Tag: North Korea

Tweet of the Day: $8 Million Transfer Despite Provocation

| July 29, 2019

The Significance of North Korea’s Testing of the Iskander (KN-23) Ballistic Missile

| July 25, 2019

Here is the latest provocation from North Korea:

A suspected short-range missile is launched from Kusong, North Pyongan Province, in northwestern North Korea, on May 9, 2019, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency.

North Korea on Thursday fired two new short-range ballistic missiles, Seoul officials said, in an apparent move to put pressure on the United States ahead of possible nuclear talks between the two sides.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that Pyongyang fired one missile toward the East Sea at around 5:34 a.m. and the other at 5:57 a.m. from Hodo Peninsula near its eastern coastal town of Wonsan. They flew around 430 kilometers and 690 km, respectively, both at an altitude of around 50 km. 

The test came 77 days after Pyongyang’s short-range missile launch in early May. (……..)

Experts have said Thursday’s launches appear to have involved the North’s version of Russia’s Iskander, a short-range, ground-to-ground ballistic missile known as KN-23, as it test-fired in May.

Yonhap

What is significant about the Iskander is that it is a solid fuel missile. What this means is that unlike a liquid fuel missile it does not need to be fueled before launching. The act of fueling missiles takes time and could be observed while a solid fuel missile can be simply rolled out and fired.

What About THAAD?

The Iskander also has a lower flight trajectory which gives it a shorter time of flight which reduces decision making time. In the article they claim the Iskander makes the THAAD system ineffective. The article fails to mention there are different missile defense systems for different threats. For lower flying trajectories that is what the Patriot missile batteries located around South Korea are for.

THAAD was never meant to be a magic bullet that engages all threats on the peninsula. THAAD engages targets at higher altitudes than Patriot. One of the main reasons it was deployed was because of the threat of lofted trajectory missiles that North Korea was testing.

Additionally, by using a lofted flight trajectory, North Korea could use medium-range and intermediate-range missiles to strike South Korean targets over shorter distances by firing them at higher angles. For example, on June 22, 2016, North Korea was able to limit the distance of the intermediate-range Musudan missile to around 400 kilometers (from a normal distance of more than 3,000 kilometers) by using this lofting method. In this scenario, the warhead is traveling at a high velocity by the end of its trajectory, thereby undermining the effectiveness of the Patriot missile system.

Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy

Now the North Koreans are testing a lower flying system that Patriot can engage, but once again it is not the flight profile that is of the most concern, it is the solid fuel capability that allows them rapidly fire these missiles with little early warning.

Why Test Now?

So why did the North Koreans fire this missile now? First of all the yet to be named joint US-ROK exercise is still scheduled to be executed next month. The exercise gives the Kim regime cover to conduct this test to further prove its capability. Additionally this keeps pressure on the Trump administration to give-in to North Korean demands to lift some of the sanctions in return for a freeze on missile testing.

Kim Jong-un has always said that he is waiting until the end of the year for a deal to be reached. If a deal is not reached he could restart ICBM testing. He is giving the Trump administration a preview of what he could start doing right in the middle of President Trump’s re-election campaign next year if a deal is not struck.

Kim Jong-un Tours Construction Site of Massive New Submarine

| July 24, 2019

Just imagine how much more quickly the Kim regime can field this new submarine if they are a wash in South Korean cash from reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the Kumgang Tours:

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits a submarine factory in an undisclosed location, North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a large newly built submarine, state news agency KCNA reported on Tuesday, potentially signaling continued development of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program.

Kim inspected the operational and tactical data and combat weapon systems of the submarine that was built under “his special attention,” and will be operational in the waters off the east coast, KCNA said.

KCNA said the submarine’s operational deployment was near.

“The operational capacity of a submarine is an important component in national defense of our country bounded on its east and west by sea,” Kim said.

KCNA did not describe the submarine’s weapon systems or say where and when the inspection took place.

