It is going to be really interesting to see what President Trump says during his visit to South Korea. On prior foreign visits since taking the Presidency he has been pretty restrained with what he has said. However, it will be interesting to see if he makes any “tear down this wall” like statements to North Korea during his visit:
President Donald Trump
South Korea will provide the best treatment it can offer to a foreign dignitary when U.S.President Donald Trump arrives here Nov.7 for a two-day state visit, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.
Trump will be the first sitting U.S.head of state to make a “state visit” in 25 years following George H. W.Bush in 1992. He will also be the first head of state to visit Korea since the Moon Jae-in government was launched in May.
“A state visit is made only once for a country during a Korean president’s term,” presidential spokesman Park Soo-hyun said.“Considering this, Trump’s state visit means we are treating him with the best respect as a top guest.”
Foreign leaders’ visits are divided into state, official, working and private visits, with each governed by different protocols.
A state visit usually includes welcome and farewell ceremonies upon arrival and departure, an artillery salute, an official welcome ceremony at Cheong Wa Dae, a state dinner with a performance, a summit and cultural programs.Trump’s visit this time will include almost all such events, according to Park.
Trump and first lady Melania will arrive here in the morning following their visit to Japan.They will leave for Beijing in the afternoon the next day.Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, will also accompany the first couple as a member of the official entourage. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump will arrive on the morning of November 7th and is scheduled to give a speech to the National Assembly after visiting the Blue House. There are no plans to visit the DMZ during his visit because of the current tensions with North Korea.
The Steve Bannon of the President Moon administration may be putting out a trial balloon of the North Korea policy the ROK President may ultimately move towards:
Moon Chung-in
Meanwhile President Moon has declared a commitment to avoiding war no matter what, and last week Moon Chung-in, his special envoy for unification issues, approvingly stated that many South Koreans are ready to decouple the alliance in order to keep the peace. The Yonsei professor also renewed his opposition to the stationing of THAAD and called for recognition of the North as a nuclear power. While claiming not to speak for the president, despite his special status, he made sure to add that many people in the Blue House agree with him.
Let there be no doubt that Professor Moon is saying what President Moon would say if Kim Jong Un could just bring himself to sit quietly for a month or two. The envoy’s apparent function (his famous bluntness precluding any traditionally diplomatic one) is to habituate a domestic audience to messages the Blue House will issue in due course. [B.R. Myers]
I highly recommend reading the entire article by ROK Drop favorite B.R. Myers at the link. However, is anyone else seeing a possible perfect storm of events that could lead to a massive shake up in the US-ROK alliance?
The city’s on-post soil analysis of Yongsan Garrison did not show contamination above safe levels. This may be an indication that the off-post soil contamination may not be from the base as claimed. However, the results are not going to matter to South Korean leftists who have been using this issue to create tension in the US-ROK alliance:
Yongsan Garrison in Seoul.
The result of Seoul City’s probe into soil and groundwater in areas near a US military base in central Seoul over alleged oil leaks came out Tuesday, showing below average levels of contamination in the samples from six of nine sites around the military base in Yongsan.
In August, the Seoul city government conducted its own survey on soil and water near the US base for possible contamination with toxic chemicals, amid growing calls for the disclosure of pollution levels in the area.
According to the analysis of samples released Tuesday, all six areas had soil and water contamination below average levels, based on the Soil Environment Conservation Act here.
However, two spots, the main post and the transportation office, will be reinvestigated next month, the city said, as samples from there were close to the average level.
Officials said that levels of total petroleum hydrocarbon detected from these sites were close to exceeding the standard level of 500 milligrams per kilogram. The detected amount was 471 milligrams per kilogram.
“Although there were no significant traces of contamination found from the probe this time, we are still concerned about areas where contamination levels were close to the standard, while the source of the pollutants near the US military base remains unknown,” said Kwon Ki-wook, chief of the city’s water circulation safety bureau. [Korea Herald via reader tip]
That is what columnist Oh Young-jin in the Korea Times is saying that South Korea should prepare for :
Oh Young-jin
Just the talk of a U.S. pullout could shake the Korean economy upside down, sending foreign investors packing and leaving.
So if there would be a separation between the two, it would be the U.S. that has a change of heart.
There have been distinct signs that this is happening.
First, Henry Kissinger, a U.S. guru of diplomacy serving as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations, is a strong advocate for that. Typical of big power politics, wrapped in the trappings of realpolitik, the Nobel Peace Prize winner suggests that the U.S. should deal directly with China to resolve the North Korean crisis.
He suggests that the U.S. address China’s biggest concern ― Korean unification led by Seoul that sees American GIs and their Korean allies breathing down its neck with the buffer of the North gone. Kissinger’s solution is pulling out U.S. troops out of the Korean Peninsula.
