Category: US-ROK Alliance

This could be a trial balloon by the ROK government to see what the US reaction would be to scaling down the upcoming joint exercises:

South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo “jokingly” said Thursday the United States does not need to send a nuclear submarine and other strategic assets to Korea for the upcoming joint military drills.

He made the remark during a meeting with visiting Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Scott Swift amid speculation that Seoul hopes to scale down this year’s Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises in order to maintain the mood of inter-Korean reconciliation spurred by the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

“Lots of changes are expected in South-North relations and (security conditions) surrounding the Korean Peninsula going forward,” the minister told the admiral, who is retiring in a few months.

In particular, Song added, the two Koreas plan to hold their third summit talks in late April with South Korea and the U.S. scheduled to stage the annual exercises.

He asked Swift to keep doing his best for a firm defense posture through his retirement, reportedly slated for May.

“You need not deploy (defense assets) like nuclear submarines during the remainder of your tenure as commander,” the minister said with a slight smile in front of TV cameras.

Swift briefly replied that his troops will stay ready for deployment in case of an order from national leaders.

Ministry officials later played down Song’s remark as a joke.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Via a reader tip comes this news that presidential advisor Moon Jung-in has been speculating recently that if President Moon Jae-in asks US forces to leave Korea, they should leave:

Moon Jung-in, mentor to President Moon Jae-in on foreign and North Korea affairs, often previews Seoul’s policy.

Now under question is his remark in a seminar in Washington, D.C., to the effect that U.S. forces should leave Korea, if its president shows the door. The comment was made in the context of explaining the structure under which the U.S. has wartime control of ROK forces.

The U.S. is said to be resistant to changing the structure, which would make the U.S. general subordinate to the Korean general.

Some experts say the U.S. would rather leave Korea than have its troops under ROK command.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I would be surprised if the Pentagon signs on to any plan that allows a ROK general to command US forces.  ROK generals do not have the experience to command the hi-tech weapons, logistics, communications, and command & control systems that the US military brings to a fight.

This is why in the past it has been reported that if an OPCON change happens the US command will be downgraded to a three-star general in charge of an military organization called KORCOM.  ROK generals would take back control of all their forces during wartime, but would have no command authority over KORCOM.  Instead KORCOM would support the ROK military as needed.

If President Moon wants US forces out of Korea without explicitly demanding it; requesting that KORCOM fall under the command of ROK general would be the way to do it.

It looks like the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises that are reportedly scheduled for next month will occur, but the ROK government wants them scaled down and low key as part of their “maximum prudence” strategy:

The allies delayed the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills, originally scheduled for February, to prevent possible tension with North Korea ahead of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. North Korea also held a low-key military parade on the eve of the Olympics in an apparent gesture of reconciliation.

Downsizing the drills is the most probable scenario for Seoul to maintain the ongoing mood for dialogue with Pyongyang.

North Korea has demanded the U.S. and South Korea suspend the drills for good, threatening to take “stern” countermeasures against the move.

The government, however, is likely to resume the drills as planned in April, as the U.S. has expressed a strong willingness to conduct the exercises right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March.

“There is little chance of the delay or suspension of the joint exercises,” Moon Chung-in, special adviser to President Moon Jae-in, said in a seminar in Washington, Tuesday.

Pyongyang is likely to lodge a vehement protest even against toned-down annual drills, so he said the thing is how to proactively deal with the reaction from the North.

He said President Moon will feel like he is walking on egg shells, taking an approach of “maximum prudence” on North Korea unlike maximum pressure from the U.S.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I guess time will tell if maximum prudence will become maximum appeasement at some point.

It looks like the ROK government has made their decision to continue on with the execution of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises after the conclusion of the Paralympics:

South Korea and the United States confirmed Tuesday that they will hold joint war games on the divided peninsula after the Olympics despite concerns the drills could jeopardize a fragile detente with North Korea.

The longtime allies had agreed to postpone the annual exercises until after the Winter Games in a bid to ease rising tensions with the nuclear-armed North, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.

U.S. military officials have always said the operations known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle would resume after the March 8-18 Paralympics. But some observers speculated that Seoul may ask for them to be further postponed or scaled down to maintain a spirit of reconciliation with Pyongyang.

Defense Minister Song Young-moo dismissed that idea on Tuesday, telling a parliamentary defense committee that the allies would announce the start date for the drills by the end of March, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but what this means is that the ROK government is not ready to make concessions yet to the Kim regime in regards to the US-ROK alliance.

It also means that the North Koreans will use this exercise as an excuse to restart missile testing.  What type of missile they test will be a sign of how serious they are about future talks.  If they launch short range missiles into the Sea of Japan that will be seen as less provocative then firing missiles over Japan or testing ICBMs that could hit the United States.

From Yonhap News:

The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) is providing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and other assistance to help ensure security during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Sunday.

The USFK’s UAVs have been mobilized for surveillance activities around all stadiums to prevent possible terrorist attacks and accidents during the Olympics and the Paralympics. The Olympics run through next Sunday, while the Paralympics will take place from March 9-18.

