Tag: North Korea

It will be interesting to see if the Trump administration responds to President Moon’s advocacy for South Korea to break international sanctions on the North:

President Moon Jae-in stressed the need Tuesday to expand inter-Korean cooperation, saying it could be conducive to drumming up international support for sanctions relief for the communist neighbor.

Speaking at his New Year’s press conference, he made it clear that South Korea will not sit idle waiting for Pyongyang-Washington dialogue to bear fruit.

“If (we) broaden cooperative ties between South and North to the maximum, it would not only facilitate North Korea-U.S. dialogue but also help win international support in connection with some exemptions or exceptions to sanctions on North Korea,” the president said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the term “inter-Korean cooperation” is code for restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and Gumgang Resort tours which were both cash cows for the Kim regime. Essentially what President Moon is advocating for is continuing to fund the North Korean military machine with no reciprocal denuclearization agreement in place. Agreements like this is what allowed North Korea to become a nuclear menace in the first place and Moon wants double down on this policy.

What is the point of negotiations if the U.S. is supposed to give in to all of Pyongyang’s demands before the so called negotiations:

Former North Korean chief nuclear envoy Kim Kye-gwan said Saturday that dialogue with the United States can resume only when it fully accepts Pyongyang’s demands.

Kim, currently foreign ministry adviser, also stressed the North would never engage in a negotiation to exchange its core nuclear facility for partial sanctions relief as it did in the no-deal Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in February last year.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

There is a lot of analysis going on right now in regards to what the Iranian missile strike will lead to:

Iran responded to the United States’ killing of its top military official, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by firing over a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military facilities in Iraq Tuesday night.

The move is likely to stoke fear of a war between the U.S. and Iran, but retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and ABC News military analyst, said that what happens next will really depend on the damage incurred by the missiles, which were fired at the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.

“It depends on what they hit. If they hit nothing, then the situation may de-escalate. If they hit something substantial and if they hurt Americans, then they can expect this will lead to a significant U.S. retaliation,” said Ganyard.

ABC News

It is being reported that the missile strike did not hurt any Americans which leads me to conclude that the attack was carefully planned to try and not hurt anyone. If the Iranians gave a lot of indications and warnings of an impending attack this would give the people at each location time to shelter in hardened structures. Additionally if the strikes hit on the perimeter of the bases that would reduce the risk of casualties as well.

I believe the Iranians calculated that if they killed any Americans President Trump would have to respond forcefully. Now with little damage to show for the missile attack it gives the U.S. President reason to not respond forcibly while allowing the Iranians to save face. Ironically this missile attack is likely a deescalation attempt by the Iranians.

However, what I am most interested in is what will the North Koreans learn from this missile attack? I have always believed that if a pre-emptive strike was taken against North Korea’s nuclear or missile related facilities the Kim regime would respond with ballistic missile strikes against U.S. military bases in South Korea. If President Trump does not respond strongly to the Iranian missile attack, this could signal to the Kim regime that such a strategy could be feasible as long as Americans are not killed.

That would be a difficult feat to pull off considering how densely populated South Korea is around U.S. military bases compared to the two bases in Iraq. However, if a U.S. airstrike killed North Korean soldiers or civilians they could justify the killing of U.S. military servicemembers in such a retaliatory strike.

Unlike the two bases in Iraq, U.S. military bases in South Korea do have missile defense battery’s to protect them. This will help mitigate any attack, but no missile defense is 100% effective if North Korea is committed to massing fires on one location.

As far ROK nationals killed or injured I think the Kim regime cares less about because they don’t feel the Blue House would push for forceful retaliation and they could just blame the death of the ROK nationals on the U.S. for conducting the pre-emptive strike. The Korean left would assuredly promote this rationale and likely be protesting the U.S. after any such attack.

So whatever response comes from the Trump administration after the Iranian missile attack, North Korea will assuredly be closely watching to inform any future response plans they may have.

1969 began as a particularly deadly year for U.S. troops in South Korea. In January an EC-121 intelligence gathering plane was shot down over international airspace by a North Korean MIG jet that killed 31 American servicemembers. The deadly attack was just one of many from this time period has been called “DMZ War“. North Korea continued its DMZ War when in on October 18, 1969 it ambushed a U.S. Army truck traveling near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) killing 4 U.S. Soldiers.

The four U.S. Soldiers from the 7th Infantry Division were traveling in a truck marked with a white flag and labeled with a sign that said “DMZ Police” when they were ambushed by a North Korean patrol with rifle fire and grenades. The North Koreans then went up to the truck and shot each soldier in the head at close range to ensure they were dead. The ambush killed Staff Sergeant James R. Grissinger, Specialist Charles E. Taylor, Specialist Jack L. Morris, and Private First Class William E. Grimes.

Following the attack U.S. and ROK troops patrolled the area in an attempt to locate the intruders. Four North Korean commandoes were spotted and engaged by a U.S. patrol. However, the commandoes successfully escaped back across the DMZ into North Korea with no casualties. Three days later the four soldiers were remembered during a ceremony prior to their honor flight back home.