Second, why is the Kissinger formula noteworthy? The answer lies in Steve Bannon, a mentor to U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently was fired as chief strategist. He was right on the money when he referred to the U.S. withdrawal from the South to settle the North Korean crisis, although he dismissed it as a remote possibility. (………)
Seoul should be prepared for three contingencies ― a total U.S. withdrawal, partial and maintenance of the status quo. The first scenario is comparable to the Paris peace accord struck by the U.S. and the communist Vietnamese, which led to the fall of Saigon as the U.S. troops were leaving. The examples for the second are Iraq and Afghanistan where the U.S. has drastically reduced its troops, which has seen an occasional surge. The third is the current situation. [Korea Times]
Can someone please define what temporary means? Is the North Korean missile threat to South Korea just going to magically go away sometime soon to where the THAAD system will no longer be needed?:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in defended the government’s decision to fully deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system here Friday, saying it was an inevitable decision to protect his people from evolving nuclear and missile provocations from North Korea.
The president, however, hinted at possible changes in the future, calling it only a temporary decision.
“While ignoring our government and the international community’s repeated demands and warnings, North Korea staged its sixth nuclear test following a series of ballistic missile launches. And due to these developments, our security situation has become more serious than ever,” the president said in a released statement.
“Therefore, the government reached a decision that it could no longer delay the temporary deployment of THAAD to prevent war on the Korean Peninsula and protect the lives and safety of its people,” he added. [Yonhap]
It looks like there could be chaos today in in Seongju as the US military tries to move the remaining launchers and equipment on to the THAAD site:
The U.S. military will deploy additional launchers for an advanced missile-defense system Thursday in a remote area of South Korea despite local protests, the defense ministry said.
Seoul said Monday that it had cleared the last administrative hurdle to installing four more launchers soon to complete the deployment of the anti-missile battery known as THAAD, aimed at countering the growing threat from the North.
The plan has met with regular protests in Seongju, the southeastern area where the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system is stationed.
Protesters gathered again Wednesday near the former golf course that is housing THAAD, saying they would try to try to block the entrance with cars and tractors. [Stars & Stripes]
As I have said before, despite all the provocations and deadly aggressive behavior over the past few years by Kim Jong-un, some how South Koreans are more fearful of President Trump:
Citizens in Seoul Station watch news showing a North Korean newsreader announcing that Pyongyang successfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test, Sunday. / Yonhap
“My firm belief is that war will not happen. The general consensus among my friends is that war won’t break out since the U.S. and China are involved,” Choi Yong-kwan, a 20-year-old college student, said as he read an article on his mobile phone.”But I definitely do feel a sense of growing tension and fear ― it’s their sixth nuclear test and they are on their way to refining their nukes.”
“I’ll leave Korea and head for Canada or something” was the initial response from Park, an elementary school teacher. But as she went on, she dismissed the idea of war. “To be honest I don’t put too much thought into this because it’s always been this way. War does not come easily,” she said. “And we shouldn’t be worried. Fear is what leads to war.”
For the public in the South, North Korea’s provocations are not treated as something new. Although most stuck to this instinct, some added U.S. President Donald Trump as a new, unpredictable and perhaps even more frightening variable.
“This is nothing new. Just another provocation by the North as I see it and it’s been worse before but still did not lead to war. I don’t think any South Korean male who has been in the military is scared,” 29-year-old Yoon Tae-jun from Busan said, adding “But then again I’m not sure this time because of Trump.
“I’m not keeping an eye on this ― maybe this is the problem. But this time, maybe Trump will take some sort of action,” Kwon Suk-in, 27, said. “There must be no war.” [Korea Times]
Considering that the Blue House cannot even get the remaining four THAAD launchers to the site at Seongju blockaded by protesters, could you imagine the size of the blockade that would happen to any location hosting tactical nuclear weapons? However if the US and the ROK wanted to get China and North Korea’s attention reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons would be one way doing it:
Two B-1B Lancer bombers from Guam and four F-35B stealth fighter jets from U.S. bases in Japan fly over Japan’s air space on Thursday after the United States deployed its strategic assets to South Korea for a live firing exercise near the inter-Korean border, in response to the North’s intermediate-range ballistic missile launch Tuesday. [YONHAP]The Blue House dismissed the possibility of bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea after reports got out that Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo mentioned the idea in a meeting with his counterparts in Washington.
“We have not discussed anything related to the tactical nuclear weapons in this administration,” said a senior government official of the Blue House. “The Korean government respects the international efforts on nonproliferation and its policies have been and will be in line with these efforts. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
