Category: US-ROK Alliance

I guess this exercise was small enough to not draw the ire of Kim Jong-un:

South Korea and the United States have resumed a joint Marine exercise after a six-month hiatus.

According to the Defense Ministry, South Korean Marine Corps and American troops from the III Marine Expeditionary Force stationed in Okinawa, Japan, launched a two-week “Korea Marine Exercise Program,” or KMEP, in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province on Monday.

Around 500 military personnel are taking part in the annual drill intended to maintain joint defense readiness.

The two sides will begin actual maneuvers with troops, amphibious assault vehicles and other equipment on Tuesday.   [KBS World Radio]

You can read more at the link.

So does anyone really think a ROK general is really going to command US forces during a conflict?:

Seoul and Washington signed a strategic guideline on Wednesday that paves the way for a Korean-led combined defense mechanism after the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) from the United States.

South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis convened the 50th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Pentagon and signed the Alliance Guiding Principles to ensure a strong combined defense posture following the transfer.

The mutual guideline guarantees the continued stationing of U.S. troops in Korea and the retaining of the Combined Forces Command (CFC) and the United Nations Command after the transfer of Opcon from Washington to Seoul. It places a four-star Korean general as the head of the future CFC, with a U.S. general serving as deputy commander.

Washington further committed to a continued extension to Korea of its nuclear, conventional and missile defense deterrence capacities even after the transfer. This should quell some concerns in Seoul that the transfer of Opcon could lead to the withdrawal of some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea or the pulling back of American extended deterrence over the peninsula.

The two sides will work toward an initial operational capability (IOC) certification of a Korea-led combined defense posture next year. However, the specific timing of the Opcon transition will be determined later.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but this to me seems to be more of creating the impression to the Washington establishment that the Moon administration wants US forces to stay in Korea while using their surrogates to make life difficult for them.  Look no further then the current THAAD site in South Korea.

Ambassador Harris recently made a very subtle message to the Moon administration in regards to sanctions on North Korea:

South Korea and the United States should have a “common voice” in dealing with North Korea rather than putting priority on improving inter-Korean relations over denuclearization, U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Harry Harris said Wednesday.

“We are, of course, cognizant of the priority that President Moon Jae-in and his administration have placed on improving South-North relations. I believe this inter-Korean dialogue must remain linked to denuclearization, and South Korea synchronized with the United States,” Harris said during a seminar co-hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and the Wilson Center.

“There, of course, remains a lot of work to be done, but I believe that if the United States and South Korea continue to approach North Korea with a common voice, we can turn the commitments that were made in Pyongyang, Panmunjeom and Singapore into reality.”

He made his remarks amid the recent dissonance between South Korea and the U.S. in dealing with easing sanction against the North. He reiterated Washington’s stance of maintaining sanctions against Pyongyang, while expressing discontent over Seoul’s move to prioritize improving inter-Korean relations and easing the sanctions.

The two countries have been showing different approaches to achieving the denuclearization of North Korea. President Moon Jae-in, on a state visit to European countries, has urge them to ease the sanctions somewhat. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been warning South Korea that lifting them, along with related actions, should only take place with Washington’s approval.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Of course the Moon administration is going to continue to say USFK will stay after the signing of any North Korean peace treaty:

As the ongoing peace gestures from North Korea cast doubt on the future of the United States Forces Korea (USFK), a group of U.S.-allied countries ― such as South Korea and Japan ― are on track to underline the need to maintain U.S. troops here.

The controversy surrounding the USFK started making headlines here in June when U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his strong desire to withdraw or at least reduce the U.S. military presence here, saying South Korea does not properly pay for its maintenance cost.

For South Korea and Japan, however, the possible withdrawal of the USFK is a worst-case scenario to weaken their security readiness and generate a potential crack in their long-term defense posture.

The USFK here has for decades served as a war deterrent, preventing North Korea from staging large-scale military provocations against the South since 1953 when the Korean War ended in an armistice.

But starting this year, North Korea has urged the South and the U.S. to declare an end to the war as soon as possible, in what critics view is the regime’s apparent move to pull out the potentially threatening U.S. troops.

For this reason, there is a lingering concern that the ongoing peace mood and the possible declaration of the technical state of war here may result in the withdrawal of the USFK in the end.

South Korea is in a position that the USFK withdrawal will never turn into reality at least for the time being.

Park Han-ki, the nominee for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said last week the potential declaration of the end to the war has nothing to do with the existence of the United Nations Command (UNC) and the USFK.

