Kwon Yang-sook, wife of late former President Roh Moo-hyun, votes at a polling station in Gimhae, South Gyeongsang Province, on June 13, 2018. (Yonhap)
I understand these banks have to do due diligence in preparation to support any investments in North Korea, but this is all irrelevant unless the Trump administration drops sanctions:
South Korean banks, including Shinhan Financial Group and KB Financial Group — have set up task forces to conduct research on inter-Korean economic projects.
Earlier this month, Shinhan Financial launched a task force on North Korea.
The task force was manned by executives from the financial holding firm’s affiliates, including Shinhan Bank.
KB Financial has also set up a task force to review how it could take part in North Korea’s fiancial business operations if inter-Korean cooperation gains further momentum.
KEB Hana Bank will launch a team to draw up plans for financial support in North Korea when inter-Korean economic projects resume.
An official at KEB Hana Bank said the bank is interested in opening a branch in North Korea, but it will be possible “when political conditions are ripe.” [Yonhap]
As I have been saying the suspension of joint exercises with South Korea is something that is easily reversible and can be used as negotiating leverage against the Kim regime:
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, toasts North Korean officials, including Vice-Chairman of the Central Committee Kim Yong Chol, in New York City, May 30, 2018.
President Donald Trump will resume military exercises with South Korea if the North stops negotiating in good faith over its nuclear weapons program, the top U.S. diplomat said Wednesday.
The tempered expectations were markedly different from the optimistic tone set by Trump in a series of tweets earlier in the day. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but I think we will know whether North Korea is negotiating in good faith by the Key Resolve exercise timeframe early next year. If North Korea is not making any irreversible progress towards denuclearization I would expect this exercise would be executed as scheduled.
Kim Ki-choon, former Cheong Wa Dae chief of staff, enters a Seoul court on June 8, 2018, to be tried on charges that he kept a secret register of artists deemed critical of the Park Geun-hye government to disadvantage them. (Yonhap)
Over at One Free Korea he has a posting up that analyzes the recent joint statement between President Trump and Kim Jong-un:
Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.
As always I recommend reading OFK’s entire well thought out analysis at the link.
I fully agree that everyone should be skeptical of this joint statement. However, just like the concessions the Kim regime has made so far, the concessions the Trump administration have made are all easily reversible. Something else to keep in mind is that we don’t know what was privately agreed to during discussions with the regime. I think we should wait for some time to pass to see how this plays out before we declare this summit just more failed diplomacy between the US and North Korea. If the Trump administration drops sanctions for little to nothing in return, that should be the trigger to hit the panic button and declare that Groundhog Day has restarted once again with North Korea.
However, the way President Trump has criticized past administrations for getting little to nothing in return from North Korea in past agreements, I would be very surprised if he chooses this route. I tend to think that the Trump administration is giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and if they don’t reach a comprehensive agreement sanctions will remain in place. As long as the sanctions are in place ROK President Moon Jae-in will not be able to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.
This causes me to think that current negotiations are about what irreversible actions the Kim regime must execute in return for dropping of sanctions. If the North Koreans drag out negotiations like they historically have done, the Trump administration can easily turn back on the Key Resolve joint exercise scheduled each spring and implement more sanctions to pressure the regime to get a deal done. If the Kim regime begins another provocation cycle in response the Trump administration can say they have tried everything to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue and military action may become a more viable option.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that and diplomacy between the US and North Korea works for once, but history does indicate we should all remain skeptical until we actually see it happen.
Keep in mind that the destruction of a missile engine test site is something easily reversible by North Korea and not a true example of something that proves they are committed to eliminating their ICBM program:
North Koreans view local newspaper coverage of the meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump at a subway station in Pyongyang on Wednesday. The photos on the front page of the ruling Workers’ Party newspaper shows Kim warmly shaking hands with Trump. [AP/YONHAP]If Pyongyang destroys a “major missile engine testing site,” as U.S. President Donald Trump said it would on Tuesday after his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the move could indicate the young leader’s willingness to denuclearize.But as with the dismantlement of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site last month, just how far the regime will go in closing down the area – and whether it will have any effect on its nuclear capabilities – remains unknown.
