Korean Think Tank Does Not Believe that North Korea Will Test an ICBM

Here is what one Korean think tank thinks will not happen this New Year:

North Korea is unlikely to test-fire a long-range missile as widely feared because the move would leave Pyongyang without many options and could force the United States to switch to a hard-line approach to the communist nation, a state-run think tank said Wednesday.

The assessment by the Korea Institute for National Unification came amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, with the North warning of an unwanted “Christmas gift” to the United States in case Washington fails to come up with a new proposal by year’s end.

Amid speculation over a possible intercontinental ballistic missile launch (ICBM) as the unwelcome gift, Hong Min, a research fellow at the institute, said Pyongyang would refrain from test-firing a mid or long-range missile this year.

An ICBM launch would “greatly reduce” the options that the North could take and “put the United States in a situation where it cannot help but switch to a hard-line side,” the expert said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but if the North Koreans do conduct a near time rocket launch I believe they will not call it an ICBM test, but instead a space launch. They will claim every nation has the right to the peaceful use of space. Additionally this gives the Chinese and Russians diplomatic cover to block any additional sanctions at the United Nations.