Category: China

I tend to agree with this analysis from Carl Schuster from Hawaii Pacific University:

But if U.S. forces were to enter North Korea, how China responds will depend largely on why, said Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain who now lectures at Hawaii Pacific University.

“Let’s say North Korea does something stupid like launches a missile that lands in South Korea or hits a U.S. base, or North Korea suddenly fires some artillery rounds across the DMZ and Seoul, if North Korea does that, China will have no problem with us pounding North Korea’s government into the dirt,” he said.

But there is a difference between aerial strikes and troops on the ground, and how the Chinese regime will respond to either is uncertain. At the very least, Beijing will seek international pressure to stop a U.S. offensive.

But while crossing the 38th parallel may be tolerated under some circumstances, taking the North Korean capital will not be, he said.

“If it looks like we are going to go north of Pyongyang, in their minds, that will be a red line.”

China may tolerate U.S. forces crossing the border to crush the North Korean army, he said, but he expects Beijing would send forces to occupy Pyongyang. North Korea’s capital will remain a no-go zone, he said.

“If North Korea initiates the conflict, China will watch it closely, prepare for North Korea’s defeat, but they won’t intervene if we don’t go to far.”  [The Epoch Times]

You can read much more at the link, but I have always believed there is a strong possibility the Chinese would move in and occupy Pyongyang if they feared the US or ROK were going to occupy North Korea.  This would not be a repeat though of the massive Chinese intervention into the Korean War where they played a significant combat role.  Instead I believe the Chinese will rapidly, but openly move into Pyongyang under the guise of being peacekeepers.

If the US or the ROK were to attack the Chinese troops they would be initiating combat against peacekeepers.  I think this will likely prevent any action against the Chinese troops and give Beijing a strong negotiating hand to settle the conflict in a way favorable to Chinese interests.

The Venerable Pomnyun Sunim is a Buddhist monk who has done aid work inside of North Korea.  He believes based off his experience and history of North Korea that China is not the answer to resolving the current nuclear issue:

Today, the North Korean leadership considers China to be the primary threat to regime survival. Despite paying lip service to their alliance, the Kim dynasty cannot afford to have any forces within the regime answer to foreign governments, especially China with its huge influence on North Korea’s viability.

This has always been the case. In August 1956, Kim Il Sung purged people he suspected of seeking to overthrow him with backing from the Chinese Communist Party. Soon afterward, Kim forced Mao Zedong to remove all remaining Chinese military presence — which had saved him during the Korean War — from North Korea.

His son, Kim Jong-il, was also quoted as saying that the Chinese should never be trusted. This underlying mistrust seems to be the reason behind the death of Jang Song-thaek and Kim Jong-nam, both of whom were suspected as China’s potential alternatives to the current leadership.

As such, allowing Chinese pressure, whether economic or political, to dictate the terms of North Korea’s national security goes against the country’s fundamental nature and self-interest of the current regime. A nation founded on anti-imperialism simply cannot allow an imperial power, even a nominally friendly one, to interfere in its own affairs.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but I would say that most people that closely follow the North Korean nuclear issue know that China is not the answer because the status quo is in their national interest.  However, before other options are executed the US government has a responsibility to try all diplomatic angles which working with the Chinese is one of those options even if expectations are low of it working.

With the ROK President ending his visit to China this week the timing of this breach of the South Korea’s Air Defense Identification Zone cannot be coincidental:

Five Chinese military aircraft, including bombers and fighter jets, breached Korea’s air defense identification zone (Kadiz) Monday morning without notice, prompting the South Korean Air Force to scramble its fighters in response.

The Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced that at around 10:10 a.m. Monday, five Chinese military planes were detected entering the Kadiz from southwest of Ieodo, underwater reefs located south of Jeju Island controlled by Korea that belong in waters that both Seoul and Beijing claim.

