Like I have been saying for months, official talks to deploy THAAD to Korea would probably happen once the ROK government had the political cover of a North Korean provocation which the latest rocket launch has given them:
Yoo Jeh-seung (R), deputy minister for policy at South Korea`s Defense Ministry, speaks during a joint press conference with Lt. Gen. Thomas Vandal, the commander of U.S. Forces Korea`s Eighth Army, at the defense ministry in Seoul on Feb. 7, 2016, after North Korea launched a long-range missile as part of the continual push of its intercontinental ballistic missile tests.
South Korea and the United States have agreed to begin negotiations for the deployment of an advanced American air defense system on South Korean soil, officials said Sunday, despite opposition from China and Russia.
The announcement on the controversial defense system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, was given just hours after North Korea launched a long-range missile as part of the continual push of its intercontinental ballistic missile tests.
“The U.S. and South Korea have decided to start official discussion on the possibility of U.S. Forces Korea’s deployment of THAAD as part of measures to upgrade the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s missile defense posture against North Korea’s advancing threats,” Yoo Jeh-seung, deputy minister for policy, said in a joint briefing with Lt. Gen. Thomas Vandal, the commander of USFK’s Eighth Army.
Vandal said the decision was made upon USFK Commander Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti’s recommendation, adding that “it is time to move forward on the issue.” [Yonhap]
Below is the latest on the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea. I have always said that it would take a major crisis for the ROK to have political cover to deploy this system on the peninsula. From the ROK perspective this strategy make sense because it gives them leverage with China to keep North Korea in line if they don’t want THAAD in South Korea:
Placement of a U.S. mobile missile defense system in South Korea remains unlikely in the near term despite continued concern about North Korea’s nuclear program, analysts and government officials say.
Top U.S. military officials want the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, ready to deploy in the Asia-Pacific region on a permanent basis — and its bases in South Korea are ideally where they need to be to counter a possible North Korean offensive.
Last year, Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work said the Pentagon had conducted site surveys for THAAD within South Korea. However, what makes sense from a military tactical standpoint doesn’t always correspond with how leaders view the strategic and diplomatic consequences.
When rumors spread in March of a deal to deploy THAAD to South Korea in an emergency, China decried the possibility as a threat to its security, with Russia voicing opposition as well.
That left South Korea uncomfortably positioned in a dispute pitting China and Russia on one side and the United States and Japan on the other, said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul.
The result was that despite discussions between President Barack Obama and South Korean President Park Geun-hye earlier this year, along with high-level ministerial talks between both nations, neither side has confirmed ever having had formal talks about THAAD. [Stars & Stripes]
If any of you ROK Heads living in Korea feel the need to purchase your very own THAAD missile defense system to put in your backyard to protect you from Kim Jong-un’s missiles, it would set you back only $2.5 billion:
Deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean Peninsula would cost around US$2.5 billion, the Air Force Chief of Staff said on Sept. 22.A propeller from the 1,800-ton top-of-the-line submarine Ahn Jung-geun was also reportedly replaced five years after its introduction because of 151 cracks found on it.Newly appointed Air Force Chief of Staff Jeong Kyeong-doo responded to questions on the cost of THAAD deployment from New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) lawmaker Kim Kwang-jin during a National Assembly National Defense Committee parliamentary audit on Sept. 22 at Air Force headquarters at Gyeryongdae, South Chungcheong Province.“It would be around plus or minus three trillion won (US$2.53 billion), although nothing precise has been given yet,” Jeong said. [Hankyoreh]
You can read the rest at the link, but I think the ROK Air Force chief is just setting conditions on why the US military should provide the system for the ROK instead of purchasing it out right.
The US Ambassador to Korea says that is premature to begin official talks in regards to deploying THAAD to Korea:
The top U.S. envoy to South Korea said it would be premature for Seoul and Washington to publicly discuss the possible deployment of a new U.S. anti-missile defense system in South Korea, an opposition party spokesman said Monday.
Ambassador Mark Lippert said that no formal negotiations took place between the two allies over the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery, though internal discussions are under way in the U.S., said Kim Yung-rok, a spokesman for the main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy.
Lippert made the comment through an interpreter in a meeting with Moon Jae-in, head of the main opposition party at the party headquarters.
Lippert defended the missile-defense system, citing what he described as serious threats posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. [Yonhap]
I hope someone has since told Richard Armitage that the THAAD missile defense system is for the defense of South Korea and not the US mainland because the system is not designed to shoot down ICBMs:
The main purpose of U.S. efforts to deploy a THAAD missile defense unit to South Korea is to protect the U.S. mainland from North Korean missile threats, a former top American diplomat said Wednesday.
Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage made the remark during a security seminar on Korea, claiming that hosting a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery is a responsibility South Korea has as an ally of the United States.
