Here is the latest theory on the so called real reason the Chinese are upset with the THAAD deployment to South Korea:
The second hypothesis is, I think, more convincing, and one where Beijing may have legitimate concern about the Gyeongsangbuk-do AN/TPY-2 radar upsetting U.S.-China strategic nuclear stability. Specifically, China may — correctly or incorrectly — fear that its nuclear second-strike capability is significantly degraded as a result of a third U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar going up specifically near the southern tip of the Korean peninsula.
To avoid the need for a massive nuclear build-up and to feel comfortable with its several hundred or so nuclear warheads for targeting, China needs to feel comfortable enough its intercontinental ballistic missiles can reliably penetrate U.S. antiballistic missile countermeasures. [The Diplomat]
It does not matter what radar is in Korea because the Ground-based Missile Defense (GMD) system fielded by the United States is not designed to shoot down complex ICBMs like the Chinese and Russians both have. It is designed to intercept non-complex ICBMs from rogue nations like North Korea and Iran.
Here is the part of the article where somebody let out the “good idea fairy”:
Li’s proposed solution for the United States was simple enough: the United States could “deploy its Green Pine radar or another radar with similar capabilities to guide the THAAD interceptors.” Li add that the “THAAD TPY-2 radar does not provide more capability to protect the ROK from the North Korean missile threat relative to a Green Pine-level radar since the TPY-2 radar’s detection range goes too far beyond North Korean territory.” It’s unclear also if a Green Pine radar would synergize with the existing AN/TPY-2s in Japan.
First of all Green Pine is not a US radar, it is an Israeli radar that was sold to the ROK. The ROK has two of these radars deployed on the peninsula. THAAD is not designed or tested to use anything but the AN/TPY-2 radar. If you want to know why the THAAD system uses the AN/TPY-2 radar doing a search on Youtube is a good place to begin. The Green Pine radar is designed to work with the Israeli Arrow system. These are two completely different systems with their own complex hardware and software that cannot be mix and matched.
The reason why China is opposed to THAAD is the simplest answer which is they are attempting to create a wedge in the US-ROK alliance. The Chinese feel that that the US is trying to recreate the old USSR containment strategy against them and thus are taking actions to counter this. They have made inroads within the Philippines at countering US influence there are are now focusing on the ROK. With a left wing politician expected to be elected in a couple of months in the ROK we will see if this strategy works for the Chinese.
The viewpoint in this article is something that I have been saying for months that the Chinese are using the THAAD deployment to drive a wedge in the US-ROK alliance. They have had success in the Philippines with this strategy and have been trying to replicate it in South Korea. We will see if the strategy works when a ROK left wing politician likely gets elected May to the Presidency:
Chinese opposition to South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD missile defense system is less about missiles than about an ongoing effort to weaken—and ideally demolish—the United States’ network of formal and informal alliances in Asia that has underpinned the regional order for the last seventy years.
The THAAD controversy that heated up in 2016 once deployment became likely displays a familiar Chinese modus operandi: First, pick a fight over an allegedly offensive act. Next, follow up with vitriol and veiled threats, and then inflict economic pressure—while making bland denials or declaring it the spontaneous reaction of the righteously offended Chinese people. [The National Interest]
Thehe retaliation by China against the ROK is extremely petty and not something an aspiring super-power should be doing:
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, right, talks with USFK Commander Gen. Vincent K. Brooks in the truce village of Panmunjom on Friday while a North Korean soldier outside the building takes photos of them through a window. Tillerson began his two-day trip to South Korea on Friday, flying from Japan. [YONHAP]U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Friday that China’s economic retaliation against South Korea for its decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) U.S. antimissile system was “inappropriate and troubling,” and that Washington asks Beijing to “refrain from such action.”Although the U.S. “acknowledges” China’s opposition, Tillerson urged China to “address the threat that makes Thaad necessary.”
The statement was Tillerson’s first time personally addressing the issue in public. It was made during a 20-minute joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Affairs Minister Yun Byung-se in central Seoul, ahead of his closed-door meeting with Yun.
Tillerson touched down at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, 70 miles south of the capital, Friday morning for his second of three-leg trip in Asia. He had flown in from Tokyo, where he had talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, among others. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
This THAAD nonsense from China is getting stupider and stupider:
Chinese police are looking for a woman who has posted more than 100 videos of herself vandalizing products in a Lotte Mart in retaliation against the U.S. deployment of missile defense system in South Korea.
In the video, the woman, who appear to be in her 20s, crushing the instant noodle cups, stealing snacks, giving her middle finger in an obscene gesture at the main gate and drinking beverages before putting the containers back on the shelf.
These videos began to appear one after another on Chinese portal Sohu from early this month, and have gone viral. [Korea Times]
Here is the latest retaliation from the Chinese for the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea:
A notice instructing Chinese tourists how to fill in disembarkation cards is posted Friday in the arrival hall of Incheon International Airport. China’s government ordered travel agencies to stop selling packaged tours to Korea starting March 15 as retaliation for the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system in Korea. [YONHAP]China’s government ordered travel agencies to stop selling tour packages to Korea starting March 15 in the latest retaliation against the deployment of a U.S.-operated anti-missile system in Korea.
Under the ban, all travel agencies in China will be barred from selling travel packages to Korea, both group and individual, from March 15, a move certain to harm the local tourism industry.
It was reported that the China National Tourist Office summoned executives of travel agencies Thursday to a meeting at which the government instructed them to halt all tour packages to Korea to rebuff Seoul’s decision last July to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) anti-missile system. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
A total of six North Korean soldiers armed with weapons crossed into China, prompting Chinese authorities to track their whereabouts, a source said Thursday.
The North Korean soldiers deserted their posts along the border area with China and illegally entered Changbai County in the country’s northeastern province of Jilin on Tuesday, according to the source.
“Chinese authorities notified residents to be on alert and immediately report their location if they are observed,” the source added. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
The hypocrisy is quite stunning from the Chinese government considering they are criticizing the ROK for the deployment of the THAAD system for being against Chinese security interests while completely ignoring ROK security interests. If it wasn’t for the Chinese backing of their client state North Korea that has allowed them to pursue missiles and nuclear weapons to threaten the ROK with the THAAD deployment would not be necessary:
As Korea speeds along with the deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system by sealing a land deal with Lotte Group to acquire a golf course in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang, Beijing is threatening diplomatic, economic and possibly military retaliation.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said through a press briefing Tuesday that Beijing is “firmly opposed to and strongly dissatisfied with the fact that” Seoul is working with Washington to accelerate the deployment process of a Thaad battery and “ignoring China’s interests and concerns.”
He added Beijing will “resolutely take necessary actions to safeguard its own security interests,” without specifying what measures it will take.
The Korean Ministry of National Defense earlier that day signed a deal with Lotte International, the operator of the Lotte Skyhill Seongju Country Club, to swap the golf course with government land in Namyangju, Gyeonggi. Lotte’s board of directors agreed on the land swap deal on Monday, after much delay. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Here is where the Chinese threaten the ROK militarily:
Chinese military expert Song Zhongping, a former officer of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Second Artillery Corps, told the state-affiliated Global Times Wednesday that once the Thaad system is deployed to Korea, “Seongju County will appear on the list of the PLA missile system’s strike targets.”
So is the Chinese threatening the ROK with a military strike in support of North Korea because that is what this system is in the ROK to defend against.
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