Category: Inter-Korean Issues

If the US-North Korea summit is held at Panmunjom it would make sense to have President Moon attend as well:

President Moon Jae-in said Wednesday that North Korea’s separate summits with the South and the U.S. could possibly lead to a three-way meeting of the countries.

Moon said, “Depending on the venue, the summits may be more dramatic. Depending on the circumstances, they could lead to a three-way summit between North and South Korea and the U.S.”

He made the remarks at the summit preparation committee’s second meeting at Cheong Wa Dae.

The inter-Korean summit will take place at the truce village of Panmunjeom in late April. The venue for the Pyongyang-Washington summit has not yet been decided, but Panmunjeom is one feasible candidate. Moon was implying if the summit was held there, South Korea could join without much difficulty, enabling a three-way meeting.

“Through the upcoming summits and those that will follow, we must put an end to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula,” the President said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Even if Kim Jong-un supposedly gave his word to seek denuclearization he could still very easily blame the ROK and the US for some made up reason to scrap any denuclearization deal that is made:

South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha expressed confidence in North Korea’s commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons program, saying the regime’s leader gave “his word.”

This month North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conveyed in a verbal message to U.S. President Donald Trump that he is committed to denuclearization and would stop all nuclear and missile tests. He also invited Trump to a summit, and the U.S. president accepted the offer.

“He has given his word,” Kang told U.S. broadcaster CBS in an interview filmed Saturday and aired Sunday. “But the significance of his word is quite weighty in the sense that this is the first time that the words came directly from the North Korean supreme leader himself. And that has never been done before.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

That is what Oh Young-jin from the Korea Times thinks:

If there could be lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula after two summits by the end of May, all three protagonists ― President Moon Jae-in, U.S. President Donald Trump and, yes, North Korea’s young dictator Kim Jong-un ― would deserve a piece of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

True, we would have moral reservations about giving them the award.

Receiving the greatest objections would be Kim, the grandson of the North’s founder, Kim Il-sung, who led a southern invasion at the start of the 1950-53 Korean War. The third-generation dictator in the anachronistic dynasty has demonstrated his disdain for human rights, with gulags, cold-blooded purges and mass killings.

The thirty-something allegedly ordered his agents smear a deadly chemical on the face of his elder brother-in-exile at a busy international airport.

He also had his uncle mowed down by fire from anti-aircraft guns. His father, Kim Jong-il, masterminded numerous terrorist acts, including blowing up a South Korean airliner. Under his watch, and toward the end of his life, the North staged a torpedo attack on the frigate Cheonan, killing 46 South Korean sailors.  [Korea Times]

Notice that Oh Young-jin couldn’t write an article without showing his hatred of President Trump:

In Trump’s case, the list of reasons for his disqualification is long, pointing to him being an elected dictator. These include allegedly getting help from an enemy state, Russia, in the election, suppressing freedom of expression, and going back on key international agreements such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal. And he is openly looking down on and antagonizing Muslims at the risk of triggering a clash.

He treats women like sexual playthings. Why he is not on the #MeToo list is a mystery, although it is not entirely inexplicable. Giving him the Nobel Peace Prize is like endorsing Trump’s misogyny and misanthropy.

Trump is an elected dictator?  If Trump is an elected dictator then how come Hillary Clinton isn’t being indicted or jailed right now like the Korean left has done to their political opponents?  Even more ridiculous is to state President Trump has suppressed freedom of expression.  The vast majority of major news networks and newspapers air and publish anti-Trump propaganda against him every day without being shutdown.  Protests against President Trump occur regularly without police beating them down.  President Trump arguably may be considered a lot of other things, but he is no dictator.

Anyway lets get back at the topic at hand, in my opinion Kim Jong-un should not receive a Nobel Peace Prize because his regime is the one that has created the conflict.  If Kim Jong-un receives a Nobel Peace Prize then they should have awarded one to his grandfather Kim Il-sung and Chinese leader Mao Zedong for negotiating an end to the Korean War; which was a war they started.

Judging by past history the odds are that the South Korean businesses involved with these joint projects will lose out on their investments, but I guess they are hoping things will be different this time:

South Korea is considering a resumption of economic projects with North Korea, but officials are choosing their words carefully since Pyongyang is still subject to international sanctions and the U.S. is still insisting on “maximum pressure.”

With detente seemingly setting in on the peninsula, Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon hinted that the ministry has some plans for economic cooperation with the North. “I think of the issue, but it is not appropriate to [speak] about this now because the president asked us to deal with North Korean affairs very carefully, like handling a fragile glass cup,” Kim told reporters.