“I think the United States has approached this incorrectly … I think we have not been as clear … about what THAAD does as we should have been,” Armitage said during the seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Korea Foundation.
“I see the deployment of THAAD as an alliance responsibility for the Republic of Korea because THAAD, although it covers some of the Republic of Korea, … it is more for the defense of the United States, the continental United States against North Korean missiles,” he said. [Korea Herald]
You can read more at the link, but the system the US has to shoot down North Korean ICBMs is the Ground-based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) which has interceptors in Alaska and California.
It sounds like some in South Korea are getting tired of hearing complaints from the Chinese and Russians against the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system:
On Thursday, the Russian ambassador to South Korea called the proposed deployment of a U.S. missile defense system on the peninsula a security threat to the region, the third time in as many weeks that he has weighed in on the issue.
In an interview with Yonhap News Agency, Alexander Timonin, who served as the ambassador to North Korea until last year, said the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) on the Korean Peninsula would constitute a security threat to both Russia and the wider region.
“What concerns us is that a U.S. missile defense system could be placed in areas not far from Russia, adding to worries over THAAD’s radar system or technology,” he told Yonhap. (…….)
“Of course it has multi-purpose tasks. One of the tasks, of course, is North Korea,” Vorontsov told The Diplomat on Thursday. “But, additionally, the capability of this system allows this equipment to intercept missiles, Russian… missiles for example. So, yes, unfortunately, there are grounds for concern vis-a-vis [the] security situation of Russia… and the Chinese.” (……………..)
But some Koreans have received the Russian and Chinese objections coldly.
Song Dae-sung, a professor of political science and former brigadier general with the South Korean Air Force, said that Russia and China preventing THAAD would be the same as South Korea demanding the removal of Russian and Chinese missile placements that could target the Korean Peninsula.
“If China and Russia really hate the placement of THAAD in South Korea, they can take resolute action to ensure the destruction of weapons of mass destruction held by North Korea and a halt to their development,” the Konkuk University professor told The Diplomat late last month. “The insistence that we only consider the South Korea-China and South Korea-Russia relationships and not deploy THAAD, which is opposed by China and Russia, is an insistence that neglects the absolute value of national security.” [The Diplomat]
You can read the rest at the link, but I do find it interesting that a Russian is publicly complaining about THAAD preventing their country from shooting missiles at South Korea.
Here is the latest on the whole deploying the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea that has the Chinese worked up:
The United States has included its advanced missile-defense system as part of the support it would provide South Korea in emergency situations on the Korean Peninsula, a South Korean military source said Sunday.
“The U.S. plans to deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in case of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula,” a military source told Yonhap News Agency. “My understanding is that THAAD is easily transportable with a U.S. military aircraft.”
Washington has recently hinted at the deployment of a battery on Korean soil to better deter the North’s growing nuclear and missile threats. The U.S. stations about 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, which is technically ongoing since no peace treaty has been signed to end it.
The issue of whether or not South Korea should host the American missile defense system has caused a bipartisan divide in local politics. While conservatives support the system, the liberal side has not been so welcoming since it believes the U.S. presence here undermines South Korean sovereignty. The U.S., meanwhile, claims the battery is defensive in nature. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but it seems to me the ROK government is doing a good job of using this deployment as a way to pressure the Chinese to keep the North Koreans in line. If the North Koreans do something provocative the ROK can then tell the US to deploy THAAD to South Korea which is something the Chinese do not want. This keeps the pressure on the Chinese while simultaneously maintaining South Korea’s strategic goal of balancing its relationship with both China and the US.
According to the Korean media here are the three sites that have been chosen as candidates to host the THAAD missile defense system if it ever does get deployed on the peninsula:
The United States has yet to make a decision on the deployment of its advanced missile-defense system in South Korea, though it has carried out surveys on candidate sites, the U.S. forces here said Thursday.
Washington has hinted at the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery on Korean soil, which is home to about 28,500 American troops, to better cope with Pyongyang’s growing nuclear and missile threats.
“There are possible site locations in Korea for this system … Informal surveys have been conducted to find suitable sites in the event of a possible future deployment,” United States Forces Korea (USFK) said in a statement.
The statement came after the vernacular daily Munhwan Ilbo reported Thursday that Washington has picked three candidate sites — the city of Pyeongtaek, just south of Seoul, the southern port city of Busan and the border town of Wonju.
Without elaborating, the USFK said, “No decisions have been made either to deploy a system or determine where such a system might go … No procedures for discussions with South Korea have taken place.”
Stressing that the U.S. will be “in full consultation” with South Korea if it were to station a THAAD unit on its soil, the USFK said the battery “would provide benefits” to the defense” of the host country “against the North Korean missile threat by augmenting the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system and U.S. Patriot systems in Korea. [Yonhap]
