Here is yet another step in North Korea’s pressure campaign to get sanctions dropped for little to nothing in return:
This photo disclosed on Dec. 22, 2019, by the Korean Central News Agency shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presiding over an enlarged meeting of the Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presided over an enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and discussed “important organizational and political measures and military steps to bolster up” the armed forces, state media said Sunday.
The meeting was held amid heightened tensions with the United States with Pyongyang threatening to seek a “new way” unless Washington comes up with a acceptable proposal in their nuclear negotiations by end of the year.
“Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un gave analysis and briefing on the complicated internal and external situation and said that the meeting would decide on important organizational and political measures and military steps to bolster up the overall armed forces of the country,” the Korean Central News Agency said.
“Also discussed were important issues for decisive improvement of the overall national defence and core matters for the sustained and accelerated development of military capability for self-defence,” it added.
The Atlantic has an article they recently published criticizing President Trump for his North Korea policy:
Pronouncing the diplomacy dead would be premature. There’s a chance that the North Koreans are simply trying to pressure Trump into making a deal on their terms as he faces reelection. Nevertheless, it’s a remarkable comedown for the Trump administration’s signature initiative to address what it has billed as the country’s top security threat. This is the policy in which the president has invested the most time and resources, the one that he has touted as his greatest success and made a model (maximum pressure + personal engagement by the president = wins for America) in his dealings everywhere from China to Iran. What’s at stake, though, isn’t just Trump’s legacy in foreign affairs or the Nobel Peace Prize he so clearly desires. Also at the mercy of what comes next are global efforts to stop the spread of the world’s most destructive weapons and potentially one of the last opportunities to reconcile North and South Korea after 70 years of alienation.
You can read the whole thing at the link, but as I have been saying for years, the North Koreans are never going to denuclearize. The best the U.S. can hope for is the “Pretend Denuclearization” deal that Pyongyang has been pushing for. The Trump administration has resisted this which has predictably led to where we are at today. Pyongyang will create a “crisis” in the lead up to the U.S. presidential election, the media will breathlessly report on the “crisis”, and publications like the The Atlantic will write opinion pieces like this on how Trump’s policies have failed.
This is North Korea’s version of a pressure campaign to get what it wants which is the “Pretend Denuclearization” deal. This leaves the President with the choice of signing a “Pretend Denuclearization” deal that his critics will then claim he gave into North Korean pressure in return for a bad deal. The other option is to put pressure back on Pyongyang both diplomatically, economically, and militarily like back in 2017 that could lead to potential miscalculations.
I guess we will see what happens, but neither option will lead to the Kim regime denuclearizing.
Here is what one Korean think tank thinks will not happen this New Year:
n this March 2017 file photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency, a ground test of a high-thrust rocket engine is conducted at the Sohae satellite launch site. North Korea said on Dec. 8, 2019, that it has conducted a “very important test” at the satellite launching site, saying the successful testing will play a key role in changing the country’s “strategic position” in the near future.
North Korea is unlikely to test-fire a long-range missile as widely feared because the move would leave Pyongyang without many options and could force the United States to switch to a hard-line approach to the communist nation, a state-run think tank said Wednesday.
The assessment by the Korea Institute for National Unification came amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, with the North warning of an unwanted “Christmas gift” to the United States in case Washington fails to come up with a new proposal by year’s end.
Amid speculation over a possible intercontinental ballistic missile launch (ICBM) as the unwelcome gift, Hong Min, a research fellow at the institute, said Pyongyang would refrain from test-firing a mid or long-range missile this year.
An ICBM launch would “greatly reduce” the options that the North could take and “put the United States in a situation where it cannot help but switch to a hard-line side,” the expert said.
You can read more at the link, but if the North Koreans do conduct a near time rocket launch I believe they will not call it an ICBM test, but instead a space launch. They will claim every nation has the right to the peaceful use of space. Additionally this gives the Chinese and Russians diplomatic cover to block any additional sanctions at the United Nations.
As I expected, it appears the Chinese want the North Koreans to start a provocation cycle in hopes of politically damaging the Trump administration:
Stephen Biegun
Stephen Biegun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, apparently failed to meet with North Korean officials during his visit to Beijing Friday and was expected to depart for home yesterday night.
Biegun touched down in Beijing Thursday for a two-day trip, and there was speculation he may meet North Korean officials there amid stalled denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang. But Yonhap reported that Biegun appeared not to have met anyone from the North.
