It has been a good week for President Moon Jae-in:
The ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has swept the local elections as well as by-elections for 12 empty National Assembly seats.
According to exit polls and the vote count by midnight Wednesday, the DPK clinched 14 out of 17 governor and mayoral posts. The largest conservative Liberty Korea Party (LKP) managed to win in the mayoral and governor elections in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province ― its traditional strongholds. Independent candidate Won Hee-ryong won the Jeju governor’s post.
The DPK overwhelmingly won in southeast regions including South Gyeongsang Province, Ulsan and Busan, exit polls showed. The party had never won elections in these regions before. The outcome means the liberal party successfully overcame deep-rooted hostilities in these areas, largely thanks to the high popularity of President Moon Jae-in. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I have always said that President Moon may be a leftist, but he is an extremely smart leftist. Does anyone think it was just a coincidence that the Trump-Kim summit was timed to happen right before the election? Also look at how Moon buried the damaging Druking scandal by naming a special prosecutor right before the Trump-Kim summit. This timing assured that the news would be buried by coverage of the summit.
Finally the Moon administration has been able to effectively take over control of most of the major media outlets in South Korea. Unless his North Korea policies end up imploding over the next year I expect that President Moon and thus the LKP will remain popular in South Korea.
President Trump is definitely working hard to sell the public on how successful the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore was in response to his critics:
U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that the world should feel “safer” because North Korea poses no nuclear threat to the world.
“Everybody can feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!” he wrote just after he returned to Washington from a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on Tuesday.
“Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer,” he added.
Earlier he tweeted several times defending the summit, which critics said lacked specifics and fell short of the U.S. goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.
“Great progress was made on the denuclearization of North Korea. Hostages are back home, will be getting the remains of our great heroes back to their families, no missiles shot, no research happening, sites closing,” Trump tweeted.
“Got along great with Kim Jong-un who wants to see wonderful things for his country. As I said earlier today: Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace!” he added.
In later postings, Trump thanked Kim for taking a “bold” step toward a “bright future” for his people and said that their Tuesday summit helps the world stay a big step away from potential nuclear catastrophe. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but you can read my analysis of the summit at this link. What will be interesting to see in the coming weeks what the domestic North Korean media puts out about this summit.
As usual Professor B.R. Myers has correctly predicted how the Korean left led by the Moon administration will push for a confederation with North Korea by touting the economic benefits:
A few months ago I predicted the ruling Minjoo Party would begin agitating for a league or confederation before the June 13 elections. I said that in doing so it would focus on the economic benefits.
Last week I received the various parties’ campaign materials in a big envelope. (As a permanent resident I am eligible to vote in local elections.) Sure enough, the Minjoo pamphlet has a slogan in big brushstroke font at the top of one page: “Peace Equals Economy!” Underneath, next to a photo of President Moon, is the somewhat coded but still urgent pledge to “construct a permanent peace system this year.”
Of course his base knows what this means. To quote an approving headline in the nationalist-left Hankyoreh on April 29:
The plan for unification via a North-South league is hidden in the Panmunjom Declaration.
Indeed it is, and in plain sight. But the Hankyoreh was quick to drop this talk, being mindful of the need to get the Americans to Singapore in as blissful a state of ignorance as possible. This is why street demonstrations for the “peace system” have so far been rather small and sedate affairs (though with a higher proportion of young participants than conservative rallies). [B.R. Myers]
I highly recommend reading the whole article at the link.
Besides constitutional reform, to make this confederation possible, President Moon and Kim Jong-un need President Trump to drop sanctions. This would allow the Moon administration to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast. They would prefer President Trump to do this without the Kim regime having to give up their nuclear weapons. Trump pushing the Kim regime to completely give up their nuclear weapons before sanctions are dropped makes Moon’s plans for a confederation much more difficult. This is why Moon has been so complementary to President Trump and thrown around accolades such as “Nobel Peace Prize” in effort to win him over to drop sanctions.