Few know or remember this period of increased North Korean attacks that killed and wounded hundreds of U.S. soldiers who served on the DMZ.  The U.S. and ROK military’s success in the DMZ War had important strategic consequences that unfortunately the four 7th Infantry Division soldiers killed in the truck ambush would never live to see.

For more DMZ Flashpoints articles please click the below link:

Submarine launched ballistic missiles would be a strategic game changer for North Korea, but fortunately they have a lot more work to do before they can effectively field this technology:

Recent satellite imagery revealed a hidden submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles at North Korea’s Sinpo shipyard, a U.S. monitoring website said, amid concerns that Pyongyang could test a submarine-launched ballistic missile as a threatened “new strategic weapon.”

Satellite imagery taken Jan. 1 “revealed the presence of the North Korean SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) and its submersible test stand barge positioned beneath a recently constructed, dockside awning designed to conceal and environmentally protect these vessels,” the website 38 North said.

The submarine had been difficult to detect since the North set up the awning in an apparent effort to protect it from prying eyes, but Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery technology was used to determine what’s under the shelter, 38 North said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

What Generation Z wants doesn’t matter because the Korean left currently in power in South Korea is pushing the country towards a confederation with North Korea:

South Koreans born after 1995 are less supportive of unification and feel less affinity for North Koreans despite a common ethnic identity, according to a recent survey.

The poll from newspaper Hankook Ilbo and Hankook Research taken in early December interviewed a pool of 500 Generation Z respondents and compared their answers to those of 500 South Korean members of Generation X, or people born after 1968 and before 1980.

The Hankook Ilbo reported Friday Gen Z respondents were relatively apathetic about the notion of a unitary Korean people that binds Koreans of North and South.

When asked about their sense of “belonging” to transnational Koreans as an ethnic group, fewer Gen Z respondents responded positively than their Gen X counterparts, or about 13 percentage points lower, according to the report. Lack of identification with North Koreans was also greater among Gen Z respondents; only about 12 percent of them said they view North Korea in a positive light.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Kim Jong-un has not targeted and killed U.S. troops or citizens thus he has nothing to worry about, for now:

In the wake of the drone-led killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, it remains to be seen how the airstrike will affect North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s actions.

Some believe Pyongyang will use the assassination to justify its nuclear program as a necessary form of defense and take its own path toward a nuclear power. But there is also speculation that the North Korean leader may disappear from the public eye ― like his predecessors ― out of fear of a possible U.S. attempt to assassinate him. 

On Monday, three days after the death of the Iranian general in Iraq, the North’s official media outlets carried their first reports on the incident, hinting that the country may chart a new course. 

“There is nothing to hesitate about in the face of growing hostile acts, nuclear threats and blackmail,” the Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece newspaper of the ruling Workers’ Party, said in an article. 

“We should continue to strengthen our impregnable military power quantitatively to ensure no one ever considers using armed forces against us until the U.S. withdraws its hostile policy.” 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but North Korea doesn’t need to use the Soleimani killing to justify their nuclear program when they have for years said they are not going to get rid of it, it just that no one bothers to listen to them.

I would suspect that North Korea is going to play a wait and see approach after the Soleimani killing. The next thing I think people should be watchful for is if the U.S. restarts the Key Resolve exercise that usually begins in March. If so then the North Koreans will assuredly respond with a provocation of their own.

If North Korea responds with a provocation before March the U.S. will likely respond with restarting the Key Resolve exercise. This will all play out in the February-March timeframe which gives North Korea time to see what happens with the current U.S.-Iran tensions.

I hope no one is surprised by this news because the Kim regime is publicly stating what they have been hinting at doing for months:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un proclaimed Pyongyang will no longer be bound to a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and would unveil a “new strategic weapon” soon.  

In a long-anticipated address delivered on the last day of the 5th plenary meeting of the 7th ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee, Kim unleashed a bitter condemnation of the United States for throttling the North Korean economy with sanctions, a posture that he said reflected a “hostile policy” that failed to respect its suspension of nuclear and ICBM tests in 2018.

“Under such condition, there is no ground for us to get unilaterally bound to the commitment any longer, the commitment to which there is no opposite party, and this is chilling our efforts for worldwide nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation,” Kim said.  

Kim vowed to bolster his country’s military muscle and build a “powerful nuclear deterrent capable of containing the nuclear threats from the United States and guaranteeing our long-term security,” though the “scope and depth” of that buildup “will be coordinated depending on the U.S. future attitude.

“The world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future,” Kim added, noting that Washington’s “impudent” stance vis-a-vis their negotiations has impelled the regime to “shift to a shocking action to make [the United States] pay for the pains sustained” by its people. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the only unexpected about this that probably should have been expected is that Iran is acting up at the same time. In other words nothing has changed with these two countries.