Category: US-ROK Alliance

It looks like the US will be making sure that all inter-Korean cooperation is being done by existing regulations:

The United Nations Command (UNC) for the first time disapproved plans for an inter-Korean railway inspection, amid a deadlock in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S.

The plan was for a South Korean train to travel up to the North’s northwestern city of Sinuiju so officials of the Koreas could inspect the condition of the tracks in the North from Aug. 22 to 27.

The UNC holds authority to approve personnel and supplies crossing the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).

The government has stated the inspections do not go against sanctions imposed on the North by the U.N. and the U.S.

The UNC initially cited the reason for disapproval as South Korea not notifying it of its plan 48 hours in advance.

A unification ministry official said this was likely not the issue.

“There were many instances in which plans that were announced less than 48 hours in advance were approved,” he told reporters, Thursday.

The UNC, in an official statement, said it “required South Korea to submit details of the planned visit.” Calling for additional details is seen as unprecedented.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but considering the duplicity shown by the Moon administration allowing the North Koreans to violate sanctions this is probably a wise move.

I personally always thought the joint exercises would be restarted in time to execute Key Resolve 2019 because I never believed the Kim regime was were serious about real denuclearization:

The U.S. military will move ahead with all future military exercises on the Korean Peninsula, Defense Secretary James N. Mattis said Tuesday, suggesting that America’s brief suspension of the drills as a show of “good faith” toward North Korea has not paid dividends in the struggling denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.

“We have no plans at this time to suspend any more exercises,” Mr. Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon, less than three months after President Trump labeled the U.S.-South Korean drills “provocative” and ordered them temporarily halted following his unprecedented face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Mr. Mattis made the announcement at a rare press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, during which the two also weighed in on a range of other topics, including efforts to stamp out the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the U.S. role in battling Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.  [Washington Times via a reader tip]

You can read more at the link, but supposedly the President received a hostile letter from the Butcher of the Cheonan, Kim Yong-chol that caused this announcement:

After the announcement it appears the ROK government may want to play delay games with restarting the joint exercises:

Resumption or suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States is subject to discussions between the allies, an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday.

“As of now, the issue has not been discussed between South Korea and the United States,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a daily press briefing.  (……)

“It is an issue that should be discussed and decided by South Korea and the U.S. while reviewing the progress in the denuclearization of North Korea,” the Cheong Wa Dae official said.  [Yonhap]

I expect that the Moon administration will come out of his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-il offering some minor concession to entice the Trump administration to believe the Kim regime is serious about denuclearization.  Regardless I would be surprised if Key Resolve 2019 does not happen.  I guess we will see what happens.

I would argue that the fact the US has to voice confidence in South Korea’s willingness to enforce sanctions on North Korea shows there is some doubt and thus they need reminding:

The United States on Wednesday voiced confidence in South Korea’s implementation of sanctions against North Korea amid reports a shipment of North Korean coal docked at a South Korean port.

U.S. broadcaster VOA reported that a Belize-flagged ship docked at South Korea’s southeastern port city of Pohang over the weekend after being spotted at the Russian port of Nakhodka with black material believed to be North Korean coal.

U.N. Security Council Resolution 2371 bans North Korean exports of coal and other mineral resources that could generate revenue for the regime’s development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. U.N. member states are also required to stop and inspect vessels suspected of engaging in illicit activities with the North.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

This article sent to me via a reader tip is a couple of months old, but it is yet another example of what the Moon administration really want to do with the US-ROK alliance even though officially they will say something different:

A top adviser to South Korea’s president says he would eventually like to see the U.S.–South Korea alliance end. In language that sounded almost Trump-like, Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security, said in an interview that alliances in general are a “very unnatural state of international relations” and said that, “for me, the best thing is to really get rid of alliance.” In the meantime, he says, he “strongly” supports “the continued presence of American forces” in Korea, despite hoping for an arrangement that he thinks would better serve his nation’s interests.

It was a remarkable statement coming from a South Korean official who is playing a prominent advisory role in current negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. South Korea has relied on its U.S. alliance since the 1950s to deter threats from its north—and the fate of that partnership, which North Korea has long sought to end, has been a contentious question as a summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump approaches. U.S. and South Korean officials have repeatedly insisted that the alliance is not a bargaining chip with North Korea. And Moon, who presented his ideas as his personal views, was discussing the future of the alliance as a theoretical question about Asia’s security architecture, not as a matter to be determined in nuclear talks. But his comments nevertheless suggested that if those talks succeed and overhaul geopolitics on the Korean peninsula, the alliance could come due for a reckoning.  [The Atlantic]

You can read much more at the link, but President Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.

However, if a peace treaty is signed to end the Korean War do not be surprised if the Moon administration allows left wing groups begin to put pressure on the US to withdraw.  Think of it as a macro version of the current THAAD issue.  The left wing groups have protested and sealed off the THAAD site making life difficult for the soldiers there.  The Korean government could easily end the blockade, but choose not to.  What if in the future if these groups are allowed to blockade and make life difficult for US personnel at for example Camp Humphreys?

President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence.

The issue of signing a peace treaty to end the Korean War is one of the major objectives of North Korea and China to ultimately get USFK withdrawn from South Korea:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said he wants to bring a formal end to the Korean War this year.

“The goal of our government is to declare an official end of the Korean War this year, which marks the 65th anniversary of signing the truce agreement,” he said in an interview with Singaporean media The Straits Times, according to Yonhap. Moon is on a three-day state visit in Singapore.

After the three-year war, China, North Korea and the U.N. agreed to an armistice in 1953.

