Category: US-ROK Alliance

It looks like the ROK government has made their decision to continue on with the execution of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises after the conclusion of the Paralympics:

South Korea and the United States confirmed Tuesday that they will hold joint war games on the divided peninsula after the Olympics despite concerns the drills could jeopardize a fragile detente with North Korea.

The longtime allies had agreed to postpone the annual exercises until after the Winter Games in a bid to ease rising tensions with the nuclear-armed North, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.

U.S. military officials have always said the operations known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle would resume after the March 8-18 Paralympics. But some observers speculated that Seoul may ask for them to be further postponed or scaled down to maintain a spirit of reconciliation with Pyongyang.

Defense Minister Song Young-moo dismissed that idea on Tuesday, telling a parliamentary defense committee that the allies would announce the start date for the drills by the end of March, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but what this means is that the ROK government is not ready to make concessions yet to the Kim regime in regards to the US-ROK alliance.

It also means that the North Koreans will use this exercise as an excuse to restart missile testing.  What type of missile they test will be a sign of how serious they are about future talks.  If they launch short range missiles into the Sea of Japan that will be seen as less provocative then firing missiles over Japan or testing ICBMs that could hit the United States.

From Yonhap News:

The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) is providing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and other assistance to help ensure security during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Sunday.

The USFK’s UAVs have been mobilized for surveillance activities around all stadiums to prevent possible terrorist attacks and accidents during the Olympics and the Paralympics. The Olympics run through next Sunday, while the Paralympics will take place from March 9-18.

“The USFK is offering UAV support in close cooperation with South Korean and U.S. military authorities, as well as the Olympic organizing committee, the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, and the U.S. Department of State,” the JCS said.

“This clearly shows that the solid South Korea-U.S. alliance is shining more at the scenes of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics,” it added.

The UAVs are producing live video feeds, which the Olympic security control center uses to protect Olympic venues from any potential dangers.

The type of UAVs remains unknown. But the USFK is known to operate small ones, such as the RQ-11B Raven and the RQ-7B Shadow.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is what ROK Drop favorite Bruce Klingner says should happen after the conclusion of the Winter Olympics:

All this fear could lead to discord between the United States and South Korea, something that in turn could be exploitable by Pyongyang. The North’s participation in the Winter Olympics, which highlighted common Korean themes, is part of Kim’s campaign to drive a wedge between the allies.

If it plays a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, the United States will paint itself into a corner. By defining the completion of North Korea’s ICBM program as an intolerable and strike-inducing event, the Trump administration would be drawing a red line it is not necessarily prepared to hold.

Eventually, every poker player must deliver on their bet, or be revealed as a bluffer. If the United States comes out looking like a bluffer, American credibility will be gravely eroded.

Whoa. Killer detail in @DavidNakamura’s story: Pence’s team didn’t even know the name of the current South Korean ambassador to Washington, gave the name of the envoy who left 3+ months ago. https://t.co/q2uU47Rzg1

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) February 9, 2018

The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension.  The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula.  I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:

South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.

“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.

“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

The Moon administration had previously said that they wanted to take over wartime operational control (OPCON) of military forces in the early 2020’s.  Now the defense minister is saying they want to speed up the change over:

Defense Minister Song Young-moo urged the military’s top brass on Tuesday to hasten preparations to take back Korea’s wartime operational control from the United States.

“The transfer is crucial to realize a reliable national defense suitable to Korea’s power and military capabilities,” Song said during a meeting at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “and to defend the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

He also urged the military to create a combined defense system with the United States under Korean leadership. The meeting was attended by about 200 senior officers of the Ministry of National Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army, Navy and Air Force as well as key operational units of the military.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff said it has focused on preparing a command structure that will be used after the transfer and that it has worked to improve the military’s capabilities so it can lead combined operations with the United States, which is one of the agreed-upon prerequisites for the transfer, in addition to a stable environment and an ability by Korea to counter North Korean nuclear and missile threats. To verify that these prerequisites have been met, one preliminary evaluation and three assessments are required, but the Ministry of National Defense presented a plan last week to speed up the transfer by skipping the preliminary evaluation, which is scheduled for 2019, and beginning immediately with the first assessment that same year.

Reporting to Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon on Friday, the ministry said it will update its plan and discuss it with the United States at the Security Consultative Meeting in October.

Song’s request echoes the sentiment of President Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for an early transfer since taking office in May. In his summit in July with U.S. President Donald Trump, Moon made an agreement with Trump to continue working to “expeditiously enable the conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

One of ROK President Moon’s top priorities after taking office was to push for the early transfer of OPCON to ROK forces.  The US government has pretty much told him that if he wants it he can have it, but the US side of the command will be downgraded to a three-star general.

It looks like US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster has been reading analysis on One Free Korea in regards to why North Korea is really developing their nuclear weapons and currently pursuing talks with South Korea:

U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said Tuesday the purpose of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year address was to “try to drive a wedge” between Seoul and Washington.

That assessment of Kim’s 40-minute speech was in stark contrast to that of the Blue House. President Moon Jae-in’s Spokesman Park Soo-hyun said Monday his office “welcomed” Kim’s overture about sending a delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, set to kick off next month in Gangwon.