North Korea has a large submarine fleet but only one known experimental submarine capable of carrying a ballistic missile.

Analysts said that based on the apparent size of the new submarine it appears designed to eventually carry missiles.

“We can clearly see that it is a massive submarine – much larger than the existing one that’s been well known since 2014,” said Ankit Panda, senior fellow at the U.S.-based Federation of American Scientists.

“What I find significant about the political messaging here is that this is the first time since a February 2018 military parade that he has inspected a military system clearly designed to carry and deliver nuclear weapons.”

Reuters

You can read more at the link, but here is just another example of the international community giving millions of dollars in food aid to a country that is building a completely unnecessary submarine to deliver nuclear weapons instead of feeding its own people.

Tweet of the Day: How South Korea Helps Violate Sanctions on North Korea

| July 19, 2019

Tweet of the Day: Small Deal On Its Way?

| July 18, 2019

North Korea Bashes Japan for Export Restrictions on South Korea

| July 17, 2019

The Kim regime was not going to miss a chance to bash Japan:

North Korean media outlets are strongly criticizing Japan amid growing confrontation between Seoul and Tokyo over Japan’s trade restrictions. 

Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the North Korean ruling party, on Wednesday portrayed the Japan’s exports curbs on South Korea as retaliatory measures over the South Korean top court’s decisions on Japan’s forced wartime labor and accused Tokyo of seeking to realize its imperial purposes. 

The paper also asserted that Japan has shown no repentance over its “sinful deeds” in the past and warned the North will not just sit and watch Japan trample the Korean people’s interests. 

KBS World Radio

You can read more at the link, but notice how North Korea bashes Japan for its export restrictions on South Korea as being against the “Korean people’s interests”. This demonstrates how North Korea views South Korean citizens as part of their own population.

Tweet of the Day: Yusang-ni Missile Base

| July 16, 2019

Picture of the Day: Ghost Boat

| July 16, 2019
N. Korean boats
N. Korean boatsThis photo, provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) on July 15, 2019, shows one of three unmanned wooden North Korean boats that were found in eastern South Korean territorial waters on July 13. (Yonhap)

Would North Korea Allow Unannounced International Inspections of Its Nuclear Weapons?

| July 15, 2019

Retired Admiral James Stavridis has an opinion piece published in Bloomberg on how he believes North Korea’s denuclearization should be pursued:

While the ultimate shape of what might be termed “denuclearization lite” remains unclear, one can envision the general outline. For starters, the U.S. would likely demand a full, verifiable accounting of North Korea’s active nuclear and missile programs, with specific geographic positions identified. The U.S. could also push for a reduction in the total stockpile to a number that international inspectors could keep under permanent observation, say 50 warheads of a specified level of kilotons each. The warheads would be held in a small number of locations, three or so, each with a technical oversight system (cameras, electronic monitors) to alert inspectors if the facilities were breached. There could be a similar plan for the launcher systems, but they would be based different parts of the country than the warheads. All of this would be verified by international teams, which would have a mandate to inspect the facilities at any time.

In exchange, the North would receive sanctions relief and a large amount of development aid, although perhaps not of the kind Trump famously proposed for North Korea’s beaches in his first meeting with Kim: “Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?”

Bloomberg

You can read more at the link, but the international community could not get proper inspections of North Korean food aid, what makes anyone think the Kim regime will allow unannounced inspections of their nuclear weapons?

We have seen this movie before. It appears that North Korea is heading towards another deal where some sanctions are dropped in return for mostly future promises from the Kim regime to denuclearize. They will behave for a while and then once their cash reserves are restocked they will break the deal at a time of their choosing and blame the U.S. for its breakdown. Another provocation cycle will begin with more calls for talks and eventually another deal will be reached.

All the journalists and think tank types can then recycle all their old articles and opinion pieces. The only wild card with this issue is President Trump. Is he willing to watch this same old movie play out?

Tweet of the Day: North Korea Does Not Need Nukes for Deterrence

| July 14, 2019