“It will provide a milestone to the process for permanent peace along with denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a peace treaty between the North and South,” said Moon.

He added that his country is discussing with the U.S. and North Korea about when and how the declaration for the end of the Korean War will be announced.  [UPI]

Here is what Moon had to say about the future of USFK:

Moon noted that the U.S. military presence in South Korea is irrelevant to the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

“South Korea and the U.S. hold a firm position on the roles and importance of U.S. Forces in Korea for sustaining peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region and the Korean peninsula,” he said.

Remember that I have long believed that President Moon cannot publicly advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the US could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

It also gives North Korea and China what they ultimately want as well, but will the North Koreans agree to denuclearization if USFK was to withdraw?  I guess we will see what happens over the next year.

ROK Drop favorite Andrew Salmon writes in the Korea Times about if the Moon administration should pursue a trilateral security pact with the United States with the third country not being Japan, but North Korea:

But even if South Korea can defend itself against North Korea conventionally, there are broader reasons to maintain a Washington alliance.

This alliance goes beyond USFK. Its underpinning is a mutual defense treaty ― which, incidentally, does not even mention North Korea.

There is no multilateral security architecture in the region; no Northeast Asian NATO. We all know that _ for emotive rather than political reasons ― Koreans cannot ally with Japanese. This makes the U.S. South Korea’s only friend to turn to if things turn rough. It has no other ally. Period.

Speaking of the broader peninsula: What is more threatening? A superpower across the Pacific ― or a superpower next door? Could ― gulp! ― Seoul and Washington one day invite Pyongyang into a trilateral pact against external enemies?

This is not complete lunacy. After all, the late Kim Jong-il told the late Kim Dae-jung that he agreed to a long-term US presence on the peninsula to counterbalance a rising China.

I would respectfully suggest that Seoul considers these factors very carefully as it negotiates the upcoming issues of defense cost-sharing and wartime operational control with Washington.

These are big-picture issues here. There are big-boys’ rules to consider. In a situation where all possibilities are in play, there is more at stake than North-South rapprochement.  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but if this was to happen this would be a huge strategic victory for the US against Chinese hegemony in northeast Asia.  Could you imagine a Foal Eagle exercise with US soldiers training with North Korean troops?

Its official, UFG has been suspended:

South Korea and the United States have decided to suspend the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise slated for August, Seoul’s defense ministry said Tuesday, amid dialogue efforts to denuclearize North Korea.

Shortly after his Singapore summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his plan to stop “provocative, inappropriate and expensive” war games with the South, which Pyongyang has decried as an invasion rehearsal.

“Following close cooperation, South Korea and the U.S. decided to suspend all planning activities for the UFG, the defensive exercise slated for August,” the ministry said in a text message sent to reporters.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but remember these joint exercises like UFG can be turned right back on if the North Koreans shows signs of not negotiating in good faith.

It looks like the UFG exercise this year will be very low key if the Kim regime continues to behave:

South Korea will conduct annual war games with the United States as planned but will avoid publicizing them to facilitate diplomatic efforts over the North’s nuclear weapons program, the defense ministry said Monday.

North Korea has sharply denounced joint military exercises, which it considers rehearsals for an invasion, ahead of an unprecedented summit planned between Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump on June 12 in Singapore.

“We will be conducting the U.S.-[South Korean] joint military exercises normally in line with annual plans,” ministry spokesman Lee Jin-woo said during a press briefing. “But we’ll refrain from promoting the contents of the joint drills or opening them to the public as best we can.”

The comments came a day after North Korea criticized the South for planning to join upcoming international maritime drills in Hawaii known as Rim of the Pacific and a major joint exercise with the U.S. called Ulchi Freedom Guardian, which begins in August.  [Stars & Stripes]

Complaining about the RIMPAC exercise is pretty stupid considering it is held in Hawaii and involves many more countries than just the US and South Korea.

The way I look at it, as long as the ROK government continues to allow the protesters to block the road and artificially make sustainment costs for THAAD more expensive they should pay for it:

South Korea’s defense ministry said Friday that the cost of operating a U.S. missile defense system installed in the South may be covered using part of Seoul’s new share of upkeep costs for U.S. forces stationed here.

The U.S. could demand South Korea shoulder some costs needed to run and keep the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system as the allies are in discussion to renew their five-year deal on defense cost-sharing.

“If the U.S. side hopes to use Seoul’s share of the U.S. forces upkeep costs to cover THAAD’s operation, it may be possible to use it within the total amount of the South’s share in accordance with sectoral needs and regulations,” the ministry said in a statement.

It could potentially spark a row as it marks a sharp difference from the government’s stance that South Korea will not bear any of the costs associated with THAAD.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest on the US-ROK cost sharing talks:

The United States has demanded South Korea share the cost of deploying U.S. strategic assets around the Korean Peninsula during recent talks to renew their cost-sharing agreement for American troops stationed here, a foreign ministry official said Friday.

Seoul rejected the request saying the issue should not be part of the negotiation.

“Our basic stance on this matter is that the agreement deals with how to share the upkeep cost of stationing the U.S. troops,” the official told a group of reporters on condition of anonymity.

The two sides held their second round of the talks on the southern island of Jeju earlier this week. The first round was held in Hawaii last month.

The official said that there are “big differences” to be ironed out in the amount of money proposed by each side, which he said requires more discussion going forward. He didn’t provide specific numbers.

With regard to another potential issue of how to share the cost of operating the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system that was installed here last year, he said it was not mentioned in the meeting.

He noted, however, that the matter could be discussed as the cost of the THAAD operation could be dealt with in line with the “logistical support” part stipulated in the agreement.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.