Eventually, as B.R. Myers writes, both the Moon administration and the Kim regime hope this confederation will lead to their ultimate goal of the withdrawal of USFK. As I have written about before, I don’t expect the Moon administration to directly call for this because it will mobilize the conservative ROK political opposition against him. Instead he will use the cost sharing negotiations and anti-US groups to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration decides on its own to withdraw USFK.
Once again I recommend reading B.R. Myers entire article at this link.
"Today is a great day," former NBA star Dennis Rodman says in an emotional interview in which he describes his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un https://t.co/eoNeZnYFm7pic.twitter.com/6gouUPBBpX
Members of a South Korean civic group stage a rally in front of the Capella Hotel in Singapore on June 12, 2018, demanding the repatriation of South Koreans kidnapped by North Korea as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un holds a summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the hotel. (Yonhap)
Forget all the talk about denuclearization on the Korean peninsula following the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore, the biggest news for me is President Trump announcing the stopping of joint military exercises:
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in Singapore on June 12, 2018, in this photo captured from the website of The Straits Times. (Yonhap)
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will stop “provocative and expensive” war games with South Korea in a surprise reference to the joint military exercises Pyongyang has criticized as a rehearsal of invasion.
Trump made the remarks during a press conference that followed his historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the Singaporean resort island of Sentosa.
“War games are very expensive,” he said, raising the issue of their cost.
“I think it is very provocative … You have a country that is right next door,” he added, referring to the communist state. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but President Moon has previously said that UFG would be scaled down and now President Trump has used to word stopped. I guess we will see what this all means, but for now it is pretty clear that the August UFG exercise will not happen the way it is normally executed.
If the joint exercises are stopped this is a big win for President Moon. His left wing base does not support the exercises while the political opposition conservative party does. So Moon’s base gets what it wants, for now and Moon can tell his political opposition that he was not the one that cancelled the joint exercises, President Trump did.
These joint exercise are important for USFK due to the high change over in personnel on the peninsula which these exercises help to keep personnel trained with their ROK military counterparts. However, just like everything that North Korea has committed to cancelling joint exercises are easily reversible from the US perspective. I don’t see President Trump committing to something non-reversible like troop withdrawals from the peninsula until the Kim regime does something non-reversible such as removing nuclear material to a third country for disposal.
It should continue to be an interesting year to see how this all plays out.
Below is the statement that President Trump and Kim Jong-un signed during their summit in Singapore with my comments below each point:
U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un sign documents that acknowledge the progress of the talks and pledge to keep momentum going, after their summit at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore June 12. Reuters
Here is the first part of the statement:
1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
There has been a lot of talk about the US opening an embassy in North Korea. This line seems to open the door to this possibility if North Korea behaves of course. An opening of an embassy would symbolize the normalizing of relations between the DPRK and the US which is why I don’t think this will be something happening in the near term. Once the DPRK makes irreversible decisions to end their nuclear program than I think this will become a possibility.
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) gestures as he meets with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un (L) at the start of their historic US-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. AFP
2. The United States and the DPRK will join the efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
This is something that President Moon Jae-in and the Kim regime has been actively pushing for. Professor B.R. Myers has written extensively on this, but Moon wants to eventually establish a North-South Confederation. This is why him and the Korean left have been attempting to amend the ROK constitution to make this happen. One of the changes they have proposed was changing this passage in the ROK constitution:
“The Republic of Korea shall seek national unification, and shall formulate and carry out a peaceful unification policy based on the free and democratic basic order.”
In the proposed revision the word “free” would be removed which would open the door to the Kim regime maintaining power in North Korea after confederation with their own form of democracy. President Moon and his left wing supporters will never admit to this, but that is the only rational reason why they would want this change in the ROK constitution.
Should this matter to President Trump? It seems that from the US perspective if the DPRK ends its nuclear and ICBM programs then it should be left up to the ROK to decide their own future. If the ROK public wants a confederation that sees billions of their taxpayer dollars going up North to support the Kim regime that will continue to maintain a massive conventional military force to threaten them with, then so be it. Remember the Kim regime is only going to agree to a confederation on their terms.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panumunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclerarization of the Korean Peninsula.
