Category: US-ROK Alliance

I would not put too much stock in this statement which I think could be interpreted as rhetoric for the friendly audience and part of a negotiating strategy for US-ROK cost sharing and trade talks.  With that said the ROK would probably be wise to not totally dismiss his comments:

President Donald Trump hinted he may withdraw American troops from South Korea if the U.S. ally doesn’t concede more in trade negotiations, a newspaper reported.

The Washington Post quoted Trump as saying Wednesday in a fundraising speech that the United States was losing money on trade with South Korea as well as the military presence that is meant as protection against aggression from the North.

“We have a very big trade deficit with them, and we protect them,” Trump said Wednesday in audio obtained by the Post. “We lose money on trade, and we lose money on the military. We have right now 32,000 soldiers between North and South Korea. Let’s see what happens.”

“Our allies care about themselves,” he said in the 30-minute speech to donors in Missouri. “They don’t care about us.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the Trump administration is remaining committed to keeping their promise of making the ROK government pay more for the upkeep of USFK:

The negotiations to renew South Korea and the United States’ deal on defense cost sharing are likely to be a “difficult” path, the top South Korean negotiator said Monday following the inaugural round of talks last week.

The allies kicked off the first round of the talks in Honolulu, Hawaii, last Wednesday to renew their five-year Special Measures Agreement governing Seoul’s share of the upkeep of the 28,500 American forces stationed in South Korea for defense against the North.

In the three-day “exploratory” talks last week, the two sides discussed at the “rudimentary level” the contributions each has made to the development of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the positions they have over the next defense cost sharing deal, a senior government official said in a background briefing.

“Both sides shared the understanding that the current negotiations should be led in a way that intensifies the combined defense posture and further develops the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” the official said.

He noted they are likely to be “difficult negotiations,” adding that the allies may take several rounds of talks to reach a new agreement. His comments hint that the allies had wide differences as they entered into the negotiations, especially after President Donald Trump’s repeated call to raise South Korea’s share of the defense financing.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

This could be a trial balloon by the ROK government to see what the US reaction would be to scaling down the upcoming joint exercises:

South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo “jokingly” said Thursday the United States does not need to send a nuclear submarine and other strategic assets to Korea for the upcoming joint military drills.

He made the remark during a meeting with visiting Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Scott Swift amid speculation that Seoul hopes to scale down this year’s Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises in order to maintain the mood of inter-Korean reconciliation spurred by the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

“Lots of changes are expected in South-North relations and (security conditions) surrounding the Korean Peninsula going forward,” the minister told the admiral, who is retiring in a few months.

In particular, Song added, the two Koreas plan to hold their third summit talks in late April with South Korea and the U.S. scheduled to stage the annual exercises.

He asked Swift to keep doing his best for a firm defense posture through his retirement, reportedly slated for May.

“You need not deploy (defense assets) like nuclear submarines during the remainder of your tenure as commander,” the minister said with a slight smile in front of TV cameras.

Swift briefly replied that his troops will stay ready for deployment in case of an order from national leaders.

Ministry officials later played down Song’s remark as a joke.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Via a reader tip comes this news that presidential advisor Moon Jung-in has been speculating recently that if President Moon Jae-in asks US forces to leave Korea, they should leave:

Moon Jung-in, mentor to President Moon Jae-in on foreign and North Korea affairs, often previews Seoul’s policy.

Now under question is his remark in a seminar in Washington, D.C., to the effect that U.S. forces should leave Korea, if its president shows the door. The comment was made in the context of explaining the structure under which the U.S. has wartime control of ROK forces.

The U.S. is said to be resistant to changing the structure, which would make the U.S. general subordinate to the Korean general.

Some experts say the U.S. would rather leave Korea than have its troops under ROK command.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I would be surprised if the Pentagon signs on to any plan that allows a ROK general to command US forces.  ROK generals do not have the experience to command the hi-tech weapons, logistics, communications, and command & control systems that the US military brings to a fight.

This is why in the past it has been reported that if an OPCON change happens the US command will be downgraded to a three-star general in charge of an military organization called KORCOM.  ROK generals would take back control of all their forces during wartime, but would have no command authority over KORCOM.  Instead KORCOM would support the ROK military as needed.

If President Moon wants US forces out of Korea without explicitly demanding it; requesting that KORCOM fall under the command of ROK general would be the way to do it.