Seoul appears concerned about crossing lines set by the United Nations. Most recently, in December, a Security Council resolution limited the supply of crude oil and refined petroleum products to the North, while also banning the country from exporting its food and agricultural products.

But there are also rumblings that South Korea and its state enterprises are eyeing joint projects. Local media reported on Thursday that state-run Korea Expressway Corp. wants to build a highway connecting the South Korean border city of Munsan and Kaesong, a North Korean border city where the neighbors ran a joint industrial complex until 2016.  [Nikkei Asian Review]

You can read more at the link.

The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal.  However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:

South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.

Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.

President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.

“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.

“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.”  [Korea Times]

It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year.  They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:

North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.

“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.

The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.

“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.

Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics.  [Korea Times]

We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons.  Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility.  What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it.  Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects.  As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.

To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:

“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional.  I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure.  This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea.   This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.

With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea.  Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US.  Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.

This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return.  All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have.  If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.

This is all laying the groundwork for when the Inter-Korean Summit will eventually happen:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hosted a welcome dinner for South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys on Monday, Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said.

“Chairman Kim Jong-un is currently hosting a dinner for the special envoys,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a press briefing.

It is the first time the reclusive North Korean leader has met South Korean officials. The dinner began at 6 p.m.

Kim’s meeting with the South Korean envoys apparently reflected his willingness to improve his country’s ties with the South.

Moon and his aides have repeatedly highlighted the importance of talks between the U.S. and North Korea for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and have also noted that the trip by Moon’s special envoys was partly aimed at arranging such dialogue.

“I plan to hold in-depth discussions on various ways to continue talks between not only the South and the North, but also the North and the United States and the international community,” Chung Eui-yong, Moon’s chief envoy and head of the presidential National Security Office, said shortly before his departure for Pyongyang.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but who is Chung Eui-yong?  He is a career diplomat that from 2001-2004 during the liberal Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations served as South Korea’s UN ambassador.  He would then get elected as a legislator for the same party that President Moon is in.  So obviously Choi and Moon and been around each other a long time and Choi is someone that Moon trusts to represent his interests with the North Koreans.

That is what a professor from Hankuk University believes:

Professor Kim Jang-ho from Hankuk University believes that for this reason, the detente won’t last. He is also sceptical of President Moon’s motives and doesn’t believe there has been any breakthrough with North Korea.

“President Moon is trying to buy some time so that he can achieve a summit meeting with Kim Jong-un.

“Our president wants to meet him to symbolically say that North Korea is a normal nation and they are capable of talking. It automatically propels him to the list for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the US and Japan will pressure us to go ahead with military exercises as soon as possible, late April maybe.

“I think certainly with those exercises continuing, and they will go ahead definitely before May, we will go from the thaw to tension all over again.”

Many doubt North Korea’s willingness to discuss getting rid of its nuclear weapons with the US. Kim Jong-un has tried to reassure Seoul by saying his missiles are not pointing at South Koreans, they’re pointing instead at the “US aggressors”, and that they could be used to protect all of Korea.

I put it to Professor Bong Young-shik that North Korea would never give up its missiles. The research fellow at Yonsei University disagreed.

“The North Korean regime’s ultimate goal is survival and security,” the expert in North Korea said.  [BBC]

You can read more at the link, but before anyone considers President Moon for a Nobel Peace Prize they should realize that when he was the Chief of Staff for former President Roh Moo-hyun, they helped to funnel billions of dollars in aid that allowed the Kim regime to build their nuclear weapons and ICBMs.

You would think though that after the embarrassment of awarding a Nobel Peace Prize to former ROK President Kim Dae-jung the Nobel committee would be weary of awarding one to another ROK president.  This is because it was later discovered that the Inter-Korean Summit between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il was only possible after North Korea received a $500 million dollar bribe.

Via a reader tip come this article that explains how South Korean protesters tried to block the bridge taking the North Korean delegation back to North Korea:

Protesters attempted to block vehicles carrying a controversial North Korean delegation to the closing ceremony of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games as they crossed the Demilitarised Zone into South Korea on Sunday morning.

Around 100 conservative politicians and activists staged a sit-in demonstration at the Tongil Bridge, according to local broadcaster YTN, accusing the delegation’s leader of being behind a deadly 2010 attack on a South Korean warship.

South Korean authorities deployed more than 2.500 police officers to control the protests. To avoid a clash, the motorcade took an alternative route via Jeonjin bridge, which is a military crossing, according to the Chosun Ilbo.  [The Times]

You can read more at the link, but I hope General Brooks gets on the phone and asks President Moon that if he can open a road for the murderer of 46 ROK sailors, if he can also open the road to the THAAD site?

