South Korean dancer, Kim Sun-ja, performs “jinhonmu,” a dance for the repose of the deceased, during a memorial service at Yokoamicho Park in Tokyo on Sept. 1, 2017, to pay tribute to Koreans massacred by Japanese in the aftermath of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake in Tokyo and its vicinity. A monument at the park says up to 6,000 Koreans were killed. The massacre began when the Japanese government spread rumors of a planned riot by Koreans in a scheme to divert public attention from social unrest. (Yonhap)
With the ever increasing threat from North Korea the Japanese government may be forced into pursuing some kind of pre-emptive strike capability:
Japan is debating whether to develop a limited pre-emptive strike capability and buy cruise missiles — ideas that were anathema in the pacifist country before the North Korea missile threat.
With revisions to Japan’s defense plans underway, ruling party hawks are accelerating the moves, and some defense experts say Japan should at least consider them.
After being on the backburner in the ruling party for decades, a possibility of pre-emptive strike was formally proposed to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe by his party’s missile defense panel in March, prompting parliamentary debate, though somewhat lost steam as Abe apparently avoided the divisive topic after seeing support ratings for his scandal-laden government plunge. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read the rest at the link, but the offensive strike capability they are considering is tomahawk cruise missiles fired from their Aegis destroyers to take out North Korean missiles before they are launched.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observes the launch of a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile in Pyongyang on Aug. 29, 2017, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Aug. 30. The missile flew over Japan and landed in the northern Pacific Ocean. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
It looks like the Kim regime wants normalize firing missiles over Japan and use the joint US-ROK military exercises as excuses to do so:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watches test-firing of a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile at Sunan airport near Pyongyang, Tuesday, in this file photo released by the Korea Central News Agency, Wednesday. / Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signaled more missile launches into the Pacific Ocean after a successful test of a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that flew over Japan, Tuesday, according to Pyongyang’s state media, Wednesday.
The Hwasong-12 flew about 2,700 kilometers over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean. This was the first time that North Korea has fired a ballistic missile over Japan.
“The missile firing, which closely resembled actual warfare, is the first step of our military operations in the Pacific and a significant prelude to check the U.S. territory of Guam,” the North’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted Kim as saying.
“We need to carry out more ballistic missile tests toward the Pacific, so that we can develop strategic forces more practically.”
His comments showed the North could test-fire missiles toward not only areas around the Korean Peninsula but also those near Japan, Guam and other Pacific regions.
The KCNA said the country chose Aug. 29 for the missile launch to intimidate Japan on the occasion of the 107th anniversary of Japan’s annexation of Korea in 1910.
“We carried out a bold operation, which flabbergasted the brutal Japanese islanders, on bloody Aug. 29, the day when the humiliating treaty of annexation was announced 107 year ago,” the KCNA said. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but it is clear the Kim regime feels there will be no repercussions from firing missiles over Japan and thus why this may become the new normal. I guess we will see if the Kim regime is right about this assumption.
This exercise was unrelated to the recent North Korean missile launch over Japan, but I think it is pretty significant that the Japanese are willing to demonstrate that they can deploy their own Patriot batteries defend a US airbase:
Japan’s air force demonstrated a Patriot missile-defense system at Yokota in western Tokyo Tuesday, just hours after a North Korean missile flew over Hokkaido.
The Japan Air Self-Defense Force is deploying Patriot Advanced Capability-3 surface-to-air systems to several U.S. bases in Japan to test their ability to quickly respond to Pyongyang’s missile threats, a U.S. Forces Japan statement said.
A convoy of trucks carrying PAC-3 components arrived at Yokota, headquarters of USFJ and the 5th Air Force, Tuesday morning. The planned deployment happened soon after North Korea test-fired a missile over Japanese territory, prompting alerts in a dozen prefectures before falling into the ocean east of Hokkaido. It was the latest in a string of missile tests this year, including one that appeared to simulate a nuclear attack on U.S. forces in Japan. [Stars & Stripes]
Japan's foreign minister says what others may be thinking: easier for NK to get away with a missile fired over Japan than towards Guam. pic.twitter.com/iAPP3BPWer
For North Korea to fully test its intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) it was going to have to fire over Japan and the ongoing UFG exercise gave them the cover to do so:
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile traveled around 2,700 kilometers (1,677 miles) and reached a maximum height of 550 kilometers (341 miles) as it flew over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. The launch appeared to be the first of a North Korean missile to cross over Japan, though some rockets it said were used to put satellites into space have done so. It also appeared to be the North’s longest-ever missile test, but South Korean officials couldn’t immediately confirm. [Associated Press]
The North Koreans have now proven that their IRBM works on a nominal trajectory which also proves they have the capability to strike Guam. However, what I haven’t heard yet in any news articles is whether the reentry vehicle successfully reentered the atmosphere? We will probably hear more about this in the coming days.
Here is what the Japanese government had to say after the launch:
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters that the government had a grasp of the situation immediately after the launch. He called it “an unprecedented, grave and serious threat” that damages the peace and security of the region, adding that Tokyo had lodged a firm protest with Pyongyang.
However, Foreign Minister Taro Kono told reporters that the North may have “held back” in its latest launch by not targeting the area around the U.S. territory of Guam. In an earlier threat, the North said it had formulated a plan to send missiles into the waters near the island, home to key U.S. military bases.
Kono also told reporters the government had requested that a United Nations Security Council meeting be convened over the launch. That meeting was expected later Tuesday. [Japan Times]
Where is Hans Blix when you need him?:
Here was the ROK reaction to the missile launch:
(Footage of a previous Hyunmoo-II launch shows the bunker-busting munition blowing out a cave and incinerating a dummy.Ankit Panda via Twitter)
In Seoul, South Korean President Moon Jae-in ordered his country’s military Tuesday to demonstrate its “overwhelming” capabilities, should the North decide to attack, the presidential Blue House was quoted as saying by the South’s Yonhap news agency.
The show of force involved the dropping of eight Mark 84, or MK84, multipurpose bombs by four F-15K fighter jets at a shooting range near the inter-Korean border in Taebaek, Yoon Young-chan, Moon’s chief press secretary, said.
Seoul also made public rare footage of its testing of new ballistic missiles. The state-run Agency for Defense Development’s 86-second video clip showed the test-firing of a 500-km-range ballistic missile with “improved warhead power” and that of another one with a range of 800 km. The footage showed the missile accurately hitting mock targets on the ground and in the water. The tests were conducted last week and were the last ones before the deployment of the missiles, it added. [Japan Times]
Quite possibly the most remarkable development from this launch is the measured response that President Trump has taken:
U.S. President Donald Trump slammed North Korea Tuesday after the communist regime fired another missile in defiance of international warnings, saying “all options are on the table.”
Earlier Tuesday, North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japanese territory.
“The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear: this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior,” Trump said in a statement.
“Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table,” he added. [Yonhap]
Considering how measured President Trump has been in his public comments; it leads me to believe there must be something going on diplomatically behind the scenes. My guess is that sometime after the UFG exercise we will find out what the diplomatic approach is.