“The USFK is offering UAV support in close cooperation with South Korean and U.S. military authorities, as well as the Olympic organizing committee, the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, and the U.S. Department of State,” the JCS said.

“This clearly shows that the solid South Korea-U.S. alliance is shining more at the scenes of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics,” it added.

The UAVs are producing live video feeds, which the Olympic security control center uses to protect Olympic venues from any potential dangers.

The type of UAVs remains unknown. But the USFK is known to operate small ones, such as the RQ-11B Raven and the RQ-7B Shadow.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is what ROK Drop favorite Bruce Klingner says should happen after the conclusion of the Winter Olympics:

All this fear could lead to discord between the United States and South Korea, something that in turn could be exploitable by Pyongyang. The North’s participation in the Winter Olympics, which highlighted common Korean themes, is part of Kim’s campaign to drive a wedge between the allies.

If it plays a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, the United States will paint itself into a corner. By defining the completion of North Korea’s ICBM program as an intolerable and strike-inducing event, the Trump administration would be drawing a red line it is not necessarily prepared to hold.

Eventually, every poker player must deliver on their bet, or be revealed as a bluffer. If the United States comes out looking like a bluffer, American credibility will be gravely eroded.

Whoa. Killer detail in @DavidNakamura’s story: Pence’s team didn’t even know the name of the current South Korean ambassador to Washington, gave the name of the envoy who left 3+ months ago. https://t.co/q2uU47Rzg1

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) February 9, 2018

The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension.  The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula.  I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:

South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.

“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.

“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

The Moon administration had previously said that they wanted to take over wartime operational control (OPCON) of military forces in the early 2020’s.  Now the defense minister is saying they want to speed up the change over:

Defense Minister Song Young-moo urged the military’s top brass on Tuesday to hasten preparations to take back Korea’s wartime operational control from the United States.

“The transfer is crucial to realize a reliable national defense suitable to Korea’s power and military capabilities,” Song said during a meeting at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “and to defend the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

He also urged the military to create a combined defense system with the United States under Korean leadership. The meeting was attended by about 200 senior officers of the Ministry of National Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army, Navy and Air Force as well as key operational units of the military.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff said it has focused on preparing a command structure that will be used after the transfer and that it has worked to improve the military’s capabilities so it can lead combined operations with the United States, which is one of the agreed-upon prerequisites for the transfer, in addition to a stable environment and an ability by Korea to counter North Korean nuclear and missile threats. To verify that these prerequisites have been met, one preliminary evaluation and three assessments are required, but the Ministry of National Defense presented a plan last week to speed up the transfer by skipping the preliminary evaluation, which is scheduled for 2019, and beginning immediately with the first assessment that same year.

Reporting to Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon on Friday, the ministry said it will update its plan and discuss it with the United States at the Security Consultative Meeting in October.

Song’s request echoes the sentiment of President Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for an early transfer since taking office in May. In his summit in July with U.S. President Donald Trump, Moon made an agreement with Trump to continue working to “expeditiously enable the conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

One of ROK President Moon’s top priorities after taking office was to push for the early transfer of OPCON to ROK forces.  The US government has pretty much told him that if he wants it he can have it, but the US side of the command will be downgraded to a three-star general.

It looks like US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster has been reading analysis on One Free Korea in regards to why North Korea is really developing their nuclear weapons and currently pursuing talks with South Korea:

U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said Tuesday the purpose of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year address was to “try to drive a wedge” between Seoul and Washington.

That assessment of Kim’s 40-minute speech was in stark contrast to that of the Blue House. President Moon Jae-in’s Spokesman Park Soo-hyun said Monday his office “welcomed” Kim’s overture about sending a delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, set to kick off next month in Gangwon.

Park made no mention of Kim’s threatening the United States with a nuclear attack in the address.

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said Tuesday in New York that her country is “not going to recognize” or “acknowledge” any talks other countries have with the North unless the regime agrees to foreswear its nuclear weapons program.

Asked by Greta Van Susteren, a contributor for the Voice of America (VOA), about Kim’s Olympic gesture to South Korea, McMaster replied: “Anybody who thought that the speech was reassuring was drinking too much champagne over the holidays…..he is building a hair-trigger nuclear force that can place the world at risk.”

McMaster continued that it was “pretty clear” Kim was trying to separate Seoul and Washington, but, “Of course, that’s not going [to] happen. His provocative actions, what he’s been doing, is driving our alliances closer together.”

The security adviser explained that the “only reason” why North Korea was developing weapons was to “coerce or blackmail or extort the United States to leave the peninsula and Northeast Asia.”

Beyond that, he continued, it wants to unify the two Koreas under its own “failed system.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but there is a false belief that North Korea is solely pursuing nuclear weapons for regime survival when the regime has survived just fine for decades with the threat of a massive artillery strike on Seoul.  It is very arguable that the ultimate goal of the North’s nuclear weapons program is to co-opt the ROK into a confederation on North Korean terms.