It looks like the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises that are reportedly scheduled for next month will occur, but the ROK government wants them scaled down and low key as part of their “maximum prudence” strategy:

The allies delayed the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills, originally scheduled for February, to prevent possible tension with North Korea ahead of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. North Korea also held a low-key military parade on the eve of the Olympics in an apparent gesture of reconciliation.

Downsizing the drills is the most probable scenario for Seoul to maintain the ongoing mood for dialogue with Pyongyang.

North Korea has demanded the U.S. and South Korea suspend the drills for good, threatening to take “stern” countermeasures against the move.

The government, however, is likely to resume the drills as planned in April, as the U.S. has expressed a strong willingness to conduct the exercises right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March.

“There is little chance of the delay or suspension of the joint exercises,” Moon Chung-in, special adviser to President Moon Jae-in, said in a seminar in Washington, Tuesday.

Pyongyang is likely to lodge a vehement protest even against toned-down annual drills, so he said the thing is how to proactively deal with the reaction from the North.

He said President Moon will feel like he is walking on egg shells, taking an approach of “maximum prudence” on North Korea unlike maximum pressure from the U.S.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I guess time will tell if maximum prudence will become maximum appeasement at some point.

It looks like the ROK government has made their decision to continue on with the execution of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises after the conclusion of the Paralympics:

South Korea and the United States confirmed Tuesday that they will hold joint war games on the divided peninsula after the Olympics despite concerns the drills could jeopardize a fragile detente with North Korea.

The longtime allies had agreed to postpone the annual exercises until after the Winter Games in a bid to ease rising tensions with the nuclear-armed North, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.

U.S. military officials have always said the operations known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle would resume after the March 8-18 Paralympics. But some observers speculated that Seoul may ask for them to be further postponed or scaled down to maintain a spirit of reconciliation with Pyongyang.

Defense Minister Song Young-moo dismissed that idea on Tuesday, telling a parliamentary defense committee that the allies would announce the start date for the drills by the end of March, according to the Yonhap News Agency.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but what this means is that the ROK government is not ready to make concessions yet to the Kim regime in regards to the US-ROK alliance.

It also means that the North Koreans will use this exercise as an excuse to restart missile testing.  What type of missile they test will be a sign of how serious they are about future talks.  If they launch short range missiles into the Sea of Japan that will be seen as less provocative then firing missiles over Japan or testing ICBMs that could hit the United States.

From Yonhap News:

The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) is providing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and other assistance to help ensure security during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Sunday.

The USFK’s UAVs have been mobilized for surveillance activities around all stadiums to prevent possible terrorist attacks and accidents during the Olympics and the Paralympics. The Olympics run through next Sunday, while the Paralympics will take place from March 9-18.

“The USFK is offering UAV support in close cooperation with South Korean and U.S. military authorities, as well as the Olympic organizing committee, the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, and the U.S. Department of State,” the JCS said.

“This clearly shows that the solid South Korea-U.S. alliance is shining more at the scenes of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics,” it added.

The UAVs are producing live video feeds, which the Olympic security control center uses to protect Olympic venues from any potential dangers.

The type of UAVs remains unknown. But the USFK is known to operate small ones, such as the RQ-11B Raven and the RQ-7B Shadow.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is what ROK Drop favorite Bruce Klingner says should happen after the conclusion of the Winter Olympics:

All this fear could lead to discord between the United States and South Korea, something that in turn could be exploitable by Pyongyang. The North’s participation in the Winter Olympics, which highlighted common Korean themes, is part of Kim’s campaign to drive a wedge between the allies.

If it plays a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, the United States will paint itself into a corner. By defining the completion of North Korea’s ICBM program as an intolerable and strike-inducing event, the Trump administration would be drawing a red line it is not necessarily prepared to hold.

Eventually, every poker player must deliver on their bet, or be revealed as a bluffer. If the United States comes out looking like a bluffer, American credibility will be gravely eroded.

Whoa. Killer detail in @DavidNakamura’s story: Pence’s team didn’t even know the name of the current South Korean ambassador to Washington, gave the name of the envoy who left 3+ months ago. https://t.co/q2uU47Rzg1

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) February 9, 2018

The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension.  The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula.  I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:

South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.

“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.

“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.