It is pretty clear that the Kim regime sent Kim Yong-chol as part of the South Korean delegation to rub the Cheonan attack in the face of South Korea’s conservatives:

Political parties collided Monday over a controversial visit to Seoul by a North Korean official who is accused of masterminding deadly military attacks in 2010.

The main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) staged a massive rally in central Seoul berating the liberal government for embracing Kim Yong-chol as the chief of the North’s delegation to the closing ceremony of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics despite his alleged role in the two attacks.

Kim, a vice chairman of the Central Committee of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, has been accused of leading the torpedo attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan and the bombardment of the border island of Yeonpyeong. The attacks killed a total of 50 South Koreans.

“We will fight until the end against the Moon Jae-in government that has pressed ahead with its decision to allow the visit by Kim Yong-chol despite public concerns and objections,” Kim Sung-tae, the LKP floor leader, said during the rally.

“The raison d’etre of our party is to protect the free democracy system here,” he added.

Describing Kim as a “murderer” and “war criminal,” conservatives here had called for the cancellation of Kim’s three-day visit to the South.

They argue that the visit by Kim — who is under a set of local and international sanctions — will help the North’s “deceptive peace offensive” to weaken the current sanctions regime, sow discord among South Koreans and drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but this would be like a US President giving the red carpet treatment to the mastermind of the USS Cole bombing.  Instead the US gave him Gitmo.  That is the treatment Kim Yong-chol deserves, not VIP treatment at the Walker Hill Hotel.

The North Koreans are likely offering to hold talks now to get what they can get out of negotiations and then set conditions for their next provocation cycle:

A senior North Korean official said Monday that the reclusive state is willing to hold talks with the United States, noting the door for dialogue between the two countries remains open, according to an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.

The remarks from Kim Yong-chol, the North’s point man on South Korea, came in a meeting with Chung Eui-yong, chief of South Korea’s National Security Council and the top security advisor to President Moon Jae-in.

“Kim said the door remains open for dialogue with the United States. He said the North has also repeatedly expressed such a stance,” a ranking Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters, while speaking on condition of anonymity.

Kim’s remarks came one day after he told the South Korean president in a meeting that the North has enough willingness to hold bilateral talks with the United States.

He, however, attached no conditions for the talks, according to the presidential official.

The U.S. seemed to remain cautious, with White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders saying Washington will first see if Kim’s remarks represented the North’s first step toward denuclearization.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime has no intention of denuclearizing which means the talks will likely go no where.  However, before the talks go no where the Kim regime will try to get concessions out of the ROK.  The Moon administration is already floating the idea of suspending joint military exercises and economic aid for them suspending their nuclear and missile programs:

Moon has promoted a two-step roadmap to end the security crisis prompted by the North’s nuclear threats. According to his proposed first step, the North must place a moratorium on its nuclear and missile tests, freeze any further development of the technologies and join denuclearization negotiations. In return, the international community was to offer corresponding compensations. The second step would be actual nuclear dismantlement.

Moon, however, never made clear what Seoul and Washington would offer to Pyongyang in return for the first step, a freeze. Suspending or downsizing joint military exercises by South Korea and the United States has been discussed as a possible option, as well as an economic assistance package for the impoverished economy of the North.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

So basically the Kim regime gets significant concessions for doing nothing.  The economic assistance will likely include the reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the restarting of Mt. Kumgang tours, and the opening of the Masik Ski Resort to tourism.  This would essentially shred all the sanctions that the US has been trying to leverage against the ROK.  That is why we will likely see a renewed push for a “freeze deal” in the coming weeks and months.

After the Kim regime gets all they can out of talks they will then restart their nuclear and missile programs and blame “US hostility” or some other made up reason.  Their leftist supporters will of course all fall in line with the narrative.  We have seen this all play out before.  Any freeze deal they sign the Kim regime will find a way to cheat on it.  I fully expect they will continue with short and intermediate range ballistic missile testing claiming this is okay because they are not ICBMs.  I suspect they will use space launches to test their ICBM technology and claim it is for peaceful purposes.  They have done this before.

They will also likely continue efforts to miniaturize their nuclear technology to put on ICBM warheads.  Without inspections this will be easy for them to conceal.  Even if they get called out for cheating they will just deny it and their apologists will come out in force to support them.  Supporters of past nuclear deals kept claiming that North Korea was in compliance despite clear evidence they were not.

It will be interesting to see which direction the Trump administration wants to go.  If they want to kick this can down the road to deal with later, the freeze deal is a way to do it.