My rule of thumb is that anything the Kim regime is against must be a good thing for South Korea or the US. In this case the acquisition of the F-35A by the ROK military must be good thing considering the reaction:
North Korea blasted the South Korean military on Sunday for acting against the conciliatory mood developing on the Korean Peninsula, saying that the South is engaging in military maneuvers against Pyongyang.
The North criticized South Korea’s decision to deploy F-35A stealth jets and moves to buy more long-range air-to-ground missiles as part of a bid to strengthen weapons systems.
The military is scheduled to formally unveil the first F-35A stealth fighter aircraft for its military in a rollout ceremony this week. Seoul’s arms agency said it signed in February a purchase deal for 90 more Taurus bunker-buster missiles.
“(Such announcements) are open provocations against the negotiating party and a dangerous move that runs counter to the current mood for reconciliation and unity that the two Koreas had not witnessed in a long time,” said a commentary carried by the North’s ruling party newspaper, Rodong Sinmun. [Yonhap]
"Many defectors I met, they hardly sleep. They're putting in more time and energy to earn money so they won't be too behind," documentary filmmaker Steve Choi said. https://t.co/8IZucaJuJl
If the US-North Korea summit is held at Panmunjom it would make sense to have President Moon attend as well:
President Moon Jae-in said Wednesday that North Korea’s separate summits with the South and the U.S. could possibly lead to a three-way meeting of the countries.
Moon said, “Depending on the venue, the summits may be more dramatic. Depending on the circumstances, they could lead to a three-way summit between North and South Korea and the U.S.”
He made the remarks at the summit preparation committee’s second meeting at Cheong Wa Dae.
The inter-Korean summit will take place at the truce village of Panmunjeom in late April. The venue for the Pyongyang-Washington summit has not yet been decided, but Panmunjeom is one feasible candidate. Moon was implying if the summit was held there, South Korea could join without much difficulty, enabling a three-way meeting.
“Through the upcoming summits and those that will follow, we must put an end to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula,” the President said. [Korea Times]
Even if Kim Jong-un supposedly gave his word to seek denuclearization he could still very easily blame the ROK and the US for some made up reason to scrap any denuclearization deal that is made:
This AP file photo shows South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha. (Yonhap)
South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha expressed confidence in North Korea’s commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons program, saying the regime’s leader gave “his word.”
This month North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conveyed in a verbal message to U.S. President Donald Trump that he is committed to denuclearization and would stop all nuclear and missile tests. He also invited Trump to a summit, and the U.S. president accepted the offer.
“He has given his word,” Kang told U.S. broadcaster CBS in an interview filmed Saturday and aired Sunday. “But the significance of his word is quite weighty in the sense that this is the first time that the words came directly from the North Korean supreme leader himself. And that has never been done before.” [Yonhap]
That is what Oh Young-jin from the Korea Times thinks:
If there could be lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula after two summits by the end of May, all three protagonists ― President Moon Jae-in, U.S. President Donald Trump and, yes, North Korea’s young dictator Kim Jong-un ― would deserve a piece of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.
True, we would have moral reservations about giving them the award.
Receiving the greatest objections would be Kim, the grandson of the North’s founder, Kim Il-sung, who led a southern invasion at the start of the 1950-53 Korean War. The third-generation dictator in the anachronistic dynasty has demonstrated his disdain for human rights, with gulags, cold-blooded purges and mass killings.
The thirty-something allegedly ordered his agents smear a deadly chemical on the face of his elder brother-in-exile at a busy international airport.
He also had his uncle mowed down by fire from anti-aircraft guns. His father, Kim Jong-il, masterminded numerous terrorist acts, including blowing up a South Korean airliner. Under his watch, and toward the end of his life, the North staged a torpedo attack on the frigate Cheonan, killing 46 South Korean sailors. [Korea Times]
Notice that Oh Young-jin couldn’t write an article without showing his hatred of President Trump:
In Trump’s case, the list of reasons for his disqualification is long, pointing to him being an elected dictator. These include allegedly getting help from an enemy state, Russia, in the election, suppressing freedom of expression, and going back on key international agreements such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal. And he is openly looking down on and antagonizing Muslims at the risk of triggering a clash.
He treats women like sexual playthings. Why he is not on the #MeToo list is a mystery, although it is not entirely inexplicable. Giving him the Nobel Peace Prize is like endorsing Trump’s misogyny and misanthropy.
Trump is an elected dictator? If Trump is an elected dictator then how come Hillary Clinton isn’t being indicted or jailed right now like the Korean left has done to their political opponents? Even more ridiculous is to state President Trump has suppressed freedom of expression. The vast majority of major news networks and newspapers air and publish anti-Trump propaganda against him every day without being shutdown. Protests against President Trump occur regularly without police beating them down. President Trump arguably may be considered a lot of other things, but he is no dictator.
