Category: Inter-Korean Issues

South Korea Wants to Upgrade North Korea’s Infrastructure, Will They Wait for Denuclearization First?

Here is already possibly billions in investment dollars to upgrade North Korea’s infrastructure for the little to nothing the Kim regime has tangibly offered in return:

In this photo taken on April 27, 2018, a man takes a photo of a bulletin that reads “The Steelhorse Wants to Run!” at a train stop no longer in use in a city of Gangwon Province near the border with North Korea. (Yonhap)

The historic inter-Korean summit is raising hopes for cooperation on social overhead capital (SOC) projects as the leaders of South and North Korea agreed on Friday to link cross-border roads and railways.

In the joint statement released by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after their summit, the two Koreas agreed to push forward the SOC projects agreed upon by late South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2007 for balanced growth and joint prosperity on the Korean Peninsula.

As part of the first step, Seoul and Pyongyang agreed to connect cross-border roads and railways and upgrade the existing infrastructure, the two sides said.

The plan includes taking practical steps to utilize the Gyeongui railway, which links Shinuiju, a city on the Korean Peninsula’s border with China, and Seoul.

During the summit talks, Moon said if the railroad is connected with the North, both South and North Korea can make use of trains in the future. Kim praised the quality of the railway that connects Seoul and PyeongChang, the site of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in February.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

South Korea Proposes Establishing Joint Fishing Zones on the NLL with North Korea

It looks like the Moon administration is about to surrender sovereignty of their side of the NLL to the Kim regime:

This map shows the West Sea peace-cooperation special zones proposed by South Korea at the 2007 inter-Korean summit. (Yonhap)

The leaders of South and North Korea agreed Friday to establish a peace and cooperation zone on their disputed western sea border, a move that could prevent future clashes.

The disputed sea demarcation line, which Seoul has enforced, has been the scene of two deadly naval clashes between the two Koreas since 1999.

On Friday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held a historic summit at the border village of Panmunjom and agreed to turn the area into a special region that can be used safety by both sides.

The agreement could also potentially allow South and North Korean fishermen to jointly operate their boats in the area while allowing maritime authorities crack down on illegal Chinese fishing.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but this is the same area where repeated attacks by the North Koreans have been executed against the ROK.  In effort to appease North Korean aggression, the Moon administration is proposing giving up sovereignty of South Korean territory to the North Koreans to fish.

So why do the North Koreans want the NLL changed?  Well this map shows why:

The current NLL is depicted with the Blue line and North Korea’s claimed NLL is depicted with the Red line.

The prior proposed joint fishing areas on the NLL nearly mirror what North Korea claims to be their ocean waters.  The giving up of sovereignty of this maritime territory will make it harder to defend the South Korean islands along the NLL.  Such an agreement would also set a precedent that the Kim regime’s claim against the legitimacy of the NLL is valid.  The last time a South Korean leftist government tried to give away the NLL the ROK Defense Ministry was furious.  It will be interesting to see how they respond this time to this news.

Is Kim Jong-un Playing South Korea and the United States as Fools?

There is a good read posted over at Foreign Policy by Michael Green from the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that explains very well the concerns I have been sharing about this supposed peace initiative being executed by North Korea:

Michael Green

South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s televised summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday was spectacularly effective as pageantry aimed at South Koreans fearful of a U.S. attack on North Korea — and spectacularly empty in terms of meaningful commitment by the North to denuclearization. In fact, everything Kim put on the table was designed to reaffirm North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapons state and dilute Chinese and South Korean support for sanctions. Many veterans of negotiations with North Korea worry that Kim is now getting ready to play the United States. While the Trump administration’s tough sanctions no doubt had some role in pushing the North toward this summitry, one can also imagine exactly how this was a scenario the North itself sought from the beginning.  [Foreign Policy]

Green then goes on to write a satire email from Vice Marshall Kim Jong Gak, director of the Political Bureau, Korean People’s Army to Kim Jong-un on their peace strategy.  Here is an excerpt from the email:

You will pledge seemingly historic commitments that are all unverifiable and easily reversed, many of which we have deployed successfully in past negotiations. These include your commitment (like your father’s and grandfather’s) to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, your pledge to join the global quest for denuclearization as the other nuclear weapons states have pledged to do under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a promise not to transfer nuclear weapons to third parties, a no-first use pledge, and a promise to halt testing and to shut down our nuclear test site at Punggye-ri (for added drama, you might invite inspectors to the facility).

