Category: North Korea

If North Korea quit making threats and provocations there wouldn’t be a need to conduct aerial surveillance of their country:

North Korea on Saturday accused South Korea and the United States of heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula with aerial reconnaissance activities.

In a commentary carried by the Korean Central News Agency, the North said that Seoul and Washington have been stepping up their “spying activities” this month, calling such a move a “stern provocation” against the country.

The North claimed the countries attempted to secure information on the North’s inner regions by conducting surveillance activities with the U.S. RC-135 Combat Sent and RC-135W Rivet Joint and South Korea’s advanced high-altitude unmanned aircraft Global Hawk and E-737 Peace Eye early warning aircraft.

The North said it is closely monitoring such military activities and threatened that it is ready to destroy its enemies anytime.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I don’t think the North Koreans would undertake an attributal terrorist attack against South Korea if it wanted to raise tensions. An operation similar to what they did with the Cheonan makes more sense. In that operation they sunk a ROK naval vessel and then blamed the South Koreans for sinking it themselves. The left wing useful idiots in South Korea then accused the former President Lee for sinking the Cheonan to blame North Korea. There are still useful idiots to this day in South Korea that believe this nonsense:

This photo, provided by the Korea Institute for National Unification on Feb. 14, 2024, shows the state-run think tank holding a forum on inter-Korean relations in Seoul.

North Korea may attempt to mobilize its spies or sympathizers in South Korea to stage a terrorist attack on the South in a manner similar to attacks by Islamic Jihad, an expert said Wednesday.

Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) said North Korea is expected to raise military tensions as its leader Kim Jong-un defined inter-Korean ties as relations “between two states hostile to each other” at a year-end party meeting.

“With Kim’s announcement, North Korean spies and sympathizers in South Korea could work as ‘wartime’ agents to engage in activities commensurate with a state of war,” Cho told a forum on the two Koreas’ relations.

He raised the possibility of North Korean espionage agents staging a terrorist attack in South Korea on orders from North Korea, or of South Koreans with pro-North Korean stances staging a “lone-wolf” terrorist attack.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

What they don’t know is how many of these phones are smartphones? It seems in a country with only a regime controlled intranet, a smartphone is not as useful as in other countries:

An estimated six million North Koreans have cellular phones as of 2021, a recently published report by a state-run think-tank said, indicating a wave of change among the people living under the oppressive regime.

The Korea Institute for National Unification conducted a study on how distribution of mobile phones is affecting North Koreans’ quality of life, in which they presumed that a little over 23 percent of some 25.7 million North Koreans own smartphones. The consensus was based on estimations by various research institutes and organizations.

The study said that cell phone use in the hermit kingdom rapidly has increased since 2009, which is around the time when network distribution for mobile phones started spreading among the public. According to the researchers, the number of phones using a landline is expected to be around 1.18 million, unchanged since 2008. At the same time, cellphones in North Korea outnumbered landline phones in 2011 and kept growing.

It is yet unclear how much of the mobile phones distributed in North Korea are smartphones, due to lack of related statistics. But researchers speculated that smartphones will eventually outlast any other type of mobile phone in the country, based on anecdotal evidence.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

This is a huge amount of stolen money for a country as poor as North Korea to acquire:

U.N. experts say they are investigating 58 suspected North Korean cyberattacks between 2017 and 2023 valued at approximately $3 billion, with the money reportedly being used to help fund its development of weapons of mass destruction. And the high volume of cyberattacks by North Korean hacking groups who report to the Reconnaissance General Bureau, North Korea’s primary foreign intelligence organization, is reportedly continuing, the panel of experts said in the executive summary of a new report to the U.N. Security Council obtained Friday by The Associated Press.

The report covering the period from July 2023 to January 2024 and reflecting contributions from unidentified U.N. member nations and other sources, was sent to the 15-member council as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has raised tensions in the region. He is threatening to annihilate South Korea if provoked and escalating weapons demonstrations. In response, the United States, South Korea and Japan have strengthened their combined military exercises.

Stars and Stripes

You can read more at the link.

Some expert believe all the war rhetoric directed at South Korea from Kim Jong-un may be because of pressure he is facing domestically from millenials:

The group of people who believe fear-driven barking is more convincing than the war scenario highlights North Korea’s internal factors as a source of Kim’s belligerent behavior. They argue that such behavior serves to deflect attention from domestic issues and challenges. Inside this school of thought, views are divided. Some argue that economic frustration is a key driver of North Korea’s escalating saber-rattling.