“Even if the two Koreas declare an end to the war, the Korean Armistice Agreement (signed in 1953 between the North, China and the UNC) will remain in effect,” Park said in a National Assembly confirmation hearing, dispelling concerns over the possible withdrawal of the USFK.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in also recently called the USFK a peacekeeper here, saying the U.S. troops will continue to play a role for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.  [Korea Times]

What the ROK government is saying now about USFK is intended to convince the Trump administration and US politicians to go along with signing the peace treaty.  At a time to be determined in the future the South Korean leftist activists will then be unleashed on USFK to protest every car accident, oil spill, etc. in effort to make life difficult for the US military presence in South Korea.  It will essentially be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again.

In addition to the protests the ROK could also play hardball on funding the US-ROK alliance and make environmental compensation demands over the closing of Yongsan Garrison.  The Moon administration’s goal will be to convince the Trump administration to withdraw US troops on its own accord and not at the request of the ROK government.

President Moon is pretty repeating the North Korean, Russian, and  positions on the Korean peninsula:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said a “new order” was in the making on the Korean Peninsula, with a rapidly changing diplomatic dynamic surrounding North Korea.

Remarking on an expected visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Russia and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible reciprocal visit to Pyongyang in coming weeks, Moon said a new order was being “established on the Korean Peninsula,” which he said would pave the way for setting up a new order in Northeast Asia during a cabinet meeting at the Blue House.

“Aside from the second North-U.S. summit,” he said, “North Korean leader Kim is expected to visit Russia while Xi Jinping of China is expected to make a visit to the North. A North-Japan summit is also an open possibility.

“In other words, a new order on the Korean Peninsula is being established.”

Moon went on to say that what he described as a “new order” was a must for the two Koreas to set in place a permanent peace regime and achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but the “new order” Moon is likely talking about is the confederation between North and South Korea on the Kim regime’s terms.  Also notice how he says the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”.  This is the same terms the North Koreans have been using.  South Korea does not have nuclear weapons so the term can only mean ending the US nuclear umbrella protection of South Korea and thus the end of the US-ROK alliance.

It seems it is becoming clearer and clearer that this is the ultimate end game for the Moon administration.

It will be interesting to see if the ROK government gives into Trump administration demands on the cost sharing issue in return for concessions on the North Korean issue:

South Korea and the U.S. are narrowing their differences over the cost, contract period and annual increase rate in regards to sharing the cost of stationing American troops on the Korean Peninsula.

An official from the Foreign Ministry in Seoul said Monday the two sides are negotiating thorny issues and ways to improve the system as a package for the new Special Measures Agreement set to take effect next year.

Under the current five-year contract which will expire in December, Seoul’s cost-sharing for stationing the 28-thousand-500-member U.S. Forces Korea for this year is set at around 960 billion won or 856 million dollars.

As for Washington wanting Seoul to include costs for “operational support” of deploying strategic assets from outside the peninsula against North Korean threats, the official said he can not answer whether the U.S. continues to make such demands.  [KBS World Radio]

The anti-US groups already demand US troop withdrawal, despite majority #SouthKoreans supporting the US presence. The protests would become feverish a la candlelights if the "end of war" is declared, & Moon will say the "candlelights" ordered him for the US military withdrawal. https://t.co/CFZ7Xg9uMI

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) September 27, 2018

I would not be surprised that the price for South Korea to get President Trump on board with a possible 2nd Kim-Trump Summit was to agree to change the US-ROK FTA.  Usually when it comes to changes in the FTA there is a lot of pushback from the ROK where this went pretty smooth:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the conclusion of negotiations to amend the countries’ bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on Monday, vowing efforts to implement it swiftly.

“We, the Presidents of the Republic of Korea and the United States of America, hereby reaffirm our close alliance and the importance of maintaining strong, mutually beneficial trade and economic ties between our peoples,” the leaders said in a joint statement issued at the end of their bilateral summit in New York.

“We welcome the successful conclusion of negotiations between our governments that have resulted in amendments and modifications to improve the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement,” they added.

Under the revised FTA, the U.S. will extend a 25 percent tariff on imports of South Korean pickup trucks by 20 years to 2041, while Seoul will double the number of U.S. cars not subject to its local industry regulations to 50,000.

“South Korea will double the number of American cars sold …(to) 50,000 per manufacturer of cars,” Trump said in a joint press conference.

The changes, which come at a U.S. request, were approved by the South Korean Cabinet last week. The revised FTA was signed Monday by the countries’ trade ministers. It still needs to be ratified by the countries’ legislatures.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

The Moon administration’s Defense Minister nominee is advocating for an end to the Korean War:

Defense Minister nominee Jeong Kyeong-doo said in his confirmation hearing, Monday, that the military has bolstered defense readiness ahead of the upcoming inter-Korean summit.