These commitments all parrot the aspirations of the current members of the nuclear weapons club and will thus confirm our membership in that club as we negotiate arms control with the Americans as a fellow nuclear weapons state. We, of course, made no commitment to cease production and deployment of our deterrent. We can easily reverse all these steps later, at the time of our choosing, yet already many in the imperialist and puppet media are proclaiming these meaningless declarations on your part to be a historic breakthrough.

I recommend reading the whole thing at the link, but as I have been saying since this whole peace initiative began, the Kim regime was conducting a facade.  The North Koreans are very good at executing facades and Kim Jong-un has shown a particularly great talent for it, so much so that he has most in the international media believing every word he is saying.

The short term goal of this facade is to create a perception of progress towards peace and denuclearization on the peninsula to justify South Korea reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park, restarting joint tourism projects, and other inter-Korean cooperation initiatives that will be huge cash cows for the Kim regime.  In return the Kim regime will pretend to denuclearize and make other commitments that can easily be reversed at a time of their choosing.

The Kim regime’s long term goal backed by China is to get the United States out of South Korea.  That is why there has been such a strategic messaging emphasis on a peace treaty to end the Korean War.  If there is a peace treaty South Korean leftists could argue why US forces are still needed in South Korea?  The Kim regime’s even longer term goal is to separate the US from Japan as well with their surrogates in the media already pushing ideas of removing the US nuclear umbrella for Japan as part of any denuclearization agreement.

The wild card in all of this is President Donald Trump.  South Korea, China, Russia, and most in the international community are willing to pretend denuclearization and a lasting peace is happening.  Will the United States? For all we know President Trump could be conducting his own facade.  For the US to get international consensus to conduct any strike against North Korea all options will have to be exhausted.  Since this supposed peace process has began President Trump has been saying all the right things and being very reasonable even agreeing to meet with Kim Jong-un.

Going into the negotiations President Trump could be very solid about stringent inspections to ensure denuclearization compliance.  If the Kim regime does not agree to stringent inspections or agrees and then plays their old tricks against inspectors than President Trump could have his rationale to strike North Korea.  Or maybe President Trump is willing to go along with the facade to get a Nobel Peace Prize like his rival Barack Obama did and then let some other future US president deal with the consequences when Pyongyang ultimately reneges on the deal. Time will tell but the next 1-2 years should continue to be interesting times on the peninsula as everyone involved continues to play their role in this great facade.

Round Up of Korean News Reports on the Inter-Korean Summit Between Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in

Yonhap news is focusing on how Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in are getting along quite well:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (R) shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un before their summit at the House of Peace, a South Korea-controlled building in the border truce village of Panmunjom on April 27, 2018. (Yonhap)

Off-topic ramblings, jests and quips during the historic encounter between the leaders of the two Koreas on Friday highlighted their growing rapport despite the security-heavy summit agenda.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un met for the third inter-Korean summit at the border truce village of Panmunjom at a time when their close bond is critical in charting a path for a lasting peace on the divided peninsula.

“When will I be able to go over (to the North)?” Moon said when he first met Kim near the Military Demarcation Line, with a throng of reporters jockeying to capture their greetings before their summit south of the inter-Korean border.

Kim, in turn, made a surprise proposal for the South Korean leader to walk into the North across the military demarcation line, a 50-centimeter-wide strip inside the Demilitarized Zone that has separated the peninsula since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

Ice-breaking confabulations continued during their official tete-a-tete, where sensitive issues such as the communist state’s denuclearization and the establishment of a peace regime were up for discussion.

“I heard that you had tossed and turned early in the morning as you had to participate in National Security Council sessions … You should be accustomed to waking up early (by now),” Kim said, half in jest.

The young leader was referring to a series of top-level security talks Moon held last year with his security and foreign policy aides to discuss responses to Pyongyang’s unrelenting provocations, including the sixth and most powerful nuclear test in September last year.  [Yonhap]

Here is a bit of a surprising admission by Kim Jong-un:

When Moon mentioned his wish to travel to Mount Baekdu via the North, Kim said he is worried about the traffic inconvenience in the North that Moon might experience — a rare admission of his country’s poor infrastructure.

“The high-speed train (in the South) appeared to be good … When you come to the North after living in such a condition, I may feel embarrassed (because of the inconveniences),” Kim said.  [Yonhap]

The Korea Times is reporting that Kim Jong-un has offered to visit Cheongwadae in Seoul:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he was willing to visit Cheong Wa Dae anytime if President Moon Jae-in invites him, during their summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom, Friday.

He also proposed the two leaders meet more often.

When the two leaders inspected a South Korean traditional honor guard before starting the bilateral talks, Moon told Kim that the ceremony was scaled down because of the limited space in the truce village, chief presidential press secretary Yoon Young-chan said in a media briefing after the first round of talks in the morning.

