Category: North Korea

Here is one view on why North Korea hasn’t conducted their long predicted nuclear test:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has yet to press the nuclear button, despite urgent warnings from South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities that the North has completed preparations for another nuclear test.

Diplomatic observers agree that a nuclear test is still imminent. But they believe the delay may be due to pressure from China or because Pyongyang is weighing the possible political repercussions. 

Citing comments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Eighth Workers’ Party Conference in January 2021 that his country will enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities, as well as the 31 missiles launched so far this year and the reconstruction of its nuclear test site, Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, said the reclusive country is prepared for a seventh nuclear test.

However, DeTrani said pressure from China may be behind the delayed nuclear test, because increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula with South Korea and the United States is not in the best interests of Beijing.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but it is believed that Emperor President Xi has too much on his plate right now to deal with increased tensions on the Korean peninsula if a nuclear test was to happen.

ROK Drop favorite Andrei Lankov thinks that North Korea is building their nuclear weapons program to forcefully reunite the peninsula and the Hankyoreh disagrees with this assessment:

In a recent interview with the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, Kookmin University professor Andrei Lankov said that North Korea has “had great success with focusing all its national capabilities on developing nuclear weapons and missiles.” He went on to say that North Korea’s plans for a forced reunification under communism are “not a dream, but a reality.”

As a basis for that prediction, he explained, “If the US were to fight to protect Seoul, the US president would have to consider the possibilities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, or New York suffering multiple North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strikes that cause countless casualties.” (……)

Also, how would the US react to North Korea threatening to strike its major cities with ICBMs to force it to stay out of the situation? Would it bow to those threats in order to avoid suffering its own losses?We don’t need to think too hard to find the answers. The South Korea-US alliance would respond to the North’s threat of nuclear strikes by showing their ability and willingness to retaliate forcefully. If the North actually did use tactical nuclear weapons, it would respond with massive retaliation.

Hankyoreh

You can read much more at the link, but I actually agree some what with both viewpoints. As things stand now North Korea will not use its nuclear weapons to forcibly reunite the peninsula because of the massive retaliation they would face and US missile defenses that mitigates their ICBM threats.

However this may not be the case in the future. The Kim regime has clearly been working to undermine the US-ROK alliance, most notably by pushing for the Korean War peace treaty during the prior Moon administration. If the US agreed to a peace treaty then that draws into question the existence of the US-ROK alliance. Any effort to forcibly reunite the peninsula requires the Kim regime to break up the US-ROK alliance.

They also need a credible threat to the US homeland. Right now their ICBMs cannot penetrate US missile defense defending the American continent. However, the Kim regime continues to test their ICBMs likely focusing on developing countermeasures to penetrate US missile defenses.

I there are no US troops in South Korea and North Korea has a credible nuclear threat to US cities would the US respond to threats made to the ROK? I think the answer to that question really depends on relations between the ROK and US at the time. I think it is more likely though the Kim regime will use their nuclear weapons to create a crisis to extort the ROK with.

The statement is not surprising, what is a little surprising is how long it took the Kim regime to make the statement in support of the Russians. I think this may be another indication that the Kim regime is readying for a nuclear test. They support the Russians now and the Russians will support them later in blocking sanctions in the UN Security Council after any nuclear test:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sunday expressed full support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the country’s state media reported, despite international condemnation for his invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian people have “achieved great successes in accomplishing the just cause of defending the dignity and security of their country … while braving all sorts of challenges and hardships,” Kim said in a message to Putin on the occasion of the Russia Day holiday, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. “The Korean people extend full support and encouragement to them.”

Kim’s apparent reference to the unprovoked attack against Ukraine as a “just cause” for defending Russia’s security is the latest sign that illustrates decades-old close bilateral ties between the two countries.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest provocation by North Korea as they likely try and build up tensions leading up towards their suspected nuclear test:

North Korea test-fired suspected artillery pieces into the sea on Sunday, South Korea’s military said, days after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for greater defense capability to cope with outside threats.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that it detected several flight trajectories believed to be North Korean artillery on Sunday morning. It said South Korea maintains a firm military readiness in close coordination with the United States amid boosted surveillance on North Korea.

Associated Press

You can read more at the link.

North Korea’s missile launches may get the bigger headlines, but their robust artillery is the real danger to South Korea due to the 25 million people in the Seoul region living within artillery range.

It seems to me that Kim Jong-un is setting conditions to justify a nuclear test:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for stronger “self-defense” measures to tackle “very serious” security challenges as he presided over a key ruling party session earlier this week, Pyongyang’s state media reported Saturday. 

But there was no specific message issued from the fifth enlarged plenary meeting of the party’s eighth Central Committee with regard to the possibility of the secretive regime carrying out another nuclear test. 

The North stopped short of delivering new major messages toward the United States or South Korea through the three-day high-profile session that ended Friday.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It seems logical that the Kim regime’s playbook would eventually have them build up to a nuclear test:

South Korea’s National Security Council (NSC) strongly condemned the North’s latest missile launches Sunday, saying Pyongyang will “gain nothing” from its continued saber-rattling.  
   
The remarks came shortly after the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North fired eight short-range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast. (……)

The latest missiles also came a day after Seoul and Washington completed a three-day combined naval exercise involving the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan. The exercise was held in international waters off the Japanese island of Okinawa. 

The looming question among military experts is when the regime will carry out a nuclear test.  
   
South Korean officials have for weeks floated the possibility of an imminent nuclear experiment, which would be the seventh of its kind if North Korea follows through. Officials in Seoul and Washington have mentioned recent satellite images of ongoing tunnel excavation and construction work at Punggye-ri as signs that the regime is preparing for another test.  
   
The Punggye-ri test site, located in a mountainous region in the country’s remote North Hamgyong Province, is the North’s only known nuclear test site and the location of six nuclear weapons tests between October 2006 and September 2017. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.