Others argue that the primary driver behind North Korea’s increasing saber-rattling is not just a food shortage but a more fundamental concern. According to this perspective, Kim Jong-un is deeply troubled by South Korea’s cultural influence, which has become widespread, especially among teenagers and millennials in their 20s and 30s. This group, often referred to as the “Jangmadang Generation,” grew up experiencing elements of capitalism through their parents’ involvement in markets to make ends meet. They believe that if not adequately controlled, this cultural influence could pose a serious threat to the regime.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but uncontrolled access to outside information has always been a major threat to the Kim regime. Keeping the North Korean people isolated and indoctrinated with only regime propaganda is a must to maintain the current system of power.

The South Korean public understands what I have been saying for years, U.S. North Korea policy is at odds with reality because North Korea is never going to give up their nuclear weapons. The best that can be done is probably a deal that limits the amount of nuclear weapons they have and possibly eliminated their ICBM program:

Nine out of ten South Koreans are skeptical about the possibility of North Korea abandoning its nuclear program, a survey showed Monday, as the reclusive country continues to advance its nuclear weapons and missile programs.

According to the Gallup Korea poll of 1,043 adults, commissioned by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies, 91 percent replied that the North’s denuclearization was “impossible.”

Of them, 41.4 percent considered denuclearization to be “not possible at all,” while 49.7 percent said it was not possible.

In last year’s poll, 77.6 percent of the respondents said they believed North’s denuclearization was impossible.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Could North Korea come up with any more adjectives to describe their cruise missile?:

North Korea said Saturday it conducted what it calls a “cruise missile super-large warhead power test” and test-fired a new type of anti-aircraft missile the previous day.

The tests in the Yellow Sea were carried out for the “rapid development of the technologies in various aspects, such as function, performance and operation of new-type weapon systems” and were part of “normal activities,” the North’s Missile Administration said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

It did not give further details, such as how many missiles were launched or how far they flew.

Photos released by the KCNA showed a cruise missile flying at a low altitude, striking a building and exploding.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

With elections in South Korea and the United States coming up this year there is little incentive for North Korea to behave and return to talks:

This photo, taken on Jan. 18, 2024, shows U.S. Senior Official for North Korea Jung Pak attending a trilateral meeting with her South Korea and Japanese counterparts at the foreign ministry in Seoul. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

The United States has not detected indications of “direct” North Korean military action, its top nuclear envoy has said, pledging to make “relentless” efforts to deter and constrain evolving threats from the recalcitrant regime.

In an online interview with Yonhap News Agency on Friday, U.S. Senior Official for North Korea Jung Pak made the remarks as the North’s pugnacious rhetoric and its continued weapons tests have deepened worries about the possibility of major provocations by the North and even of an armed clash on the Korean Peninsula.

Despite an escalation of threats, the envoy expressed her hopes for Pyongyang to further reopen its border to pave the way for diplomacy, while stressing Washington’s “sincerity” in its repeated yet unanswered dialogue overtures.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This would be a big development if true, however with the decrepit state of its submarine fleet it is doubtful this is a real functional wartime capability for the Kim regime:

This photo, carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 29, 2024, shows the North’s firing of submarine-launched cruise missiles the previous day.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has overseen the test-fire of submarine-launched cruise missiles and reviewed a project to build a nuclear-powered submarine, state media reported Monday.

The new Pulhwasal-3-31 strategic cruise missile precisely hit an island target after flying over the East Sea for 7,421 seconds and 7,445 seconds, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, suggesting the test involved two missiles.

The flight time translates to two hours, three minutes and 41 seconds, and two hours, four minutes and five seconds, respectively. The KCNA did not give further details, including whether the missiles were launched from a submarine or a barge and how far they flew.

Yonhap

Kim Jong-un made sure to throw in the word “nuclear” to get the media’s attention:

Kim stressed Sunday that “the nuclear weaponization of the navy is an urgent task of the times and a core requirement for building the state nuclear strategic force,” the KCNA said.

“He set forth the important tasks arising in realizing the nuclear weaponization of the navy and expanding the sphere of operation of the state nuclear deterrence in a diversified way,” it said.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday it is weighing the possibility that North Korea might have “exaggerated” information on the missile’s flight time, adding that it is analyzing details of the launch platform.

The latest launch came as North Korea has been diversifying missile launch platforms to deliver nuclear weapons in a bid to bolster its capabilities to stage a surprise attack and evade the existing missile defense system.

You can read more at the link, but the ROK is probably right that this test is exagerated. However, it is clear what they are working towards because a submarine with cruise missiles would pose a challenge to missile defenses because you don’t know where it is to direct your missile defense radars against.