“Moon told Kim that if he came to Cheong Wa Dae, he could show him a much better ceremony. Then Kim said, ‘Is that so? I would come anytime if you invite me,'” according to Yoon.   [Korea Times]

The Joong Ang Ilbo has a  report about the entourage that traveled to Panmunjom with Kim Jong-un:

Nine key aides of Kim Jong-un will accompany the North Korean leader when he crosses the border today for a first-ever summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The delegation is a wide-ranging entourage of party loyalists, cabinet members and military officers that reflects Kim’s ambition to discuss multiple issues related to his country’s long-strained ties with South Korea.

Im Jong-seok, Moon’s chief of staff, told reporters on Thursday at the summit’s main press center in Goyang, Gyeonggi, that Kim Jong-un’s delegation would include Kim Yong-nam, the nominal head of state who serves as president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s rubber-stamp legislature; and Kim Yong-chol, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party and director of the committee’s United Front Department.

Other high-ranking party members include Choe Hwi, vice chairman of the Central Committee who chairs the State Physical Culture and Sports Guidance Commission within the North’s powerful State Affairs Commission; Ri Su-yong, vice chairman of the Central Committee and director of the committee’s International Department, which handles foreign affairs; and Kim Yo-jong, first vice director of the Central Committee’s Propaganda and Agitation Department and Kim Jong-un’s younger sister.

Military officials include Ri Myong-su, chief of the Korean People’s Army’s General Staff, the equivalent of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Pak Yong-sik, minister of the people’s armed forces, who plays the role of defense minister.

Other cabinet members include Ri Yong-ho, minister of foreign affairs; and Ri Son-gwon, chairman of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country, which handles relations with South Korea.
[Joong Ang Ilbo]

The Hankyoreh has an article discussing how President Moon is proposing a liaison office at Panmunjom:

During the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that is scheduled for Apr. 27, South Korean President Moon Jae-in reportedly intends to propose setting up and running a permanent deliberation and liaison office at Panmunjeom that would serve as an inter-Korean mission. Moon also reportedly means to propose establishing and operating inter-Korean joint committees to serve as permanent bodies for consultation in areas including politics, the military and the economy.On Apr. 24, multiple sources who are familiar with the preparations that are being laid for the inter-Korean summit said that South Korea would be proposing a liaison office at Panmunjeom during the summit. While it is too early to be certain, the sources said, an agreement was possible.  [Hankyoreh]

Here is a Arirang News video of Kim Jong-un crossing the Military Demarcation Line:

Here is a Yonhap wrap up of the Inter-Korean Summit:

Overall I would say Kim Jong-un continues to skillfully execute his charm offensive in an effort to convince the ROK populace to once again give the Kim regime billions of dollars in aid for likely little to nothing in return.  I guess we will see if President Trump will be as easily convinced as Moon Jae-in is that this time the Kim regime is different.

North Korea and South Korea Negotiating a Ban on Hostilities

It seems to me people are getting way ahead of themselves in regards to the upcoming Inter-Korean Summit ending the Korean War:

South and North Korea are discussing plans to announce an official end to the military conflict between the two countries that are still technically at war, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean official.

At next week’s summit between South Korea President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, the two neighbors may release a joint statement saying they will seek to ease military tension and to end confrontation, according to the report.  [Bloomberg]

Before people get all euphoric about the end of the Korean War it is important to realize South Korea cannot negotiate an end to the Korean War because they are not a signatory to the Armistice Agreement.  They will need China, the United States, and United Nations to agree to it as well.  So what exactly is being negotiated?:

“We are devising and discussing various ways to develop the security situation surrounding the peninsula into a permanent peace regime,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “One such way may be changing the armistice agreement to a peace treaty, and we are reviewing the possibility of it.”

But he said South Korea alone cannot decide on ending the war as the issue requires close discussion with countries directly involved, including North Korea.

Although the armistice was signed by North Korea, China and the United Nations Command, without South Korea, the official said it is undeniable South Korea is one of the countries directly involved.

“But the two Koreas alone cannot decide on signing a peace treaty, so we may have to seek a three-party or four-party agreement if necessary.”

He noted that when Moon’s special envoys visited Pyongyang in March, Kim himself said his country would not take military action against the South.