Notice that the wording of this statement is “work toward” which makes no demands of the Kim regime to actually denuclearize. So far the North Koreans have only taken denuclearization actions that are easily reversible. I think that in response the US will only make concessions that are easily reversible. I don’t think the US will drop sanctions until concrete actions are taken by the Kim regime to eliminate their nuclear weapons such as shipping nuclear material to a third country. The DPRK and the ROK have long wanted a “freeze deal” that would allow the North Koreans to keep their nukes in return for dropping sanctions. I have so far seen no indication of an agreement of a “freeze deal” from this summit. If the US drops sanctions against North Korea for little to nothing in return than this will be a huge win for Kim Jong-un.
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
It will be interesting to see how this is executed because in the past the US stopped the recovery work because of the ridiculous fees that North Korea demanded. The North Koreans know exactly where the bulk of the remains are because the US military buried a large number of casualties in marked cemeteries before evacuating North Korea after the Chinese intervened in the war.
Marines of the First Marine Division pay their respects to fallen buddies during memorial services at the division’s cemetery at Hamhung, Korea, following the break-out from Chosin Reservoir, December 13, 1950. Cpl. Uthe. (Marine Corps)
To be able to repatriate these remains to their family members the North Koreans have been demanding inflated prices which just shows how low the Kim regime is willing to go to make money. The work to recover the remains ended in 2005 with 220 remains recovered.
As recently as 2014 the Kim regime was trying to get the US to restart recovery of the remains threatening to let them get washed away. It looks like the Kim regime has now convinced the Trump administration to restart the remains recovery, but at what cost?
Final Analysis
My analysis on this is that the Trump administration would love to have North Korea completely denuclearize and give up their ICBMs in exchange for dropping of sanctions and being reintegrated into the world community. However, I am confident based on the people that President Trump has around him, that he is not naive to the past history of the Kim regime.
I think this is the one final chance for the Kim regime to make peace with the United States and if they try to play their old games again, that will be the excuse the President needs to take military action against them. This kind of reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during the Clinton administration. Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat was given the opportunity to make peace with the Israelis during the 2000 Camp David Summit and did not do it which led to the Second Intifada. This gave the Israelis the excuse they needed to crush the Palestinians which they did.
Does anyone see any similarities between these two photographs?
Kim Jong-un currently has the opportunity to seek peace with the United States just like Arafat did with the Israelis. Arafat could not bring himself to make peace with the Israelis despite the great deal that was offered to him that gave the Palestinians nearly everything they wanted. Arafat it was argued did not agree to the deal because it jeopardized his leadership status by being responsible for building a state along side Israel instead of a deadly, authoritarian opposition which is all he knew how to do.
Will Kim Jong-un accept denuclearization in return for building his state after the dropping of sanctions? Time will tell, but like the Israelis I would not be surprised if President Trump isn’t ready to take military action if the North Koreans return to a provocation cycle again. Just like with the Palestinians, I think things will end badly for the Kim regime if that is the course of action they choose to take.
Final Note: By the way did anyone else feel like Kim Jong-un looked like he was a contestant on the Celebrity Apprentice show during this summit? If they would have let Dennis Rodman into the summit it truly would have a been a Celebrity Apprentice episode.
Students majoring in Korean studies at Rice University in Houston tour SK Innovation in the southeastern industrial city of Ulsan in this photo released by the company on June 8, 2018. (Yonhap)
A group of well-built bodyguards with short crew cuts accompanied North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore.
The men, whom South Korean media called “Dark shadows” during the inter-Korean summit in April, moved in a tight formation to keep their boss shielded on his first day in Singapore, Sunday.
There appeared little room for 12 bodyguards to surround Kim’s limousine as he headed to the Istana, the official residence of Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, shortly after he arrived in the city-state on June 10. [Korea Times]
