President planned to use his visit to the U.N. to highlight South Korea’s efforts to bring lasting peace to the Korean Peninsula. More importantly, Moon is widely expected to suggest to the international community that a step-by-step approach be taken toward denuclearizing the North. Moon arrived at JFK International Airport, Monday morning (KST). 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but whenever you hear the term, “step-by-step approach” this means “pretend denuclearization“.

Here is the latest on the possible restart of talks with North Korea:

Earlier Wednesday, Bolton told a private lunch group that any negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang are “doomed to failure,” U.S. media reported. Bolton said the lifting of sanctions is North Korea’s only goal. 

In response, Trump stressed that his administration has successfully stopped North Korean nuclear tests and that he has a good relationship with its leader. 

“So I think that’s better than somebody that goes around saying we want to use the Libyan model,” Trump said. “He said the ‘Libyan model.’ That set us back very badly when he said that. So I think John really should take a look at how badly they’ve done in the past, and maybe a new method would be very good.”

Kim Myong-gil, a former North Korean ambassador to Vietnam, in a statement carried by Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency Friday “welcomed” President Trump’s “wise political determination” calling for a new method of negotiations. 

Kim, now confirmed as the North’s counterpart to U.S. top nuclear envoy Stephen Biegun, lauded Trump’s criticism of the Libyan model and said he wants to be “optimistic” about the results of North-U.S. negotiations expected to “take place soon.”

North Korea said Monday it wants to meet with the United States in late September, but no meeting has been set. Urging the United States to come up with a “new calculation method,” the North has demanded that economic sanctions be lifted and security guarantees for its regime be offered. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but my reading of the tea leaves is that a deal of some kind will be worked out with North Korea. I think President Trump realizes they are not giving up their nukes and it appears a “pretend denuclearization” deal may be what is ultimately worked out.

It is very easy to imagine North Korea using a drone attack against an infrastructure target in South Korea as part of a provocation strategy and then deny they did it. Remember this is the same country that torpedoed a ROK naval ship killing dozens of sailors, then denied they did it and still had people in South Korea making excuses for them:

The devastating drone attack on a Saudi oil field by Yemeni rebels has raised concerns that vital South Korean installations could be similarly vulnerable to attack drones from North Korea. 

Some pundits believe North Korea has steadily improved its drone capabilities since leader Kim Jong-un took power, although so far only a few crashed unmanned aerial vehicles used for surveillance were found here.

But at recent military parades, the North has unveiled ostensibly self-destructing UAVs and, once armed, could potentially aim them at Cheong Wa Dae, Army headquarters and other key military installations.

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but considering how far they have flown drones before into South Korea the ability to successfully conduct such an attack is there.

Via a reader tip comes news that the Russians are holding 80 North Koreans for illegal fishing in Russian waters:

Russia says the ships were engaged in illegal fishing off its coast, and that one of the vessels launched an “armed attack”. 

Three Russian border guards were reportedly wounded in a clash.

North Korea has yet to comment on the incident, but Russia’s Foreign Ministry has expressed “serious concern” and summoned the country’s top diplomat.

A spokesperson for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) said the two schooners were accompanied by 11 motorboats and were spotted poaching near the Yamato Bank, which lies between the Korean Peninsula, Russia and Japan.

Russia says they were caught in its Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 nautical miles (370km) from its coast.

MSN

It will be interesting to see if President Trump takes Kim Jong-un up on his offer to visit Pyongyang. I can only see this happening if a significant deal is reached. I don’t think he would want to fly to Pyongyang and have a summit lead to no results like what happened in Hanoi:

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said Monday that she had been briefed by the United States about a personal letter sent by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to U.S. President Donald Trump inviting him for a third summit to be held in Pyongyang.

“I was recently told in detail from the U.S. about the existence of the letter,” she told lawmakers during a meeting at the National Assembly.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.