Neither Beijing nor Washington made any official announcement on Biegun’s Chinese visit as of 8 p.m. press time Friday, but Biegun is known to have stressed to Chinese officials that it was crucial to keep maximum pressure on the Pyongyang regime and asked for help in bringing the North back to the dialogue table.
While Biegun was visiting China, the U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly to confirm him as deputy secretary of state on Thursday, and with that, he became the second-highest individual in the State Department after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Mr. Biegun obviously understands the only one with enough leverage to get North Korea back to the negotiating table is China. Good luck with that:
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun arrives at the foreign ministry in Tokyo, Wednesday. AP-Yonhap
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun is set to ask senior Chinese government officials for China’s help to restart the stalled denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang, a senior ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) lawmaker said.
“Biegun used his high-profile meetings with senior Seoul officials as an opportunity to highlight U.S. readiness to apply quite flexible and inventive ways to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. He is likely to convey these ideas he discussed with South Korean officials to Chinese officials. Simply, Biegun would ask China for Beijing’s help to resume the denuclearization talks,” the lawmaker who is involved with the matter told The Korea Times, Wednesday.
The State Department announced the U.S. envoy for the North will visit Beijing on Thursday and Friday after China and Russia proposed lifting some United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on the North. The department said Biegun will discuss “the need to maintain international unity on North Korea” when he meets with Chinese officials.
You can read more at the link, but it seems North Korean provocations is actually in China’s interest and probably encouraging the upcoming provocation cycle.
Kim Jong-un observes 8th anniv. of father’s death North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C, front) visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on Dec. 17, 2019, to pay tribute to his deceased father, Kim Jong-il, as the North marks the eighth anniversary of the former leader’s death, in this photo released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. The mausoleum enshrines the mummified bodies of Kim Il-sung, the current leader’s grandfather and the founder of the North Korean government, and Kim Jong-il. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
This is just further evidence that North Korea is committed to conducting a provocation:
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, right, chats with his South Korean counterpart Lee Do-hoon upon arriving at Gimpo International Airport, Tuesday afternoon, for his departure to Tokyo, Japan. Biegun failed to meet North Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui during his three-day stay in South Korea. Yonhap
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun failed to meet a senior North Korean diplomat at the North’s side of the Joint Security Area, also known as Panmunjeom, despite his open request for the high-profile meeting to resume stalled denuclearization talks.
“Efforts by intelligence officials between South Korea and the United States to make Biegun’s direct encounter with North Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui actually happen at Panmunjeom went in vain as Pyongyang didn’t respond to the request,” a senior South Korean intelligence official told The Korea Times by telephone, Tuesday.
After wrapping up his three-day visit to Seoul, the senior Washington official left for Tokyo for talks with Japanese officials on the North Korean nuclear issue. The intelligence official added Biegun had planned to pass on U.S. President Donald Trump’s “personal messages” for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to the senior North Korean diplomat if the meeting had happened.
You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime seems committed to raising tensions and creating a “crisis”. This will allow the U.S. media to have non-stop breathless coverage of how President Trump’s North Korea policies have failed. The Kim regime probably believes this will pressure Trump into a deal favorable to them because he is facing reelection next year and will want the Korea “crisis” to go away.
The only question now appears to be what will the rocket launch be? I expect they will conduct a “space launch” and put a satellite into orbit again. This allows the Kim regime to claim they have the right to the peaceful use of space just like everyone else. Plus it gives cover to the Russians and Chinese to block any efforts to further sanction North Korea at the United Nations.
N.K.’s renovated subway This photo, released by North Korean propaganda website Naenara on Dec. 13, 2019, shows people using the renovated subway system in Pyongyang. (Yonhap)
North Korea is just continuing to up the pressure campaign against the Trump administration through the media with these tests. North Korea did not even say what this test was, but I assume it was probably an engine test of whatever rocket they plan to fire:
North Korea said Saturday that it will use its new technologies to develop a strategic weapon to counter the U.S. nuclear threat.
Pak Jong-chon, chief of the North Korean military’s General Staff, also said North Korea has “stored up a tremendous power” and the military is fully ready to put into action any decision of leader Kim Jong-un.
“In the situation of the acute confrontation, the U.S. and other hostile forces will spend the year-end in peace only when they hold off any words and deeds rattling us,” Pak said in a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.
The comments came hours after North Korea said it successfully carried out “another crucial test” at its satellite launch site in a possible sign of further provocations unless its year-end deadline is met.