Trump told international reporters in Singapore on Tuesday after signing a joint statement with Kim that the North Korean leader told him he was going to destroy a major missile engine testing site.
The location of the site was not given, and Trump did not go into the details of the test site’s destruction.
The agreement wasn’t included in their statement, said Trump, because he and Kim “agreed to that” after the document was signed.
“That’s a big thing, for the missiles that they were testing, the site is going to be destroyed very soon,” Trump said. “I said, ‘Do me a favor. You’ve got this missile engine testing site. We know where it is because of the heat.’” When Trump asked Kim whether he could close the site, the North Korean leader reportedly said he would.
“I think he’ll do it. I really believe that,” Trump said. “They have a very powerful engine testing site that, again, we’re able to see because of the heat that it emits.”
He added, “Honestly, I think he’s going to do these things. I may be wrong. I mean, I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘Hey, I was wrong.’ I don’t know that I’ll ever admit that but I’ll find some kind of an excuse.”
North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) made no mention of the engine test site on Wednesday in its coverage of the summit, but said that Kim said his country would take “additional good-will measures” if Washington takes “genuine measures” to build trust in order to improve the North-U.S. relationship.
Both leaders shared thoughts on the process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula in a “step-by-step” manner, according to the KCNA.
South Korean analysts believe Trump was referring to the engine testing site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, along the west coast of the country. In the past, North Korea test-fired several ballistic missiles into the East Sea from the site.
North Korean media reported last year that a successful engine test was carried out at the site on March 18. Kim was so pleased, he was pictured giving a piggyback ride to an engineer.
The Cholsan test site is believed to be where North Korea developed its engine for the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, which can target the U.S. mainland. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
What is interesting about this is that before the summit North Korea was reported to already have destroyed an engine test stand used for their ICBM development back on May 19th. I am not sure if this is the same test stand that President Trump is referring to. However, I doubt the Kim regime would just destroy this test stand without some prior discussions with the US about this. You can view satellite pictures of the test stand over at 38 North.
A fan of President Trump’s decision to stop joint wargames against North Korea is Guam Governor Eddie Calvo:
Guam Gov. Eddie Calvo meets with President Trump on Air Force One during a refueling stop at Andersen Air Force Base early on Wednesday morning local time.
Gov. Eddie Calvo met with President Donald Trump as the president made a pit stop at Andersen Air Force Base early Wednesday morning.
Trump was on his return trip from Singapore after a historic summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. (……)
“The war games are very expensive. We pay for a big majority of them. We fly in bombers from Guam,” Trump said after meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un.
“I said — when I first started, I said, ‘Where do the bombers come from?’ ‘Guam. Nearby.’ I said, ‘Oh, great, nearby. Where’s nearby?’ ‘Six and a half hours.’ Six and a half hours — that’s a long time for these big massive planes to be flying to South Korea to practice and then drop bombs all over the place, and then go back to Guam. I know a lot about airplanes; it’s very expensive. And I didn’t like it.”
Calvo said he supports Trump’s decision to halt bomber flights from Andersen. Calvo said the exercises were “threatening,” and put Guam in North Korea’s crosshairs. [Guam PDN]
You can read more at the link, but Governor Calvo as was reported to have told Trump that the people of Guam breathed a “big sigh of relief” after the summit since the island has been repeatedly threatened over the years by North Korea for missile attacks.
Solid comments by all interviewed authorities. I strongly recommend reading this discussion prior to the upcoming Singapore summit. https://t.co/O7F9P734KO
This photo, taken from the North’s Rodong Sinmun daily newspaper on June 13, 2018, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) shaking hands with U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, who is known for his hawkish views on the North, at the Capella Hotel on the Singaporean resort island of Sentosa. Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump held a summit there a day earlier. (Yonhap)
