Considering that the Blue House cannot even get the remaining four THAAD launchers to the site at Seongju blockaded by protesters, could you imagine the size of the blockade that would happen to any location hosting tactical nuclear weapons? However if the US and the ROK wanted to get China and North Korea’s attention reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons would be one way doing it:
Two B-1B Lancer bombers from Guam and four F-35B stealth fighter jets from U.S. bases in Japan fly over Japan’s air space on Thursday after the United States deployed its strategic assets to South Korea for a live firing exercise near the inter-Korean border, in response to the North’s intermediate-range ballistic missile launch Tuesday. [YONHAP]The Blue House dismissed the possibility of bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea after reports got out that Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo mentioned the idea in a meeting with his counterparts in Washington.
“We have not discussed anything related to the tactical nuclear weapons in this administration,” said a senior government official of the Blue House. “The Korean government respects the international efforts on nonproliferation and its policies have been and will be in line with these efforts. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
This is turning into what seems a monthly activity, North Korea shoots a missile and the US military responds with a practice bombing strike:
Two days after North Korea flew a missile over Japan, the United States and South Korea staged their own show of force with state-of-the-art stealth fighters Thursday.
Four US F-35B fighter jets joined two US B-1B bombers and four South Korean F-15 fighter jets in the joint US-South Korean flyover of the Korean Peninsula, an official with the South Korean air force told CNN.
The exercise was designed to “strongly counter North Korea’s repeated ballistic missile tests and development of nuclear weapons,” the official said.
In a statement, the air force said the US bombers flew out of Guam and four stealth fighter jets from a US Marine Corps base in Japan.
They conducted a mock bombing drill, which simulated a surgical strike of key enemy facilities, over the Pilsung Range in the eastern province of Gangwon. [CNN]
It will be interesting to see if the protesters allow the additional THAAD equipment on to the site considering the blockade they have been maintaining. Will the Moon administration be willing to send in police to forcibly remove grandmas and grandpas off of the road? We are about to find out:
South Korea is poised to complete the installment of a US missile shield next week, officials said Friday, despite unabated controversy over the Moon Jae-in government’s flip-flopping on the timing of the deployment.
The stationing of the remaining four launchers of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system comes as the Environment Ministry wraps up a small-scale environmental review. The equipment will join the already operational two launchers, radar and other assets to form a full-fledged battery.
The move will also coincide with a maiden face-to-face meeting between South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo and US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, set for Wednesday in Washington.
“Currently a small-scale environmental impact assessment is under way, and I can’t say it for certain, but the results are likely to come out around Monday,” a Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters on customary condition of anonymity.
The Ministry of National Defense echoed the view, saying the four launchers and related apparatus will be brought to the site in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, as soon as the survey is finished. [Korea Herald]
I think no matter what the government does these protesters will never be happy because this is not about environmental concerns, but instead a not in my backyard mentality:
Officials from the defense and environment ministries measure electromagnetic radiation and noise from the site of the THAAD deployment in Seongju, some 300 kilometers south of Seoul, on Aug. 12, 2017, as part of the environmental survey on the controversial U.S. missile defense system. (Yonhap)
Local residents and activists campaigning against the deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system said Sunday they will not accept the outcome of a government survey that ruled out the possibility of its serious environmental damage.
On Saturday, the government announced the result of a survey of electromagnetic radiation and noise from the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Seongju, some 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul.
The defense ministry said the radiation level was far below the regulatory protection standard and the noise level in the residential areas is also on par with the maximum regulatory threshold.
Seongju residents and civic groups denounced those findings, saying it is not credible since the test was only done by the government and without any experts from the private sector.
“There was no one in the assessment team that we recommended, and it is not acceptable since it’s not a full test but a very partial one done to wrap up the whole process, which is illegal,” said Lee Seok-ju, a representative of the Seongju residents. [Yonhap]
The majority of Americans may support defending South Korea if attacked, but currently only a minority of 40% support any preemptive military action:
More than 60 percent of Americans are in favor of sending troops to defend South Korea in the event of an attack by North Korea, a survey showed Monday, indicating a strengthened commitment toward the Asian ally.
The survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs with support from the Korea Foundation, found 62 percent of Americans favored the use of U.S. troops if North Korea invaded South Korea, the first time there was a majority since the first survey in 1990.
The council attributed the spike to the public’s sense of a heightened threat from North Korea.
The survey was conducted on a weighted national sample of 2,020 adults living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between June 27 and July 19. Some of the respondents are presumed to have been aware of North Korea’s first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on July 4.
The ICBM had the range to strike Alaska or Hawaii, according to experts.
According to the survey, 75 percent of the respondents viewed North Korea’s nuclear program as a critical threat, up 15 percentage points from last year and 20 points from 2015.
The council said it was the largest on-year increase for a potential threat mentioned in this year’s survey.
North Korea’s nuclear program ranked among the top threats facing the country, it added.