He also said that formally ending the Korean War should be pushed forward according to the Panmunjeom Declaration.

Jeong, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a treaty to end the war will be “a political proclamation” to pave the way for denuclearization, but this does not mean disbandment of the United Nations Command or the breakup of the South-U.S. defense alliance.

When asked about the North’s aim of seeking the end of the war for this summit, Jeong said “it was aimed at building trust between the two Koreas and North Korea and the U.S. in order to achieve the perfect denuclearization.”  [Korea Times]

General Jeong is remaining on script with the rest of the Moon administration about the future of the US-ROK alliance after any end of the Korean War.  The North Koreans, Chinese, Russians, and South Korean leftists all want US troops off of the peninsula.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

Below are excerpts from some more great analysis by Professor B.R. Myers about the state of Inter-Korean affairs and the United States.  This first excerpt shows how President Moon really feels about the US-ROK alliance:

This is in line with the remarkable discretion Moon Jae-in has sustained since the start of his election campaign. Never does he speak more guardedly than when around foreigners critical of the North. Shortly after he took office I asked two Americans who had talked with him on separate occasions what impression they had got: “well-rehearsed,” said one, “well-drilled” the other. Had he given vent to the sort of anti-American, pro-North remarks Roh Moo Hyun went in for (though Roh was conservative in comparison), his policies would have encountered more resistance.

His base knows how he really feels. During the presidential election campaign in 2012 the novelist Kong Chi-yŏng, a prominent supporter, tweeted cheerfully that the Yankee-go-home candidate Lee Jung-Hee sounded “like Moon’s inner voice.” The conservatives pounced, and she had to do a quick Prufrock: It wasn’t what she’d meant at all. Since then the Moon camp has shown remarkable discipline. Professor Moon Chung-in is an exception of sorts, since it’s his job to send up trial balloons.  [B.R. Myers]

I have long believed that President Moon is just a better polished, smarter, and more disciplined version of former President Roh Moo-hyun.  Remember Moon was Roh’s Chief of Staff during his presidency, so learned well from all of Roh’s mistakes.  This discipline and political smarts he learned has allowed Moon to sell himself as a centrist when he is in fact a leftist.

This next excerpt shows how the Moon administration plans to implement their confederation plans with North Korea:

To assume that the two Korean administrations do not already see each other as confederates, and behave accordingly, albeit discreetly, is like assuming that a man and woman planning a marriage are not yet having sex. When we ask for Moon’s help in getting the other half of the peninsula to denuclearize, we are in effect asking this fervent nationalist to help remove the future guarantor of a unified Korea’s security and autonomy. Why should he comply? The only remaining point of the US-ROK alliance is to ease the transition to a confederation — which would obviate that alliance altogether.

The recent news of South Korean violations of sanctions (and of a presidential award just given to the main importer of North Korean coal) is merely illustrative. It’s trivial in comparison to the basic truth staring us in the face: No true liberal-democratic ally of the United States would think of leaguing up with an anti-American dictatorship, let alone one still in the thrall of a personality cult. I’m not sure whether the Trump administration is unaware of this or merely pretending to be.

At any rate a peculiar pattern has repeated itself every few weeks or so since Moon took office. It goes like this. First the Blue House is caught in some statement or act of disloyalty to the spirit of the alliance — like appointing an unrepentant former enforcer of North Korean copyrights to the second most powerful post in the government. (I don’t mean the prime minister.) South Korean conservatives then shout in chorus, “The Americans won’t stand for this!” Whereupon the White House rushes to say, in effect, “Oh yes we will!” It seems to revel in making pro-American, security-minded South Koreans look foolish.  (…….)

It’s therefore easy to imagine Trump or Pompeo expressing support for whatever “peace system” Moon and Kim happen to agree on, so long as progress toward denuclearization is made first. Any significant step in that direction — which we can expect the upcoming Pyongyang summit to announce with great fanfare — would then compel the US to sign off on  confederation, thus encouraging the South Korean public to do likewise. Before we know it, the ROK could be locked in an embrace it might eventually need American help to get out of.  [B.R. Myers]

As always I highly recommend reading the whole article from Professor Myers at the link, but at some point you would think the Trump administration would start pushing back on President Moon’s pro-North Korean agenda.  Possibly the suspension of Inter-Korean railway inspections by the United Nations Command is the start of a push back?