“In the joint declaration to be announced by Moon and Kim after the summit, we want to include an agreement to ban hostilities, although it is not known yet whether we can use the term ‘end of the war,'” the official said. “However, we expect to include such an agreement in some form of expression.”  [Korea Times]

That is the key term being negotiated, “a ban on hostilities”.   I would be surprised if President Trump signs up for a peace treaty ending the war without verifiable denuclearization by North Korea.  The Kim regime probably understands this as well.  I think what the Kim regime may be trying to do is at least get an agreement to ban hostilities in order to make it more difficult for President Trump to launch a strike when they inevitably break whatever agreement they sign up for.

If the past is any indication of the future, they will break the agreement after receiving the aid they want and blame the US or ROK for its failure for some imaginary reason.  The ban on hostilities could then possibly constrain the US President from responding militarily while the Kim regime continues to break the agreement.  If the US does strike anyway the Kim regime can then claim that the US broke the hostility agreement and thus justify them expanding their nuclear program and taking whatever hostilities they want.  In the minds of the Kim regime, they win either way.

President Moon Wants to Have A Joint Press Conference With Kim Jong-un

I would be surprised if Kim Jong-un agrees to this unless the questions are all pre-screened:

Seoul is seeking to broadcast the upcoming inter-Korean summit as well as a joint press conference between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un live, a top presidential aide said Tuesday.

A hotline between the two leaders is likely to be set up around Friday, and they may be able to have their first phone call early next week, he said.

Presidential chief of staff Im Jong-seok, who is leading the government’s inter-Korean summit preparation committee, said officials from the North and the South would discuss the broadcasting issue at a working-level meeting on protocol, security and media coverage, today.

“We want to broadcast the historic moment live,” Im said in a media briefing 10 days before the summit scheduled for April 27.   [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but could you imagine if questions were not pre-screened and journalists actually did their jobs and asked Kim Jong-un about the gulags or if he was going to apologize to the family members killed by his regime’s conventional and terrorist attacks?

South Korea Chooses Inter-Korean Summit Slogan

I think the slogan should be “Let’s Hope It Is Not More of the Same”:

South Korea has chosen “Peace, a new start” as a slogan for the upcoming inter-Korean summit, which will be held in late April, the presidential office said Sunday.

The slogan signifies the journey that the two Koreas will have to take to achieve global peace by holding their first summit in 11 years, and that the summit will also serve as a guide for summit talks between North Korea and the United States, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told reporters.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but does any ROK Heads have their own suggestions on what the Inter-Korean Summit slogan should be?

Kim-Moon Summit Date Set for April 27th at Panmunjom

The date for the planned summit between the ROK and North Korea is set:

Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon, center, speaks to reporters in Seoul before leaving for talks with North Korea to prepare for a summit between the leaders of the two rival nations.

North and South Korea will hold their first summit in more than a decade on April 27, the two sides said Thursday.

The date for the historic meeting between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was set during a high-level meeting on the northern side of the truce village of Panmunjom in the tense border area.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but no word yet on when President Trump will meet Kim Jong-un.  I suspect that date will be announced pending the outcome of this first summit, but they are supposed to meet sometime in May.

Tweet of the Day: Inter-Korean Delegation Meeting at Panmunjom

In 1987 North Korea Proposed Removing USFK and Creating a Confederation with South Korea

This may be a blueprint that we may see played again by North Korea in upcoming talks to meet their goal of separating the ROK from the US:

In the late 1980s, North Korea proposed creating a neutral state on the Korean Peninsula that could serve as a buffer zone in the region, declassified diplomatic documents showed Friday.

Then Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev delivered the North’s secret proposal to then U.S. President Ronald Reagan during their summit in Washington on Dec. 9, 1987, according to the documents disclosed by the foreign ministry.

Under the plan, the North wanted to create a federation-style republic consisting of two different governments representing the two Koreas and declare it as a neutral state that could serve as a regional buffer zone, the documents said.

The North also called for the two Koreas to sign a nonaggression treaty and replace the current armistice with a peace treaty, while suggesting the new entity would join the United Nations under a single name.

In addition, Pyongyang sought to scrap all agreements or treaties reached with third parties deemed to be running counter to their pursuit of reunification, a demand interpreted as a way to put pressure on Seoul to walk away from its mutual defense treaty with the U.S.

The North suggested the two Koreas reduce the number of their respective troops to fewer than 100,000 as a step toward building a peace mood and called for the withdrawal of any nuclear weapons and foreign troops from the peninsula, apparently targeting U.S. troops stationed in the South.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but this shows the Kim regime has long tried to separate the ROK from the US.  Their nuclear weapons program is just the latest attempt to make this happen.  Their nuclear weapons program that can threaten the US is being used as a bargaining chip to separate the US from South Korea and then seek a confederation on North Korean terms.