Tag: North Korea

Here is what one anonymous source is claiming:

North Korea has reasons to keep up nuclear talks with the United States, but it may consider their timing based on its assessment of the political fortunes of U.S. President Donald Trump, who faces an impeachment trial, a source said Thursday.

Though the Senate trial is expected to result in Trump’s acquittal on charges of obstruction of congress and abuse of power, the North could wait until the political footing of the Trump administration becomes firmer, the source said on condition of anonymity.

Pyongyang has been concerned that the submission of a list of its nuclear weapons, materials and related sites — a key denuclearization step demanded by the U.S. — could be tantamount to making them potential targets for attack absent clear security assurances.

Taking such a step when the fate of the incumbent U.S. government remains uncertain would be a key concern for the communist regime, a reason why it may now be “taking a breather,” the source pointed out.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I guess we will see if North Korea follows through with its Christmas gift threat:

Few signs of unusual military moves have been detected in North Korea so far, officials said Tuesday, amid concern Pyongyang could test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as a “Christmas gift” to the United States.

Officials noted, however, that the North could undertake a surprise provocation at any time and that the South’s military is maintaining readiness for a worst-case scenario while keeping a close watch over the communist neighbor.

“There have not been specific moves in the North as of now that indicate high-profile military actions,” a military officer said. “We have been fully prepared for any incidents, and we always keep in mind a worst-case scenario.”

As denuclearization negotiations with the U.S. have made little progress, North Korea warned that it is entirely up to the U.S. to decide what Christmas gift it gets, sparking concerns that Pyongyang could carry out highly provocative acts such as an ICBM launch.

When firing its Hwasong-14 ICBM on July 4, 2017, the North labeled it as “a gift” for the U.S.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Here is yet another step in North Korea’s pressure campaign to get sanctions dropped for little to nothing in return:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presided over an enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and discussed “important organizational and political measures and military steps to bolster up” the armed forces, state media said Sunday.

The meeting was held amid heightened tensions with the United States with Pyongyang threatening to seek a “new way” unless Washington comes up with a acceptable proposal in their nuclear negotiations by end of the year.

“Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un gave analysis and briefing on the complicated internal and external situation and said that the meeting would decide on important organizational and political measures and military steps to bolster up the overall armed forces of the country,” the Korean Central News Agency said.

“Also discussed were important issues for decisive improvement of the overall national defence and core matters for the sustained and accelerated development of military capability for self-defence,” it added.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The Atlantic has an article they recently published criticizing President Trump for his North Korea policy:

Pronouncing the diplomacy dead would be premature. There’s a chance that the North Koreans are simply trying to pressure Trump into making a deal on their terms as he faces reelection. Nevertheless, it’s a remarkable comedown for the Trump administration’s signature initiative to address what it has billed as the country’s top security threat. This is the policy in which the president has invested the most time and resources, the one that he has touted as his greatest success and made a model (maximum pressure + personal engagement by the president = wins for America) in his dealings everywhere from China to Iran. What’s at stake, though, isn’t just Trump’s legacy in foreign affairs or the Nobel Peace Prize he so clearly desires. Also at the mercy of what comes next are global efforts to stop the spread of the world’s most destructive weapons and potentially one of the last opportunities to reconcile North and South Korea after 70 years of alienation.

The Atlantic

You can read the whole thing at the link, but as I have been saying for years, the North Koreans are never going to denuclearize. The best the U.S. can hope for is the “Pretend Denuclearization” deal that Pyongyang has been pushing for. The Trump administration has resisted this which has predictably led to where we are at today. Pyongyang will create a “crisis” in the lead up to the U.S. presidential election, the media will breathlessly report on the “crisis”, and publications like the The Atlantic will write opinion pieces like this on how Trump’s policies have failed.

This is North Korea’s version of a pressure campaign to get what it wants which is the “Pretend Denuclearization” deal. This leaves the President with the choice of signing a “Pretend Denuclearization” deal that his critics will then claim he gave into North Korean pressure in return for a bad deal. The other option is to put pressure back on Pyongyang both diplomatically, economically, and militarily like back in 2017 that could lead to potential miscalculations.

I guess we will see what happens, but neither option will lead to the Kim regime denuclearizing.

Here is what one Korean think tank thinks will not happen this New Year:

North Korea is unlikely to test-fire a long-range missile as widely feared because the move would leave Pyongyang without many options and could force the United States to switch to a hard-line approach to the communist nation, a state-run think tank said Wednesday.

The assessment by the Korea Institute for National Unification came amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, with the North warning of an unwanted “Christmas gift” to the United States in case Washington fails to come up with a new proposal by year’s end.

Amid speculation over a possible intercontinental ballistic missile launch (ICBM) as the unwelcome gift, Hong Min, a research fellow at the institute, said Pyongyang would refrain from test-firing a mid or long-range missile this year.

An ICBM launch would “greatly reduce” the options that the North could take and “put the United States in a situation where it cannot help but switch to a hard-line side,” the expert said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but if the North Koreans do conduct a near time rocket launch I believe they will not call it an ICBM test, but instead a space launch. They will claim every nation has the right to the peaceful use of space. Additionally this gives the Chinese and Russians diplomatic cover to block any additional sanctions at the United Nations.

As I expected, it appears the Chinese want the North Koreans to start a provocation cycle in hopes of politically damaging the Trump administration:

Stephen Biegun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, apparently failed to meet with North Korean officials during his visit to Beijing Friday and was expected to depart for home yesterday night.

Biegun touched down in Beijing Thursday for a two-day trip, and there was speculation he may meet North Korean officials there amid stalled denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang. But Yonhap reported that Biegun appeared not to have met anyone from the North.

Neither Beijing nor Washington made any official announcement on Biegun’s Chinese visit as of 8 p.m. press time Friday, but Biegun is known to have stressed to Chinese officials that it was crucial to keep maximum pressure on the Pyongyang regime and asked for help in bringing the North back to the dialogue table.

While Biegun was visiting China, the U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly to confirm him as deputy secretary of state on Thursday, and with that, he became the second-highest individual in the State Department after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Mr. Biegun obviously understands the only one with enough leverage to get North Korea back to the negotiating table is China. Good luck with that:

U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun is set to ask senior Chinese government officials for China’s help to restart the stalled denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang, a senior ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) lawmaker said.

“Biegun used his high-profile meetings with senior Seoul officials as an opportunity to highlight U.S. readiness to apply quite flexible and inventive ways to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. He is likely to convey these ideas he discussed with South Korean officials to Chinese officials. Simply, Biegun would ask China for Beijing’s help to resume the denuclearization talks,” the lawmaker who is involved with the matter told The Korea Times, Wednesday.

The State Department announced the U.S. envoy for the North will visit Beijing on Thursday and Friday after China and Russia proposed lifting some United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on the North. The department said Biegun will discuss “the need to maintain international unity on North Korea” when he meets with Chinese officials.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but it seems North Korean provocations is actually in China’s interest and probably encouraging the upcoming provocation cycle.