On the policy options to stop the North’s nuclear weapons program, imposing tighter economic sanctions on the country won the most support with 76 percent, followed by imposing sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with North Korea at 68 percent.
The other options were conducting airstrikes on nuclear production facilities (40 percent), sending U.S. troops to destroy nuclear facilities (28 percent), accepting that North Korea will possess nuclear weapons in exchange for producing no more (21 percent), and accepting that North Korea will produce more nuclear weapons (11 percent). [Yonhap]
RAND researcher Bruce Bennett explains why South Korea needs the THAAD missile defense system:
Bruce Bennett
There were many reasons for the deployment of THAAD in Seongju, the location chosen for the THAAD battery in South Korea. One leading reason: In a major Korean conflict, tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel would deploy to Korea over time largely through the Pusan port area in southeastern Korea. They would be most vulnerable to a North Korean nuclear weapon attack while in the port area and while assembling to depart from Pusan. Not protecting exposed military personnel from the North Korean ballistic missile and nuclear weapon threat would be irresponsible, the United States concluded.
By placing THAAD in Seongju, the U.S. can also attempt to protect the large South Korean urban areas of Pusan, Kwangju, Pohang, and Daegu, as well as many other cities in the southern part of South Korea. During a U.S. military deployment to protect South Korea, a North Korean nuclear weapon detonating on Pusan might kill thousands of U.S. military personnel arriving in Pusan, but it could also kill a 100,000 or so South Koreans. With this THAAD placement, the United States is trying to prevent such an outcome. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but one of the arguments often used by anti-THAAD activists is that the system is there to protect US troops not Koreans. This argument has always been one of the stupidest considering that if a missile with a nuclear weapon is fired at a US military base the explosion and destruction is not limited to the US military base; the whole city would be destroyed.
I would not be surprised if the Moon administration is trying to appease the US and the Korean right by saying they are approving the deployment of four additional THAAD launchers while not actually letting them on the site because of the blockade built by protesters. This in turn would appease their left wing base by not letting the launchers on to the site:
A Defense Ministry official here said Tuesday, “The deployment of additional launchers will be handled through a transparent process. That entails convincing local residents and notifying them beforehand of the deployment.” He added, “That means we will not deploy them by surprise in the middle of the night as the first two THAAD launchers were in Seongju in April.”
A Cheong Wa Dae official said, “We will convince local residents and then deploy the THAAD launchers according to the agreement between the defense ministries of both countries.”
But that could take a long time since locals continue to protest. “There is no way that the government will send in riot police to ensure the deployment,” a government source said. [Chosun Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but what does everyone else think? Does anyone think the protesters will drop their blockade and let the launchers access the THAAD site?
That did not take long, the Moon administration is now reconsidering the deployment of the additional four THAAD launchers:
Residents of Seongju and Gimcheon, North Gyeongsang, stage a rally near the Blue House on Monday to protest the order by President Moon Jae-in to discuss the deploying of additional Thaad launchers with Washington. [YONHAP]South Korea’s National Defense Ministry announced Monday that discussions with the United States have begun on the “temporary deployment” of four additional mobile launchers for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system, which would technically complete a full Thaad battery – but the minister said hours later that even that decision can be “reconsidered if the local public expresses fear.”
Moon Sang-gyun, the ministry’s spokesman, said during a regular press briefing Monday morning that the two countries will decide together whether to deploy four more launchers, but didn’t mention by when or how a conclusion will be reached.
If Seoul and Washington do decide to deploy additional launchers, the delivery process will be “transparent,” Moon stressed when asked whether the military would carry out an unnoticed, late-night operation like the one done by the former Park Geun-hye administration.
The ministry’s announcement was made two days after President Moon Jae-in ordered his aides during a National Security Council meeting to start discussions with their U.S. counterparts on deploying four additional launchers in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang, some 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Seoul. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but it looks like the THAAD drama will continue.
I wonder how much time by President Moon’s staff used thinking of a term to call the deployment of the four remaining THAAD launchers that would still appease their left wing political base?:
President Moon Jae-in speaks during a National Security Council session at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul on July 29, 2017, in this photo provided by his office. (Yonhap)
On the liberal Moon Jae-in government’s countermeasures against the latest North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test, the ruling party voiced its consent, but opposition parties called for tougher ones, criticizing the president’s Berlin peace initiative that puts more weight on dialogue with the North than pressure on it.
In an emergency National Security Council meeting convened right after the North’s new ICBM test Friday night, Moon proposed a set of countermeasures, including the temporary deployment of four additional THAAD interceptor launchers, and ordered consultation with the United States on ways to bolster strategic deterrence against the recalcitrant North. The presidential office said later that the provisional deployment does not mean the retraction of a declared environmental impact assessment on the deployment site. [Yonhap]
So basically the Moon administration is doing what the Park administration planned to do with the remaining THAAD launchers without calling it that. What is ironic about this is that the Korea left is supporting President Moon’s decision despite their prior opposition to THAAD.