The Chinese aircraft were said to have included two nuclear-capable Xian H-6 bombers, two J-11 fighter jets and a Tu-154 reconnaissance plane.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but this is likely just another attempt to put pressure on the ROK to show Chinese unhappiness with the THAAD deployment.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the Provisional Government of Korea in Chongqing, China, on Dec. 16, 2017, where independence fighters fought against the Japanese occupation of Korea. (Yonhap)

I don’t think six people protesting in front of the Chinese embassy means much of anything:

Public sentiment toward China is worsening here after two Korean photojournalists were beaten by more than a dozen Chinese security guards during a trade event attended by President Moon Jae-in in Beijing, Thursday.

The incident came a day after a dispute about Moon being greeted by Chinese Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Kong Xuanyou upon Moon’s arrival at Beijing for a state visit.

Kong’s rank is disputed because China previously sent its vice foreign minister or upper-level officials to greet heads of state visiting the country.

Under the circumstances, the attack on Korean photographers agitated feelings here that China is still humiliating and mistreating Korea despite the agreement they reached in October to end the row over the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery deployed in Korea.

Citing a statement issued by the Korea Professional Photographers Association in protest of Thursday’s attack, the opposition accused China, Friday, of “committing violence against the Republic of Korea.”

“It should be made clear the pride of our people is severely bruised,” said Ahn Cheol-soo, chairman of the second-largest opposition People’s Party. “Korean diplomacy cannot hang its head in shame.”  (……)

Main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) Chairman Hong Joon-pyo echoed a similar view separately.

“The Chinese leader was not there after inviting a state guest. This is no more than paying tribute to a Chinese emperor,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but could you imagine what the reaction in South Korea would be if the Japanese government snubbed ROK leaders and beat down journalists?  I guarantee there would be more than six people protesting in front of the Japanese embassy.

My opinion is that South Koreans are more hesitant to protest China because they know the Chinese will respond.  The current THAAD retaliation and the how the Chinese government sent thugs to beatdown people in the streets of Seoul back in 2008, or the Great Garlic War of 2000 are perfect examples.  The Japanese on the other hand are easy targets because you can protest them, bash them, and put up statues everywhere and they do little to nothing in retaliation.

President Moon’s trip to China began with him receiving a cold shoulder from the Chinese:

The early part of President Moon Jae-in’s state visit to China this week was marred by Beijing’s mistreatment of the Korean leader, who is making his first visit to the country since taking office in May.

Upon arrival in Beijing, President Moon was greeted by Kong Xuanyou, Chinese assistant minister of foreign affairs and special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs.

During a state visit last year by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, China sent Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the airport to greet him. Considering such a precedence, Beijing should have sent a higher official than one of its foreign ministry’s assistant ministers to greet the Korean head of state.

Aside from the inappropriate airport greeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping was out of town on the day of Moon’s arrival. Xi was in China’s eastern city of Nanjing to preside over a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the 1937 Nanking Massacre by Japanese troops. Korean Ambassador to China Noh Young-min attended the event at the order of the President rather than greet him at the airport. The President reportedly told him it is more important for an ambassador to take part in a meaningful event in the host country. Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and other key figures in Chinese government were also absent from Beijing as they were also taking part in the Nanjing ceremony.

Cheong Wa Dae dismissed the media reports of Moon getting mistreated by China, but one cannot help getting the impression so far that China is not very enthusiastic about Moon’s visit.  [Korea Times]

Then there was the beatdown of a South Korean journalist by Chinese security that marred a business event that President Moon attended.  Then the Chinese refused to issue a joint statement about the lingering THAAD issue:

Calling the media reports “narrow-minded,” the state-run outlet reported on China’s stance over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

“The issue has become the biggest obstacle to the Bejing-Seoul relationship. The two governments partly reached an agreement on how to solve the problem, but some differences remain unsolved. The fact that the two sides will not issue a joint statement is a reflection of the differences.”

Lee Chang-ju, researcher for the Korea Logistics Forum, said the provocative editorial mirrors lingering domestic concerns in China. The Huanqiu Shibao has been outspoken in defending China’s national interest.

“If the two countries had issued a joint statement focusing on economic cooperation without mentioning THAAD, South Korea would have viewed it as a full-fledged solution to the THAAD, which China cannot accept,” Lee said  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but it is pretty clear that the Chinese government is going to continue to politically use THAAD as a wedge issue to separate the ROK from the United States.  The Chinese feel that that the US is trying to recreate the old USSR containment strategy against them and thus are taking actions to counter this.  They have made inroads within the Philippines at countering US influence there and are doing the something with the ROK using the phony THAAD dispute.