Park made no mention of Kim’s threatening the United States with a nuclear attack in the address.

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said Tuesday in New York that her country is “not going to recognize” or “acknowledge” any talks other countries have with the North unless the regime agrees to foreswear its nuclear weapons program.

Asked by Greta Van Susteren, a contributor for the Voice of America (VOA), about Kim’s Olympic gesture to South Korea, McMaster replied: “Anybody who thought that the speech was reassuring was drinking too much champagne over the holidays…..he is building a hair-trigger nuclear force that can place the world at risk.”

McMaster continued that it was “pretty clear” Kim was trying to separate Seoul and Washington, but, “Of course, that’s not going [to] happen. His provocative actions, what he’s been doing, is driving our alliances closer together.”

The security adviser explained that the “only reason” why North Korea was developing weapons was to “coerce or blackmail or extort the United States to leave the peninsula and Northeast Asia.”

Beyond that, he continued, it wants to unify the two Koreas under its own “failed system.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but there is a false belief that North Korea is solely pursuing nuclear weapons for regime survival when the regime has survived just fine for decades with the threat of a massive artillery strike on Seoul.  It is very arguable that the ultimate goal of the North’s nuclear weapons program is to co-opt the ROK into a confederation on North Korean terms.

It looks like the upcoming Key Resolve exercise will be delayed if North Korea does not cause any more provocations:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed Thursday to delay their countries’ regular joint military exercises during the Winter Olympic Games to be held here next month.

The agreement came in a telephone conversation between the two leaders, according to the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.

The tentative agreement came at a request from the South Korean leader.

“I believe it would greatly help ensure the success of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games if you could express an intention to delay joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises during the Olympics in case the North does not make any more provocations,” Moon was quoted as telling Trump.

The U.S. president agreed, saying Moon may tell North Korea that there will be no military exercises during the Olympics, according to Cheong Wa Dae.

In a press release, the White House confirmed the leaders agreed to “de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Olympics are in February and the Key Resolve exercise is typically executed in March so it was not like both events were overlapping.  However, preparations and personnel movements do happen in February and a shift of Key Resolve will provide the ROK military more time to focus on Olympic security before executing the exercise.

I guess the big question becomes what happens if North Korea commits a provocation like a missile test? Does Key Resolve get executed at the original time?  I would not be surprised if North Korea does a more ambiguous provocation like a space launch just to create tension in the US-ROK alliance over what to do in response.

As I have said before from the Chinese perspective a freeze deal between the US and North Korea is in their interests.  Freezing US-ROK joint military exercises is a way to reduce military readiness and push forward the long term goal of separating the ROK from the US:

China reiterated on Thursday that the most reasonable way to resolve North Korea’s nuclear stalemate is to push for a stop to joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. in exchange for freezing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile provocations.

“China sees the freeze-for-freeze scheme is the most reasonable way,” Geng Shuang, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, told a regular press briefing.

He made the remarks in response to what U.S. President Donald Trump earlier said.

Explaining the outcome of his 12-day Asia trip that also included a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump said on Wednesday (Washington time) that the two leaders agreed that they “would not accept” the freeze for freeze agreement, “like those that have consistently failed in the past.”

The spokesman said stopping the joint military exercises and provocations at the same time is the “first step” necessary to create an environment for talks and called for other countries to “actively” consider the method that China had proposed.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the whole dispute over the US deployment of the THAAD battery to South Korea is just another front in China’s long term effort to separate the US and the ROK.

It is good to see the large turn out of people welcoming President Trump to Camp Humphreys:

President Moon Jae-in (L) meets with U.S. President Donald Trump at Camp Humphreys, the new home of the U.S. Eighth Army, in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, on Nov. 7, 2017. (Yonhap)

When U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Korea, Tuesday, it was not just President Moon Jae-in who came to greet him ― from early morning, supporters and opponents of Trump gathered in various parts of the country awaiting the U.S. leader.

At Camp Humphreys ― Trump’s first official destination and a newly expanded U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul ― over 1,500 conservative civic group members waved American and Korean flags, shouting “We love Trump,”alongside banners hailing the two country’s alliance.

On the other side, a smaller group of around 20 people stood with posters written, “No Trump, No War.”  [Korea Times]

It is also good to see that the Moon Jae-in administration has been able to keep the anti-US leftists under control in Seoul as I expected they would do:

But the largest rallies took place near Cheong Wa Dae and Gwanghwamun Square in central Seoul, where an anti-Trump alliance of over 220 liberal civic organizations filled the streets.

Beginning with a press briefing in front of the Cheongun-dong office near the presidential office before noon, the group members made their way to Gwanghwamun Square.

From morning, 15,600 police officers blanketed the area, boosting security measures against possible contingencies. Gwanghwamun Square was surrounded by a wired fence and bus barricade.

You can read more at the link, but according to ABC News “hundreds” of anti-Trump protesters showed up in Seoul.  By Korean protest standards this is a pathetic turn out and shows that the Moon administration likely reigned in their left wing base to not come out in force and make fools of themselves during the President’s visit.