Anyway lets get back at the topic at hand, in my opinion Kim Jong-un should not receive a Nobel Peace Prize because his regime is the one that has created the conflict. If Kim Jong-un receives a Nobel Peace Prize then they should have awarded one to his grandfather Kim Il-sung and Chinese leader Mao Zedong for negotiating an end to the Korean War; which was a war they started.
Judging by past history the odds are that the South Korean businesses involved with these joint projects will lose out on their investments, but I guess they are hoping things will be different this time:
South Korea is considering a resumption of economic projects with North Korea, but officials are choosing their words carefully since Pyongyang is still subject to international sanctions and the U.S. is still insisting on “maximum pressure.”
With detente seemingly setting in on the peninsula, Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon hinted that the ministry has some plans for economic cooperation with the North. “I think of the issue, but it is not appropriate to [speak] about this now because the president asked us to deal with North Korean affairs very carefully, like handling a fragile glass cup,” Kim told reporters.
Seoul appears concerned about crossing lines set by the United Nations. Most recently, in December, a Security Council resolution limited the supply of crude oil and refined petroleum products to the North, while also banning the country from exporting its food and agricultural products.
But there are also rumblings that South Korea and its state enterprises are eyeing joint projects. Local media reported on Thursday that state-run Korea Expressway Corp. wants to build a highway connecting the South Korean border city of Munsan and Kaesong, a North Korean border city where the neighbors ran a joint industrial complex until 2016. [Nikkei Asian Review]
The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal. However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:
In this photo released by the North’s Korean Central News Agency, President Moon Jae-in’s special envoy Chung Eui-yong, center left, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on Monday. Kim is holding a letter from Moon delivered by Chung. Behind Kim is his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong. [YONHAP]South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.
Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.
President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.
“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.
“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.” [Korea Times]
It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year. They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:
North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.
“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.
The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.
“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.
Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics. [Korea Times]
We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons. Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility. What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it. Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects. As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.
To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:
“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional. I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure. This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea. This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.
With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea. Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US. Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.
This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return. All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have. If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.
This is all laying the groundwork for when the Inter-Korean Summit will eventually happen:
This photo, provided by South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae, shows Kim Yong-chol (L), North Korea’s point man on South Korea, holding a meeting with special envoys of South Korean President Moon Jae-in at a Pyongyang Hotel on March 5, 2018. (Yonhap)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hosted a welcome dinner for South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys on Monday, Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said.
“Chairman Kim Jong-un is currently hosting a dinner for the special envoys,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a press briefing.
It is the first time the reclusive North Korean leader has met South Korean officials. The dinner began at 6 p.m.
Kim’s meeting with the South Korean envoys apparently reflected his willingness to improve his country’s ties with the South.
Moon and his aides have repeatedly highlighted the importance of talks between the U.S. and North Korea for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and have also noted that the trip by Moon’s special envoys was partly aimed at arranging such dialogue.
“I plan to hold in-depth discussions on various ways to continue talks between not only the South and the North, but also the North and the United States and the international community,” Chung Eui-yong, Moon’s chief envoy and head of the presidential National Security Office, said shortly before his departure for Pyongyang. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but who is Chung Eui-yong? He is a career diplomat that from 2001-2004 during the liberal Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations served as South Korea’s UN ambassador. He would then get elected as a legislator for the same party that President Moon is in. So obviously Choi and Moon and been around each other a long time and Choi is someone that Moon trusts to represent his interests with the North Koreans.
That is what a professor from Hankuk University believes:
Professor Kim Jang-ho from Hankuk University believes that for this reason, the detente won’t last. He is also sceptical of President Moon’s motives and doesn’t believe there has been any breakthrough with North Korea.
“President Moon is trying to buy some time so that he can achieve a summit meeting with Kim Jong-un.
“Our president wants to meet him to symbolically say that North Korea is a normal nation and they are capable of talking. It automatically propels him to the list for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the US and Japan will pressure us to go ahead with military exercises as soon as possible, late April maybe.
“I think certainly with those exercises continuing, and they will go ahead definitely before May, we will go from the thaw to tension all over again.”
Many doubt North Korea’s willingness to discuss getting rid of its nuclear weapons with the US. Kim Jong-un has tried to reassure Seoul by saying his missiles are not pointing at South Koreans, they’re pointing instead at the “US aggressors”, and that they could be used to protect all of Korea.
I put it to Professor Bong Young-shik that North Korea would never give up its missiles. The research fellow at Yonsei University disagreed.
“The North Korean regime’s ultimate goal is survival and security,” the expert in North Korea said. [BBC]
You can read more at the link, but before anyone considers President Moon for a Nobel Peace Prize they should realize that when he was the Chief of Staff for former President Roh Moo-hyun, they helped to funnel billions of dollars in aid that allowed the Kim regime to build their nuclear weapons and ICBMs.
You would think though that after the embarrassment of awarding a Nobel Peace Prize to former ROK President Kim Dae-jung the Nobel committee would be weary of awarding one to another ROK president. This is because it was later discovered that the Inter-Korean Summit between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il was only possible after North Korea received a $500 million dollar bribe.