I guess these South Korean journalists forgot they are in a country without freedom of the press:

More than a dozen Chinese security guards beat and injured a South Korean photojournalist who was covering a business function attended by South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday hours before his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The incident occurred at a convention center in Beijing where a trade fair was held involving some 200 South Korean firms and 500 prospective Chinese buyers. Moon is currently on a four-day state visit to China that began Wednesday.

A group of 14 South Korean journalists was covering the event when the Chinese guards blocked them from following the president who was then visiting various booths of South Korean firms at the fair, according to pool reports.

The journalists protested the blockage and one of them, a photojournalist, was taken outside of the venue by some 15 Chinese security guards.

The journalist took a severe beating while being completely surrounded by the guards despite strong protests from his colleagues and South Korean officials, including those from the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.

The journalist was taken to a hospital after Moon’s medical staff examined him and said he required intensive treatment, according to Cheong Wa Dae pool reports.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I doubt anything is going to happen to these security guards.  The Chinese government had mobs go and beat down Koreans in the streets of Seoul before and nothing happened to them.  They were instead considered national heroes.

I would not be surprised if the assault was deliberate to send a message to South Korean journalists which the Chinese state run media has been criticizing over their coverage of President Moon’s visit to China.

The “grind down” strategy by China against the US Navy appears to be working judging by recent incidents:

In regard to China, in particular, neither the Obama nor the Trump administrations has shifted forces to the Pacific in sufficient enough numbers or capability, said James R. Holmes, professor of strategy at the US Naval War College.

“China has come to this commonsense realization, and understands that it can grind down adversary sea services just by being active in its ‘near seas,’ mainly the China seas,” said Holmes. “Imposing a swift ‘optempo’ on your opponent, meaning keeping him on the go all the time, wearies him over time. And while that hasn’t been a direct cause of this year’s mishaps, it does contribute to crew fatigue, cut down on training time, and thus exacerbate the factors our navy cited in its recent collision reports.”

In response, the Navy has two options, said Holmes. “We can build up our navy to a level where it can do all of these things without wearing out crews and hardware, or we can ‘pivot’ or ‘re-balance’ more of our forces to the Pacific theater.”

Holmes points out that while large, the 7th Fleet represents only a part of the US Navy. “If we can no longer overpower opponents in both the Atlantic and Pacific, then we need to make some hard choices about where to apply the bulk of our effort — and accept that that means accepting risk in the other theater.”  [CNN]

China to close main border bridge to North Korea from today, Japan's Yomiuri reports https://t.co/ONava6h9BF

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) November 24, 2017

This is officially the stupidest thing I have read all day:

China may have asked South Korea to build a wall to block a U.S. missile defense system from monitoring Chinese military movements.

The request from Beijing comes at a time when Seoul is preparing for a summit between President Moon Jae-in and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Munhwa Ilbo reported Thursday.

Multiple South Korean diplomatic sources are not sure how the request could be met, as the deployment of THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, was a joint decision with the United States.

“The Chinese side is demanding the installation of a barrier to block the THAAD radar, although this is not a decision to be made by [the South Korean] government,” the Munhwa’s sources said.

The South Korean newspaper’s sources also said the requests began as early as July, when China was engaged in unofficial sanctions against South Korean companies operating in the world’s second-largest economy.

On Wednesday Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his South Korean counterpart Kang Kyung-hwa in Beijing.  [UPI]

You can read more at the link, but first of all this journalist does not seem to understand what the THAAD radar is.  The THAAD’s AN/TPY-2 radar is not used to monitor military movements.  It is used to detect and track ballistic missiles.  Secondly if the South Korean’s built a wall in front of the radar then it would be useless for tracking North Korean ballistic missiles which defeats the point of having the THAAD there in the first place.

I wonder if the South Korean diplomats were able to keep a straight face or did they seriously consider this stupid idea?